The effects of oxygenation on acute vasodilator challenge in pulmonary arterial hypertension.

Identification of long-term calcium channel blocker (CCB) responders with acute vasodilator challenge is critical in the evaluation of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension. Currently there is no standardized approach for use of supplemental oxygen during acute vasodilator challenge. In this retrospective analysis of patients identified as acute vasoresponders, treated with CCBs, all patients had hemodynamic measurements in three steps: (1) at baseline; (2) with 100% fractional inspired oxygen; and (3) with 100% fractional inspired oxygen plus inhaled nitric oxide (iNO). Those meeting the definition of acute vasoresponsiveness only after first normalizing for the effects of oxygen in step 2 were labeled "iNO Responders." Those who met the definition of acute vasoresponsiveness from a combination of the effects of 100% FiO2 and iNO were labeled "oxygen responders." Survival, hospitalization for decompensated right heart failure, duration of CCB monotherapy, and functional data were collected. iNO responders, when compared to oxygen responders, had superior survival (100% vs. 50.1% 5-year survival, respectively), fewer hospitalizations for acute decompensated right heart failure (0% vs. 30.4% at 1 year, respectively), longer duration of CCB monotherapy (80% vs. 52% at 1 year, respectively), and superior 6-min walk distance. Current guidelines for acute vasodilator testing do not standardize oxygen coadministration with iNO. This study demonstrates that adjusting for the effects of supplemental oxygen before assessing for acute vasoresponsiveness identifies a cohort with superior functional status, tolerance of CCB monotherapy, and survival while on long-term CCB therapy.

Extraneous Load, Patient Census, and Patient Acuity Correlate With Cognitive Load During ICU Rounds.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive load theory asserts that learning and performance degrade when cognitive load exceeds working memory capacity. This is particularly relevant in the learning environment of ICU rounds, when multidisciplinary providers integrate complex decision-making and teaching in a noisy, high-stress environment prone to cognitive distractions. RESEARCH QUESTION: What features of ICU rounds correlate with high provider cognitive load? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This was an observational, multisite study of multidisciplinary providers during ICU rounds. Investigators recorded rounding characteristics and hourly extraneous cognitive load events during rounds (defined as distractions, episodes of split-attention or repetition, and deviations from standard communication format). After rounds, investigators measured each provider's cognitive load using the provider task load (PTL), an instrument derived from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Task Load Index survey that assesses perceived workload associated with complex tasks. Relationships between rounding characteristics, extraneous load, and PTL score were evaluated using mixed-effects modeling. RESULTS: A total of 76 providers were observed during 32 rounds from December 2020 to May 2021. The mean rounding census ± SD was 12.5 ± 2.9 patients. The mean rounding time ± SD was 2 h 17 min ± 49 min. The mean extraneous load ± SD was 20.5 ± 4.5 events per hour, or one event every 2 min 51 s. This included 8.6 ± 3.4 distractions, 8.2 ± 4.2 communication deviations, 1.9 ± 1.4 repetitions, and 1.8 ± 1.3 episodes of split-attention per hour. Controlling for covariates, the hourly extraneous load events, number of new patients, and number of higher acuity patients were each associated with increased PTL score (slope, 2.40; 95% CI, 0.76-4.04; slope, 5.23; 95% CI, 2.02-8.43; slope, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.34-5.35, respectively). INTERPRETATION: Increased extraneous load, new patients, and patient acuity were associated with higher cognitive load during ICU rounds. These results can help direct how the ICU rounding structure may be modified to reduce workload and optimize provider learning and performance.

Multifaceted immune dysregulation characterizes individuals at-risk for rheumatoid arthritis.

