Association Between Electrocardiographic Age and Cardiovascular Events in Community Settings: The Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Deep neural networks have been used to estimate age from ECGs, the electrocardiographic age (ECG-age), which predicts adverse outcomes. However, this prediction ability has been restricted to clinical settings or relatively short periods. We hypothesized that ECG-age is associated with death and cardiovascular outcomes in the long-standing community-based FHS (Framingham Heart Study). METHODS: We tested the association of ECG-age with chronological age in the FHS cohorts in ECGs from 1986 to 2021. We calculated the gap between chronological and ECG-age (Δage) and classified individuals as having normal, accelerated, or decelerated aging, if Δage was within, higher, or lower than the mean absolute error of the model, respectively. We assessed the associations of Δage, accelerated and decelerated aging with death or cardiovascular outcomes (atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, and heart failure) using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, and clinical factors. RESULTS: The study population included 9877 FHS participants (mean age, 55±13 years; 54.9% women) with 34 948 ECGs. ECG-age was correlated to chronological age (r=0.81; mean absolute error, 9±7 years). After 17±8 years of follow-up, every 10-year increase of Δage was associated with 18% increase in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23]), 23% increase in atrial fibrillation risk (HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.17-1.29]), 14% increase in myocardial infarction risk (HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.05-1.23]), and 40% increase in heart failure risk (HR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.30-1.52]), in multivariable models. In addition, accelerated aging was associated with a 28% increase in all-cause mortality (HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.14-1.45]), whereas decelerated aging was associated with a 16% decrease (HR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.74-0.95]). CONCLUSIONS: ECG-age was highly correlated with chronological age in FHS. The difference between ECG-age and chronological age was associated with death, myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure. Given the wide availability and low cost of ECG, ECG-age could be a scalable biomarker of cardiovascular risk.

Saúde Cardiovascular e Fibrilação ou Flutter Atrial: Um Estudo Transversal do ELSA-Brasil / Cardiovascular Health and Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter: A Cross-Sectional Study from ELSA-Brasil

Resumo Fundamento A associação entre o status de saúde cardiovascular ideal ( ideal cardiovascular health ( ICVH) e diagnóstico de fibrilação ou flutter atrial (FFA) foi menos estudado em comparação a outras doenças cardiovasculares. Objetivos Analisar a associação entre o diagnóstico de FFA e métricas e escores de ICVH no Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). Métodos Este estudo analisou dados de 13141 participantes com dados completos. Os traçados eletrocardiográficos foram codificados de acordo com o Sistema de Minnesota, em um centro de leitura centralizado. As métricas do ICVH (dieta, atividade física, índice de massa corporal, tabagismo, glicemia de jeju, e colesterol total) e escores do ICVH foram calculados conforme proposto pela American Heart Association . Modelos de regressão logística bruta e ajustada foram construídos para analisar associações de métricas e escores do ICVH com diagnóstico de FFA. O nível de significância foi estabelecido em 0,05. Resultados A idade mediana da amostra foi de 55 anos, e 54,4% eram mulheres. Nos modelos ajustados, os escores de ICVH não apresentaram associação significativa com diagnóstico de FFA prevalente [odds ratio (OR):0,96; intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC95%):0,80-1,16; p=0,70). Perfis de pressão arterial ideal (OR:0,33; IC95%:0,1-0,74; p=0,007) e colesterol total ideal (OR:1,88; IC95%:1,19-2,98; p=0,007) foram significativamente associados com o diagnóstico de FFA. Conclusões Não foram identificadas associações significativas entre escores de ICVH global e diagnóstico de FFA após ajuste multivariado em nossas análises, devido, ao menos em parte, às associações antagônicas da FFA com métricas de pressão arterial e de colesterol total do ICVH. Nossos resultados sugerem que estimar a prevenção da FFA por meio de escore de ICVH global pode não ser adequado, e as métricas do ICVH devem ser consideradas separadamente.

