Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of the CISNET colorectal cancer models.

Purpose: To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) 's SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets. Methods: We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANN) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets. Results: The optimal ANN for SimCRC had four hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had one hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 hours for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN. Conclusions: Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, like the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating three realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

Proximal determinants of suboptimal early child development during the first three years of life in socially deprived Mexican contexts.

Assessing the status and determinants of early child development (ECD) requires accurate and regularly updated measurements. Yet, little information has been published on the subject in low- and middle-income countries, particularly regarding the proximal determinants of childhood development in contexts of high social marginalization. This article analyzes the factors that favor or mitigate suboptimal ECD outcomes in Mexico. A cross-sectional study was conducted using recently collected data for 918 children aged 0-38 months from socially marginalized communities in 23 Mexican municipalities. The ECD outcomes of the children were estimated based on indicators of chronic undernutrition and neurodevelopment (normal, lagging and at risk of delay). The distribution of outcomes was described across the ECD proximal determinants analyzed, including the co-occurrence of chronic undernutrition and suboptimal neurodevelopment. Covariate-adjusted prevalence of the ECD outcomes and co-occurrences were calculated as post-estimations from a multiple multinomial logistic regression. The prevalence of chronic undernutrition was 23.5%; 45.9% of children were classified with neurodevelopmental lag, and 11% at risk of neurodevelopmental delay. The prevalence of stunting co-occurring with suboptimal neurodevelopment came to 15.4%. The results of the multinomial logistic regression model indicated that early gestational age, low birth weight, a low household socioeconomic level, being male and having numerous siblings were all associated with the co-occurrence of chronic undernutrition and suboptimal child neurodevelopment. This study identified important predictors of child development in the first three years of life, specifically in two of its principal indicators: nutritional and neurodevelopmental status. Most of the predictors observed can be improved by means of social programs and interventions. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT04210362.

Early neurological development and nutritional status in Mexican socially deprived contexts.

Early childhood development (ECD) is a critical stage in the intergenerational process of human development. Targeted interventions depend on accurate and up-to-date ECD measurements. This paper presents estimates for the nutritional and neurodevelopmental status of socially marginalized children in Mexico. We performed a cross-sectional study based on data collected in 2019-2020 during home visits to 1,176 children aged 0-38 months across 24 highly marginalized locations in Oaxaca. We assessed nutritional status according to the World Health Organization 2006 child-growth standards and ECD status using the Child Development Evaluation Test, 2nd Edition. We stratified results by sex. Prevalence of stunting was 5.3 percentage points (p.p.) higher (p = 0.023) in males (25.3%; 95% CI: 20.2%, 31.1%) compared to females (20.0%; 95% CI: 15.0%, 26.1%). Overall prevalence rates stood at 5.7% (95% CI: 4.0%, 8.1%) for underweight, 1.5% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.7%) for wasting and 3.6% (95% CI: 2.3%, 5.7%) for overweight/obesity, with no significant differences by sex. Prevalence of normal development was 8.3 p.p. lower (p = 0.001) in males (39.3%; 95% CI: 34.5%, 44.4%) compared to females (47.6%; 95% CI: 41.6%, 53.6%). By development area, the highest prevalence of suboptimal outcomes among children with developmental lag or at risk of delay was observed in their gross motor and language skills: 24.1% (95% CI: 20.0%, 28.8%) and 38.6% (95% CI: 34.0%, 43.3%), respectively. The largest difference between the sexes was found in the language area. Our results show that childhood development strategies have been insufficient thus far in the studied population. Programs specifically designed to prevent ECD lags and bridge inequality gaps are urgently needed. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT04210362.

A behavioral economics analysis of the participation in early childhood development social programs promoted by civil societies in Mexico.

