An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation.

BACKGROUND: PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. METHODS: Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. RESULTS: In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age of 40. CONCLUSIONS: The PREDICT v2 is an improved prognostication and treatment benefit model compared with v1. The online version should continue to aid clinical decision making in women with early breast cancer.

Crowdsourcing the General Public for Large Scale Molecular Pathology Studies in Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Citizen science, scientific research conducted by non-specialists, has the potential to facilitate biomedical research using available large-scale data, however validating the results is challenging. The Cell Slider is a citizen science project that intends to share images from tumors with the general public, enabling them to score tumor markers independently through an internet-based interface. METHODS: From October 2012 to June 2014, 98,293 Citizen Scientists accessed the Cell Slider web page and scored 180,172 sub-images derived from images of 12,326 tissue microarray cores labeled for estrogen receptor (ER). We evaluated the accuracy of Citizen Scientist's ER classification, and the association between ER status and prognosis by comparing their test performance against trained pathologists. FINDINGS: The area under ROC curve was 0.95 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.96) for cancer cell identification and 0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.97) for ER status. ER positive tumors scored by Citizen Scientists were associated with survival in a similar way to that scored by trained pathologists. Survival probability at 15 years were 0.78 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.80) for ER-positive and 0.72 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.77) for ER-negative tumors based on Citizen Scientists classification. Based on pathologist classification, survival probability was 0.79 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.81) for ER-positive and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) for ER-negative tumors. The hazard ratio for death was 0.26 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.37) at diagnosis and became greater than one after 6.5 years of follow-up for ER scored by Citizen Scientists, and 0.24 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.33) at diagnosis increasing thereafter to one after 6.7 (95% CI 4.1 to 10.9) years of follow-up for ER scored by pathologists. INTERPRETATION: Crowdsourcing of the general public to classify cancer pathology data for research is viable, engages the public and provides accurate ER data. Crowdsourced classification of research data may offer a valid solution to problems of throughput requiring human input.

Cell-type-specific enrichment of risk-associated regulatory elements at ovarian cancer susceptibility loci.

Understanding the regulatory landscape of the human genome is a central question in complex trait genetics. Most single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with cancer risk lie in non-protein-coding regions, implicating regulatory DNA elements as functional targets of susceptibility variants. Here, we describe genome-wide annotation of regions of open chromatin and histone modification in fallopian tube and ovarian surface epithelial cells (FTSECs, OSECs), the debated cellular origins of high-grade serous ovarian cancers (HGSOCs) and in endometriosis epithelial cells (EECs), the likely precursor of clear cell ovarian carcinomas (CCOCs). The regulatory architecture of these cell types was compared with normal human mammary epithelial cells and LNCaP prostate cancer cells. We observed similar positional patterns of global enhancer signatures across the three different ovarian cancer precursor cell types, and evidence of tissue-specific regulatory signatures compared to non-gynecological cell types. We found significant enrichment for risk-associated SNPs intersecting regulatory biofeatures at 17 known HGSOC susceptibility loci in FTSECs (P = 3.8 × 10(-30)), OSECs (P = 2.4 × 10(-23)) and HMECs (P = 6.7 × 10(-15)) but not for EECs (P = 0.45) or LNCaP cells (P = 0.88). Hierarchical clustering of risk SNPs conditioned on the six different cell types indicates FTSECs and OSECs are highly related (96% of samples using multi-scale bootstrapping) suggesting both cell types may be precursors of HGSOC. These data represent the first description of regulatory catalogues of normal precursor cells for different ovarian cancer subtypes, and provide unique insights into the tissue specific regulatory variation with respect to the likely functional targets of germline genetic susceptibility variants for ovarian cancer.