Accelerating model-informed decisions for COVID-19 vaccine candidates using a model-based meta-analysis approach.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has increased the need for innovative quantitative decision tools to support rapid development of safe and efficacious vaccines against SARS-CoV-2. To meet that need, we developed and applied a model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) approach integrating non-clinical and clinical immunogenicity and protection data. METHODS: A systematic literature review identified studies of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 in rhesus macaques (RM) and humans. Summary-level data of 13 RM and 8 clinical trials were used in the analysis. A RM MBMA model was developed to quantify the relationship between serum neutralizing (SN) titres after vaccination and peak viral load (VL) post-challenge in RM. The translation of the RM MBMA model to a clinical protection model was then carried out to predict clinical efficacies based on RM data alone. Subsequently, clinical SN and efficacy data were integrated to develop three predictive models of efficacy - a calibrated RM MBMA, a joint (RM-Clinical) MBMA, and the clinical MBMA model. The three models were leveraged to predict efficacies of vaccine candidates not included in the model and efficacies against newer strains of SARS-CoV-2. FINDINGS: Clinical efficacies predicted based on RM data alone were in reasonable agreement with the reported data. The SN titre predicted to provide 50% efficacy was estimated to be about 21% of the mean human convalescent titre level, and that value was consistent across the three models. Clinical efficacies predicted from the MBMA models agreed with reported efficacies for two vaccine candidates (BBV152 and CoronaVac) not included in the modelling and for efficacies against delta variant. INTERPRETATION: The three MBMA models are predictive of protection against SARS-CoV-2 and provide a translational framework to enable early Go/No-Go and study design decisions using non-clinical and/or limited clinical immunogenicity data in the development of novel SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. FUNDING: This study was funded by Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.

Forward and reverse translational approaches to predict efficacy of neutralizing respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) antibody prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: Neutralizing mAbs can prevent communicable viral diseases. MK-1654 is a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) F glycoprotein neutralizing monoclonal antibody (mAb) under development to prevent RSV infection in infants. Development and validation of methods to predict efficacious doses of neutralizing antibodies across patient populations exposed to a time-varying force of infection (i.e., seasonal variation) are necessary. METHODS: Five decades of clinical trial literature were leveraged to build a model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) describing the relationship between RSV serum neutralizing activity (SNA) and clinical endpoints. The MBMA was validated by backward translation to animal challenge experiments and forward translation to predict results of a recent RSV mAb trial. MBMA predictions were evaluated against a human trial of 70 participants who received either placebo or one of four dose-levels of MK-1654 and were challenged with RSV [NCT04086472]. The MBMA was used to perform clinical trial simulations and predict efficacy of MK-1654 in the infant target population. FINDINGS: The MBMA established a quantitative relationship between RSV SNA and clinical endpoints. This relationship was quantitatively consistent with animal model challenge experiments and results of a recently published clinical trial. Additionally, SNA elicited by increasing doses of MK-1654 in humans reduced RSV symptomatic infection rates with a quantitative relationship that approximated the MBMA. The MBMA indicated a high probability that a single dose of ≥ 75 mg of MK-1654 will result in prophylactic efficacy (> 75% for 5 months) in infants. INTERPRETATION: An MBMA approach can predict efficacy of neutralizing antibodies against RSV and potentially other respiratory pathogens.

V2 ACHER: Visualization of complex trial data in pharmacometric analyses with covariates.

Pharmacometric models can enhance clinical decision making, with covariates exposing potential contributions to variability of subpopulation characteristics, for example, demographics or disease status. Intuitive visualization of models with multiple covariates is needed because sparsity of data in visualizations trellised by covariate values can raise concerns about the credibility of the underlying model. V2 ACHER, introduced here, is a stepwise transformation of data that can be applied to a variety of static (non-ordinary-differential-equation-based) pharmacometric analyses. This work uses four examples of increasing complexity to show how the transformation elucidates the relationship between observations and model results and how it can also be used in visual predictive checks to confirm the quality of a model. V2 ACHER facilitates consistent, intuitive, single-plot visualization of a multicovariate model with a complex data set, thereby enabling easier model communication for modelers and for cross-functional development teams and facilitating confident use in support of decisions.

Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of the cytolytic anti-CD38 human monoclonal antibody TAK-079 in monkey - model assisted preparation for the first in human trial.

