Unexpected changes in source apportioned results derived from different ambient VOC metrics.

Although most source apportionments of VOCs use mixing ratios, about 23 % of published studies use mass concentrations. Thus, systematically exploring the changes in VOC source apportioned results caused by metric differences is important to assess the differences in key precursor apportionment results given the observed increases in O3 pollution situation. Different monitoring instruments measured hourly VOC volumetric concentrations in three typical Chinese cities (i.e., Qingdao, Shijiazhuang, and Zhumadian). Converting volumetric to mass concentrations under standard and/or actual temperature-pressure conditions, VOC values with different metrics were obtained. The impacts of different metrics on the source apportionments were then investigated. Compared to the positive matrix factorization of the volumetric data (VC-PMF), the VOC species concentrations with low relative molecular mass (RMM) in the factor profiles substantially decreased in mass data analyses (MC-PMF). However, those species with high RMM substantially increased. There were no substantial differences in the apportioned source contributions based on standard and actual condition mass concentrations. However, the high-low rankings of percent contributions apportioned using the volumetric and mass data produced substantial differences. Compared with the VC-PMF results, the percent contributions of sources dominated by species with low RMM (e.g., natural gas usage and mixed sources containing natural gas usage) apportioned by MC-PMF decreased, while those of sources that emitted high RMM species (e.g., solvent usage and mixed sources containing solvent usage) increased. Source apportionments based on the volumetric concentration data had more practical significance compared to the mass concentration data results for control strategy development since the mass data analyses created issues.

Effects of inbreeding on reproductive success in endangered North Atlantic right whales.

Only approximately 356 North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) remain. With extremely low levels of genetic diversity, limited options for mates, and variation in reproductive success across females, there is concern regarding the potential for genetic limitations of population growth from inbreeding depression. In this study, we quantified reproductive success of female North Atlantic right whales with a modified de-lifing approach using reproductive history information collected over decades of field observations. We used double-digest restriction site-associated sequencing to sequence approximately 2% of the genome of 105 female North Atlantic right whales and combined genomic inbreeding estimates with individual fecundity values to assess evidence of inbreeding depression. Inbreeding depression could not explain the variance in reproductive success of females, however we present evidence that inbreeding depression may be affecting the viability of inbred fetuses-potentially lowering the reproductive success of the species as a whole. Combined, these results allay some concerns that genetic factors are impacting species survival as genetic diversity is being retained through selection against inbred fetuses. While still far fewer calves are being born each year than expected, the small role of genetics underlying variance in female fecundity suggests that variance may be explained by external factors that can potentially be mitigated through protection measures designed to reduce serious injury and mortality from human activities.

Comparison of the rate of healthcare encounters for influenza from source-specific PM2.5 before and after tier 3 vehicle standards in New York state.

BACKGROUND: Influenza healthcare encounters in adults associated with specific sources of PM2.5 is an area of active research. OBJECTIVE: Following 2017 legislation requiring reductions in emissions from light-duty vehicles, we hypothesized a reduced rate of influenza healthcare encounters would be associated with concentrations of PM2.5 from traffic sources in the early implementation period of this regulation (2017-2019). METHODS: We used the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) to study adult patients hospitalized (N = 5328) or treated in the emergency department (N = 18,247) for influenza in New York State. Using a modified case-crossover design, we estimated the excess rate (ER) of influenza hospitalizations and emergency department visits associated with interquartile range increases in source-specific PM2.5 concentrations (e.g., spark-ignition emissions [GAS], biomass burning [BB], diesel [DIE]) in lag day(s) 0, 0-3 and 0-6. We then evaluated whether ERs differed after Tier 3 implementation (2017-2019) compared to the period prior to implementation (2014-2016). RESULTS: Each interquartile range increase in DIE in lag days 0-6 was associated with a 21.3% increased rate of influenza hospitalization (95% CI: 6.9, 37.6) in the 2014-2016 period, and a 6.3% decreased rate (95% CI: -12.7, 0.5) in the 2017-2019 period. The GAS/influenza excess rates were larger in the 2017-2019 period than the 2014-2016 period for emergency department visits. We also observed a larger ER associated with increased BB in the 2017-2019 period compared to the 2014-2016 period. IMPACT STATEMENT: We present an accountability study on the impact of the early implementation period of the Tier 3 vehicle emission standards on the association between specific sources of PM2.5 air pollution on influenza healthcare encounters in New York State. We found that the association between gasoline emissions and influenza healthcare encounters did not lessen in magnitude between periods, possibly because the emissions standards were not yet fully implemented. The reduction in the rates of influenza healthcare encounters associated with diesel emissions may be reflective of past policies to reduce the toxicity of diesel emissions. Accountability studies can help policy makers and environmental scientists better understand the timing of pollution changes and associated health effects.

