Ecosystem response persists after a prolonged marine heatwave.

Some of the longest and most comprehensive marine ecosystem monitoring programs were established in the Gulf of Alaska following the environmental disaster of the Exxon Valdez oil spill over 30 years ago. These monitoring programs have been successful in assessing recovery from oil spill impacts, and their continuation decades later has now provided an unparalleled assessment of ecosystem responses to another newly emerging global threat, marine heatwaves. The 2014-2016 northeast Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) in the Gulf of Alaska was the longest lasting heatwave globally over the past decade, with some cooling, but also continued warm conditions through 2019. Our analysis of 187 time series from primary production to commercial fisheries and nearshore intertidal to offshore oceanic domains demonstrate abrupt changes across trophic levels, with many responses persisting up to at least 5 years after the onset of the heatwave. Furthermore, our suite of metrics showed novel community-level groupings relative to at least a decade prior to the heatwave. Given anticipated increases in marine heatwaves under current climate projections, it remains uncertain when or if the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem will return to a pre-PMH state.

Heatwave-induced synchrony within forage fish portfolio disrupts energy flow to top pelagic predators.

During the Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016, abundance and quality of several key forage fish species in the Gulf of Alaska were simultaneously reduced throughout the system. Capelin (Mallotus catervarius), sand lance (Ammodytes personatus), and herring (Clupea pallasii) populations were at historically low levels, and within this community abrupt declines in portfolio effects identify trophic instability at the onset of the heatwave. Although compensatory changes in age structure, size, growth or energy content of forage fish were observed to varying degrees among all these forage fish, none were able to fully mitigate adverse impacts of the heatwave, which likely included both top-down and bottom-up forcing. Notably, changes to the demographic structure of forage fish suggested size-selective removals typical of top-down regulation. At the same time, changes in zooplankton communities may have driven bottom-up regulation as copepod community structure shifted toward smaller, warm water species, and euphausiid biomass was reduced owing to the loss of cold-water species. Mediated by these impacts on the forage fish community, an unprecedented disruption of the normal pelagic food web was signaled by higher trophic level disruptions during 2015-2016, when seabirds, marine mammals, and groundfish experienced shifts in distribution, mass mortalities, and reproductive failures. Unlike decadal-scale variability underlying ecosystem regime shifts, the heatwave appeared to temporarily overwhelm the ability of the forage fish community to buffer against changes imposed by warm water anomalies, thereby eliminating any ecological advantages that may have accrued from having a suite of coexisting forage species with differing life-history compensations.

Algal toxins in Alaskan seabirds: Evaluating the role of saxitoxin and domoic acid in a large-scale die-off of Common Murres.

Elevated seawater temperatures are linked to the development of harmful algal blooms (HABs), which pose a growing threat to marine birds and other wildlife. During late 2015 and early 2016, a massive die-off of Common Murres (Uria aalge; hereafter, murres) was observed in the Gulf of Alaska coincident with a strong marine heat wave. Previous studies have documented illness and death among seabirds resulting from exposure to the HAB neurotoxins saxitoxin (STX) and domoic acid (DA). Given the unusual mortality event, corresponding warm water anomalies, and recent detection of STX and DA throughout coastal Alaskan waters, HABs were identified as a possible factor of concern. To evaluate whether algal toxins may have contributed to murre deaths, we tested for STX and DA in a suite of tissues obtained from beach-cast murre carcasses associated with the die-off as well as from apparently healthy murres and Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla; hereafter, kittiwakes) sampled in the preceding and following summers. We also tested forage fish and marine invertebrates collected in the Gulf of Alaska in 2015-2017 to evaluate potential sources of HAB toxin exposure for seabirds. Saxitoxin was present in multiple tissue types of both die-off (36.4 %) and healthy (41.7 %) murres and healthy kittiwakes (54.2 %). Among birds, we detected the highest concentrations of STX in liver tissues (range 1.4-10.8 µg 100 g-1) of die-off murres. Saxitoxin was relatively common in forage fish (20.3 %) and invertebrates (53.8 %). No established toxicity limits currently exist for seabirds, but concentrations of STX in birds and forage fish in our study were lower than values reported from most other bird die-offs in which STX intoxication was causally linked. We detected low concentrations of DA in a single bird sample and in 33.3 % of invertebrates and 4.0 % of forage fish samples. Although these results do not support the hypothesis that acute exposure to STX or DA was a primary factor in the 2015-2016 mortality event, additional information about the sensitivity of murres to these toxins is needed before we can discount their potential role in the die-off. The widespread occurrence of STX in seabirds, forage fish, and invertebrates in the Gulf of Alaska indicates that algal toxins should be considered in future assessments of seabird health, especially given the potential for greater occurrence of HABs in the future.