Based on a behavioral economics (BE) approach, we analyzed the decision to participate in an early childhood development (ECD) program implemented in Mexico by a non-governmental organization. We conducted a literature review and a qualitative study of four localities participating in the ECD program. Situated in the state of Oaxaca, these communities are characterized by high and very high levels of social marginalization. From May 20 to 30, 2019, we collected primary data through semi-structured interviews (n = 30) and focus groups (n = 7) with a total of 61 informants (51 women and 10 men). We then performed an inductive systematic analysis of the data to identify documented cognitive bias associated with the decisions of individuals to participate and remain in or abandon social programs. The interviewees were living in conditions of poverty, facing difficulties in meeting even their most basic needs including food. Program participants attached far greater weight to incentives such as the basic food basket than to the other benefits offered by the program. The four localities visited maintained traditional views of domestic roles and practices, particularly regarding child-rearing, where women were in charge of childcare, home care and food preparation. Problems linked to child malnutrition were a decisive factor in the decision of residents to participate and remain in the program. Testimonials gathered during the study demonstrated that the longer the mothers remained in the program, the more they understood and adopted the concepts promoted by the interventions. In contexts marked by economic vulnerability, it is essential that ECD programs create the necessary conditions for maximizing the benefits they offer. Our analysis suggests that cognitive load and present bias were the biases that most severely affected the decision-making capacity of beneficiaries. Therefore, considering loss aversion and improving the management of incentives can help policymakers design actions that "nudge" people into making the kinds of decisions that contribute to their well-being.

Assessing the effect of an educational intervention on early childhood development among Mexican preschool children in the state of Oaxaca: a study protocol of a cluster randomized stepped-wedge trial.

BACKGROUND: Early childhood development (ECD) is essential in human capacity building and a critical element in the intergenerational process of human development. In some countries, social programs targeted at improving ECD have proven to be successful. Oaxaca is one of the States with the greatest social inequities in Mexico. Therefore, children in Oaxaca are at a high risk of suboptimal ECD. In 2014, the non-governmental organization (NGO) Un Kilo de Ayuda started to implement the Neurological and Psycho-affective Early Childhood Development Program in eighty marginalized communities of Oaxaca. In this article, we present the impact evaluation design to estimate the effect of this program on ECD. METHODS: We will use a cluster randomized stepped-wedge design with an allocation ratio of 1:1. Communities will be randomly assigned to each study group: four groups of twenty communities each. We expect that children from intervened communities will show better ECD outcomes. DISCUSSION: This study is one of the few rigorous assessments of the effect of an ECD program on the neurodevelopment of Mexican children recruited in their first 3 years of life from communities of high social vulnerability. Our study design is recommended when the way in which outcomes are measured and assessed depends on age, self-selection is present, and assignment is performed at an aggregate level. Implementation research will be conducted prior to study launch and quality control measures will be in place to maximize the fidelity of study design implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04210362.

Characterizing health care provider knowledge: Evidence from HIV services in Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Identifying approaches to improve levels of health care provider knowledge in resource-poor settings is critical. We assessed level of provider knowledge for HIV testing and counseling (HTC), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT), and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). We also explored the association between HTC, PMTCT, and VMMC provider knowledge and provider and facility characteristics. METHODS: We used data collected in 2012 and 2013. Vignettes were administered to physicians, nurses, and counselors in facilities in Kenya (66), Rwanda (67), South Africa (57), and Zambia (58). The analytic sample consisted of providers of HTC (755), PMTCT (709), and VMMC (332). HTC, PMTCT, and VMMC provider knowledge scores were constructed using item response theory (IRT). We used GLM regressions to examine associations between provider knowledge and provider and facility characteristics focusing on average patient load, provider years in position, provider working in another facility, senior staff in facility, program age, proportion of intervention exclusive staff, person-days of training in facility, and management score. We estimated three models: Model 1 estimated standard errors without clustering, Model 2 estimated robust standard errors, and Model 3 estimated standard errors clustering by facility. RESULTS: The mean knowledge score was 36 for all three interventions. In Model 1, we found that provider knowledge scores were higher among providers in facilities with senior staff and among providers in facilities with higher proportions of intervention exclusive staff. We also found negative relationships between the outcome and provider years in position, average program age, provider working in another facility, person-days of training, and management score. In Model 3, only the coefficients for provider years in position, average program age, and management score remained statistically significant at conventional levels. CONCLUSIONS: HTC, PMTCT, and VMMC provider knowledge was low in Kenya, Rwanda, South Africa, and Zambia. Our study suggests that unobservable organizational factors may facilitate communication, learning, and knowledge. On the one hand, our study shows that the presence of senior staff and staff dedication may enable knowledge acquisition. On the other hand, our study provides a note of caution on the potential knowledge depreciation correlated with the time staff spend in a position and program age.