Describing Functional Low Back Pain Disability in the American Population: A Crowd-sourced Evaluation of the Oswestry Disability Index.

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) is widely utilized as a patient reported outcome (PRO) tool to assess patients presenting with low back pain (LBP) and following thoracolumbar spine surgery. No primary study has calculated the baseline range of ODI values in the diverse American population. Establishing age-adjusted normative values for ODI in the American population is crucial for assessing the utility of treatment strategies. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to describe the baseline range of functional low back disability as measured by the ODI in an American population. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING: Cross-Sectional Observational Study. PATIENT SAMPLE: A total of 1214 participants were recruited from the United States in January 2024 using a combination of the Connect and PrimePanel platforms by CloudResearch to complete a survey administered on a RedCap online database. The survey consisted of 10 demographic questions and the 10 ODI survey questions. The distribution of the survey was designed to obtain approximately 100 respondents in each of the following age groups: 18-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and 80-89. The distribution of the sample was similarly designed to match the US Census racial data with 78.1% White, 13.9% Black, and 7.9% other. OUTCOME MEASURES: Oswestry Disability Index (ODI). METHODS: A crowd-sourcing platform called Cloudresearch was used to collect a representative sample of the US population by answering questions of the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire (ODQ), a 10-question survey. RESULTS: The final sample size was 797 participants including 386 (48.4%) males and 411 (51.6%) females; 169 participants were excluded that did not complete the survey and an additional 248 were excluded for failing attention check questions. The overall mean ODI score for the combined age groups was 14.35 (95% CI [13.33, 15.37]). The mean ODI scores increased with age, with the highest mean ODI in ages 70-79 at 18.0 (95% CI [14.76, 21.24]). Female participants reported higher mean ODI scores than their male counterparts in the 18-29 age group (P = .01), 50-59 age group (P = .01), and 60-69 age group (P = .02). Additionally, a weak positive correlation was found between Body Mass Index (BMI) and ODI scores (r = 0.22, P < .001). CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate a clear trend of increased disability with age. This study describes the baseline range of functional low back pain disability in the US population. By defining these parameters, healthcare professionals can better tailor age and sex-specific interventions to manage disability in the aging U.S. population, ultimately improving patient care and both operative and non-operative treatment plans for LBP-related thoracolumbar pathology.

A case-crossover study of ST-elevation myocardial infarction and organic carbon and source-specific PM2.5 concentrations in Monroe County, New York.

Background: Previous work reported increased rates of cardiovascular hospitalizations associated with increased source-specific PM2.5 concentrations in New York State, despite decreased PM2.5 concentrations. We also found increased rates of ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) associated with short-term increases in concentrations of ultrafine particles and other traffic-related pollutants in the 2014-2016 period, but not during 2017-2019 in Rochester. Changes in PM2.5 composition and sources resulting from air quality policies (e.g., Tier 3 light-duty vehicles) may explain the differences. Thus, this study aimed to estimate whether rates of STEMI were associated with organic carbon and source-specific PM2.5 concentrations. Methods: Using STEMI patients treated at the University of Rochester Medical Center, compositional and source-apportioned PM2.5 concentrations measured in Rochester, a time-stratified case-crossover design, and conditional logistic regression models, we estimated the rate of STEMI associated with increases in mean primary organic carbon (POC), secondary organic carbon (SOC), and source-specific PM2.5 concentrations on lag days 0, 0-3, and 0-6 during 2014-2019. Results: The associations of an increased rate of STEMI with interquartile range (IQR) increases in spark-ignition emissions (GAS) and diesel (DIE) concentrations in the previous few days were not found from 2014 to 2019. However, IQR increases in GAS concentrations were associated with an increased rate of STEMI on the same day in the 2014-2016 period (Rate ratio [RR] = 1.69; 95% CI = 0.98, 2.94; 1.73 µg/m3). In addition, each IQR increase in mean SOC concentration in the previous 6 days was associated with an increased rate of STEMI, despite imprecision (RR = 1.14; 95% CI = 0.89, 1.45; 0.42 µg/m3). Conclusion: Increased SOC concentrations may be associated with increased rates of STEMI, while there seems to be a declining trend in adverse effects of GAS on triggering of STEMI. These changes could be attributed to changes in PM2.5 composition and sources following the Tier 3 vehicle introduction.