Molecular markers of autoimmunity, such as antibodies to citrullinated protein antigens (ACPA), are detectable prior to inflammatory arthritis (IA) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and may define a state that is 'at-risk' for future RA. Here we present a cross-sectional comparative analysis among three groups that include ACPA positive individuals without IA (At-Risk), ACPA negative individuals and individuals with early, ACPA positive clinical RA (Early RA). Differential methylation analysis among the groups identifies non-specific dysregulation in peripheral B, memory and naïve T cells in At-Risk participants, with more specific immunological pathway abnormalities in Early RA. Tetramer studies show increased abundance of T cells recognizing citrullinated (cit) epitopes in At-Risk participants, including expansion of T cells reactive to citrullinated cartilage intermediate layer protein I (cit-CILP); these T cells have Th1, Th17, and T stem cell memory-like phenotypes. Antibody-antigen array analyses show that antibodies targeting cit-clusterin, cit-fibrinogen and cit-histone H4 are elevated in At-Risk and Early RA participants, with the highest levels of antibodies detected in those with Early RA. These findings indicate that an ACPA positive at-risk state is associated with multifaceted immune dysregulation that may represent a potential opportunity for targeted intervention.

Mild Cognitive Impairment is Associated with Poorer Everyday Decision Making.

BACKGROUND: Older adults are faced with many unique and highly consequential decisions such as those related to finances, healthcare, and everyday functioning (e.g., driving cessation). Given the significant impact of these decisions on independence, wellbeing, and safety, an understanding of how cognitive impairment may impact decision making in older age is important. OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) on responses to a modified version of the Short Portable Assessment of Capacity for Everyday Decision making (SPACED). METHODS: Participants were community-dwelling, actively driving older adults (N = 301; M age = 77.1 years, SD = 5.1; 69.4% with a college degree or higher; 51.2% female; 95.3% White) enrolled in the Advancing Understanding of Transportation Options (AUTO) study. A generalized linear model adjusted for age, education, sex, randomization group, cognitive assessment method, and study site was used to examine the relationship between MCI status and decision making. RESULTS: MCI status was associated with poorer decision making; participants with MCI missed an average of 2.17 times more points on the SPACED than those without MCI (adjusted mean ratio: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.02, 4.61, p = 0.044). CONCLUSION: This finding supports the idea that older adults with MCI exhibit poorer decision-making abilities than cognitively normal older adults. It also suggests that older adults with MCI may exhibit poorer decision making across a wide range of decision contexts.

Practices, knowledge, and concerns for out-of-home firearm storage among those with access to firearms: results from a survey in two states.

BACKGROUND: Temporary, voluntary storage of firearms away from the home is a recommended option for individuals with risk of suicide, but it may also be used in other situations (e.g., long trips). Prior work has explored the availability of storage options and the views of storage locations. Little is known about out-of-home storage practices among those who live in homes with firearms (including owners). METHODS: We surveyed English-speaking adults (18 or older) in two states (Colorado and Washington) living in a home with a firearm (June-July 2021). RESULTS: Among the final sample of 1029, most respondents were white (88.1%) and non-Hispanic (85.0%); half were female (50.8%), and the most common age group was ages 35-44 (25.5%). Just over one quarter (27.3%) of respondents indicated they had stored a firearm away from their home/car/garage in the last 5 years. The place most respondents said they were somewhat or very likely to consider was at a family members home (62.7%) or at a self-storage facility (52.5%). CONCLUSION: Out-of-home firearm storage is a relatively common practice and endorsed by many gun-owners, suggesting out-of-home storage is feasible for firearm owners as an approach to suicide prevention.

Predictors of adverse outcomes in aged patients critically ill with COVID-19: a retrospective study.

Older patients represent an inordinate proportion of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and ICU mortality associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this retrospective cohort study, we examine 198 patients, aged 18 years or older, admitted to the ICU from March to June 2020. We aim to understand the relationships between age, number of comorbidities, and independent living prior to admission on outcomes of mortality, length of stay, renal failure, respiratory failure, and shock. In this cohort, we find that overall mortality was associated with respiratory failure severity (for every decrease of P:F by 50, odds ratio (OR) 2.98 (1.65-6.08)), acute renal failure (OR 4.61 (1.2-19.7)), and age 65 or greater (OR: 3.7 (1.86-7.36)). Surprisingly, increasing age was associated with less severe respiratory failure (R = 0.22, p < 0.01). When adjusting for pre-existing chronic kidney disease, age was not associated with development of acute kidney injury (OR: 1.01 (0.99-1.03)). While chronologic age is associated with mortality, it is not associated independently with severe end organ damage. This is consistent with growing evidence suggesting that a complex interplay between multimorbidity, immunosenescence, and physiologic age is primarily responsible for the vulnerability to COVID-19.

