Can computer simulation support strategic service planning? Modelling a large integrated mental health system on recovery from COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has had a significant impact on people's mental health and mental health services. During the first year of the pandemic, existing demand was not fully met while new demand was generated, resulting in large numbers of people requiring support. To support mental health services to recover without being overwhelmed, it was important to know where services will experience increased pressure, and what strategies could be implemented to mitigate this. METHODS: We implemented a computer simulation model of patient flow through an integrated mental health service in Southwest England covering General Practice (GP), community-based 'talking therapies' (IAPT), acute hospital care, and specialist care settings. The model was calibrated on data from 1 April 2019 to 1 April 2021. Model parameters included patient demand, service-level length of stay, and probabilities of transitioning to other care settings. We used the model to compare 'do nothing' (baseline) scenarios to 'what if' (mitigation) scenarios, including increasing capacity and reducing length of stay, for two future demand trajectories from 1 April 2021 onwards. RESULTS: The results from the simulation model suggest that, without mitigation, the impact of COVID-19 will be an increase in pressure on GP and specialist community based services by 50% and 50-100% respectively. Simulating the impact of possible mitigation strategies, results show that increasing capacity in lower-acuity services, such as GP, causes a shift in demand to other parts of the mental health system while decreasing length of stay in higher acuity services is insufficient to mitigate the impact of increased demand. CONCLUSION: In capturing the interrelation of patient flow related dynamics between various mental health care settings, we demonstrate the value of computer simulation for assessing the impact of interventions on system flow.

Evaluating the impact on health outcomes of an event that resulted in a delay in contact tracing of COVID-19 cases in England, September 2020: an observational study.

OBJECTIVE: In September 2020, 15 861 SARS-CoV-2 case records failed to upload from the Second Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) to the Contact Tracing Advisory Service (CTAS) tool, delaying the contact tracing of these cases. This study used CTAS data to determine the impact of this delay on population health outcomes: transmission events, hospitalisations and mortality. Previously, a modelling study suggested a substantial impact. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: England. POPULATION: Individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and their reported contacts. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Secondary attack rates (SARs), hospitalisations and deaths among primary and secondary contacts were calculated, compared with all other concurrent, unaffected cases. Affected SGSS records were matched to CTAS records. Successive contacts and cases were identified and matched to hospital episode and mortality outcomes. RESULTS: Initiation of contact tracing was delayed by 3 days on average in the primary cases in the delay group (6 days) compared with the control group (3 days). This was associated with lower completion of contact tracing: 80% (95% CI: 79% to 81%) in delay group and 83% (95% CI: 83% to 84%) in control group. There was some evidence to suggest increased transmission to non-household contacts among those affected by the delay. The SAR for non-household contacts was higher among secondary contacts in the delay group than the control group (delay group: 7.9%, 95% CI: 6.5% to 9.2%; control group: 5.9%, 95% CI: 5.3% to 6.6%). There did not appear to be a significant difference between the delay and control groups in the odds of hospitalisation (crude OR: 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9 to 1.2)) or death (crude OR: 0.7 (95% CI: 0.1 to 4.0)) among secondary contacts. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that the delay in contact tracing had a limited impact on population health outcomes; however, contact tracing was not completed for all individuals, so some transmission events might not be captured.