Abstract Background The association between ideal cardiovascular health (ICVH) status and atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) diagnosis has been less studied compared to other cardiovascular diseases. Objective To analyze the association between AFF diagnosis and ICVH metrics and scores in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). Methods This study analyzed data from 13,141 participants with complete data. Electrocardiographic tracings were coded according to the Minnesota Coding System, in a centralized reading center. ICVH metrics (diet, physical activity, body mass index, smoking, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and total cholesterol) and scores were calculated as proposed by the American Heart Association. Crude and adjusted binary logistic regression models were built to analyze the association of ICVH metrics and scores with AFF diagnosis. Significance level was set at 0.05. Results The sample had a median age of 55 years and 54.4% were women. In adjusted models, ICVH scores were not significantly associated with prevalent AFF diagnosis (odds ratio [OR]:0.96; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]:0.80-1.16; p=0.70). Ideal blood pressure (OR:0.33; 95% CI:0.15-0.74; p=0.007) and total cholesterol (OR:1.88; 95% CI:1.19-2.98; p=0.007) profiles were significantly associated with AFF diagnosis. Conclusions No significant associations were identified between global ICVH scores and AFF diagnosis after multivariable adjustment in our analyses, at least partially due to the antagonistic associations of AFF with blood pressure and total cholesterol ICVH metrics. Our results suggest that estimating the prevention of AFF burden using global ICVH scores may not be adequate, and ICVH metrics should be considered in separate.

Cardiovascular Health and Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter: A Cross-Sectional Study from ELSA-Brasil. / Saúde Cardiovascular e Fibrilação ou Flutter Atrial: Um Estudo Transversal do ELSA-Brasil.

BACKGROUND: The association between ideal cardiovascular health (ICVH) status and atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) diagnosis has been less studied compared to other cardiovascular diseases. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between AFF diagnosis and ICVH metrics and scores in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). METHODS: This study analyzed data from 13,141 participants with complete data. Electrocardiographic tracings were coded according to the Minnesota Coding System, in a centralized reading center. ICVH metrics (diet, physical activity, body mass index, smoking, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and total cholesterol) and scores were calculated as proposed by the American Heart Association. Crude and adjusted binary logistic regression models were built to analyze the association of ICVH metrics and scores with AFF diagnosis. Significance level was set at 0.05. RESULTS: The sample had a median age of 55 years and 54.4% were women. In adjusted models, ICVH scores were not significantly associated with prevalent AFF diagnosis (odds ratio [OR]:0.96; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]:0.80-1.16; p=0.70). Ideal blood pressure (OR:0.33; 95% CI:0.15-0.74; p=0.007) and total cholesterol (OR:1.88; 95% CI:1.19-2.98; p=0.007) profiles were significantly associated with AFF diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: No significant associations were identified between global ICVH scores and AFF diagnosis after multivariable adjustment in our analyses, at least partially due to the antagonistic associations of AFF with blood pressure and total cholesterol ICVH metrics. Our results suggest that estimating the prevention of AFF burden using global ICVH scores may not be adequate, and ICVH metrics should be considered in separate.

FUNDAMENTO: A associação entre o status de saúde cardiovascular ideal ( ideal cardiovascular health ( ICVH) e diagnóstico de fibrilação ou flutter atrial (FFA) foi menos estudado em comparação a outras doenças cardiovasculares. OBJETIVOS: Analisar a associação entre o diagnóstico de FFA e métricas e escores de ICVH no Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). MÉTODOS: Este estudo analisou dados de 13141 participantes com dados completos. Os traçados eletrocardiográficos foram codificados de acordo com o Sistema de Minnesota, em um centro de leitura centralizado. As métricas do ICVH (dieta, atividade física, índice de massa corporal, tabagismo, glicemia de jeju, e colesterol total) e escores do ICVH foram calculados conforme proposto pela American Heart Association . Modelos de regressão logística bruta e ajustada foram construídos para analisar associações de métricas e escores do ICVH com diagnóstico de FFA. O nível de significância foi estabelecido em 0,05. RESULTADOS: A idade mediana da amostra foi de 55 anos, e 54,4% eram mulheres. Nos modelos ajustados, os escores de ICVH não apresentaram associação significativa com diagnóstico de FFA prevalente [odds ratio (OR):0,96; intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC95%):0,80-1,16; p=0,70). Perfis de pressão arterial ideal (OR:0,33; IC95%:0,1-0,74; p=0,007) e colesterol total ideal (OR:1,88; IC95%:1,19-2,98; p=0,007) foram significativamente associados com o diagnóstico de FFA. CONCLUSÕES: Não foram identificadas associações significativas entre escores de ICVH global e diagnóstico de FFA após ajuste multivariado em nossas análises, devido, ao menos em parte, às associações antagônicas da FFA com métricas de pressão arterial e de colesterol total do ICVH. Nossos resultados sugerem que estimar a prevenção da FFA por meio de escore de ICVH global pode não ser adequado, e as métricas do ICVH devem ser consideradas separadamente.