A Web-Based Decision Aid for Caregivers of Persons With Dementia With Firearm Access (Safe at Home Study): Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Firearm safety among individuals with Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD) is an underdiscussed and underresearched concern in the United States, especially given the growing population of community-dwelling adults with ADRD. The "Safety in Dementia" (SiD) web-based decision aid was developed to support caregivers in addressing firearm access; the efficacy of SiD is unknown. OBJECTIVE: Through the SiD decision aid, the Safe at Home (S@H) study aims to support caregivers in making decisions about home safety that align with their goals and values, and behaviors regarding firearm access for persons with ADRD and firearm access. METHODS: The S@H study is a 2-armed randomized controlled trial to test the effect of the SiD decision aid on caregivers of community-dwelling adults with ADRD who have firearm access. S@H aims to recruit 500 ADRD caregivers (age ≥18 years, fluent in English or Spanish, and in the United States) through online or social media advertisements and through relevant organizations. Participants are randomized to view SiD or a control website at their own pace; all participants complete web-based questionnaires at baseline, 2 weeks, 2 months, and 6 months. The primary outcome is immediate preparation for decision-making; secondary outcomes include longitudinal decision outcomes and self-reported modifications to firearm access. The relative reach and effectiveness of each recruitment method (online/social media and through relevant organizations) will be assessed by examining differences in caregiver participation, retention rates, and relative cost. RESULTS: The study enrollment began in May 2022. As of December 2022, a total of 117 participants had enrolled. CONCLUSIONS: The S@H study is the first randomized trial of a firearm safety decision aid for ADRD caregivers. The results from this study will inform how best to support caregivers in decision-making regarding firearm safety. Further, results may guide approaches for recruiting caregivers and for dissemination of resources. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05173922; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05173922. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/43702.

Relationship Between a State-Directed Lockdown on Non-COVID-19-related ICU Admissions and Mortality in a Multicenter Colorado Healthcare System.

Colorado issued a month long statewide lockdown on March 26, 2020, during the initial surge of the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this mandate on non-COVID-19 ICU admission rates and outcomes is unclear. DESIGN: We performed a retrospective analysis of all medical ICU admissions in the University of Colorado Health System in four predefined periods: 1) prepandemic (2 mo prior to lockdown period 1); 2) mandated lockdown from March 26 to April 26, 2020 (period 2); 3) between surges (period 3); and 4) nonmandated lockdown surge (between November 1, 2020, and March 31, 2021, period 4). SETTING: Nonsurgical ICU admissions at the University of Colorado Health Systems, including 10 hospitals throughout Colorado. SUBJECTS: All ICU admissions in four predefined time periods. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We included 13,787 patients who were admitted during the four study periods. The 28-day mortality rates for non-COVID-19 ICU admissions following index ICU admission were 13.6%, 18.0%, 13.5%, and 16.0% across periods 1-4, respectively. However, the increased odds in non-COVID-19 ICU mortality during the mandated lockdown period relative to prepandemic 1 (odds ratio [OR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.11-1.72; p = 0.0.04) was attenuated and nonsignificant after adjustment for demographics, comorbidities, diagnosis flags, and severity (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.89-1.48; p = 0.27). Similar results were found in time-to-event analyses. The most common diagnosis in each time period was acute respiratory failure (ARF), and we found it to have increased during lockdown (p < 0.001), whereas sepsis admissions increased during and decreased after lockdown (p = 0.004). Admissions for alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS) increased during lockdown and 6 months afterwards (p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: For non-COVID-19-related ICU admissions, mortality rate was similar before, during, and after Colorado's month long lockdown after confounder adjustment, including typical ICU admission flags. Primary admission diagnoses shifted throughout the predefined study periods with more admissions for severe critical diagnoses (i.e., ARF, sepsis, AWS) occurring during the mandated lockdown and nonmandated lockdown periods compared with the prepandemic and between surge period. This would suggest that the perceived increase in mortality during the lockdown for non-COVID-19 ICU admissions may be related to a shift inpatient demographics.