Optimizing the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration: Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Following the apparent final case in an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, the decision to declare the outbreak over must balance societal benefits of relaxing interventions against the risk of resurgence. Estimates of the end-of-outbreak probability (the probability that no future cases will occur) provide quantitative evidence that can inform the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration. An existing modeling approach for estimating the end-of-outbreak probability requires comprehensive contact tracing data describing who infected whom to be available, but such data are often unavailable or incomplete during outbreaks. Here, we develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo-based approach that extends the previous method and does not require contact tracing data. Considering data from two EVD outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we find that data describing who infected whom are not required to resolve uncertainty about when to declare an outbreak over.

Comprehensive assessment of nonuniform image quality: Application to imaging near metal.

PURPOSE: Comprehensive assessment of image quality requires accounting for spatial variations in (i) intensity artifact, (ii) geometric distortion, (iii) signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and (iv) spatial resolution, among other factors. This work presents an ensemble of methods to meet this need, from phantom design to image analysis, and applies it to the scenario of imaging near metal. METHODS: A modular phantom design employing a gyroid lattice is developed to enable the co-registered volumetric quantitation of image quality near a metallic hip implant. A method for measuring spatial resolution by means of local point spread function (PSF) estimation is presented and the relative fitness of gyroid and cubic lattices is examined. Intensity artifact, geometric distortion, and SNR maps are also computed. Results are demonstrated with 2D-FSE and MAVRIC-SL scan protocols on a 3T MRI scanner. RESULTS: The spatial resolution method demonstrates a worst-case error of 0.17 pixels for measuring in-plane blurring up to 3 pixels (full width at half maximum). The gyroid outperforms a cubic lattice design for the local PSF estimation task. The phantom supports four configurations toggling the presence/absence of both metal and structure with good spatial correspondence for co-registered analysis of the four quality factors. The marginal scan time to evaluate one scan protocol amounts to five repetitions. The phantom design can be fabricated in 2 days at negligible material cost. CONCLUSION: The phantom and associated analysis methods can elucidate complex image quality trade-offs involving intensity artifact, geometric distortion, SNR, and spatial resolution. The ensemble of methods is suitable for benchmarking imaging performance near metal.

Lablab (Lablab purpureus L.) genotypes and field margin vegetation influence bean aphids and their natural enemies.

Lablab (Lablab purpureus L.) is an important food and livestock feed legume that can also enhance soil fertility. However, its production is limited by insect pests, notably the black bean aphid (Aphis fabae). The present field study was conducted to determine the difference in the contribution of lablab genotypes and natural field margin vegetation (FMV) to the abundance and diversity of natural enemies and the damage, incidence, and abundance of bean aphids. Eighteen lablab genotypes were planted in the presence or absence of FMV in a randomized complete block design experiment replicated four times. Data on aphid abundance, incidence, and severity of damage were collected at four growth stages of the crop. Lablab genotypes significantly influenced aphid incidence, suggesting some level of tolerance to aphid colonization. Findings showed that lablab genotypes were a significant influence on natural enemy species richness with no statistical difference for abundance and natural enemy species diversity. However, the genotypes did not vary significantly in their influence on the number of aphid natural enemies. FMV was associated with low bean aphid damage. Overall, the presence or absence of FMV did not influence the number of natural enemies caught on the crop. This concurs with recent work that shows a similar number of natural enemies with field margin plants but may reflect the reduced number of pest insects. Cropping seasons influenced aphid abundance and damage severity, with the populations developing at the early stages of lablab development and decreasing as the crop advanced. This pattern was similar both in the presence or absence of FMV. The findings of this study highlight the important contribution of crop genotype together with the presence of field margin species in the regulation of aphids and their natural enemies in lablab.

