Environmental Factors Linked to Reporting of Active Malaria Foci in Thailand.

Thailand has made substantial progress towards malaria elimination, with 46 of the country's 77 provinces declared malaria-free as part of the subnational verification program. Nonetheless, these areas remain vulnerable to the reintroduction of malaria parasites and the reestablishment of indigenous transmission. As such, prevention of reestablishment (POR) planning is of increasing concern to ensure timely response to increasing cases. A thorough understanding of both the risk of parasite importation and receptivity for transmission is essential for successful POR planning. Routine geolocated case- and foci-level epidemiological and case-level demographic data were extracted from Thailand's national malaria information system for all active foci from October 2012 to September 2020. A spatial analysis examined environmental and climate factors associated with the remaining active foci. A logistic regression model collated surveillance data with remote sensing data to investigate associations with the probability of having reported an indigenous case within the previous year. Active foci are highly concentrated along international borders, particularly Thailand's western border with Myanmar. Although there is heterogeneity in the habitats surrounding active foci, land covered by tropical forest and plantation was significantly higher for active foci than other foci. The regression results showed that tropical forest, plantations, forest disturbance, distance from international borders, historical foci classification, percentage of males, and percentage of short-term residents were associated with the high probability of reporting indigenous cases. These results confirm that Thailand's emphasis on border areas and forest-going populations is well placed. The results suggest that environmental factors alone are not driving malaria transmission in Thailand; rather, other factors, including demographics and behaviors that intersect with exophagic vectors, may also be contributors. However, these factors are syndemic, so human activities in areas covered by tropical forests and plantations may result in malaria importation and, potentially, local transmission, in foci that had previously been cleared. These factors should be addressed in POR planning.

Projected Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Philippines.

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century). Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country.

Measuring and modeling the effect of surface moisture on the spectral reflectance of coastal beach sand.

Surface moisture is an important supply limiting factor for aeolian sand transport, which is the primary driver of coastal dune development. As such, it is critical to account for the control of surface moisture on available sand for dune building. Optical remote sensing has the potential to measure surface moisture at a high spatio-temporal resolution. It is based on the principle that wet sand appears darker than dry sand: it is less reflective. The goals of this study are (1) to measure and model reflectance under controlled laboratory conditions as function of wavelength (λ) and surface moisture (θ) over the optical domain of 350-2500 nm, and (2) to explore the implications of our laboratory findings for accurately mapping the distribution of surface moisture under natural conditions. A laboratory spectroscopy experiment was conducted to measure spectral reflectance (1 nm interval) under different surface moisture conditions using beach sand. A non-linear increase of reflectance upon drying was observed over the full range of wavelengths. Two models were developed and tested. The first model is grounded in optics and describes the proportional contribution of scattering and absorption of light by pore water in an unsaturated sand matrix. The second model is grounded in soil physics and links the hydraulic behaviour of pore water in an unsaturated sand matrix to its optical properties. The optical model performed well for volumetric moisture content θ < 24% (R2 > 0.97), but underestimated reflectance for θ between 24-30% (R2 > 0.92), most notable around the 1940 nm water absorption peak. The soil-physical model performed very well (R2 > 0.99) but is limited to 4% > θ < 24%. Results from a field experiment show that a short-wave infrared terrestrial laser scanner (λ = 1550 nm) can accurately relate surface moisture to reflectance (standard error 2.6%), demonstrating its potential to derive spatially extensive surface moisture maps of a natural coastal beach.

Measurement uncertainties in quantifying aeolian mass flux: evidence from wind tunnel and field site data.

Aeolian sediment traps are widely used to estimate the total volume of wind-driven sediment transport, but also to study the vertical mass distribution of a saltating sand cloud. The reliability of sediment flux estimations from such measurements are dependent upon the specific configuration of the measurement compartments and the analysis approach used. In this study, we analyse the uncertainty of these measurements by investigating the vertical cumulative distribution and relative sediment flux derived from both wind tunnel and field studies. Vertical flux data was examined using existing data in combination with a newly acquired dataset; comprising meteorological data and sediment fluxes from six different events, using three customized catchers at Ameland beaches in northern Netherlands. Fast-temporal data collected in a wind tunnel shows that the median transport height has a scattered pattern between impact and fluid threshold, that increases linearly with shear velocities above the fluid threshold. For finer sediment, a larger proportion was transported closer to the surface compared to coarser sediment fractions. It was also shown that errors originating from the distribution of sampling compartments, specifically the location of the lowest sediment trap relative to the surface, can be identified using the relative sediment flux. In the field, surface conditions such as surface moisture, surface crusts or frozen surfaces have a more pronounced but localized effect than shear velocity. Uncertainty in aeolian mass flux estimates can be reduced by placing multiple compartments in closer proximity to the surface.

Spatio-temporal variability in accretion and erosion of coastal foredunes in the Netherlands: regional climate and local topography.

Depending on the amount of aeolian sediment input and dune erosion, dune size and morphology change over time. Since coastal foredunes play an important role in the Dutch coastal defence, it is important to have good insight in the main factors that control these changes. In this paper the temporal variations in foredune erosion and accretion were studied in relation to proxies for aeolian transport potential and storminess using yearly elevation measurements from 1965 to 2012 for six sections of the Dutch coast. Longshore differences in the relative impacts of erosion and accretion were examined in relation to local beach width. The results show that temporal variability in foredune accretion and erosion is highest in narrow beach sections. Here, dune erosion alternates with accretion, with variability displaying strong correlations with yearly values of storminess (maximum sea levels). In wider beach sections, dune erosion is less frequent, with lower temporal variability and stronger correlations with time series of transport potential. In erosion dominated years, eroded volumes decrease from narrow to wider beaches. When accretion dominates, dune-volume changes are relatively constant alongshore. Dune erosion is therefore suggested to control spatial variability in dune-volume changes. On a scale of decades, the volume of foredunes tends to increase more on wider beaches. However, where widths exceed 200 to 300 m, this trend is no longer observed.

Measuring fast-temporal sediment fluxes with an analogue acoustic sensor: a wind tunnel study.

In aeolian research, field measurements are important for studying complex wind-driven processes for land management evaluation and model validation. Consequently, there have been many devices developed, tested, and applied to investigate a range of aeolian-based phenomena. However, determining the most effective application and data analysis techniques is widely debated in the literature. Here we investigate the effectiveness of two different sediment traps (the BEST trap and the MWAC catcher) in measuring vertical sediment flux. The study was performed in a wind tunnel with sediment fluxes characterized using saltiphones. Contrary to most studies, we used the analogue output of five saltiphones mounted on top of each other to determine the total kinetic energy, which was then used to calculate aeolian sediment budgets. Absolute sediment losses during the experiments were determined using a balance located beneath the test tray. Test runs were conducted with different sand sizes and at different wind speeds. The efficiency of the two traps did not vary with the wind speed or sediment size but was affected by both the experimental setup (position of the lowest trap above the surface and number of traps in the saltation layer) and the technique used to calculate the sediment flux. Despite this, good agreement was found between sediment losses calculated from the saltiphone and those measured using the balance. The results of this study provide a framework for measuring sediment fluxes at small time resolution (seconds to milliseconds) in the field.