Increased Pediatric Respiratory Syncytial Virus Case Counts Following the Emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Can Be Attributed to Changes in Testing.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) circulation dropped markedly early in the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a resurgence with heightened case counts. The "immunity debt" hypothesis proposes that the RSV-naїve pediatric population increased during the period of low transmission. However, the evidence supporting this hypothesis is limited, and the role of changing testing practices in the perceived surge has not been comprehensively evaluated. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, retrospective analysis of 342 530 RSV encounters and 980 546 RSV diagnostic tests occurring at 32 US pediatric hospitals in 2013-2023. We used interrupted time series analysis to estimate pandemic-associated changes in RSV patient and test volume and to quantify changes in the proportions of patients requiring hospitalization, intensive care, or mechanical ventilation. We quantified the fraction of the shifts in case counts and in the age of diagnosed patients attributable to changes in testing. RESULTS: RSV patient volume increased 2.4-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7, 3.5) in 2021-2023 relative to the pre-pandemic phase and was accompanied by an 18.9-fold increase (95% CI: 15.0, 23.9) in RSV test volume. Shifts in patient volume and in patient age were largely attributable to increased testing. The proportions of patients with RSV that required hospitalization, intensive care, or mechanical ventilation declined significantly across all patient age groups. CONCLUSIONS: A surge in RSV testing, rather than in viral circulation, likely underlies the increased case counts observed in 2021-2023. These findings warrant a critical assessment of the immunity debt hypothesis and highlight the importance of considering the testing denominator when surveillance strategies are dynamic.

Optimisation and evaluation of viral genomic sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 rapid diagnostic tests: a laboratory and cohort-based study.

BACKGROUND: Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) can bolster viral genomic surveillance efforts; however, approaches to maximise and standardise pathogen genome recovery from RDTs remain underdeveloped. We aimed to systematically optimise the elution of genetic material from RDT components and to evaluate the efficacy of RDT sequencing for outbreak investigation. METHODS: In this laboratory and cohort-based study we seeded RDTs with inactivated SARS-CoV-2 to optimise the elution of genomic material from RDT lateral flow strips. We measured the effect of changes in buffer type, time in buffer, and rotation on PCR cycle threshold (Ct) value. We recruited individuals older than 18 years residing in the greater Boston area, MA, USA, from July 18 to Nov 5, 2022, via email advertising to students and staff at Harvard University, MA, USA, and via broad social media advertising. All individuals recruited were within 5 days of a positive diagnostic test for SARS-CoV-2; no other relevant exclusion criteria were applied. Each individual completed two RDTs and one PCR swab. On Dec 29, 2022, we also collected RDTs from a convenience sample of individuals who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 and associated with an outbreak at a senior housing facility in MA, USA. We extracted all returned PCR swabs and RDT components (ie, swab, strip, or buffer); samples with a Ct of less than 40 were subject to amplicon sequencing. We compared the efficacy of elution and sequencing across RDT brands and components and used RDT-derived sequences to infer transmission links within the outbreak at the senior housing facility. We conducted metagenomic sequencing of negative RDTs from symptomatic individuals living in the senior housing facility. FINDINGS: Neither elution duration of greater than 10 min nor rotation during elution impacted viral titres. Elution in Buffer AVL (Ct=31·4) and Tris-EDTA Buffer (Ct=30·8) were equivalent (p=0·34); AVL outperformed elution in lysis buffer and 50% lysis buffer (Ct=40·0, p=0·0029 for both) as well as Universal Viral Transport Medium (Ct=36·7, p=0·079). Performance of RDT strips was poorer than that of matched PCR swabs (mean Ct difference 10·2 [SD 4·3], p<0·0001); however, RDT swabs performed similarly to PCR swabs (mean Ct difference 4·1 [5·2], p=0·055). No RDT brand significantly outperformed another. Across sample types, viral load predicted the viral genome assembly length. We assembled greater than 80% complete genomes from 12 of 17 RDT-derived swabs, three of 18 strips, and four of 11 residual buffers. We generated outbreak-associated SARS-CoV-2 genomes using both amplicon and metagenomic sequencing and identified multiple introductions of the virus that resulted in downstream transmission. INTERPRETATION: RDT-derived swabs are a reasonable alternative to PCR swabs for viral genomic surveillance and outbreak investigation. RDT-derived lateral flow strips yield accurate, but significantly fewer, viral reads than matched PCR swabs. Metagenomic sequencing of negative RDTs can identify viruses that might underlie patient symptoms. FUNDING: The National Science Foundation, the Hertz Foundation, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, Harvard Medical School, the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Broad Institute and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Household Transmission during the Omicron Era in Massachusetts: A Prospective, Case-Ascertained Study using Genomic Epidemiology.