Atrial Fibrillation Diagnosis using ECG Records and Self-Report in the Community: Cross-Sectional Analysis from ELSA-Brasil. / Diagnóstico de Fibrilação Atrial na Comunidade Utilizando Eletrocardiograma e Autorrelato: Análise Transversal do ELSA-Brasil.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia. Limited data can be found on AFF epidemiology in South America. OBJECTIVE: The present study sought to describe the clinical epidemiology of AFF and the use of stroke prevention medication in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) baseline assessment. METHODS: This study analyzed data from 13,260 ELSA-Brasil participants. AFF was defined according to ECG recording or by self-report. Logistic regression models were built to analyze factors associated with AFF. This study also analyzed if age and sex were associated with anticoagulant use for stroke prevention. Significance level was set at 5%. RESULTS: Median age was 51 years and 7,213 (54.4%) participants were women. AFF was present in 333 (2.5%) participants. Increasing age (odds ratio [OR]:1.05; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.04-1.07), hypertension (OR:1.44; 95%CI: 1.14-1.81), coronary heart disease (OR: 5.11; 95%CI: 3.85-6.79), heart failure (OR:7.37; 95%CI: 5.00-10.87), and rheumatic fever (OR:3.38; 95%CI: 2.28-5.02) were associated with AFF. From 185 participants with AFF and a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2, only 20 (10.8%) used anticoagulants (50.0% among those with AFF in the baseline ECG). Stroke prevention in this group was associated with a higher age (1.8% vs 17.7% in those aged ≤ 54 and ≥ 65 years, respectively; p=0.013). A trend towards a reduced anticoagulant use was observed in women (7.1% vs. 16.4% in women and men, respectively; p=0.055). CONCLUSIONS: At the ELSA-Brasil baseline, 2.5% of the participants had AFF. The lack of stroke prevention was common, which is an especially challenging point for healthcare in this setting.

FUNDAMENTO: A fibrilação ou flutter atrial (FFA) é a arritmia cardíaca sustentada mais comum. Existem poucos dados sobre a epidemiologia da FFA na América do Sul. OBJETIVO: O presente estudo procurou descrever a epidemiologia clínica da FFA e o uso de anticoagulantes na avaliação da linha de base do Estudo Longitudinal da Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). MÉTODOS: Foram analisados dados de 13.260 participantes do ELSA-Brasil. A FFA foi definida pelo eletrocardiograma ou por autorrelato. Modelos de regressão logística foram construídos para analisar fatores associados à FFA. Este estudo também analisou se idade e sexo estavam associados ao uso de anticoagulantes para evitar acidente vascular cerebral. O nível de significância foi de 5%. RESULTADOS: A idade mediana foi de 51 anos, e 7.213 (54,4%) participantes eram mulheres. A FFA foi detectada em 333 (2,5%) participantes. O aumento da idade (razão de chances [RC]:1,05; intervalo de confiança de 95% [IC95%]: 1,04-1,07), hipertensão (RC:1,44; IC95%:1,14-1,81) coronariopatia (RC: 5,11; IC95%:3,85­6,79), insuficiência cardíaca (RC:7,37; IC95%:5,00­10,87) e febre reumática (RC:3,38; IC95%:2,28­5,02) foram associadas à FFA. Dos 185 participantes com FFA e pontuação no CHA2DS2-VASc≥2, apenas 20 (10,8%) usavam anticoagulantes (50,0% entre aqueles com FFA no eletrocardiograma de linha de base). O uso de anticoagulantes nesse grupo foi associado a maior idade (1,8% vs 17,7% naqueles com idade ≤ 54 e ≥ 65 anos, respectivamente; p=0,013). Observou-se uma tendência ao menor uso de anticoagulantes em mulheres (7,1% vs. 16,4% em mulheres e homens, respectivamente; p=0,055). CONCLUSÕES: No recrutamento do ELSA-Brasil, 2,5% dos participantes tinham FFA. O baixo uso de anticoagulantes era comum, o que representa um desafio para os cuidados de saúde nesse cenário.