PM2.5 and its components and respiratory disease healthcare encounters - Unanticipated increased exposure-response relationships in recent years after environmental policies.

Prior studies reported excess rates (ERs) of cardiorespiratory events associated with short-term increases in PM2.5 concentrations, despite implementation of pollution-control policies. In 2017, Federal Tier 3 light-duty vehicle regulations began, and to-date there have been no assessments of population health effects of the policy. Using the NYS Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) database, we obtained hospitalizations and ED visits with a principal diagnosis of asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for residents living within 15 miles of six urban PM2.5 monitoring sites in NYS (2014-2019). We used a time-stratified case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression (adjusting for ambient temperature, relative humidity, and weekday) to estimate associations between PM2.5, POC (primary organic carbon), SOC (secondary organic carbon), and rates of respiratory disease hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits from 2014 to 2019. We evaluated demographic disparities in these relative rates and compared changes in ERs before (2014-2016) and after Tier 3 implementation (2017-2019). Each interquartile range increase in PM2.5 was associated with increased ERs of asthma or COPD hospitalizations and ED visits in the previous 7 days (ERs ranged from 1.1%-3.1%). Interquartile range increases in POC were associated with increased rates of asthma ED visits (lag days 0-6: ER = 2.1%, 95% CI = 0.7%, 3.6%). Unexpectedly, the ERs of asthma admission and ED visits associated with PM2.5, POC, and SOC were higher during 2017-2019 (after Tier 3) than 2014-2016 (before Tier-3). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease analyses showed similar patterns. Excess Rates were higher in children (<18 years; asthma) and seniors (≥65 years; COPD), and Black, Hispanic, and NYC residents. In summary, unanticipated increases in asthma and COPD ERs after Tier-3 implementation were observed, and demographic disparities in asthma/COPD and PM2.5, POC, and SOC associations were also observed. Future work should confirm findings and investigate triggering of respiratory events by source-specific PM.

Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors or Angiotensin-Receptor Blockers for Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease : A Systematic Review and Retrospective Individual Participant-Level Meta-analysis of Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: In patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), the effects of initiating treatment with an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi) or angiotensin-receptor blocker (ARB) on the risk for kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT) and death remain unclear. PURPOSE: To examine the association of ACEi or ARB treatment initiation, relative to a non-ACEi or ARB comparator, with rates of KFRT and death. DATA SOURCES: Ovid Medline and the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration Clinical Trials Consortium from 1946 through 31 December 2023. STUDY SELECTION: Completed randomized controlled trials testing either an ACEi or an ARB versus a comparator (placebo or antihypertensive drugs other than ACEi or ARB) that included patients with a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) below 30 mL/min/1.73 m2. DATA EXTRACTION: The primary outcome was KFRT, and the secondary outcome was death before KFRT. Analyses were done using Cox proportional hazards models according to the intention-to-treat principle. Prespecified subgroup analyses were done according to baseline age (<65 vs. ≥65 years), eGFR (<20 vs. ≥20 mL/min/1.73 m2), albuminuria (urine albumin-creatinine ratio <300 vs. ≥300 mg/g), and history of diabetes. DATA SYNTHESIS: A total of 1739 participants from 18 trials were included, with a mean age of 54.9 years and mean eGFR of 22.2 mL/min/1.73 m2, of whom 624 (35.9%) developed KFRT and 133 (7.6%) died during a median follow-up of 34 months (IQR, 19 to 40 months). Overall, ACEi or ARB treatment initiation led to lower risk for KFRT (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.55 to 0.79]) but not death (hazard ratio, 0.86 [CI, 0.58 to 1.28]). There was no statistically significant interaction between ACEi or ARB treatment and age, eGFR, albuminuria, or diabetes (P for interaction > 0.05 for all). LIMITATION: Individual participant-level data for hyperkalemia or acute kidney injury were not available. CONCLUSION: Initiation of ACEi or ARB therapy protects against KFRT, but not death, in people with advanced CKD. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health. (PROSPERO: CRD42022307589).

Management of Open Fractures of the Extremities and Pediatrics.