Radiofrequency electromagnetic fields from mobile communication: Description of modeled dose in brain regions and the body in European children and adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF) from mobile technology and resulting dose in young people. We describe modeled integrated RF dose in European children and adolescents combining own mobile device use and surrounding sources. METHODS: Using an integrated RF model, we estimated the daily RF dose in the brain (whole-brain, cerebellum, frontal lobe, midbrain, occipital lobe, parietal lobe, temporal lobes) and the whole-body in 8358 children (ages 8-12) and adolescents (ages 14-18) from the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland during 2012-2016. The integrated model estimated RF dose from near-field sources (digital enhanced communication technology (DECT) phone, mobile phone, tablet, and laptop) and far-field sources (mobile phone base stations via 3D-radiowave modeling or RF measurements). RESULTS: Adolescents were more frequent mobile phone users and experienced higher modeled RF doses in the whole-brain (median 330.4 mJ/kg/day) compared to children (median 81.8 mJ/kg/day). Children spent more time using tablets or laptops compared to adolescents, resulting in higher RF doses in the whole-body (median whole-body dose of 81.8 mJ/kg/day) compared to adolescents (41.9 mJ/kg/day). Among brain regions, temporal lobes received the highest RF dose (medians of 274.9 and 1786.5 mJ/kg/day in children and adolescents, respectively) followed by the frontal lobe. In most children and adolescents, calling on 2G networks was the main contributor to RF dose in the whole-brain (medians of 31.1 and 273.7 mJ/kg/day, respectively). CONCLUSION: This first large study of RF dose to the brain and body of children and adolescents shows that mobile phone calls on 2G networks are the main determinants of brain dose, especially in temporal and frontal lobes, whereas whole-body doses were mostly determined by tablet and laptop use. The modeling of RF doses provides valuable input to epidemiological research and to potential risk management regarding RF exposure in young people.

Association between estimated whole-brain radiofrequency electromagnetic fields dose and cognitive function in preadolescents and adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between estimated whole-brain radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) dose, using an improved integrated RF-EMF exposure model, and cognitive function in preadolescents and adolescents. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis in preadolescents aged 9-11 years and adolescents aged 17-18 years from the Dutch Amsterdam Born Children and their Development Study (n = 1664 preadolescents) and the Spanish INfancia y Medio Ambiente Project (n = 1288 preadolescents and n = 261 adolescents), two population-based birth cohort studies. Overall whole-brain RF-EMF doses (mJ/kg/day) were estimated for several RF-EMF sources together including mobile and Digital Enhanced Cordless Telecommunications phone calls (named phone calls), other mobile phone uses than calling, tablet use, laptop use (named screen activities), and far-field sources. We also estimated whole-brain RF-EMF doses in these three groups separately (i.e. phone calls, screen activities, and far-field) that lead to different patterns of RF-EMF exposure. We assessed non-verbal intelligence in the Dutch and Spanish preadolescents, information processing speed, attentional function, and cognitive flexibility in the Spanish preadolescents, and working memory and semantic fluency in the Spanish preadolescents and adolescents using validated neurocognitive tests. RESULTS: Estimated overall whole-brain RF-EMF dose was 90.1 mJ/kg/day (interquartile range (IQR) 42.7; 164.0) in the Dutch and Spanish preadolescents and 105.1 mJ/kg/day (IQR 51.0; 295.7) in the Spanish adolescents. Higher overall estimated whole-brain RF-EMF doses from all RF-EMF sources together and from phone calls were associated with lower non-verbal intelligence score in the Dutch and Spanish preadolescents (-0.10 points, 95% CI -0.19; -0.02 per 100 mJ/kg/day increase in each exposure). However, none of the whole-brain RF-EMF doses was related to any other cognitive function outcome in the Spanish preadolescents or adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that higher brain exposure to RF-EMF is related to lower non-verbal intelligence but not to other cognitive function outcomes. Given the cross-sectional nature of the study, the small effect sizes, and the unknown biological mechanisms, we cannot discard that our resultsare due to chance finding or reverse causality. Longitudinal studies on RF-EMF brain exposure and cognitive function are needed.

