Nutrient Improvements in Chesapeake Bay: Direct Effect of Load Reductions and Implications for Coastal Management.

In Chesapeake Bay in the United States, decades of management efforts have resulted in modest reductions of nutrient loads from the watershed, but the corresponding improvements in estuarine water quality have not consistently followed. Generalized additive models were used to directly link river flows and nutrient loads from the watershed to nutrient trends in the estuary on a station-by-station basis, which allowed for identification of exactly when and where responses are happening. Results show that Chesapeake Bay's total nitrogen and total phosphorus conditions are mostly improving after accounting for variation in freshwater flow. Almost all of these improving nutrient concentrations in the estuary can be explained by reductions in watershed loads entering through 16 rivers and 145 nearby point sources, with the nearby point source reductions being slightly more effective at explaining estuarine nutrient trends. Overall, these two major types of loads from multiple locations across the watershed are together necessary and responsible for the improving estuarine nutrient conditions, a finding that is highly relevant to managing valuable estuarine resources worldwide.

A Comparison of Different Statistical Methods for Addressing Censored Left Data in Temporal Trends Analysis of Pyrethroids in a California Stream.

This study compared four different statistical methods, involving six estimation procedures, for addressing censored left data in measuring temporal trends of eight different pyrethroids measured in sediment from a 10-year data set in a residential California stream (Pleasant Grove Creek). The statistical methods used were: the Kaplan-Meier (km) method; the robust regression on order statistics (ros using normal and log normal distributions rosln); the maximum likelihood estimation (mlen using normal and log normal distributions mleln); and a substitution method (sub) using ½ the detection limit. For five of the eight pyrethroids (bifenthrin, cyfluthrin, cypermethrin, lambda-cyhalothrin, and permethrin), the six statistical methods generally agree, with one exception, that the data set exhibit significant declining trends. In the case of bifenthrin, the slight disagreement among statistical methods only occurred for the mleln estimate that did not show a significant declining trend, whereas the other five methods did. For deltamethrin, esfenvalerate, and fenpropathrin, all six statistical methods were in agreement showing no significant trends. Possible reasons for declining sediment concentrations of pyrethroids in Pleasant Grove Creek are urban label changes effective in 2012-2015 that reduced residential use, variable annual rainfall, and more responsible homeowner use based on outreach/education programs.

Seasonal to Inter-Annual Variability of Primary Production in Chesapeake Bay: Prospects to Reverse Eutrophication and Change Trophic Classification.

Estuarine-coastal ecosystems are rich areas of the global ocean with elevated rates of organic matter production supporting major fisheries. Net and gross primary production (NPP, GPP) are essential properties of these ecosystems, characterized by high spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variability associated with climatic effects on hydrology. Over 20 years ago, Nixon defined the trophic classification of marine ecosystems based on annual phytoplankton primary production (APPP), with categories ranging from "oligotrophic" to "hypertrophic". Source data consisting of shipboard measurements of NPP and GPP from 1982 to 2004 for Chesapeake Bay in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States supported estimates of APPP from 300 to 500 g C m-2 yr-1, corresponding to "eutrophic" to "hypertrophic" categories. Here, we developed generalized additive models (GAM) to interpolate the limited spatio-temporal resolution of source data. Principal goals were: (1) to develop predictive models of NPP and GPP calibrated to source data (1982 to 2004); (2) to apply the models to historical (1960s, 1970s) and monitoring (1985 to 2015) data with adjustments for nutrient loadings and climatic effects; (3) to estimate APPP from model predictions of NPP; (4) to test effects of simulated reductions of phytoplankton biomass or nutrient loadings on trophic classification based on APPP. Simulated 40% decreases of euphotic-layer chl-a or TN and NO2 + NO3 loadings led to decreasing APPP sufficient to change trophic classification from "eutrophic' to "mesotrophic" for oligohaline (OH) and polyhaline (PH) salinity zones, and from "hypertrophic" to "eutrophic" for the mesohaline (MH) salinity zone of the bay. These findings show that improved water quality is attainable with sustained reversal of nutrient over-enrichment sufficient to decrease phytoplankton biomass and APPP.

