That's not the Mona Lisa! How to interpret spatial capture-recapture density surface estimates.

Spatial capture-recapture methods are often used to produce density surfaces, and these surfaces are often misinterpreted. In particular, spatial change in density is confused with spatial change in uncertainty about density. We illustrate correct and incorrect inference visually by treating a grayscale image of the Mona Lisa as an activity center intensity or density surface and simulating spatial capture-recapture survey data from it. Inferences can be drawn about the intensity of the point process generating activity centers, and about the likely locations of activity centers associated with the capture histories obtained from a single survey of a single realization of this process. We show that treating probabilistic predictions of activity center locations as estimates of the intensity of the process results in invalid and misleading ecological inferences, and that predictions are highly dependent on where the detectors are placed and how much survey effort is used. Estimates of the activity center density surface should be obtained by estimating the intensity of a point process model for activity centers. Practitioners should state explicitly whether they are estimating the intensity or making predictions of activity center location, and predictions of activity center locations should not be confused with estimates of the intensity.

The Role of Pretherapy Quantitative Imaging and Dosimetry in Radioiodine Therapy for Advanced Thyroid Cancer.

Radioactive iodine is well established as a successful treatment for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), although around 15% of patients have local recurrence or develop distant metastases and may become refractory to radioactive iodine (RAI). A personalized approach to treatment, based on the absorbed radiation doses delivered and using treatments to enhance RAI uptake, has not yet been developed. Methods: We performed a multicenter clinical trial to investigate the role of selumetinib, which modulates the expression of the sodium iodide symporter, and hence iodine uptake, in the treatment of RAI-refractory DTC. The iodine uptake before and after selumetinib was quantified to assess the effect of selumetinib. The range of absorbed doses delivered to metastatic disease was calculated from pre- and posttherapy imaging, and the predictive accuracy of a theranostic approach to enable personalized treatment planning was investigated. Results: Significant inter- and intrapatient variability was observed with respect to the uptake of RAI and the effect of selumetinib. The absorbed doses delivered to metastatic lesions ranged from less than 1 Gy to 1,170 Gy. A strong positive correlation was found between the absorbed doses predicted from pretherapy imaging and those measured after therapy (r = 0.93, P < 0.001). Conclusion: The variation in outcomes from RAI therapy of DTC may be explained, among other factors, by the range of absorbed doses delivered. The ability to assess the effect of treatments that modulate RAI uptake, and to estimate the absorbed doses at therapy, introduces the potential for patient stratification using a theranostic approach. Patient-specific absorbed dose planning might be the key to more successful treatment of advanced DTC.

Implementation of the Time-to-Event Continuous Reassessment Method Design in a Phase I Platform Trial Testing Novel Radiotherapy-Drug Combinations-CONCORDE.

PURPOSE: CONCORDE is the first phase I drug-radiotherapy (RT) combination platform in non-small-cell lung cancer, designed to assess multiple different DNA damage response inhibitors in combination with radical thoracic RT. Time-to-event continuous reassessment method (TiTE-CRM) methodology will inform dose escalation individually for each different DNA damage response inhibitor-RT combination and a randomized calibration arm will aid attribution of toxicities. We report in detail the novel statistical design and implementation of the TiTE-CRM in the CONCORDE trial. METHODS: Statistical parameters were calibrated following recommendations by Lee and Cheung. Simulations were performed to assess the operating characteristics of the chosen models and were written using modified code from the R package dfcrm. RESULTS: The results of the simulation work showed that the proposed statistical model setup can answer the research questions under a wide range of potential scenarios. The proposed models work well under varying levels of recruitment and with multiple adaptations to the original methodology. CONCLUSION: The results demonstrate how TiTE-CRM methodology may be used in practice in a complex dose-finding platform study. We propose that this novel phase I design has potential to overcome some of the logistical barriers that for many years have prevented timely development of novel drug-RT combinations.

CONCORDE: A phase I platform study of novel agents in combination with conventional radiotherapy in non-small-cell lung cancer.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide and most patients are unsuitable for 'gold standard' treatment, which is concurrent chemoradiotherapy. CONCORDE is a platform study seeking to establish the toxicity profiles of multiple novel radiosensitisers targeting DNA repair proteins in patients treated with sequential chemoradiotherapy. Time-to-event continual reassessment will facilitate efficient dose-finding.