Diagnóstico de Fibrilação Atrial na Comunidade Utilizando Eletrocardiograma e Autorrelato: Análise Transversal do ELSA-Brasil / Atrial Fibrillation Diagnosis using ECG Records and Self-Report in the Community: Cross-Sectional Analysis from ELSA-Brasil

Resumo Fundamento: A fibrilação ou flutter atrial (FFA) é a arritmia cardíaca sustentada mais comum. Existem poucos dados sobre a epidemiologia da FFA na América do Sul. Objetivo: O presente estudo procurou descrever a epidemiologia clínica da FFA e o uso de anticoagulantes na avaliação da linha de base do Estudo Longitudinal da Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). Métodos: Foram analisados dados de 13.260 participantes do ELSA-Brasil. A FFA foi definida pelo eletrocardiograma ou por autorrelato. Modelos de regressão logística foram construídos para analisar fatores associados à FFA. Este estudo também analisou se idade e sexo estavam associados ao uso de anticoagulantes para evitar acidente vascular cerebral. O nível de significância foi de 5%. Resultados: A idade mediana foi de 51 anos, e 7.213 (54,4%) participantes eram mulheres. A FFA foi detectada em 333 (2,5%) participantes. O aumento da idade (razão de chances [RC]:1,05; intervalo de confiança de 95% [IC95%]: 1,04-1,07), hipertensão (RC:1,44; IC95%:1,14-1,81) coronariopatia (RC: 5,11; IC95%:3,85-6,79), insuficiência cardíaca (RC:7,37; IC95%:5,00-10,87) e febre reumática (RC:3,38; IC95%:2,28-5,02) foram associadas à FFA. Dos 185 participantes com FFA e pontuação no CHA2DS2-VASc≥2, apenas 20 (10,8%) usavam anticoagulantes (50,0% entre aqueles com FFA no eletrocardiograma de linha de base). O uso de anticoagulantes nesse grupo foi associado a maior idade (1,8% vs 17,7% naqueles com idade ≤ 54 e ≥ 65 anos, respectivamente; p=0,013). Observou-se uma tendência ao menor uso de anticoagulantes em mulheres (7,1% vs. 16,4% em mulheres e homens, respectivamente; p=0,055). Conclusões: No recrutamento do ELSA-Brasil, 2,5% dos participantes tinham FFA. O baixo uso de anticoagulantes era comum, o que representa um desafio para os cuidados de saúde nesse cenário.

Abstract Background: Atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia. Limited data can be found on AFF epidemiology in South America. Objective: The present study sought to describe the clinical epidemiology of AFF and the use of stroke prevention medication in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil) baseline assessment. Methods: This study analyzed data from 13,260 ELSA-Brasil participants. AFF was defined according to ECG recording or by self-report. Logistic regression models were built to analyze factors associated with AFF. This study also analyzed if age and sex were associated with anticoagulant use for stroke prevention. Significance level was set at 5%. Results: Median age was 51 years and 7,213 (54.4%) participants were women. AFF was present in 333 (2.5%) participants. Increasing age (odds ratio [OR]:1.05; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.04-1.07), hypertension (OR:1.44; 95%CI: 1.14-1.81), coronary heart disease (OR: 5.11; 95%CI: 3.85-6.79), heart failure (OR:7.37; 95%CI: 5.00-10.87), and rheumatic fever (OR:3.38; 95%CI: 2.28-5.02) were associated with AFF. From 185 participants with AFF and a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2, only 20 (10.8%) used anticoagulants (50.0% among those with AFF in the baseline ECG). Stroke prevention in this group was associated with a higher age (1.8% vs 17.7% in those aged ≤ 54 and ≥ 65 years, respectively; p=0.013). A trend towards a reduced anticoagulant use was observed in women (7.1% vs. 16.4% in women and men, respectively; p=0.055). Conclusions: At the ELSA-Brasil baseline, 2.5% of the participants had AFF. The lack of stroke prevention was common, which is an especially challenging point for healthcare in this setting.