The modern management of open fractures was established after the foundational work of Gustilo and Anderson, but we continue to strive to determine the optimal treatment of open fractures to diminish the risk of infection. The ideal timing of antibiotics, presentation to the operating room, and timing of procedures such as flap coverage continue to be investigated with incremental changes recommended over the years. This article aims to provide the most recent review of the literature regarding the timing and management of both upper and lower extremity open fractures, pediatric open fractures, current topics of controversy, and the data supporting current treatment recommendations.

Distortion-free water-fat separated diffusion-weighted imaging using spatiotemporal joint reconstruction.

PURPOSE: Diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) suffers from geometric distortion and chemical shift artifacts due to the commonly used Echo Planar Imaging (EPI) trajectory. Even with fat suppression in DWI, severe B0 and B1 variations can result in residual fat, which becomes both a source of image artifacts and a confounding factor in diffusion-weighted contrast in distinguishing benign and malignant tissues. This work presents a method for acquiring distortion-free diffusion-weighted images using spatiotemporal acquisition and joint reconstruction. Water-fat separation is performed by chemical-shift encoding. METHODS: Spatiotemporal acquisition is employed to obtain distortion-free images at a series of echo times. Chemical-shift encoding is used for water-fat separation. Reconstruction and separation are performed jointly in the spat-spectral domain. To address the shot-to-shot motion-induced phase in DWI, an Fast Spin Echo (FSE)-based phase navigator is incorporated into the sequence to obtain distortion-free phase information. The proposed method was validated in phantoms and in vivo for the brain, head and neck, and breast. RESULTS: The proposed method enables the acquisition of distortion-free diffusion-weighted images in the presence of B0 field inhomogenieties commonly observed in the body. Water and fat components are separated with no obvious spectral leakage artifacts. The estimated Apparent Diffusion Coefficient (ADC) is comparable to that of multishot DW-EPI. CONCLUSION: Distortion-free, water-fat separated diffusion-weighted images in body can be obtained through the utilization of spatiotemporal acquisition and joint reconstruction methods.

Simple Modification of a DSAEK Carrier Enables Graft Insertion by Injection Without Compromising Endothelial Cell Viability.

PURPOSE: We evaluate the quality and feasibility of preloading Descemet stripping automated endothelial keratoplasty (DSAEK) grafts into a modified EndoGlide Ultrathin system for graft injection. METHODS: DSAEK grafts were prepared by experienced processing technicians at 2 separate locations, loaded into a modified EndoGlide Ultrathin, and placed in storage media. Grafts processed at one location were shipped cross-country overnight to the other location and were examined on arrival for positioning within the modified EndoGlide Ultrathin. All grafts were ejected and analyzed for endothelial cell loss (ECL) with calcein acetoxymethyl staining and FIJI segmentation. A subset of grafts was measured by optical coherence tomography for graft thickness 1 hour after cut, 1 hour after loading, and 1 day after loading. RESULTS: No grafts were displaced from the modified carrier over 3 shipping events (n = 9), and all grafts (n = 18) were successfully ejected. Grafts loaded into the modified carrier and ejected exhibited no more cell loss than grafts loaded into the standard carrier and removed by pull-through (14.0% ± 2.8% vs. 12.2% ± 3.4%, respectively, P = 0.24). Carrier modification skills can be successfully transferred as grafts loaded by a processing technician new to carrier modification were within the acceptable limit of 25% ECL for transplant DSAEK grafts. Graft thickness increased significantly (P < 0.05) between the postcut and 1-hour postload measurement and the postcut and 24-hour postload measurement. CONCLUSIONS: The EndoGlide Ultrathin can be modified to enable its use for graft injection while not compromising the ability to use the pull-through method for graft delivery. Preloaded DSAEK grafts swell significantly during the 24-hour storage period, and patterns of ECL may be linked to swelling.

What is the early fate of adjacent segmental lordosis compensation at L3-4 and L5-S1 following a lateral versus transforaminal lumbar Interbody Fusion at L4-5?

