Establishment and Validation of Prognostic Nomograms for Endemic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to establish an effective prognostic nomogram with or without plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA (EBV DNA) for nondisseminated nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). METHODS: The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 4630 patients who underwent radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from 2007 to 2009. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve and were compared with EBV DNA and the current staging system. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and a prospective cohort study on 1819 patients consecutively enrolled from 2011 to 2012 at the same institution. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Independent factors derived from multivariable analysis of the primary cohort to predict recurrence were age, sex, body mass index (BMI), T stage, N stage, plasma EBV DNA, pretreatment high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and hemoglobin level (HGB), which were all assembled into the nomogram with (nomogram B) or without EBV DNA (nomogram A). The calibration curve for the probability of recurrence showed that the nomogram-based predictions were in good agreement with actual observations. The C-index of nomogram B for predicting recurrence was 0.728 (P < .001), which was statistically higher than the C-index values for nomogram A (0.690), EBV DNA (0.680), and the current staging system (0.609). The C-index of nomogram B (0.730) and nomogram A (0.681) remained higher for predicting recurrence among patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (P < .001). The results were confirmed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed nomogram with or without plasma EBV DNA resulted in more accurate prognostic prediction for NPC patients.

Elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels predict decreased survival for nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients in the intensity-modulated radiotherapy era.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to clarify the prognostic utility of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients in the Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT) era. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this observational study, 1,589 non-metastatic NPC patients treated with IMRT were recruited. Blood samples were collected before treatment for examination of hs-CRP levels. We evaluated the association of pretreatment hs-CRP levels with overall survival rate (OS), progression free survival rate (PFS), locoregional relapse free survival rate (LRFS) and distant metastasis free survival rate (DMFS). RESULTS: Baseline hs-CRP levels were correlated with sex, clinical stage, body mass index, smoking status, and EBV DNA level. Multivariate analysis showed that hs-CRP had significant association with OS (HR:1.723; 95%CI:1.238-2.398; p = 0.001), PFS (HR:1.621; 95%CI:1.273-2.064; p<0.001) and DMFS (HR:1.879; 95%CI:1.394-2.531; p<0.001). In subgroups such as advanced-stage group, low EBV DNA group and high EBV DNA group, elevated hs-CRP levels still predicted poor clinical outcomes. Furthermore, in patients with chronic HBV infection, decreased 4-year survival was observed in the cohort of high hs-CRP levels, with 87.4% vs. 94.9% (p = 0.023) for OS, 65.2% vs. 90.8% (p<0.001) for PFS, and 67.6% vs. 95.0% (p<0.001) for DMFS. A similar finding was observed for patients with cardiovascular disease, with 79.1% vs. 90.2% (p = 0.020) for PFS, and 71.4% vs. 97.6% (p = 0.002) for DMFS. CONCLUSION: Elevated serum hs-CRP levels were correlated with poor survival for NPC patients in the IMRT era, playing a complementary role to TNM stage and EBV DNA. In addition, elevated hs-CRP level was still an effective indicator for patients with chronic HBV infection and cardiovascular disease.

High-sensitivity C-reactive protein complements plasma Epstein-Barr virus deoxyribonucleic acid prognostication in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a large-scale retrospective and prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effects of combining the assessment of circulating high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) with that of Epstein-Barr virus DNA (EBV DNA) in the pretherapy prognostication of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three independent cohorts of NPC patients (training set of n=3113, internal validation set of n=1556, and prospective validation set of n=1668) were studied. Determinants of disease-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival, and overall survival were assessed by multivariate analysis. Hazard ratios and survival probabilities of the patient groups, segregated by clinical stage (T1-2N0-1M0, T3-4N0-1M0, T1-2N2-3M0, and T3-4N2-3M0) and EBV DNA load (low or high) alone, and also according to hs-CRP level (low or high), were compared. RESULTS: Elevated hs-CRP and EBV DNA levels were significantly correlated with poor disease-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival, and overall survival in both the training and validation sets. Associations were similar and remained significant after excluding patients with cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and chronic hepatitis B. Patients with advanced-stage disease were segregated by high EBV DNA levels and high hs-CRP level into a poorest-risk group, and participants with either high EBV DNA but low hs-CRP level or high hs-CRP but low EBV DNA values had poorer survival compared with the bottom values for both biomarkers. These findings demonstrate a significant improvement in the prognostic ability of conventional advanced NPC staging. CONCLUSION: Baseline plasma EBV DNA and serum hs-CRP levels were significantly correlated with survival in NPC patients. The combined interpretation of EBV DNA with hs-CRP levels led to refinement of the risks for the patient subsets, with improved risk discrimination in patients with advanced-stage disease.