We are studying the fully human, IgG1λ cytolytic monoclonal antibody TAK-079, which binds CD38. CD38 is expressed on plasma and natural killer (NK) cells constitutively and upregulated on subsets of B and T lymphocytes upon activation. TAK-079 cross-reacts with CD38 expressed by cynomolgus monkeys and depletes subsets of NK, B, and T cells. Therefore, safety and function of TAK-079 was evaluated in this species, prior to clinical development, using bioanalytical, and flow cytometry assays. We pooled the data from eight studies in healthy monkeys (dose range 0.03-100 mg/kg) and developed mathematical models that describe the pharmacokinetics and the exposure-effect relationship for NK cells, B cells, and T cells. NK cell depletion was identified as the most sensitive pharmacodynamic effect of TAK-079. It was adequately described with a turnover model (C50  = 27.5 µg/mL on depletion rate) and complete depletion was achieved with an IV dose of 0.3 mg/kg. Intermediate effects on T-cell counts were described with a direct response model (C50  = 11.9 µg/mL) and on B-cell counts with a 4-transit-compartment model (C50  = 19.8 µg/mL on depletion rate). Our analyses substantiate the observation that NK, B and T cells are cleared by TAK-079 at different rates and required different time spans to replete the blood compartment. The models were used to simulate pharmacokinetic and cell depletion profiles in humans after applying a straightforward scaling approach for monoclonal antibodies in preparation for the first-in-human clinical trial.

Exploratory Literature Meta-Analysis to Characterize the Relationship Between Early and Longer Term Body Weight Loss for Antiobesity Compounds.

The presented analysis was performed to characterize the relationship between treatment-related early (week 4) and longer term (3-6 months) weight loss to understand the potential utility of 4-week proof-of-mechanism studies in the early decision-making process during clinical development of new antiobesity compounds. A regression-based meta-analysis was performed leveraging publically available clinical outcomes data to (1) characterize the within-trial relationship between treatment-related early and longer term body weight loss and (2) identify and quantify key covariate effects on this relationship. Data from 89 randomized clinical trials with 209 treatment arms, representing observations from 54 461 patients and 9 treatments, were available for the meta-analysis. Results indicated that (1) there is a correlation between treatment-related early and longer term body weight loss (r > 0.9), (2) baseline body weight influences the relationship between early and longer term weight loss, whereas comorbidity such as type 2 diabetes mellitus, class of drugs including GLP-1 analogues and the antiobesity compounds lorcaserin or phentermine/topiramate showed no significant effects on this relationship. The model was externally evaluated with data from the investigational compound beloranib, for which longer term weight loss could be successfully predicted based on early response data. Based on these results, the identified strong relationship between treatment-related early and longer term weight loss appears to be independent of mechanism of action. Thus, findings from this analysis can optimize design of clinical studies and facilitate development of new anti-obesity compounds.

The variability in beta-cell function in placebo-treated subjects with type 2 diabetes: application of the weight-HbA1c-insulin-glucose (WHIG) model.

AIM: The weight-glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1C)-insulin-glucose (WHIG) model describes the effects of changes in weight on insulin sensitivity (IS) in newly diagnosed, obese subjects receiving placebo treatment. This model was applied to a wider population of placebo-treated subjects, to investigate factors influencing the variability in IS and ß-cell function. METHODS: The WHIG model was applied to the WHIG dataset (Study 1) and two other placebo datasets (Studies 2 and 3). Studies 2 and 3 consisted of nonobese subjects and subjects with advanced type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Body weight, fasting serum insulin (FSI), fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and HbA1c were used for nonlinear mixed-effects modelling (using NONMEM v7.2 software). Sources of interstudy variability (ISV) and potential covariates (age, gender, diabetes duration, ethnicity, compliance) were investigated. RESULTS: An ISV for baseline parameters (body weight and ß-cell function) was required. The baseline ß-cell function was significantly lower in subjects with advanced T2DM (median difference: Study 2: 15.6%, P < 0.001; Study 3: 22.7%, P < 0.001) than in subjects with newly diagnosed T2DM (Study 1). A reduction in the estimated insulin secretory response in subjects with advanced T2DM was observed but diabetes duration was not a significant covariate. CONCLUSION: The WHIG model can be used to describe the changes in weight, IS and ß-cell function in the diabetic population. IS remained relatively stable between subjects but a large ISV in ß-cell function was observed. There was a trend towards decreasing ß-cell responsiveness with diabetes duration, and further studies, incorporating subjects with a longer history of diabetes, are required.

Population pharmacokinetic meta-analysis to bridge ferumoxytol plasma pharmacokinetics across populations.