INTRODUCTION: Degenerative spondylolisthesis causes translational and angular malalignment, resulting in a loss of segmental lordosis. This leads to compensatory adjustments in adjacent levels to maintain balance. Lateral lumbar interbody fusion (LLIF) and transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF) are common techniques at L4-5. This study compares compensatory changes at adjacent L3-4 and L5-S1 levels six months post LLIF versus TLIF for grade 1 degenerative spondylolisthesis at L4-5. METHODS: A retrospective study included patients undergoing L4-5 LLIF or TLIF with posterior pedicle screw instrumentation (no posterior osteotomy) for grade 1 spondylolisthesis. Pre-op and 6-month post-op radiographs measured segmental lordosis (L3-L4, L4-L5, L5-S1), lumbar lordosis (LL), and pelvic incidence (PI), along with PI-LL mismatch. Multiple regressions were used for hypothesis testing. RESULTS: 113 patients (61 LLIF, 52 TLIF) were studied. TLIF showed less change in L4-5 lordosis (mean = 1.04°, SD = 4.34) compared to LLIF (mean = 4.99°, SD = 5.53) (p = 0.003). L4-5 angle changes didn't correlate with L3-4 changes, and no disparity between LLIF and TLIF was found (all p > 0.16). In LLIF, greater L4-5 lordosis change predicted reduced compensatory L5-S1 lordosis (p = 0.04), while no significant relationship was observed in TLIF patients (p = 0.12). CONCLUSION: LLIF at L4-5 increases lordosis at the operated level, with compensatory decrease at L5-S1 but not L3-4. This reciprocal loss at adjacent L5-S1 may explain inconsistent improvement in lumbar lordosis (PI-LL) post L4-5 fusion.

An SIS epidemic model with individual variation.

We study an extension of the stochastic SIS (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible) model in continuous time that accounts for variation amongst individuals. By examining its limiting behaviour as the population size grows we are able to exhibit conditions for the infection to become endemic.

Smoothing in linear multicompartment biological processes subject to stochastic input.

Many physical and biological systems rely on the progression of material through multiple independent stages. In viral replication, for example, virions enter a cell to undergo a complex process comprising several disparate stages before the eventual accumulation and release of replicated virions. While such systems may have some control over the internal dynamics that make up this progression, a challenge for many is to regulate behavior under what are often highly variable external environments acting as system inputs. In this work, we study a simple analog of this problem through a linear multicompartment model subject to a stochastic input in the form of a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, a type of Gaussian process. By expressing the system as a multidimensional Gaussian process, we derive several closed-form analytical results relating to the covariances and autocorrelations of the system, quantifying the smoothing effect discrete compartments afford multicompartment systems. Semianalytical results demonstrate that feedback and feedforward loops can enhance system robustness, and simulation results probe the intractable problem of the first passage time distribution, which has specific relevance to eventual cell lysis in the viral replication cycle. Finally, we demonstrate that the smoothing seen in the process is a consequence of the discreteness of the system, and does not manifest in systems with continuous transport. While we make progress through analysis of a simple linear problem, many of our insights are applicable more generally, and our work enables future analysis into multicompartment processes subject to stochastic inputs.

An in-depth investigation of global sea surface temperature behavior utilizing chaotic modeling.

Sea surface temperature (SST), with its complex and dynamic behavior, is a major driver of ocean-atmosphere interactions. The purpose of this study is to investigate the behavior of SST and its prediction using a chaotic approach. Average mutual information (AMI) and Cao methods were used to reconstruct the phase space. The Lyapunov exponent and correlation dimension were used to investigate chaos. The Lyapunov exponent index was used to predict SST with a 5-year average prediction horizon using the local prediction method between 2023 and 2027. The results showed a 3-month delay time for the Pacific and Antarctic Oceans, and a 2-month delay time for the Atlantic, Indian, and Arctic Oceans. The optimal embedding dimension for all oceans is between 6 and 7. Our analysis reveals that the dynamics of SST in all oceans exhibit varying degrees of chaos, as indicated by the correlation dimension. The local prediction method achieves relatively accurate short-term SST predictions due to the clustering of SST points around specific attractors in the phase space. However, in the long term, the accuracy of this method decreases as the points in the phase space of SST can spread randomly. The model performance ranking with a Percent Mean Relative Absolute Error shows that the Indian Ocean has the best performance compared to other oceans, while the Atlantic, Pacific, and Antarctic and Arctic Oceans are in the next ranks. This study contributes to understanding the dynamics of SST and has practical value for use in the development of climate models.