Estimated whole-brain and lobe-specific radiofrequency electromagnetic fields doses and brain volumes in preadolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between estimated whole-brain and lobe-specific radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) doses, using an improved integrated RF-EMF exposure model, and brain volumes in preadolescents at 9-12 years old. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis in preadolescents aged 9-12 years from the Generation R Study, a population-based birth cohort set up in Rotterdam, The Netherlands (n = 2592). An integrated exposure model was used to estimate whole-brain and lobe-specific RF-EMF doses (mJ/kg/day) from different RF-EMF sources including mobile and Digital Enhanced Cordless Telecommunications (DECT) phone calls, other mobile phone uses than calling, tablet use, laptop use, and far-field sources. Whole-brain and lobe-specific RF-EMF doses were estimated for all RF-EMF sources together (i.e. overall) and for three groups of RF-EMF sources that lead to a different pattern of RF-EMF exposure. Information on brain volumes was extracted from magnetic resonance imaging scans. RESULTS: Estimated overall whole-brain RF-EMF dose was 84.3 mJ/kg/day. The highest overall lobe-specific dose was estimated in the temporal lobe (307.1 mJ/kg/day). Whole-brain and lobe-specific RF-EMF doses from all RF-EMF sources together, from mobile and DECT phone calls, and from far-field sources were not associated with global, cortical, or subcortical brain volumes. However, a higher whole-brain RF-EMF dose from mobile phone use for internet browsing, e-mailing, and text messaging, tablet use, and laptop use while wirelessly connected to the internet was associated with a smaller caudate volume. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that estimated whole-brain and lobe-specific RF-EMF doses were not related to brain volumes in preadolescents at 9-12 years old. Screen activities with mobile communication devices while wirelessly connected to the internet lead to low RF-EMF dose to the brain and our observed association may thus rather reflect effects of social or individual factors related to these specific uses of mobile communication devices. However, we cannot discard residual confounding, chance finding, or reverse causality. Further studies on mobile communication devices and their potential negative associations with brain development are warranted, regardless whether associations are due to RF-EMF exposure or to other factors related to their use.

Association of Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution With Thyroid Function During Pregnancy.

Importance: Air pollutants interact with estrogen nuclear receptors, but their effect on thyroid signaling is less clear. Thyroid function is of particular importance for pregnant women because of the thyroid's role in fetal brain development. Objective: To determine the short-term association of exposure to air pollution in the first trimester with thyroid function throughout pregnancy. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, 9931 pregnant women from 4 European cohorts (the Amsterdam Born Children and Their Development Study, the Generation R Study, Infancia y Medio Ambiente, and Rhea) and 1 US cohort (Project Viva) with data on air pollution exposure and thyroid function during pregnancy were included. The recruitment period for the Amsterdam Born Children and Their Development Study was January 2003 to March 2004; for Generation R, April 2002 to January 2006; for Infancia y Medio Ambiente, November 2003 to January 2008; for Rhea, February 2007 to February 2008; and for Project Viva, April 1999 to November 2002. Statistical analyses were conducted from January 2018 to April 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Residential air pollution concentrations (ie, nitrogen oxide and particulate matter [PM]) during the first trimester of pregnancy were estimated using land-use regression and satellite-derived aerosol optical depth models. Free thyroxine, thyrotropin, and thyroid peroxidase antibody levels were measured across gestation. Hypothyroxinemia was defined as free thyroxine below the fifth percentile of the cohort distribution with normal thyrotropin levels, following the American Thyroid Association guidelines. Results: Among 9931 participants, the mean (SD) age was 31.2 (4.8) years, 4853 (48.9%) had more than secondary educational levels, 5616 (56.6%) were nulliparous, 404 (4.2%) had hypothyroxinemia, and 506 (6.7%) tested positive for thyroid peroxidase antibodies. Concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5) were lower and had less variation in women in the US cohort than those in European cohorts. No associations of nitrogen oxide with thyroid function were found. Higher exposures to PM2.5 were associated with higher odds of hypothyroxinemia in pregnant women (odds ratio per 5-µg/m3 change, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.00-1.47). Although exposure to PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less was not significantly associated with hypothyroxinemia, the coefficient was similar to that for the association of PM2.5 with hypothyroxinemia (odds ratio per 10-µg/m3 change, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.93-1.48). Absorbances of PM2.5 and PM with aerodynamic diameter from 2.5 to 10 µg and were not associated with hypothyroxinemia. There was substantial heterogeneity among cohorts with respect to thyroid peroxidase antibodies (P for heterogeneity, <.001), showing associations of nitrogen oxide and PM with thyroid autoimmunity only in the women in the Generation R Study. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that first-trimester exposures to PM2.5 were associated with mild thyroid dysfunction throughout pregnancy. The association of PM2.5 exposure with thyroid function during pregnancy is of global health importance because air pollution exposure is widespread and hypothyroxinemia may adversely influence the brain development of offspring.