Long-term trends, current status, and transitions of water quality in Chesapeake Bay.

Coincident climatic and human effects strongly influence water-quality properties in estuarine-coastal ecosystems around the world. Time-series data for a number of ecosystems reveal high spatio-temporal variability superimposed on secular trends traceable to nutrient over-enrichment. In this paper, we present new analyses of long-term data for Chesapeake Bay directed at several goals: (1) to distinguish trends from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic effects; (2) to assess long-term trends of water-quality properties reflecting degradation and recovery; (3) to propose numerical water-quality criteria as targets for restoration; (4) to assess progress toward attainment of these targets. The bay has experienced multiple impairments associated with nutrient over-enrichment since World War II, e.g., low dissolved oxygen (DO), decreased water clarity, and harmful algal blooms (HAB). Anthropogenic eutrophication has been expressed as increased chlorophyll-a (chl-a) driven by accelerated nutrient loading from 1945 to 1980. Management intervention led to decreased loading thereafter, but deleterious symptoms of excess nutrients persist. Climatic effects exemplified by irregular "dry" and "wet" periods in the last 30+ years largely explain high inter-annual variability of water-quality properties, requiring adjustments to resolve long-term trends. Here, we extend these analyses at a finer temporal scale to six decades of chl-a, Secchi depth, and nitrite plus nitrate (NO2 + NO3) data to support trend analyses and the development of numerical water-quality criteria. The proposed criteria build on a conceptual model emphasizing the need to distinguish climatic and human effects in gauging progress to reverse eutrophication in estuarine-coastal ecosystems.

Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay.

Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km(2) watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945-1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981-2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries.

Enumerating sparse organisms in ships' ballast water: why counting to 10 is not so easy.

To reduce ballast water-borne aquatic invasions worldwide, the International Maritime Organization and United States Coast Guard have each proposed discharge standards specifying maximum concentrations of living biota that may be released in ships' ballast water (BW), but these regulations still lack guidance for standardized type approval and compliance testing of treatment systems. Verifying whether BW meets a discharge standard poses significant challenges. Properly treated BW will contain extremely sparse numbers of live organisms, and robust estimates of rare events require extensive sampling efforts. A balance of analytical rigor and practicality is essential to determine the volume of BW that can be reasonably sampled and processed, yet yield accurate live counts. We applied statistical modeling to a range of sample volumes, plankton concentrations, and regulatory scenarios (i.e., levels of type I and type II errors), and calculated the statistical power of each combination to detect noncompliant discharge concentrations. The model expressly addresses the roles of sampling error, BW volume, and burden of proof on the detection of noncompliant discharges in order to establish a rigorous lower limit of sampling volume. The potential effects of recovery errors (i.e., incomplete recovery and detection of live biota) in relation to sample volume are also discussed.

Analysis of historical salinity and boron surface water monitoring data from the San Joaquin River watershed: 1985-2002.

The objectives of this study were to use both parametric and probabilistic approaches to analyze water column concentrations of both salinity (24,845 measurements) and boron (13,028 measurements) from numerous investigations conducted in the San Joaquin River watershed from 1985 to 2002 to assess spatial and temporal trends and determine the probability of exceeding regulatory targets during both the irrigation and non-irrigation season. Salinity and boron concentrations from 26 mainstem and tributary sites were highly correlated based on this 17 yr data set. Generally, salinity and boron concentrations were higher in winter/spring and lower in summer/fall; higher concentrations of both constituents were reported in tributary sites when compared with the mainstem San Joaquin River. Approximately half the sites showed showed a negative correlation between flow and both constituents. Concentrations of both salinity and boron were somewhat variable with flow conditions for the other sites. Both linear and curvilinear trends were inconsistent over time. The salinity 90th centiles for the 26 sites ranged from 143 to 7,559 micros cm(-1) with the highest 90th centiles in tributary sites. Probabilistic analysis of salinity 90th centiles by year for five sites with extensive data showed a significant decrease over time at two sites and no significant trend for the other three sites. The probability of exceeding the salinity targets during either the irrigation (700 microm cm(-1)) or non-irrigation (1,000 micros cm(-1)) season was greater than 19% for all but three sites. The boron 90th centiles for the 26 sites ranged from 0.41 to 13.6 mg L(-1) with the highest 90th centiles from tributary sites. Probabilistic analysis of the boron 90th centile values by year for the five sites with the most extensive data showed a significant decrease over time at two sites and no significant trend for the other three sites. The probability of exceeding the boron target during the irrigation season (0.80 mg L(-1)) and non-irrigation (1.0 mg L(-1)) season was greater that 18% for all but three sites. Results from this analysis have important regulatory implications as targets for both salinity and boron are frequently exceeded at various sites in the San Joaquin River watershed.