Voluntary, temporary out-of-home firearm storage: A survey of firearm retailers and ranges in two states.

Out-of-home storage of personal firearms is one recommended option for individuals at risk of suicide, and statewide online maps of storage locations have been created in multiple states, including Colorado and Washington. We sought to examine both the extent to which firearm retailers and ranges offer temporary, voluntary firearm storage and the perceived barriers to providing this service. We invited all firearm retailers and ranges in Colorado and Washington to complete an online or mailed survey; eligible sites had to have a physical location where they could provide storage. Between June-July 2021, 137 retailers/ranges completed the survey (response rate = 25.1%). Nearly half (44.5%) of responding firearm retailers/ranges in Colorado and Washington State indicated they had ever provided firearm storage. Among those who had ever offered storage, 80.3% currently offered storage while 19.7% no longer did. The majority (68.6%) of participants had not heard of the Colorado/Washington gun storage maps and 82.5% did not believe they were currently listed on the maps. Respondents indicated liability waivers would most influence their decision about whether to start or continue providing temporary, voluntary storage of firearms. Understanding current practices, barriers, and concerns about providing out-of-home storage by retailers and ranges may support development of more feasible approaches for out-of-home firearm storage during times of suicide risk.

Antibodies to Citrullinated Protein Antigens, Rheumatoid Factor Isotypes and the Shared Epitope and the Near-Term Development of Clinically-Apparent Rheumatoid Arthritis.

Background/Purpose: In rheumatoid arthritis (RA) autoantibodies including antibodies to citrullinated protein antigens (ACPA) and rheumatoid factor (RF) can be predictive of incident clinical RA. However, there is limited understanding of how antibody changes over time impact prediction of the likelihood and timing of future clinical RA. Materials and Methods: We evaluated relationships between ACPA, the shared epitope (SE), RF isotypes and incident RA in a prospective cohort of 90 ACPA(+) individuals without baseline arthritis identified through health-fair testing (i.e. Healthfair). We also evaluated ACPA and RF isotypes and time-to-diagnosis of RA in a retrospective cohort of 215 individuals with RA from the Department of Defense Serum Repository (DoDSR). Results: Twenty-six of 90 (29%) of ACPA(+) Healthfair participants developed incident RA. Baseline or incident dual RF-IgA and RF-IgM positivity was associated with increased risk for incident RA (HR 3.09; 95% CI 1.15 to 8.29) although RFs were negative in ~50% of individuals with incident RA. SE was associated with increased risk of RA (HR 2.87, 95% CI 1.22-6.76). In the DoDSR cohort, triple positivity for ACPA, RF-IgA and RF-IgM was present a median of 1-2 years prior to RA diagnosis, with some sex-specific differences. Conclusion: These findings can be used to counsel individuals at-risk for future RA and to design clinical trials for RA prevention. The findings also suggest that RF could be a surrogate outcome as a success of an immunologic intervention in RA prevention. Additional studies are needed to understand the biologic of different patterns of autoantibody elevations in RA evolution.

Voluntary, temporary out-of-home firearm storage: a survey of law enforcement agencies in two states.

BACKGROUND: Temporary, voluntary storage of firearms away from the home during times of risk is a recommended strategy for suicide prevention. Law enforcement agencies (LEAs) are often suggested as storage sites, and online maps in Colorado and Washington display LEAs willing to consider storage. Questions remain about the experiences and views of LEAs, including barriers to providing storage. METHODS:  LEAs in Colorado and Washington were invited to complete a survey via mail or online from June to July 2021; invitations were sent by email and mail, with telephone calls to non-responders. Survey data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, with testing between states and other subgroups using Fisher's exact tests. RESULTS: Overall, 168 LEAs in Colorado (n = 91) or Washington (n = 77) participated (40% participation rate). Of those, 53% provided temporary, voluntary storage upon request by community members at the time of the survey. More LEAs said they had ever provided storage when the requester was under a court order (74% overall). Over half (60%) of responding LEAs had received at least one storage request in the prior 12 months. Many (41%) said they had declined to return a firearm after temporary storage due to safety concerns. Most LEAs supported engagement in suicide prevention (89%) and provision of community services (77%), but they simultaneously preferred being a storage option of last resort (73%). Factors negatively influencing storage provision included liability and funding concerns. CONCLUSIONS: In Colorado and Washington, half of LEAs currently offer temporary, voluntary firearm storage upon request. While LEAs support suicide prevention and community engagement, broader provision of storage and participation in online maps may be limited by logistic, liability, and financial concerns. Addressing these barriers may facilitate broader suicide prevention efforts.