Extreme mortality and reproductive failure of common murres resulting from the northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016.

About 62,000 dead or dying common murres (Uria aalge), the trophically dominant fish-eating seabird of the North Pacific, washed ashore between summer 2015 and spring 2016 on beaches from California to Alaska. Most birds were severely emaciated and, so far, no evidence for anything other than starvation was found to explain this mass mortality. Three-quarters of murres were found in the Gulf of Alaska and the remainder along the West Coast. Studies show that only a fraction of birds that die at sea typically wash ashore, and we estimate that total mortality approached 1 million birds. About two-thirds of murres killed were adults, a substantial blow to breeding populations. Additionally, 22 complete reproductive failures were observed at multiple colonies region-wide during (2015) and after (2016-2017) the mass mortality event. Die-offs and breeding failures occur sporadically in murres, but the magnitude, duration and spatial extent of this die-off, associated with multi-colony and multi-year reproductive failures, is unprecedented and astonishing. These events co-occurred with the most powerful marine heatwave on record that persisted through 2014-2016 and created an enormous volume of ocean water (the "Blob") from California to Alaska with temperatures that exceeded average by 2-3 standard deviations. Other studies indicate that this prolonged heatwave reduced phytoplankton biomass and restructured zooplankton communities in favor of lower-calorie species, while it simultaneously increased metabolically driven food demands of ectothermic forage fish. In response, forage fish quality and quantity diminished. Similarly, large ectothermic groundfish were thought to have increased their demand for forage fish, resulting in greater top-predator demands for diminished forage fish resources. We hypothesize that these bottom-up and top-down forces created an "ectothermic vise" on forage species leading to their system-wide scarcity and resulting in mass mortality of murres and many other fish, bird and mammal species in the region during 2014-2017.

Tracing biogeochemical subsidies from glacier runoff into Alaska's coastal marine food webs.

Nearly half of the freshwater discharge into the Gulf of Alaska originates from landscapes draining glacier runoff, but the influence of the influx of riverine organic matter on the trophodynamics of coastal marine food webs is not well understood. We quantified the ecological impact of riverine organic matter subsidies to glacier-marine habitats by developing a multi-trophic level Bayesian three-isotope mixing model. We utilized large gradients in stable (δ13 C, δ15 N, δ2 H) and radiogenic (Δ14 C) isotopes that trace riverine and marine organic matter sources as they are passed from lower to higher trophic levels in glacial-marine habitats. We also compared isotope ratios between glacial-marine and more oceanic habitats. Based on isotopic measurements of potential baseline sources, ambient water and tissues of marine consumers, estimates of the riverine organic matter source contribution to upper trophic-level species including fish and seabirds ranged from 12% to 44%. Variability in resource use among similar taxa corresponded to variation in species distribution and life histories. For example, riverine organic matter assimilation by the glacier-nesting seabirds Kittlitz's murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) was greater than that of the forest-nesting marbled murrelet (B. marmoratus). The particulate and dissolved organic carbon in glacial runoff and near surface coastal waters was aged (12100-1500 years BP 14 C-age) but dissolved inorganic carbon and biota in coastal waters were young (530 years BP 14 C-age to modern). Thus terrestrial-derived subsidies in marine food webs were primarily composed of young organic matter sources released from glacier ecosystems and their surrounding watersheds. Stable isotope compositions also revealed a divergence in food web structure between glacial-marine and oceanic sites. This work demonstrates linkages between terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and facilitates a greater understanding of how climate-driven changes in freshwater runoff have the potential to alter food web dynamics within coastal marine ecosystems in Alaska.