BACKGROUND: Ferumoxytol is approved for the treatment of iron-deficiency anaemia (IDA) in adult patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Ferumoxytol has recently been investigated for use in all-cause IDA. This analysis was employed to bridge ferumoxytol pharmacokinetics (PK) across populations of healthy subjects and patients with CKD on haemodialysis, and to then make informed inferences regarding the PK behaviour of ferumoxytol in the all-cause IDA population. METHODS: The data analysis was performed using NONMEM. Selected parameters were included for covariate testing. Investigations to determine if changes in volume of distribution during haemodialysis improved the model fit were also conducted. The final model was used to simulate PK in healthy volunteers (HVs) and CKD patients with and without haemodialysis. RESULTS: The final model was a two-compartment model with non-linear elimination. During haemodialysis, the central volume V1 was estimated to be reduced by 0.198 L/h. A positive relationship was identified between initial V1 and observed weight loss during haemodialysis. V1 increased by 0.614 % per kilogram of body weight, and females had an 18.3 % lower V1 than males. Differences between simulated profiles for different populations were marginal: maximum concentration (Cmax) of 209 vs. 204 ng/mL and area under the curve from time zero to infinity (AUCinf) of 5,980 vs. 5,920 ng·h/mL in HVs and CKD non-haemodialysis patients, respectively, for a single dose of 510 mg. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that ferumoxytol PK are comparable between HVs and CKD patients. Furthermore, the results are representative of the PK in other populations and can be used to bridge to subjects with general IDA.

Utility of a population pharmacokinetic meta analysis during the approval process of teduglutide for the treatment of short bowel syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: Teduglutide is a recombinant analogue of human glucagonlike peptide-2 (GLP-2) that was recently approved by the US and European regulatory agencies FDA and EMA for the treatment of short bowel syndrome (SBS). The objectives of this work were, firstly, to develop a population pharmacokinetic (popPK) model based on the available PK data of the entire clinical development program and, secondly, to utilize the model for the justification of the proposed dosing regimen. The exploratory analysis was based on a previously established structural PK model and focused primarily on the investigation of covariate effects. RESULTS: The plasma concentrationtime profiles of teduglutide after subcutaneous application were adequately described by a 1-compartment model with first order absorption and elimination. The area under the curve (AUC) was lower for male subjects, for subjects with higher creatinine clearance, for overweight subjects, and for SBS patients. However, except for subjects with severe renal impairment no clinically relevant effects on AUC were identified. CONCLUSION: Our model-based analysis supports the approved dose adjustment for SBS patients with and without renal impairments maintaining the exposure in a value range with acceptable variance for the target population.

An innovative phase I population pharmacokinetic approach to investigate the pharmacokinetics of an intranasal fentanyl spray in healthy subjects.

BACKGROUND: Intranasal Fentanyl Spray (INFS) was developed for the treatment of breakthrough pain (BTP) in cancer patients using a new route of administration. Dose strengths of 50, 100, and 200 µg INFS (Instanyl®) are currently on the market, however, some adult cancer patients with BTP may require higher doses up to 400 µg INFS. OBJECTIVE: As pharmacokinetic (PK) samples from cancer patients with BTP are hard to obtain, PK of 400 µg INFS was investigated in healthy volunteers. Using prior knowledge from an available population PK (PopPK) model, a PK trial design was derived which aimed for short study duration and reduced trial costs without jeopardizing trial readout. METHODS: Different trial designs to investigate the systemic exposure of 400 µg INFS were simulated using the available PopPK model. Parameters with strong influence on Cmax and AUC, i.e., clearance (CL), absorption rate constant (KA), central volume (V2) and bioavailability (F1), were estimated, while other parameters were fixed to previous model estimates. The concentration-time data obtained from the applied trial design was subjected to a PopPK analysis. From the final individual parameter estimates, single-dose concentration-time profiles with wash-out were simulated, and AUC and Cmax values were calculated as for a classical trial design. RESULTS: The final trial design was a two-sequence, three period, and three-treatment cross-over design with no wash-out intervals between treatments. 20 subjects received three doses of INFS. Four hours after a single dose of 200 µg INFS (Treatment A), subjects received either a single dose of 400 µg INFS (Treatment B) or two single doses (10 minutes apart) of 400 µg INFS (Treatment C). At t = 24 hours subjects received either Treatment B or Treatment C as cross-over. Plasma samples were taken up to 72 hours. The study duration per subject was less than 4 days. PopPK analysis and validation were performed successfully. The estimated primary PK parameters were F1 = 59%, CL=33.5 l/h, V2 = 68.8 l and KA = 12.8 1/h. The ratio analysis of the least square geometric means of dose normalized AUC∞ values resulted in point estimates of 97 - 104%, indicating dose proportionality in the investigated dose range of 200 µg - 2 × 400 µg. CONCLUSION: The implementation of a PopPK approach in the planning and analysis of this trial yielded an innovative, cost- and time-saving trial design that successfully delivered the required information about the PK of the 400 µg dose strength within this small clinical study.