Health care utilization during the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico: the cascade of care / Utilización de servicios de salud durante la pandemia de Covid-19 en México. Análisis de la cascada de atención en 2020

Abstract: Objective: The objective of the study is to describe trends in selected services offered at public health facilities and utilization patterns during the Covid-19 epidemic in Mexico. Materials and methods: We used administrative data and the National Health and Nutrition Survey Covid-19, 2020. Results: We found a reduction in the rates of diabetes and detection screening during 2020 compared to 2014-2019. From the demand side, we found that 18.6% of the population reported health needs, and only 34% of them received care in public health facilities. The use of private health services was extensive even among the population with social security. The uninsured and the population with high and medium socioeconomic status had a lower probability of receiving care in public health facilities. Conclusion: We document trends in selected services, as well as the cascade of care during the Covid-19 epidemic in Mexico and its potential impact on displaced health care.

Resumen: Objetivo: Describir tendencias en servicios selectos ofrecidos en unidades de salud pública y patrones de uso de servicios durante la epidemia de Covid-19 en México. Material y métodos: Se utilizaron datos administrativos y la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición Covid-19, 2020. Resultados: Se encontró una reducción en las tasas de detección y diagnóstico de diabetes en 2020 comparado con 2014-2019. Se mostró que 18.6% de la población reportó una necesidad de salud y sólo 34% utilizó servicios de salud públicos. El uso de servicios privados fue extensivo aun en la población que tiene seguridad social. La población sin seguridad social y de nivel socioeconómico alto y medio tuvo una menor probabilidad de recibir atención en servicios públicos. Conclusiones: Se documentaron tendencias en servicios relevantes y la cascada de atención durante la epidemia de Covid-19 en México y su potencial impacto en el desplazamiento de la demanda.

Incidence of catastrophic healthcare expenditure and its main determinants in Mexican households caring for a person with a mental disorder.

BACKGROUND: There are few studies on the impact of out-of-pocket mental health care expenditures and sociodemographic factors on the probability of Mexican households to incur catastrophic healthcare expenditures (CHE). OBJECTIVE: The goal of the present study was to estimate the incidence of CHE and its main determinants among the households of persons with mental disorders (MD) in Mexico. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including 387 households of persons with MD. The estimation of the CHE was obtained by the health expenditure distribution method. A Logistic Regression (LR) was used to identify the determinants of probability variation of CHE occurrence. Since we expected a proportion of CHE between 20% and 80%, we assume linearity in the probability function, therefore we additionally used an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model. RESULTS: In our sample, the incidence of CHE was 34.8%. The two mental illnesses most frequently associated with CHE were schizophrenia and hyperactive disorder (35.5% and 32.6% of CHE cases, respectively). The regression coefficients showed that for each unit (US$53.77) increase in income, the probability of CHE was reduced by 8.6%, while for each unit increase in hospitalization or medication expenditures, the probability of CHE increased by 12.9% or 19%, respectively. For each additional household member, the probability of CHE increased by 3%, and households with a male patient had a 7% greater probability of CHE. CONCLUSION: Household income, household size, hospitalization and medication expenses, and sex of the patient were significant predictors of CHE for households caring for a person with MD.