Timing of ice retreat alters seabird abundances and distributions in the southeast Bering Sea.

Timing of spring sea-ice retreat shapes the southeast Bering Sea food web. We compared summer seabird densities and average bathymetry depth distributions between years with early (typically warm) and late (typically cold) ice retreat. Averaged over all seabird species, densities in early-ice-retreat-years were 10.1% (95% CI: 1.1-47.9%) of that in late-ice-retreat-years. In early-ice-retreat-years, surface-foraging species had increased numbers over the middle shelf (50-150 m) and reduced numbers over the shelf slope (200-500 m). Pursuit-diving seabirds showed a less clear trend. Euphausiids and the copepod Calanus marshallae/glacialis were 2.4 and 18.1 times less abundant in early-ice-retreat-years, respectively, whereas age-0 walleye pollock Gadus chalcogrammus near-surface densities were 51× higher in early-ice-retreat-years. Our results suggest a mechanistic understanding of how present and future changes in sea-ice-retreat timing may affect top predators like seabirds in the southeastern Bering Sea.

Global seabird response to forage fish depletion--one-third for the birds.

Determining the form of key predator-prey relationships is critical for understanding marine ecosystem dynamics. Using a comprehensive global database, we quantified the effect of fluctuations in food abundance on seabird breeding success. We identified a threshold in prey (fish and krill, termed "forage fish") abundance below which seabirds experience consistently reduced and more variable productivity. This response was common to all seven ecosystems and 14 bird species examined within the Atlantic, Pacific, and Southern Oceans. The threshold approximated one-third of the maximum prey biomass observed in long-term studies. This provides an indicator of the minimal forage fish biomass needed to sustain seabird productivity over the long term.

Prey density and the behavioral flexibility of a marine predator: the common murre (Uria aalge).

Flexible time budgets allow individual animals to buffer the effects of variable food availability by allocating more time to foraging when food density decreases. This trait should be especially important for marine predators that forage on patchy and ephemeral food resources. We examined flexible time allocation by a long-lived marine predator, the Common Murre (Uria aalge), using data collected in a five-year study at three colonies in Alaska (USA) with contrasting environmental conditions. Annual hydroacoustic surveys revealed an order-of-magnitude variation in food density among the 15 colony-years of study. We used data on parental time budgets and local prey density to test predictions from two hypotheses: Hypothesis A, the colony attendance of seabirds varies nonlinearly with food density; and Hypothesis B, flexible time allocation of parent murres buffers chicks against variable food availability. Hypothesis A was supported; colony attendance by murres was positively correlated with food over a limited range of poor-to-moderate food densities, but independent of food over a broader range of higher densities. This is the first empirical evidence for a nonlinear response of a marine predator's time budget to changes in prey density. Predictions from Hypothesis B were largely supported: (1) chick-feeding rates were fairly constant over a wide range of densities and only dropped below 3.5 meals per day at the low end of prey density, and (2) there was a nonlinear relationship between chick-feeding rates and time spent at the colony, with chick-feeding rates only declining after time at the colony by the nonbrooding parent was reduced to a minimum. The ability of parents to adjust their foraging time by more than 2 h/d explains why they were able to maintain chick-feeding rates of more than 3.5 meals/d across a 10-fold range in local food density.

A mechanistic link between chick diet and decline in seabirds?