Pharmacokinetics of linezolid in bone tissue investigated by in vivo microdialysis.

Pharmacokinetics of unbound anti-infectives in bone is difficult to characterize. The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of the microdialysis technique to cancellous bone for single dose pharmacokinetic investigations of the anti-infective linezolid. Serial bone biopsies (left tibia) and microdialysate samples (right tibia: 2 catheters) as well as plasma and bone marrow samples were obtained from 10 pigs. The concentrations of linezolid reached bacteriostatic levels in plasma, bone marrow, bone biopsies and microdialysates. With the use of microdialysis we here present the first results for unbound linezolid bone penetration. Unbound linezolid concentrations in bone obtained by microdialysis were lower than might have been expected from previous bone biopsy studies. To achieve effective concentrations (24 h) for susceptible organisms the chosen dose of linezolid might not be sufficient.

Effect of severity of sepsis on tissue concentrations of linezolid.

OBJECTIVES: In the present study, we examined whether differences in the severity of sepsis translate to differences in the pharmacokinetic profile of linezolid in plasma and the interstitium of target tissues after a single intravenous dose of 600 mg by means of the microdialysis technique. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 24 patients were included in the trial. Sixteen patients suffered from septic shock and eight patients presented with severe sepsis. Sepsis was diagnosed and verified according to the criteria of the American College of Chest Physicians/Society of Critical Care Medicine Consensus Conference Committee. Historic data derived from a previous study determining the pharmacokinetic profiles of linezolid in tissues and plasma in young healthy volunteers served as controls. RESULTS: In the present study, the AUC for free linezolid from 0 to 24 h (fAUC(0-24)) ranged from 50 to 71 mg x h/L after single-dose administration in patients presenting with severe sepsis or septic shock. The mathematically extrapolated fAUC(0-24) ranged from 100 to 146 mg x h/L for twice-daily administration and a dosing interval of 12 h. No statistically significant difference in key pharmacokinetic parameters was detected between patients suffering from severe sepsis and septic shock (P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These data indicated that the severity of sepsis has no substantial effect on the pharmacokinetic profile of linezolid in plasma and in the interstitium of soft tissues.

Pharmacokinetics of unbound linezolid in plasma and tissue interstitium of critically ill patients after multiple dosing using microdialysis.

The antimicrobial agent linezolid is approved for the treatment of severe infections caused by, e.g., methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus strains. In order to evaluate the penetration of linezolid into the interstitial space fluid (ISF) of subcutaneous adipose tissue and skeletal muscle of the target population, a microdialysis study was performed with 12 patients with sepsis or septic shock after multiple intravenous infusions. Unbound linezolid concentrations were determined for plasma and microdialysates by use of a validated high-performance liquid chromatography method. Individual compartmental pharmacokinetic (PK) analysis was performed using WinNonlin. In vivo microdialysis was found to be feasible for the determination of unbound linezolid concentrations at steady state in the ISF of critically ill patients. On average, linezolid showed good distribution into ISF but with high interindividual variability. A two-compartment model was fitted to unbound concentrations in plasma with a geometric mean distribution volume of 62.9 liters and a mean clearance of 9.18 liters/h at steady state. However, disposition characteristics changed intraindividually within the time course. In addition, an integrated model for simultaneous prediction of concentrations in all matrices was developed and revealed similar results. Based on the model-predicted unbound concentrations in ISF, a scheme of more-frequent daily dosing of linezolid for some critically ill patients might be taken into consideration to avoid subinhibitory unbound concentrations in the infected tissue. The developed integrated model will be a valuable basis for further PK data analysis to explore refined dosing guidelines that achieve effective antimicrobial therapy in all patients by use of the population PK approach.

Pharmacokinetics of enfuvirtide in patients treated in typical routine clinical settings.