Background: Households are a major setting for SARS-CoV-2 infections, but there remains a lack of knowledge regarding the dynamics of viral transmission, particularly in the setting of widespread pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 immunity and evolving variants. Methods: We conducted a prospective, case-ascertained household transmission study in the greater Boston area in March-July 2022. Anterior nasal swabs, along with clinical and demographic data, were collected for 14 days. Nasal swabs were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR. Whole genome sequencing was performed on high-titer samples. Results: We enrolled 33 households in a primary analysis set, with a median age of participants of 25 years old (range 2-66); 98% of whom had received at least 2 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. 58% of households had a secondary case during follow up and the secondary attack rate (SAR) for contacts infected was 39%. We further examined a strict analysis set of 21 households that had only 1 PCR+ case at baseline, finding an SAR of 22.5%. Genomic epidemiology further determined that there were multiple sources of infection for household contacts, including the index case and outside introductions. When limiting estimates to only highly probable transmissions given epidemiologic and genomic data, the SAR was 18.4%. Conclusions: Household contacts of a person newly diagnosed with COVID-19 are at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the following 2 weeks. This is, however, not only due to infection from the household index case, but also because the presence of an infected household member implies increased SARS-CoV-2 community transmission. Further studies to understand and mitigate household transmission are needed.

Increased pediatric RSV case counts following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 are attributable to increased testing.

Background: The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) dropped markedly early in the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a resurgence with heightened case counts. The "immunity debt" hypothesis proposes that the RSV-naive pediatric population increased during the period of low transmission, resulting in a subsequent increased risk of infection. However, the evidence supporting this hypothesis is limited, and no studies have comprehensively evaluated the role of changing respiratory viral testing practices in the perceived surge. Methods: We conducted a multicenter, retrospective analysis of 342,530 RSV encounters and 980,546 RSV diagnostic tests occurring at 32 United States pediatric hospitals between 2013 and 2023. We used interrupted time series analysis to estimate pandemic-associated changes in RSV patient and testing volume, and to quantify changes in the proportions of patients admitted from the emergency department (ED), admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), and receiving mechanical ventilation. We quantified the fraction of the observed shifts in case counts and in the age of diagnosed patients attributable to changes in RSV testing practices. Finally, we analyzed 524,404 influenza virus encounters and 1,768,526 influenza diagnostic tests to address the specificity of the findings to RSV. Findings: RSV patient volume increased 2.4-fold (95% CI: 1.7, 3.5) in 2021-2023 relative to the pre-pandemic phase, and was accompanied by an 18.9-fold increase (95% CI: 15.0, 23.9) in RSV test volume. Over two-thirds of the apparent shifts in patient volume and in patient age were attributable to increased testing, which was concentrated among older pediatric patients. The proportions of patients with RSV requiring hospitalization, intensive care, or mechanical ventilation declined significantly across all patient age groups. These declines were not observed for patients with influenza virus. Interpretation: A surge in RSV testing, rather than in viral circulation, likely underlies the increased case counts observed in 2021-2023. We identify expected consequences of increased testing, including the diagnosis of less severe cases and a shift in the patient age distribution. These findings warrant a critical assessment of the immunity debt hypothesis, while highlighting the importance of considering the testing denominator when surveillance strategies are dynamic. Funding: National Institutes of Health & Howard Hughes Medical Institute.

Model-directed generation of CRISPR-Cas13a guide RNAs designs artificial sequences that improve nucleic acid detection.

Generating maximally-fit biological sequences has the potential to transform CRISPR guide RNA design as it has other areas of biomedicine. Here, we introduce model-directed exploration algorithms (MEAs) for designing maximally-fit, artificial CRISPR-Cas13a guides-with multiple mismatches to any natural sequence-that are tailored for desired properties around nucleic acid diagnostics. We find that MEA-designed guides offer more sensitive detection of diverse pathogens and discrimination of pathogen variants compared to guides derived directly from natural sequences, and illuminate interpretable design principles that broaden Cas13a targeting.

Inferring Viral Transmission Pathways from Within-Host Variation.