A climatic regime shift during the mid-1970s in the North Pacific resulted in decreased availability of lipid-rich fish to seabirds and was followed by a dramatic decline in number of kittiwakes breeding on the Pribilof Islands. Although production of chicks in the mid-1970s was adequate to sustain kittiwake populations in the early 1980s, the disappearance of birds from breeding colonies apparently exceeded recruitment. No mechanism has been proposed to explain why recruitment would differ among fledglings fed lipid-rich or lipid-poor fish during development. Here we show that diets low in lipids induce nutritional stress and impair cognitive abilities in young red-legged kittiwakes, Rissa brevirostris. Specifically, growth retardation, increased secretion of stress hormones and inferior ability to associate food distribution with visual cues were observed in individuals fed lipid-poor diets. We conclude that lipid-poor diets during development affect the quality of young seabirds, which is likely to result in their increased mortality and low recruitment.

The adrenocortical response of tufted puffin chicks to nutritional deficits.

In several seabirds, nutritional state of a nest-bound chick is negatively correlated with the activity of its hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. Increased corticosterone (cort) secretion has been shown to facilitate changes in behavior that allow hungry chicks to obtain more food from parents. However, if parents are not willing/able to buffer their young from temporary food shortages, increased cort secretion could be detrimental to undernourished chicks. In a system where parents are insensitive to chick demands, low benefits and high costs of activation of the HPA-axis in hungry chicks should lead to a disassociation of the nutritional state of the young and the activity of its HPA-axis. We tested this novel hypothesis for the tufted puffin (Fratercula cirrhata), a seabird with intermittent provisioning of a nest-bound semi-precocial chick. We examined the HPA-axis activity of captive chicks exposed to the following: (1) a short-term (24 h) food deprivation; and (2) an array of prolonged (3 weeks) restrictions in feeding regimens. We found that in response to a short-term food deprivation chicks decreased baseline levels of cort and thyroid hormones. In response to prolonged restrictions, food-limited chicks exhibited signs of nutritional deficit: they had lower body mass, endogenous lipid reserves, and thyroid hormone titers compared to chicks fed ad libitum. However, baseline and maximum acute stress-induced levels of cort were also lower in food-restricted chicks compared to those of chicks fed ad libitum. These results support a major prediction of the study hypothesis that puffin chicks suppress HPA-axis activity in response to short- and long-term nutritional deficits. This physiological adaptation may allow a chick to extend its development in the nest, while eluding detrimental effects of chronic cort elevation.

Response of pigeon guillemots to variable abundance of high-lipid and low-lipid prey.

Populations of the pigeon guillemot (Cepphus columba) and other piscivores have been in decline for several decades in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea, and a decline in abundance of lipid-rich schooling fishes is hypothesized as the major cause. We tested this hypothesis by studying the breeding biology of pigeon guillemots during 1995-1999 while simultaneously measuring prey abundance with beach seines and bottom trawls. Our study area (Kachemak Bay, Alaska) comprises two oceanographically distinct areas. Populations of a lipid-rich schooling fish, Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes hexapterus), were higher in the warmer Inner Bay than in the colder Outer Bay, and sand lance abundance was higher during warm years. Populations of low-lipid content demersal fishes were similar between areas. Chick survival to age 15 days was 47% higher in the Inner Bay (high-lipid diet) than in the Outer Bay (low-lipid diet), and estimated reproductive success (chicks fledged nest-1) was 62% higher in the Inner Bay than in the Outer Bay. Chick provisioning rate (kJ chick-1 h-1) increased with the proportion of sand lance in the diet (r 2=0.21), as did growth rate (g day-1) of younger (beta) chicks in two-chick broods (r 2=0.14). Pigeon guillemots in the Inner Bay switched to demersal prey during years of below-average sand lance abundance, and these birds reacted to 38-fold interannual changes in sand lance abundance with reductions in beta chick growth rates, with no decline in beta chick survival. In contrast, the proportion of nests experiencing brood reduction in the Outer Bay (demersal diet) increased >300% during years of below-average demersal abundance, although demersal fish abundance varied only 4-fold among years. Our results support the hypothesis that recovery of pigeon guillemot populations from the effects of the Exxon Valdez oil spill is limited by availability of lipid-rich prey.