Inference following multiple imputation for generalized additive models: an investigation of the median p-value rule with applications to the Pulmonary Hypertension Association Registry and Colorado COVID-19 hospitalization data.

BACKGROUND: Missing data prove troublesome in data analysis; at best they reduce a study's statistical power and at worst they induce bias in parameter estimates. Multiple imputation via chained equations is a popular technique for dealing with missing data. However, techniques for combining and pooling results from fitted generalized additive models (GAMs) after multiple imputation have not been well explored. METHODS: We simulated missing data under MCAR, MAR, and MNAR frameworks and utilized random forest and predictive mean matching imputation to investigate a variety of rules for combining GAMs after multiple imputation with binary and normally distributed outcomes. We compared multiple pooling procedures including the "D2" method, the Cauchy combination test, and the median p-value (MPV) rule. The MPV rule involves simply computing and reporting the median p-value across all imputations. Other ad hoc methods such as a mean p-value rule and a single imputation method are investigated. The viability of these methods in pooling results from B-splines is also examined for normal outcomes. An application of these various pooling techniques is then performed on two case studies, one which examines the effect of elevation on a six-minute walk distance (a normal outcome) for patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension, and the other which examines risk factors for intubation in hospitalized COVID-19 patients (a dichotomous outcome). RESULTS: In comparison to the results from generalized additive models fit on full datasets, the median p-value rule performs as well as if not better than the other methods examined. In situations where the alternative hypothesis is true, the Cauchy combination test appears overpowered and alternative methods appear underpowered, while the median p-value rule yields results similar to those from analyses of complete data. CONCLUSIONS: For pooling results after fitting GAMs to multiply imputed datasets, the median p-value is a simple yet useful approach which balances both power to detect important associations and control of Type I errors.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Older Adult Driving in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: To examine how the COVID-19 pandemic affected driving and health outcomes in older adults. METHODS: We compared Advancing Understanding of Transportation Options (AUTO) study participants enrolled before (December 2019 to March 2020) versus during the pandemic (May 2020 to June 2021). Participants were English-speaking, licensed drivers (≥70 years) who drove weekly and had a primary care provider at a study site and ≥1 medical condition potentially associated with driving cessation. We used baseline self-reported measures on mobility and health. RESULTS: Compared to those enrolled pre-COVID-19 (n = 61), more participants enrolled during COVID-19 (n = 240) reported driving reductions (26% vs. 70%, p < .001) and more often for personal preference (vs. medical/emotional reasons). While mean social isolation was higher during than pre-COVID-19, self-reported depression, stress, and overall health PROMIS scores did not differ significantly. DISCUSSION: Our findings highlight the resiliency of some older adults and have implications for mitigating the negative effects of driving cessation.

"Is it time to stop driving?": A randomized clinical trial of an online decision aid for older drivers.