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) is gaining importance for improving the success of antiretroviral treatment in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients. However, enfuvirtide (ENF) concentrations are not regularly determined. The objective of this work was to study the pharmacokinetics (PK) of ENF in patients treated in routine clinical settings, to develop a population PK model describing the concentration-time profile, and to establish PK reference values. A liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method was developed and applied to serum samples submitted for TDM. A two-compartment model with linear absorption and elimination was fitted to 329 concentrations from 131 patients. The PK model was used for simulations resulting in percentile curves for ENF levels for the full dosing interval. The model predicted that a median concentration of 1,968 ng/ml would be reached 12 h after administration of 90 mg of ENF, and 23% and 58% of patients are expected to have concentrations below 1,000 ng/ml and 2,200 ng/ml, respectively. Both values have been proposed as cutoffs for virological efficacy. The median maximum concentration of drug in serum (Cmax) of 3,943 ng/ml, predicted for 3 h after drug administration, is lower than the Cmax reported previously. We found an enormous interpatient variability at every time point, with concentration spectrums covering >1 log and 52% and 123% interindividual variabilities in the typical clearance and volume of distribution, respectively, in contrast to preexisting PK data. In summary, ENF levels are lower and more variable than expected. Many patients may achieve insufficient concentrations. Further covariate analysis in the population PK model might help to identify factors influencing the variability in ENF concentrations.

Urea as an endogenous surrogate in human microdialysis to determine relative recovery of drugs: analytics and applications.

During in vivo microdialysis studies time-consuming and laborious bedside calibration methods, e.g. retrodialysis, have to be performed. To reduce the burden on the patient it would be desirable to establish a reliable, time-saving calibration technique to obtain the in vivo recovery describing the relative drug transfer across the membrane of the microdialysis probe. The performed study aimed to evaluate and validate the use of urea as an endogenous reference compound to determine relative in vivo recovery of anti-infectives, e.g. linezolid used herein as model drug. In order to meet the special requirements imposed by microdialysis to measure urea concentrations in very small sample volumes ( approximately 10 microL) a photometric assay in 96-well microtiter plates was established based on the method of Berthelot. Subsequently, concentration- and flow rate-dependence were evaluated in vitro to determine the relative recovery (RR) of urea. Finally, urea and linezolid concentrations in human microdialysis samples were measured. The developed assay was validated according to international guidelines and met all requirements. Relative in vitro recovery was found to be independent from concentration and dependent on flow rate. Subsequently, relative in vivo recovery of urea was correlated with relative in vivo recovery of linezolid obtained by the traditional retrodialysis method. In healthy volunteers, the mean ratio of the relative recovery of linezolid to the relative recovery of urea was 0.6 for the subcutaneous (s.c.: CV 33.4%, n = 48) and 0.7 for the intramuscular probe (i.m.: CV 18.8%, n = 40), respectively. In critically ill patients this ratio was 0.7 for both tissues (s.c.: CV 32.8%, n = 18; i.m.: CV 22.1%, n = 17). Successful calibration of the urea reference technique without the need to use in vitro data will further promote the application of microdialysis in clinical studies especially in critically ill patients, as it reduces the imposed burden to a minimum.

Microdialysis--theoretical background and recent implementation in applied life-sciences.

In the past decade microdialysis has become a method of choice in the study of unbound tissue concentrations of both endogenous and exogenous substances. Microdialysis has been shown to offer information about substances directly at the site of action while being well tolerable and safe. The large variety of its field of application has been demonstrated. However, a few challenges have to be met to make this method generally applicable in routine applications. This review will provide an overview over theoretical aspects that have to be considered during the implementation of microdialysis. Moreover, a comparison between microdialysis and other tissue sampling techniques will demonstrate advantages and limitations of the methods mentioned. Subsequently, it will present a critical synopsis of a variety of scientific/biomedical applications of this method with emphasis on the most recent literature, focussing on target tissues while giving examples of substances examined. It is concluded that microdialysis will be of great value in future investigations of pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics and in monitoring of disease status and progression.

Successful management of discovered pH dependence in vancomycin recovery studies: novel HPLC method for microdialysis and plasma samples.

Vancomycin is a glycopeptide antibiotic approved for the treatment of serious infections or patients allergic to beta-lactams. A rapid HPLC assay using UV detection for the determination in microdialysate and human plasma was developed. After sample preparation, using methanol and trichloroacetic acid for plasma and water for microdialysate, 20 microL were injected and separated on a RP(18) column. Overall, the assay exhibited good precision and accuracy. The diffusion properties of vancomycin investigated in in vitro microdialysis experiments revealed an unfavourable concentration dependence avertable by keeping a constant pH using phosphate buffer as perfusate. The mean relative recoveries were 27.8% [coefficient of variation (CV) 11.1%] and 33.2% (CV 8.3%) for retrodialysis and recovery experiments, respectively. Following characterization of vancomycin in in vitro microdialysis, the developed setting is suitable for application in (pre-)clinical studies.