Moving away from the "unit cost". Predicting country-specific average cost curves of VMMC services accounting for variations in service delivery platforms in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: One critical element to optimize funding decisions involves the cost and efficiency implications of implementing alternative program components and configurations. Program planners, policy makers and funders alike are in need of relevant, strategic data and analyses to help them plan and implement effective and efficient programs. Contrary to widely accepted conceptions in both policy and academic arenas, average costs per service (so-called "unit costs") vary considerably across implementation settings and facilities. The objective of this work is twofold: 1) to estimate the variation of VMMC unit costs across service delivery platforms (SDP) in Sub-Saharan countries, and 2) to develop and validate a strategy to extrapolate unit costs to settings for which no data exists. METHODS: We identified high-quality VMMC cost studies through a literature review. Authors were contacted to request the facility-level datasets (primary data) underlying their results. We standardized the disparate datasets into an aggregated database which included 228 facilities in eight countries. We estimated multivariate models to assess the correlation between VMMC unit costs and scale, while simultaneously accounting for the influence of the SDP (which we defined as all possible combinations of type of facility, ownership, urbanicity, and country), on the unit cost variation. We defined SDP as any combination of such four characteristics. Finally, we extrapolated VMMC unit costs for all SDPs in 13 countries, including those not contained in our dataset. RESULTS: The average unit cost was 73 USD (IQR: 28.3, 100.7). South Africa showed the highest within-country cost variation, as well as the highest mean unit cost (135 USD). Uganda and Namibia had minimal within-country cost variation, and Uganda had the lowest mean VMMC unit cost (22 USD). Our results showed evidence consistent with economies of scale. Private ownership and Hospitals were significant determinants of higher unit costs. By identifying key cost drivers, including country- and facility-level characteristics, as well as the effects of scale we developed econometric models to estimate unit cost curves for VMMC services in a variety of clinical and geographical settings. CONCLUSION: While our study did not produce new empirical data, our results did increase by a tenfold the availability of unit costs estimates for 128 SDPs in 14 priority countries for VMMC. It is to our knowledge, the most comprehensive analysis of VMMC unit costs to date. Furthermore, we provide a proof of concept of the ability to generate predictive cost estimates for settings where empirical data does not exist.

Health care utilization during the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico: the cascade of care.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to describe trends in selected services offered at public health facilities and utilization patterns during the Covid-19 epidemic in Mexico. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used administrative data and the National Health and Nutrition Survey Covid-19, 2020. RESULTS: We found a reduction in the rates of diabetes and detection screening during 2020 compared to 2014-2019. From the demand side, we found that 18.6% of the population reported health needs, and only 34% of them received care in public health facilities. The use of private health services was extensive even among the population with social security. The uninsured and the population with high and medium socioeconomic status had a lower probability of receiving care in public health facilities. CONCLUSION: We document trends in selected services, as well as the cascade of care during the Covid-19 epidemic in Mexico and its potential impact on displaced health care.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions to achieve universal health coverage for schizophrenia in Mexico / Análisis costo-efectividad de las intervenciones para alcanzar la cobertura universal en salud para esquizofrenia en México

Abstract Introduction To achieve universal coverage in mental health, it is necessary to demonstrate which interventions should be adopted. Objective Analyze the alternatives of pharmacological and psychosocial treatment in Mexico for patients diagnosed with schizophrenia, as well as Early Intervention in Psychosis Program. Method The Extended cost effectiveness analysis (ECEA), it is implemented under scenario the option of treatment in Mexico, which includes: typical or atypical antipsychotic medication plus psychosocial treatment, assuming that all the medications will be provided to the patient, a measure of effectiveness is the years of life adjusted to disability (DALYs). Results The effect of Universal Public Financing (UPF) is reflected in avoiding 147 DALYs for every 1,000,000 habitants. In addition, has a positive effect in the avoided pocket expenditures from US $ 101,221 to US $ 787,498 according to the type of intervention. Increasing government spending has a greater impact on the poorest quintile, as a distributive effect of the budget is generated. Respect to the value of insurance, the quintile III is the one who is most willing to pay for having insurance, on the other hand, in the highest income quintile, the minimum assurance valuation was observed. Discussion and conclusion The reduction in out-of-pocket spending is uniform across all quintiles; "Early Intervention in Psychosis Program" is not viable for middle income countries, as México. The ECEA is a convenient method to assess the feasibility and affordability of mental health interventions to generate information for decision makers.

Resumen Introducción Para lograr la cobertura universal en salud mental es necesario demostrar qué intervenciones deberían ser adoptadas. Objetivo Analizar las alternativas de tratamiento farmacológico y psicosocial para pacientes con esquizofrenia incluidas, así como un Programa de Intervención Temprana en Psicosis. Método El análisis costo efectividad extendido (ECEA) se implementó bajo un escenario que incluye: medicación antipsicótica típica o atípica más tratamiento psicosocial, asumiendo que todos los medicamentos serán provistos a los pacientes, la medición de la efectividad en términos de DALYs. Resultados El efecto del financiamiento público universal se refleja en evitar 147 DALYs por cada 1, 000,000 de habitantes. Además, tiene un efecto positivo en evitar pagos de bolsillo de US $ 101,221 a US $ 787,478 de acuerdo con el tipo de intervención. Incrementar el gasto del gobierno tiene un gran impacto sobre los quintiles más pobres como efecto distributivo del presupuesto. El quintil III de ingreso tiene mayor disposición a pagar el aseguramiento mientras que el quintil más rico tiene menor disposición a pagarlo. Discusión y conclusión La reducción de los gastos de bolsillo es uniforme en todos los quintiles de ingreso, pero el "Programa de Intervención Temprana en Psicosis" no es viable generalizarlo para países de ingreso medio, como México. El ECEA es un método conveniente para evaluar la factibilidad y asequibilidad de intervenciones en salud mental para generar información para los tomadores de decisiones.