BACKGROUND: Many older adults face the difficult decision of when to stop driving. We sought to test whether an online driving decision aid (DDA) would improve decision quality. METHODS: This prospective two-arm randomized trial enrolled English-speaking licensed drivers (age ≥70 years) without significant cognitive impairment but with ≥1 diagnosis associated with increased likelihood of driving cessation; all participants received primary care in clinics associated with study sites in three states. The intervention was the online Healthwise® DDA for older adults addressing "Is it time to stop driving?"; control was web-based information for older drivers only. The primary outcome was decision conflict as estimated by the Decisional Conflict Scale (DCS; lower scores indicate higher quality). Secondary outcomes were knowledge and decision self-efficacy about driving decisions. We examined postrandomization differences in primary and secondary outcomes by study arm using generalized linear mixed-effects models with adjustment for site and prerandomization scores. RESULTS: Among 301 participants (mean age: 77.1 years), 51.2% identified as female and the majority as non-Hispanic (99.0%) and white (95.3%); 98.0% lived in an urban area. Participant characteristics were similar by study arm but differed across sites. Intervention participants had a lower mean DCS score (12.3 DDA vs 15.2 control; adjusted mean ratio [AMR] 0.76, 95%CI 0.61-0.95; p = 0.017). Intervention participants had higher mean knowledge scores (88.9 DDA vs. 79.9 control; OR 1.13, 95%CI 1.01-1.27, p = 0.038); there was no difference between groups in self-efficacy scores. The DDA had high acceptability; 86.9% of those who viewed it said they would recommend it to others in similar situations. CONCLUSIONS: The online Healthwise® DDA decreased decision conflict and increased knowledge in this sample of English-speaking, older adults without significant cognitive impairment, although most chose to continue driving. Use of such resources in clinical or community settings may support older adults as they transition from driving to other forms of mobility. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier "Advancing Understanding of Transportation Options (AUTO)" NCT04141891.

Alveolar epithelial glycocalyx degradation mediates surfactant dysfunction and contributes to acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a common cause of respiratory failure yet has few pharmacologic therapies, reflecting the mechanistic heterogeneity of lung injury. We hypothesized that damage to the alveolar epithelial glycocalyx, a layer of glycosaminoglycans interposed between the epithelium and surfactant, contributes to lung injury in patients with ARDS. Using mass spectrometry of airspace fluid noninvasively collected from mechanically ventilated patients, we found that airspace glycosaminoglycan shedding (an index of glycocalyx degradation) occurred predominantly in patients with direct lung injury and was associated with duration of mechanical ventilation. Male patients had increased shedding, which correlated with airspace concentrations of matrix metalloproteinases. Selective epithelial glycocalyx degradation in mice was sufficient to induce surfactant dysfunction, a key characteristic of ARDS, leading to microatelectasis and decreased lung compliance. Rapid colorimetric quantification of airspace glycosaminoglycans was feasible and could provide point-of-care prognostic information to clinicians and/or be used for predictive enrichment in clinical trials.

Combinations of Anticyclic Citrullinated Protein Antibody, Rheumatoid Factor, and Serum Calprotectin Positivity Are Associated With the Diagnosis of Rheumatoid Arthritis Within 3 Years.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prevalence of elevations of anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide-3 (anti-CCP3) antibody, rheumatoid factor IgM (RF-IgM) and serum calprotectin (sCP) in pre-rheumatoid arthritis (RA) as well as the diagnostic accuracies of these biomarkers for the timing of diagnosis of future RA. METHODS: A total of 215 RA cases, each with approximately three pre-RA diagnoses and one post-RA diagnosis serum sample, and controls were identified from the Department of Defense Serum Repository. All case samples and a single sample from each control subject were tested for anti-CCP3 (IgG), RF-IgM, and sCP. The diagnostic accuracies of biomarkers for future RA were evaluated. RESULTS: Anti-CCP3, RF-IgM, and sCP were elevated in pre-RA, with anti-CCP3 and sCP significantly elevated compared with RF-IgM at the earliest time points. Within the cases, the combination of anti-CCP3 and RF-IgM positivity had a positive predictive value (PPV) of 35.6% for a diagnosis of RA in 3 years or less, which is significantly higher than the PPV of 18.7% for anti-CCP3 positivity alone (P < 0.001). A combination of anti-CCP3, RF-IgM, and sCP had the highest PPV (53.0%) for a diagnosis of RA in 3 years or less; however, this was not significantly higher than the PPV for anti-CCP3 and RF-IgM positivity (P = 0.248). CONCLUSION: Anti-CCP3, RF-IgM, and sCP are elevated in pre-RA; furthermore, combinations of elevations of these biomarkers are more commonly seen in the period of less than or equal to 3 years to diagnosis. This may be considered in creating inclusion criteria in prevention trials in RA. In addition, the biologic relationships of these biomarkers in pre-RA need exploration.

