Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods.

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.

Polyadic Entropy, Synergy and Redundancy among Statistically Independent Processes in Nonlinear Statistical Physics with Microphysical Codependence.

The information shared among observables representing processes of interest is traditionally evaluated in terms of macroscale measures characterizing aggregate properties of the underlying processes and their interactions. Traditional information measures are grounded on the assumption that the observable represents a memoryless process without any interaction among microstates. Generalized entropy measures have been formulated in non-extensive statistical mechanics aiming to take microphysical codependence into account in entropy quantification. By taking them into consideration when formulating information measures, the question is raised on whether and if so how much information permeates across scales to impact on the macroscale information measures. The present study investigates and quantifies the emergence of macroscale information from microscale codependence among microphysics. In order to isolate the information emergence coming solely from the nonlinearly interacting microphysics, redundancy and synergy are evaluated among macroscale variables that are statistically independent from each other but not necessarily so within their own microphysics. Synergistic and redundant information are found when microphysical interactions take place, even if the statistical distributions are factorable. These findings stress the added value of nonlinear statistical physics to information theory in coevolutionary systems.

Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.

Increasing river floods: fiction or reality?

There has been a surprisingly large number of major floods in the last years around the world, which suggests that floods may have increased and will continue to increase in the next decades. However, the realism of such changes is still hotly discussed in the literature. This overview article examines whether floods have changed in the past and explores the driving processes of such changes in the atmosphere, the catchments and the river system based on examples from Europe. Methods are reviewed for assessing whether floods may increase in the future. Accounting for feedbacks within the human-water system is important when assessing flood changes over lead times of decades or centuries. It is argued that an integrated flood risk management approach is needed for dealing with future flood risk with a focus on reducing the vulnerability of the societal system. WIREs Water 2015, 2:329-344. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1079 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Run Watchers: Automatic Simulation-Based Decision Support in Flood Management.

In this paper, we introduce a simulation-based approach to design protection plans for flood events. Existing solutions require a lot of computation time for an exhaustive search, or demand for a time-consuming expert supervision and steering. We present a faster alternative based on the automated control of multiple parallel simulation runs. Run Watchers are dedicated system components authorized to monitor simulation runs, terminate them, and start new runs originating from existing ones according to domain-specific rules. This approach allows for a more efficient traversal of the search space and overall performance improvements due to a re-use of simulated states and early termination of failed runs. In the course of search, Run Watchers generate large and complex decision trees. We visualize the entire set of decisions made by Run Watchers using interactive, clustered timelines. In addition, we present visualizations to explain the resulting response plans. Run Watchers automatically generate storyboards to convey plan details and to justify the underlying decisions, including those which leave particular buildings unprotected. We evaluate our solution with domain experts.