Meta-analysis of average costs of HIV testing and counselling and voluntary medical male circumcision across thirteen countries.

Objective: Explore facility-level average costs per client of HIV testing and counselling (HTC) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) services in 13 countries.Methods: Through a literature search we identified studies that reported facility-level costs of HTC or VMMC programmes. We requested the primary data from authors and standardised the disparate data sources to make them comparable. We then conducted descriptive statistics and a meta-analysis to assess the cost variation among facilities. All costs were converted to 2017 US dollars ($).Results: We gathered data from 14 studies across 13 countries and 772 facilities (552 HTC, 220 VMMC). The weighted average unit cost per client served was $15 (95% CI 12, 18) for HTC and $59 (95% CI 45, 74) for VMMC. On average, 38% of the mean unit cost for HTC corresponded to recurrent costs, 56% to personnel costs, and 6% to capital costs. For VMMC, 41% of the average unit cost corresponded to recurrent costs, 55% to personnel costs, and 4% to capital costs. We observed unit cost variation within and between countries, and lower costs in higher scale categories in all interventions.

The state of costing research for HIV interventions in sub-Saharan Africa.

The past decade has seen a growing emphasis on the production of high-quality costing data to improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of global health interventions. The need for such data is especially important for decision making and priority setting across HIV services from prevention and testing to treatment and care. To help address this critical need, the Global Health Cost Consortium was created in 2016, in part to conduct a systematic search and screening of the costing literature for HIV and TB interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The purpose of this portion of the remit was to compile, standardise, and make publicly available published cost data (peer-reviewed and gray) for public use. We limit our analysis to a review of the quantity and characteristics of published cost data from HIV interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. First, we document the production of cost data over 25 years, including density over time, geography, publication venue, authorship and type of intervention. Second, we explore key methods and reporting for characteristics including urbanicity, platform type, ownership and scale. Although the volume of HIV costing data has increased substantially on the continent, cost reporting is lacking across several dimensions. We find a dearth of cost estimates from HIV interventions in west Africa, as well as inconsistent reporting of key dimensions of cost including platform type, ownership and urbanicity. Further, we find clear evidence of a need for renewed focus on the consistent reporting of scale by authors of costing and cost-effectiveness analyses.

A meta-analysis approach for estimating average unit costs for ART using pooled facility-level primary data from African countries.

Objective: To estimate facility-level average cost for ART services and explore unit cost variations using pooled facility-level cost estimates from four HIV empirical cost studies conducted in five African countries .Methods: Through a literature search we identified studies reporting facility-level costs for ART programmes. We requested the underlying data and standardised the disparate data sources to make them comparable. Subsequently, we estimated the annual cost per patient served and assessed the cost variation among facilities and other service delivery characteristics using descriptive statistics and meta-analysis. All costs were converted to 2017 US dollars ($). Results: We obtained and standardised data from four studies across five African countries and 139 facilities. The weighted average cost per patient on ART was $251 (95% CI: 193-308). On average, 46% of the mean unit cost correspond to antiretroviral (ARVs) costs, 31% to personnel costs, 20% other recurrent costs, and 2% to capital costs. We observed a lot of variation in unit cost and scale levels between countries. We also observed a negative relationship between ART unit cost and the number of patients served in a year.Conclusion: Our approach allowed us to explore unit cost variation across contexts by pooling ART costs from multiple sources. Our research provides an example of how to estimate costs based on heterogeneous sources reconciling methodological differences across studies and contributes by giving an example on how to estimate costs based on heterogeneous sources of data. Also, our study provides additional information on costs for funders, policy-makers, and decision-makers in the process of designing or scaling-up HIV interventions.