Deep neural network-estimated electrocardiographic age as a mortality predictor.

The electrocardiogram (ECG) is the most commonly used exam for the evaluation of cardiovascular diseases. Here we propose that the age predicted by artificial intelligence (AI) from the raw ECG (ECG-age) can be a measure of cardiovascular health. A deep neural network is trained to predict a patient's age from the 12-lead ECG in the CODE study cohort (n = 1,558,415 patients). On a 15% hold-out split, patients with ECG-age more than 8 years greater than the chronological age have a higher mortality rate (hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, p < 0.001), whereas those with ECG-age more than 8 years smaller, have a lower mortality rate (HR 0.78, p < 0.001). Similar results are obtained in the external cohorts ELSA-Brasil (n = 14,236) and SaMi-Trop (n = 1,631). Moreover, even for apparent normal ECGs, the predicted ECG-age gap from the chronological age remains a statistically significant risk predictor. These results show that the AI-enabled analysis of the ECG can add prognostic information.

Declining antibody levels to Trypanosoma cruzi correlate with polymerase chain reaction positivity and electrocardiographic changes in a retrospective cohort of untreated Brazilian blood donors.

BACKGROUND: Although infection with Trypanosoma cruzi is thought to be lifelong, less than half of those infected develop cardiomyopathy, suggesting greater parasite control or even clearance. Antibody levels appear to correlate with T. cruzi (antigen) load. We test the association between a downwards antibody trajectory, PCR positivity and ECG alterations in untreated individuals with Chagas disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This is a retrospective cohort of T. cruzi seropositive blood donors. Paired blood samples (index donation and follow-up) were tested using the VITROS Immunodiagnostic Products Anti-T.cruzi (Chagas) assay (Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, Raritan NJ) and PCR performed on the follow-up sample. A 12-lead resting ECG was performed. Significant antibody decline was defined as a reduction of > 1 signal-to-cutoff (S/CO) unit on the VITROS assay. Follow-up S/CO of < 4 was defined as borderline/low. 276 untreated seropositive blood donors were included. The median (IQR) follow-up was 12.7 years (8.5-16.9). 56 (22.1%) subjects had a significant antibody decline and 35 (12.7%) had a low/borderline follow-up result. PCR positivity was lower in the falling (26.8% vs 52.8%, p = 0.001) and low/borderline (17.1% vs 51.9%, p < 0.001) antibody groups, as was the rate of ECG abnormalities. Falling and low/borderline antibody groups were predominantly composed of individuals with negative PCR and normal ECG findings: 64% and 71%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Low and falling antibody levels define a phenotype of possible spontaneous parasite clearance.

Major Electrocardiographic Abnormalities According to the Minnesota Coding System Among Brazilian Adults (from the ELSA-Brasil Cohort Study).

The electrocardiogram is a simple and useful clinical tool; nevertheless, few studies have evaluated the prevalence of electrocardiographic abnormalities in the Latin American population. This study aims to evaluate the major electrocardiographic abnormalities according to the Minnesota coding system in Brazilian adults, stratified by gender, age, race, and cardiovascular risk factors. Data from 14,424 adults (45.8% men, age 35 to 74 years) were obtained at baseline of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil), according to standardized protocol. The electrocardiogram were obtained with the Burdick Atria 6100 machine, stored on Pyramis System, automatically coded according to the Minnesota coding system by the Glasgow University software and then manually revised. Major abnormalities were more prevalent in men than women (11.3% and 7.9%, p <0.001). These differences were consistent through the different age groups, race, and number of cardiovascular risk factors. Electrocardiographic major abnormalities were more prevalent in black participants for both men (black: 15.1%, mixed: 10.4%, white: 11.1%, p = 0.001) and women (black: 10%, mixed: 7.6%, white: 7.2%, p = 0.004). In conclusion, in this large sample of Brazilian adults, the prevalence of major electrocardiographic abnormalities was higher among men, the elderly, black, and among people with more cardiovascular risk factors.