Association between Pre-Kidney Transplant Elevated Parathyroid Hormone and Post-Transplant Graft Loss.

BACKGROUND: Prior to kidney transplantation (KT) most patients have an elevated parathyroid hormone (PTH). However, the impact of PTH on post-KT mortality and graft loss is unclear. We quantified the association between PTH levels measured at transplant and adverse post-KT outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective longitudinal cohort of 1,136 KT recipients from a single tertiary care center between 12/2008 and 2/2020. Pre-KT PTH levels were abstracted retrospectively. Adjusted multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between pre-KT PTH levels and mortality and death-censored graft loss (DCGL). RESULTS: Of 1,136 recipients, pre-KT PTH levels were ≤300pg/mL in 62.3% and >600pg/mL in 12.5%. Compared to those with a pre-KT PTH≤300pg/mL, patients with a pre-KT PTH>600pg/mL were more likely to be Black (51.4% vs. 34.6%) and have a longer dialysis vintage (4.8y vs. 1.7y) (p<0.001). Those with a pre-KT PTH>600pg/mL had a higher 10-year cumulative incidence of DCGL than those with PTH≤300pg/mL (31.7% vs. 15.4%, p<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, pre-KT PTH>600pg/mL was associated with a 1.76-fold increased risk of DCGL (95% CI: 1.16-2.65). The magnitude of this association differed by race (pinteraction=0.011) and by treatment (pinteraction=0.018). Among non-Black patients, a PTH>600pg/mL was associated with a 3.21-fold increased risk of DCGL compared to those with PTH≤300pg/mL (95%CI: 1.77-5.81). Among untreated patients, those with PTH>600pg/mL had a 2.54-fold increase in DCGL (95%CI: 1.44-4.47). There was no association between pre-KT PTH and mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: PTH >600pg/mL prior to KT increased the risk of DCGL by 76%, demonstrating the importance of treating PTH prior to KT to prevent graft loss in a contemporary era with the introduction and widespread availability of medical therapy.

Phenotypic switching mechanisms determine the structure of cell migration into extracellular matrix under the 'go-or-grow' hypothesis.

A fundamental feature of collective cell migration is phenotypic heterogeneity which, for example, influences tumour progression and relapse. While current mathematical models often consider discrete phenotypic structuring of the cell population, in-line with the 'go-or-grow' hypothesis (Hatzikirou et al., 2012; Stepien et al., 2018), they regularly overlook the role that the environment may play in determining the cells' phenotype during migration. Comparing a previously studied volume-filling model for a homogeneous population of generalist cells that can proliferate, move and degrade extracellular matrix (ECM) (Crossley et al., 2023) to a novel model for a heterogeneous population comprising two distinct sub-populations of specialist cells that can either move and degrade ECM or proliferate, this study explores how different hypothetical phenotypic switching mechanisms affect the speed and structure of the invading cell populations. Through a continuum model derived from its individual-based counterpart, insights into the influence of the ECM and the impact of phenotypic switching on migrating cell populations emerge. Notably, specialist cell populations that cannot switch phenotype show reduced invasiveness compared to generalist cell populations, while implementing different forms of switching significantly alters the structure of migrating cell fronts. This key result suggests that the structure of an invading cell population could be used to infer the underlying mechanisms governing phenotypic switching.

Parsing patterns: Emerging roles of tissue self-organization in health and disease.

Patterned morphologies, such as segments, spirals, stripes, and spots, frequently emerge during embryogenesis through self-organized coordination between cells. Yet, complex patterns also emerge in adults, suggesting that the capacity for spontaneous self-organization is a ubiquitous property of biological tissues. We review current knowledge on the principles and mechanisms of self-organized patterning in embryonic tissues and explore how these principles and mechanisms apply to adult tissues that exhibit features of patterning. We discuss how and why spontaneous pattern generation is integral to homeostasis and healing of tissues, illustrating it with examples from regenerative biology. We examine how aberrant self-organization underlies diverse pathological states, including inflammatory skin disorders and tumors. Lastly, we posit that based on such blueprints, targeted engineering of pattern-driving molecular circuits can be leveraged for synthetic biology and the generation of organoids with intricate patterns.