Prenatal and postnatal exposure to air pollution and emotional and aggressive symptoms in children from 8 European birth cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The association between air pollution exposure and emotional and behavioural problems in children is unclear. We aimed to assess prenatal and postnatal exposure to several air pollutants and child's depressive and anxiety symptoms, and aggressive symptoms in children of 7-11 years. METHODS: We analysed data of 13182 children from 8 European population-based birth cohorts. Concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM) with diameters of ≤10 µm (PM10), ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), and between 10 and 2.5 µm (PMcoarse), the absorbance of PM2.5 filters (PM2.5abs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were estimated at residential addresses of each participant. Depressive and anxiety symptoms and aggressive symptoms were assessed at 7-11 years of age using parent reported tests. Children were classified in borderline/clinical range or clinical range using validated cut offs. Region specific models were adjusted for various socio-economic and lifestyle characteristics and then combined using random effect meta-analysis. Multiple imputation and inverse probability weighting methods were applied to correct for potential attrition bias. RESULTS: A total of 1896 (14.4%) children were classified as having depressive and anxiety symptoms in the borderline/clinical range, and 1778 (13.4%) as having aggressive symptoms in the borderline/clinical range. Overall, 1108 (8.4%) and 870 (6.6%) children were classified as having depressive and anxiety symptoms, and aggressive symptoms in the clinical range, respectively. Prenatal exposure to air pollution was not associated with depressive and anxiety symptoms in the borderline/clinical range (e.g. OR 1.02 [95%CI 0.95 to 1.10] per 10 µg/m3 higher NO2) nor with aggressive symptoms in the borderline/clinical range (e.g. OR 1.04 [95%CI 0.96 to 1.12] per 10 µg/m3 higher NO2). Similar results were observed for the symptoms in the clinical range, and for postnatal exposures to air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our results suggest that prenatal and postnatal exposure to air pollution is not associated with depressive and anxiety symptoms or aggressive symptoms in children of 7 to 11 years old.

Cycling in Warsaw, Poland - Perceived enablers and barriers according to cyclists and non-cyclists.

Cycling in urban environments provides many benefits to people. However, planning of cycling infrastructures in large cities faces numerous challenges and requires better understanding of both the factors enabling cycling as well as barriers to it, determined by particular local context. While there is a growing body of research that tackle the bike transport related questions in Western Europe and the USA, there is relatively little research on that in Central Eastern Europe (CEE), in post-communist countries. In this study we used qualitative and quantitative methods to explore urban cyclists and non-cyclists opinions about the cycling, the perceived problems and obstacles, and perception of the on-going changes in bicycle transportation system in Warsaw, Poland. Although many people see potential advantages of cycling, it is mostly perceived as a leisure time activity. Those who do utilitarian cycling are more acutely aware of the benefits, such as rapidity and flexibility of this mean of transport. The main perceived barriers are linked to lack of good cycling infrastructure in the city, the feeling of insecurity linked to the behaviour of drivers, and to maintenance during winter. In conclusion, our research highlights both the opportunities and challenges linked to the development of improved cycle transportation system, suggesting the need for a range of policies, from the infrastructure improvements and comprehensive planning of the whole transportation system, to improving the driving culture that would support feeling of security of the cyclists.