Risk of Thyroid Nodules in Residents of Belarus Exposed to Chernobyl Fallout as Children and Adolescents.

Context: Although radiation exposure is an important predictor of thyroid cancer on diagnosis of a thyroid nodule, the relationship between childhood radiation exposure and thyroid nodules has not been comprehensively evaluated. Objective: To examine the association between internal I-131 thyroid dose and thyroid nodules in young adults exposed during childhood. Design, setting, and participants: In this cross-sectional study, we screened residents of Belarus aged ≤18 years at the time of the Chernobyl nuclear accident for thyroid disease (median age, 21 years) with thyroid palpation, ultrasonography, blood/urine analysis, and medical follow-up when appropriate. Eligible participants (N = 11,421) had intact thyroid glands and doses based on direct individual thyroid activity measurements. Main outcome measures: Excess odds ratios per Gray (EOR/Gy, scaled at age 5 years at exposure) for any thyroid nodule and for nodules grouped by cytology/histology, diameter size, and singularity. Results: Risk of any thyroid nodule increased significantly with I-131 dose and, for a given dose, with younger age at exposure. The EOR/Gy (95% confidence intervals) for neoplastic nodules (3.82; 0.87 to 15.52) was significantly higher than for nonneoplastic nodules (0.32; <0.03 to 0.70) and did not vary by size; whereas the EOR/Gy for nonneoplastic nodules did vary by size (P = 0.02) and was 1.55 (0.36 to 5.46) for nodules ≥10 mm and 0.02 (<-0.02 to 0.70) for nodules <10 mm. EORs/Gy for single and multiple nodules were comparable. Conclusions: Childhood exposure to internal I-131 is associated with increased risk of neoplastic thyroid nodules of any size and nonneoplastic nodules ≥10 mm.

Risk of thyroid follicular adenoma among children and adolescents in Belarus exposed to iodine-131 after the Chornobyl accident.

Several studies reported an increased risk of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodines, chiefly iodine-131 ((131)I), after the 1986 Chornobyl (Ukrainian spelling) nuclear power plant accident. The risk of benign thyroid tumors following such radiation exposure is much less well known. We have previously reported a novel finding of significantly increased risk of thyroid follicular adenoma in a screening study of children and adolescents exposed to the Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine. To verify this finding, we analyzed baseline screening data from a cohort of 11,613 individuals aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident in Belarus (mean age at screening = 21 years). All participants had individual (131)I doses estimated from thyroid radioactivity measurements and were screened according to a standardized protocol. We found a significant linear dose response for 38 pathologically confirmed follicular adenoma cases. The excess odds ratio per gray of 2.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.41, 13.1) was similar in males and females but decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure (P < 0.01), with the highest radiation risks estimated for those exposed at <2 years of age. Follicular adenoma radiation risks were not significantly modified by most indicators of past and current iodine deficiency. The present study confirms the (131)I-associated increases in risk of follicular adenoma in the Ukrainian population and adds new evidence on the risk increasing with decreasing age at exposure.

Impact of Uncertainties in Exposure Assessment on Thyroid Cancer Risk among Persons in Belarus Exposed as Children or Adolescents Due to the Chernobyl Accident.

BACKGROUND: The excess incidence of thyroid cancer in Ukraine and Belarus observed a few years after the Chernobyl accident is considered to be largely the result of 131I released from the reactor. Although the Belarus thyroid cancer prevalence data has been previously analyzed, no account was taken of dose measurement error. METHODS: We examined dose-response patterns in a thyroid screening prevalence cohort of 11,732 persons aged under 18 at the time of the accident, diagnosed during 1996-2004, who had direct thyroid 131I activity measurement, and were resident in the most radio-actively contaminated regions of Belarus. Three methods of dose-error correction (regression calibration, Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) were applied. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant (p<0.001) increasing dose-response for prevalent thyroid cancer, irrespective of regression-adjustment method used. Without adjustment for dose errors the excess odds ratio was 1.51 Gy- (95% CI 0.53, 3.86), which was reduced by 13% when regression-calibration adjustment was used, 1.31 Gy- (95% CI 0.47, 3.31). A Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method yielded an excess odds ratio of 1.48 Gy- (95% CI 0.53, 3.87), about 2% lower than the unadjusted analysis. The Bayesian method yielded a maximum posterior excess odds ratio of 1.16 Gy- (95% BCI 0.20, 4.32), 23% lower than the unadjusted analysis. There were borderline significant (p = 0.053-0.078) indications of downward curvature in the dose response, depending on the adjustment methods used. There were also borderline significant (p = 0.102) modifying effects of gender on the radiation dose trend, but no significant modifying effects of age at time of accident, or age at screening as modifiers of dose response (p>0.2). CONCLUSIONS: In summary, the relatively small contribution of unshared classical dose error in the current study results in comparatively modest effects on the regression parameters.