A spatio-temporal cluster analysis of technical efficiency in the production of outpatient maternal health services and its structural correlates in México.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the formation of spatial clusters of technical efficiency (TE) in the production of outpatient maternal health services in México for the period 2008 to 2015. METHODS: We performed a longitudinal analysis of administrative and structural data related to the 243 Mexican health jurisdictions. We use window data envelopment analysis and spatial and econometric techniques. Structural correlates of each TE cluster obtained were identified estimating a pooled multinomial logit model. RESULTS: We observed an increase in the overall TE, accompanied by a reduction in its standard deviation. Furthermore, we identified positive TE spatial dependence both globally and locally. Multiple regression analysis showed that the maximum-performance TE cluster was composed of health jurisdictions located in the North of México and characterized by social marginalization, a reduced indigenous population, and a low demand for maternal health services. CONCLUSIONS: The identification of TE clusters can provide elements to induce decision makers to innovative in ways of allocating resources and manage their utilization. In México as other low- and middle-income countries, it is key to develop targeting strategies to implement specific health services innovations putting to the population to be served at the front of the strategy. This implies testing new modalities to strengthen primary health services, the empowerment of community participation, the training and allocation of health personnel that could respond adequately to population's demand, and the active involvement of competent state and local authorities in the assessment of the results of these innovations.

Improving the effective maternal-child health care coverage through synergies between supply and demand-side interventions: evidence from Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Over the last two decades, the Mexican government has released several efforts to achieve universal health coverage (UHC), based on the principles of fairness and social protection, to reduce the inequities in utilization, access, and quality of care existing in the health system. Two of the most important social public policies that have targeted the population without access to social security include the 1997 conditional cash transfers (CCT) program known as Prospera (formerly Oportunidades or Progresa) and the Seguro Popular de Salud (SPS by its Spanish initials), launched in 2003. These two programs, so far, have survived changes in the federal administrations being the most longstanding social programs targeting poor (or unprotected) populations ever in the history of modern Mexico. We tested the existence of positive synergies between demand-side (or CCT-Prospera) and supply-side (or Seguro Popular de Salud, SPS) social programs in the achievement of effective coverage (EC) of maternal-child health interventions in Mexico. METHODS: We performed a retrospective-cohort analysis to 6413 women aged 12-49 years who participated in a probabilistic survey conducted in 2012. We calculated EC as the product of three indexes: need, utilization and quality of health care. Correlates of EC were identified estimating a logistic regression model. We also presented adjusted EC by specific women groups. RESULTS: EC among beneficiaries of both programs was similar to estimates in Social Security affiliates (54%). For those not affiliated to any of the programs or those who received benefits for only one of them, the EC was 47.6% and 45.5% respectively. Adjusted estimates of EC suggest that overall, having both programs (Prospera + SPS) has a positive effect on maternal and child care coverage, which makes the observed differences in EC not statistically significant between those affiliated to both programs in comparison with the observed in the population with social security. CONCLUSIONS: Results support positive synergies between Prospera and SPS in the reduction of the gaps in EC. The most vulnerable population groups need to be reached by the combination of these programs so that public health efforts translate into greater EC of maternal health services and better maternal-child outcomes.

Old principles, persisting challenges: Maternal health care market alignment in Mexico in the search for UHC.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the alignment of supply and demand for antenatal care (ANC) in Mexico based on the definition of access provided by Donabedian: the "degree of adjustment" between resources and needs. Alignment was studied in the teenage and adult population of Mexico that lacked conventional social security between 2008 and 2015, a period of expanding financial resources for health and public health insurance coverage. Spatial econometric methods were used to analyze data from the Ministry of Health on the supply and demand for ANC in 2,314 municipalities (94% of all municipalities in Mexico). During this period, the relative weight of ANC demand among adolescents increased 37% while the production of antenatal consultations for adolescent and adult women remained unchanged. Bivariate spatial analyses of correlation between supply and demand for ANC services yielded a minimal spatial correlation, or lack of territorial correspondence, between supply and demand among women in both age groups. Spatial econometric analysis confirmed a non-significant association between supply and demand for ANC services. Our findings suggest the existence of misalignment between supply and demand for these services. This requires a reassessment of the management and delivery of ANC services at the local level in order to increase effective coverage and improve the overall performance of the health system.