Presence of any degree of coronary artery disease among liver transplant candidates is associated with increased rate of post-transplant major adverse cardiac events.

The impact of coronary artery disease (CAD) among liver transplant candidates (LTC) on post-LT clinical outcomes remains unclear. The aim of this study is to determine association of presence and severity of CAD on post-LT major adverse cardiac events (MACE) including cardiac-associated mortality. We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of 231 patients who underwent diagnostic coronary angiogram (DCA) during their LT evaluation at a tertiary medical center from 2012-2017. Patients were analyzed based on degree of CAD (no CAD, non-obstructive CAD [< 50% stenosis], obstructive CAD [≥50% stenosis]) per DCA results. MACE were noted at 30 days, 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years post-LT, and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to determine post-LT MACE-free probability. LTC with any CAD, including non-obstructive CAD, had lower MACE-free probability at all post-LT time points (0.94 vs 0.65 at 30 days, P = .001; 0.87 vs 0.59 at 1 year, P = .002; 0.87 vs 0.41 at 3 years, P < .001; 0.87 vs 0.37 at 5 years, P < .001). Identification of and medical intervention for non-obstructive CAD should be considered in all LTC, though further studies are necessary to determine optimal medical interventions to mitigate MACE risk in this cohort.

Ordered quantile normalization: a semiparametric transformation built for the cross-validation era.

Normalization transformations have recently experienced a resurgence in popularity in the era of machine learning, particularly in data preprocessing. However, the classical methods that can be adapted to cross-validation are not always effective. We introduce Ordered Quantile (ORQ) normalization, a one-to-one transformation that is designed to consistently and effectively transform a vector of arbitrary distribution into a vector that follows a normal (Gaussian) distribution. In the absence of ties, ORQ normalization is guaranteed to produce normally distributed transformed data. Once trained, an ORQ transformation can be readily and effectively applied to new data. We compare the effectiveness of the ORQ technique with other popular normalization methods in a simulation study where the true data generating distributions are known. We find that ORQ normalization is the only method that works consistently and effectively, regardless of the underlying distribution. We also explore the use of repeated cross-validation to identify the best normalizing transformation when the true underlying distribution is unknown. We apply our technique and other normalization methods via the bestNormalize R package on a car pricing data set. We built bestNormalize to evaluate the normalization efficacy of many candidate transformations; the package is freely available via the Comprehensive R Archive Network.

Application of multi-state models in cancer clinical trials.

Background/aims The goal of this article is to illustrate the utility of multi-state models in cancer clinical trials. Our specific aims are to describe multi-state models and how they differ from standard survival methods, to illustrate how multi-state models can facilitate deeper understanding of the treatment effect on multiple paths along the disease process that patients could experience in cancer clinical trials, to explain the differences between multi-state models and time-dependent Cox models, and to briefly describe available software to conduct such analyses. Methods Data from 717 newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia patients who enrolled in the CALGB 10603 trial were used as an illustrative example. The current probability-in-state was estimated using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. The restricted mean time in state was calculated as the area under the probability-in-state curves. Cox-type regression was used to evaluate the effect of midostaurin on the various clinical paths. Simulation was conducted using a newly constructed shiny application. All analyses were performed using the R software. Results Multi-state model analyses of CALGB 10603 suggested that the overall improvement in survival with midostaurin seen in the primary analysis possibly resulted from a higher complete remission rate in combination with a lower risk of relapse and of death after complete remission in patients treated with midostaurin. Simulation results, in a three-state illness-death without recovery model, demonstrate that multi-state models and time-dependent Cox models evaluate treatment effects from different frameworks. Conclusion Multi-state models allow detailed evaluation of treatment effects in complex clinical trial settings where patients can experience multiple paths between study enrollment and the final outcome. Multi-state models can be used as a complementary tool to standard survival analyses to provide deeper insights to the effects of treatment in trial settings with complex disease process.