Analysis of thyroid malignant pathologic findings identified during 3 rounds of screening (1997-2008) of a cohort of children and adolescents from belarus exposed to radioiodines after the Chernobyl accident.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies of children and adolescents who were exposed to radioactive iodine-131 (I-131) after the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident in Ukraine exhibited a significant dose-related increase in the risk of thyroid cancer, but the association of radiation doses with tumor histologic and morphologic features is not clear. METHODS: A cohort of 11,664 individuals in Belarus who were aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident underwent 3 cycles of thyroid screening during 1997 to 2008. I-131 thyroid doses were estimated from individual thyroid activity measurements taken within 2 months after the accident and from dosimetric questionnaire data. Demographic, clinical, and tumor pathologic characteristics of the patients with thyroid cancer were analyzed using 1-way analysis of variance, chi-square tests or Fisher exact tests, and logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 158 thyroid cancers were identified as a result of screening. The majority of patients had T1a and T1b tumors (93.7%), with many positive regional lymph nodes (N1; 60.6%) but few distant metastases (M1; <1%). Higher I-131 doses were associated with higher frequency of solid and diffuse sclerosing variants of thyroid cancer (P < .01) and histologic features of cancer aggressiveness, such as lymphatic vessel invasion, intrathyroidal infiltration, and multifocality (all P < .03). Latency was not correlated with radiation dose. Fifty-two patients with self-reported thyroid cancers which were diagnosed before 1997 were younger at the time of the accident and had a higher percentage of solid variant cancers compared with patients who had screening-detected thyroid cancers (all P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: I-131 thyroid radiation doses were associated with a significantly greater frequency of solid and diffuse sclerosing variants of thyroid cancer and various features of tumor aggressiveness.

The usual ultrasonographic features of thyroid cancer are less frequent in small tumors that develop after a long latent period after the Chernobyl radiation release accident.

BACKGROUND: The Chernobyl accident resulted in an unprecedented number of radiation-induced thyroid cancers in young individuals as detected by national and international screening programs. The vast majority of thyroid malignancies were papillary carcinomas that, despite being similar by histopathology, displayed large variability in clinical course. The correlations between ultrasound (US) and clinicopathological features in young patients with radiation-induced thyroid cancer, however, have not been well studied. Because of the importance of US for deciding which subjects should have fine-needle aspiration biopsy, we assessed the US features of papillary thyroid carcinoma in patients exposed to Chernobyl fallouts. DESIGN: We performed a retrospective multivariate logistic regression analysis of US features, clinicopathological data, and the latency period between radiation exposure and the diagnosis of cancer in 94 patients who were 10.6-34.3 years old (16.5 +/- 6.2, mean +/- standard deviation) at the time of diagnosis and 0.1-18.0 years old (5.6 +/- 4.2) at the time of the Chernobyl accident. RESULTS: Nodules greater than 10 mm were associated with the higher frequency of irregular margins (p = 0.001), longer period of latency (p = 0.016), and bilateral lymph node involvement (p = 0.025). Irregular tumor margins correlated with the shorter period of latency (p = 0.009) and unilateral nodal disease (p = 0.010). Hypoechoic nodules were observed more frequently in female patients (p = 0.012), in the absence of halo (p = 0.003) or calcifications (p = 0.005). Hypoechogenicity also correlated with the shorter latency (p = 0.015) and younger age of patients (p = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Irregular nodule margins, a usual sign of malignancy, are less useful in detecting thyroid cancers in radiation-exposed patients with tumors less than 10 mm. Thyroid cancers that are detected after longer latent periods display less of the US features characteristic of a malignant process, while benign US features are observed more frequently. Therefore, we recommend fine-needle aspiration biopsy to ensure early diagnosis of thyroid cancer for patients with a history of radiation exposure, even if their nodules are less than 10 mm.

A cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases after the Chornobyl accident: objectives, design and methods.

The thyroid gland in children is one of the organs that is most sensitive to external exposure to X and gamma rays. However, data on the risk of thyroid cancer in children after exposure to radioactive iodines are sparse. The Chornobyl accident in Ukraine in 1986 led to the exposure of large populations to radioactive iodines, particularly (131)I. This paper describes an ongoing cohort study being conducted in Belarus and Ukraine that includes 25,161 subjects under the age of 18 years in 1986 who are being screened for thyroid diseases every 2 years. Individual thyroid doses are being estimated for all study subjects based on measurement of the radioactivity of the thyroid gland made in 1986 together with a radioecological model and interview data. Approximately 100 histologically confirmed thyroid cancers were detected as a consequence of the first round of screening. The data will enable fitting appropriate dose-response models, which are important in both radiation epidemiology and public health for prediction of risks from exposure to radioactive iodines from medical sources and any future nuclear accidents. Plans are to continue to follow-up the cohort for at least three screening cycles, which will lead to more precise estimates of risk.