Genome sequencing can offer critical insight into pathogen spread in viral outbreaks, but existing transmission inference methods use simplistic evolutionary models and only incorporate a portion of available genetic data. Here, we develop a robust evolutionary model for transmission reconstruction that tracks the genetic composition of within-host viral populations over time and the lineages transmitted between hosts. We confirm that our model reliably describes within-host variant frequencies in a dataset of 134,682 SARS-CoV-2 deep-sequenced genomes from Massachusetts, USA. We then demonstrate that our reconstruction approach infers transmissions more accurately than two leading methods on synthetic data, as well as in a controlled outbreak of bovine respiratory syncytial virus and an epidemiologically-investigated SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in South Africa. Finally, we apply our transmission reconstruction tool to 5,692 outbreaks among the 134,682 Massachusetts genomes. Our methods and results demonstrate the utility of within-host variation for transmission inference of SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens, and provide an adaptable mathematical framework for tracking within-host evolution.

Metagenomic surveillance uncovers diverse and novel viral taxa in febrile patients from Nigeria.

Effective infectious disease surveillance in high-risk regions is critical for clinical care and pandemic preemption; however, few clinical diagnostics are available for the wide range of potential human pathogens. Here, we conduct unbiased metagenomic sequencing of 593 samples from febrile Nigerian patients collected in three settings: i) population-level surveillance of individuals presenting with symptoms consistent with Lassa Fever (LF); ii) real-time investigations of outbreaks with suspected infectious etiologies; and iii) undiagnosed clinically challenging cases. We identify 13 distinct viruses, including the second and third documented cases of human blood-associated dicistrovirus, and a highly divergent, unclassified dicistrovirus that we name human blood-associated dicistrovirus 2. We show that pegivirus C is a common co-infection in individuals with LF and is associated with lower Lassa viral loads and favorable outcomes. We help uncover the causes of three outbreaks as yellow fever virus, monkeypox virus, and a noninfectious cause, the latter ultimately determined to be pesticide poisoning. We demonstrate that a local, Nigerian-driven metagenomics response to complex public health scenarios generates accurate, real-time differential diagnoses, yielding insights that inform policy.

The 2022 RSV surge was driven by multiple viral lineages.

The US experienced an early and severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) surge in autumn 2022. Despite the pressure this has put on hospitals and care centers, the factors promoting the surge in cases are unknown. To investigate whether viral characteristics contributed to the extent or severity of the surge, we sequenced 105 RSV-positive specimens from symptomatic patients diagnosed with RSV who presented to the Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and its outpatient practices in the Greater Boston Area. Genomic analysis of the resulting 77 genomes (54 with >80% coverage, and 23 with >5% coverage) demonstrated that the surge was driven by multiple lineages of RSV-A (91%; 70/77) and RSV-B (9%; 7/77). Phylogenetic analysis of all US RSV-A revealed 12 clades, 4 of which contained Massachusetts and Washington genomes. These clades individually had times to most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) between 2014 and 2017, and together had a tMRCA of 2009, suggesting that they emerged well before the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, the RSV-B genomes had a tMRCA between 2016 and 2019. We found that the RSV-A and RSV-B genomes in our sample did not differ statistically from the estimated clock rate of the larger phylogenetic tree (10.6 and 12.4 substitutions per year, respectively). In summary, the polyphyletic nature of viral genomes sequenced in the US during the autumn 2022 surge is inconsistent with the emergence of a single, highly transmissible causal RSV lineage.

Early Introduction and Rise of the Omicron Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variant in Highly Vaccinated University Populations.

BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is highly transmissible in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. The dynamics that govern its establishment and propensity toward fixation (reaching 100% frequency in the SARS-CoV-2 population) in communities remain unknown. Here, we describe the dynamics of Omicron at 3 institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the greater Boston area. METHODS: We use diagnostic and variant-specifying molecular assays and epidemiological analytical approaches to describe the rapid dominance of Omicron following its introduction into 3 IHEs with asymptomatic surveillance programs. RESULTS: We show that the establishment of Omicron at IHEs precedes that of the state and region and that the time to fixation is shorter at IHEs (9.5-12.5 days) than in the state (14.8 days) or region. We show that the trajectory of Omicron fixation among university employees resembles that of students, with a 2- to 3-day delay. Finally, we compare cycle threshold values in Omicron vs Delta variant cases on college campuses and identify lower viral loads among college affiliates who harbor Omicron infections. CONCLUSIONS: We document the rapid takeover of the Omicron variant at IHEs, reaching near-fixation within the span of 9.5-12.5 days despite lower viral loads, on average, than the previously dominant Delta variant. These findings highlight the transmissibility of Omicron, its propensity to rapidly dominate small populations, and the ability of robust asymptomatic surveillance programs to offer early insights into the dynamics of pathogen arrival and spread.

Multimodal surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 at a university enables development of a robust outbreak response framework.