Verification of mid-ocean ballast water exchange using naturally occurring coastal tracers.

We examined methods for verifying whether or not ships have performed mid-ocean ballast water exchange (BWE) on four commercial vessels operating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. During BWE, a ship replaces the coastal water in its ballast tanks with water drawn from the open ocean, which is considered to harbor fewer organisms capable of establishing in coastal environments. We measured concentrations of several naturally occurring chemical tracers (salinity, six trace elements, colored dissolved organic matter fluorescence and radium isotopes) along ocean transects and in ballast tanks subjected to varying degrees of BWE (0-99%). Many coastal tracers showed significant concentration changes due to BWE, and our ability to detect differences between exchanged and unexchanged ballast tanks was greatest under multivariate analysis. An expanded dataset, which includes additional geographic regions, is now needed to test the generality of our results.

Development of a provisional physical habitat index for Maryland freshwater streams.

Provisional physical habitat indices were developed and validated for Maryland Coastal and Non-Coastal Plain streams using variables (commonly called metrics) that best discriminated reference and degraded conditions based on biological, chemical and land use data from the 1994-97 Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS). These habitat indices contained variables that described structural, hydrological, vegetative and aesthetic components of stream habitat. Variables with the best discriminatory power for Coastal Plain streams were: instream habitat, velocity/depth diversity, pool/glide/eddy quality, embeddedness, maximum depth and aesthetic rating. Physical habitat variables with the best discriminatory power for Non-Coastal Plain sites were: instream habitat, velocity/depth diversity, riffle/run quality, embeddedness, number of rootwads and aesthetic rating. The overall classification efficiency for index validation was 76% for both indices pooled over both strata. Scaled physical habitat index values (0-100) for both strata identified nearly twice as many good sites (31%) as very poor sites (16%). More than half the Maryland sites were in the poor to fair range (53%).

Modeling possible cooling-water intake system impacts on Ohio River fish populations.

To assess the possible impacts caused by cooling-water intake system entrainment and impingement losses, populations of six target fish species near power plants on the Ohio River were modeled. A Leslie matrix model was constructed to allow an evaluation of bluegill, freshwater drum, emerald shiner, gizzard shad, sauger, and white bass populations within five river pools. Site-specific information on fish abundance and length-frequency distribution was obtained from long-term Ohio River Ecological Research Program and Ohio River Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) electrofishing monitoring programs. Entrainment and impingement data were obtained from 316(b) demonstrations previously completed at eight Ohio River power plants. The model was first run under a scenario representative of current conditions, which included fish losses due to entrainment and impingement. The model was then rerun with these losses added back into the populations, representative of what would happen if all entrainment and impingement losses were eliminated. The model was run to represent a 50-year time period, which is a typical life span for an Ohio River coal-fired power plant. Percent changes between populations modeled with and without entrainment and impingement losses in each pool were compared to the mean interannual coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of normal fish population variability. In 6 of the 22 scenarios of fish species and river pools that were evaluated (6 species x 5 river pools, minus 8 species/river pool combinations that could not be evaluated due to insufficient fish data), the projected fish population change was greater than the expected variability of the existing fish population, indicating a possible adverse environmental impact. Given the number of other variables affecting fish populations and the conservative modeling approach, which assumed 100% mortality for all entrained fish and eggs, it was concluded that the likelihood of impact was by no means assured, even in these six cases. It was concluded that in most cases, current entrainment and impingement losses at six Ohio River power plants have little or no effect at the population level.