BACKGROUND: Universities are vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks, making them ideal environments to study transmission dynamics and evaluate mitigation and surveillance measures. Here, we analyze multimodal COVID-19-associated data collected during the 2020-2021 academic year at Colorado Mesa University and introduce a SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and response framework. METHODS: We analyzed epidemiological and sociobehavioral data (demographics, contact tracing, and WiFi-based co-location data) alongside pathogen surveillance data (wastewater and diagnostic testing, and viral genomic sequencing of wastewater and clinical specimens) to characterize outbreak dynamics and inform policy. We applied relative risk, multiple linear regression, and social network assortativity to identify attributes or behaviors associated with contracting SARS-CoV-2. To characterize SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we used viral sequencing, phylogenomic tools, and functional assays. FINDINGS: Athletes, particularly those on high-contact teams, had the highest risk of testing positive. On average, individuals who tested positive had more contacts and longer interaction durations than individuals who never tested positive. The distribution of contacts per individual was overdispersed, although not as overdispersed as the distribution of phylogenomic descendants. Corroboration via technical replicates was essential for identification of wastewater mutations. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our findings, we formulate a framework that combines tools into an integrated disease surveillance program that can be implemented in other congregate settings with limited resources. FUNDING: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation, the Hertz Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness, the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, the Flu Lab, and the Audacious Project.

Viral Kinetics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron Infection in mRNA-Vaccinated Individuals Treated and Not Treated with Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir.

We measured viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection in 36 mRNA-vaccinated individuals, 11 of whom were treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (NMV-r). We found that NMV-r was associated with greater incidence of viral rebound compared to no treatment. For those that did not rebound, NMV-r significantly reduced time to PCR conversion.

Multiplexed CRISPR-based microfluidic platform for clinical testing of respiratory viruses and identification of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has demonstrated a clear need for high-throughput, multiplexed and sensitive assays for detecting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and other respiratory viruses and their emerging variants. Here, we present a cost-effective virus and variant detection platform, called microfluidic Combinatorial Arrayed Reactions for Multiplexed Evaluation of Nucleic acids (mCARMEN), which combines CRISPR-based diagnostics and microfluidics with a streamlined workflow for clinical use. We developed the mCARMEN respiratory virus panel to test for up to 21 viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, other coronaviruses and both influenza strains, and demonstrated its diagnostic-grade performance on 525 patient specimens in an academic setting and 166 specimens in a clinical setting. We further developed an mCARMEN panel to enable the identification of 6 SARS-CoV-2 variant lineages, including Delta and Omicron, and evaluated it on 2,088 patient specimens with near-perfect concordance to sequencing-based variant classification. Lastly, we implemented a combined Cas13 and Cas12 approach that enables quantitative measurement of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A viral copies in samples. The mCARMEN platform enables high-throughput surveillance of multiple viruses and variants simultaneously, enabling rapid detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Streamlined inactivation, amplification, and Cas13-based detection of SARS-CoV-2.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted that new diagnostic technologies are essential for controlling disease transmission. Here, we develop SHINE (Streamlined Highlighting of Infections to Navigate Epidemics), a sensitive and specific diagnostic tool that can detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA from unextracted samples. We identify the optimal conditions to allow RPA-based amplification and Cas13-based detection to occur in a single step, simplifying assay preparation and reducing run-time. We improve HUDSON to rapidly inactivate viruses in nasopharyngeal swabs and saliva in 10 min. SHINE's results can be visualized with an in-tube fluorescent readout - reducing contamination risk as amplification reaction tubes remain sealed - and interpreted by a companion smartphone application. We validate SHINE on 50 nasopharyngeal patient samples, demonstrating 90% sensitivity and 100% specificity compared to RT-qPCR with a sample-to-answer time of 50 min. SHINE has the potential to be used outside of hospitals and clinical laboratories, greatly enhancing diagnostic capabilities.

Integrated sample inactivation, amplification, and Cas13-based detection of SARS-CoV-2.

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted that new diagnostic technologies are essential for controlling disease transmission. Here, we develop SHINE (SHERLOCK and HUDSON Integration to Navigate Epidemics), a sensitive and specific integrated diagnostic tool that can detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA from unextracted samples. We combine the steps of SHERLOCK into a single-step reaction and optimize HUDSON to accelerate viral inactivation in nasopharyngeal swabs and saliva. SHINE's results can be visualized with an in-tube fluorescent readout - reducing contamination risk as amplification reaction tubes remain sealed - and interpreted by a companion smartphone application. We validate SHINE on 50 nasopharyngeal patient samples, demonstrating 90% sensitivity and 100% specificity compared to RT-PCR with a sample-to-answer time of 50 minutes. SHINE has the potential to be used outside of hospitals and clinical laboratories, greatly enhancing diagnostic capabilities.