Serum estradiol and risk of stroke in elderly men.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if levels of serum estradiol and testosterone can predict stroke in a population-based sample of elderly men. METHODS: Serum 17beta estradiol and testosterone were measured in 2,197 men aged 71 to 93 years who participated in the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study from 1991 to 1993. All were free of prevalent stroke, coronary heart disease, and cancer. Participants were followed to the end of 1998 for thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events. RESULTS: During the course of follow-up, 124 men developed a stroke (9.1/1,000 person-years). After age adjustment, men in the top quintile of serum estradiol (> or =125 pmol/L [34.1 pg/mL]) experienced a twofold excess risk of stroke vs men whose estradiol levels were lower (14.8 vs 7.3/1,000 person-years, p < 0.001). Among the lower quintiles, there were little differences in the risk of stroke. Findings were also significant and comparable for bioavailable estradiol and for thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events. After additional adjustment for hypertension, diabetes, adiposity, cholesterol concentrations, atrial fibrillation, and other characteristics, men in the top quintile of serum estradiol continued to have a higher risk of stroke vs those whose estradiol levels were lower (relative hazards = 2.2; 95% CI = 1.5 to 3.4, p < 0.001). Testosterone was not related to the risk of stroke. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of serum estradiol may be associated with an elevated risk of stroke in elderly men.

Midlife adiposity and the future risk of Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that nigrostriatal system disorders are associated with PD and adiposity. Whether patterns of adiposity coexist or predate clinical PD is unknown. This report examines the relation between midlife adiposity and the risk of PD. METHODS: Measurement of adiposity occurred from 1965 to 1968 in 7,990 men in the Honolulu Heart Program (aged 45 to 68 years and without PD). Adiposity measures included body mass index (BMI), subscapular skinfold thickness (SSF), and triceps skinfold thickness (TSF). Follow-up for incident PD occurred over a 30-year period. RESULTS: During the course of follow-up, PD was observed in 137 men. Among the measures of adiposity, age-adjusted incidence of PD increased threefold from 3.7/10,000 person-years in the bottom quartile of TSF (1 to 5 mm) to 11.1/10,000 person-years in the top quartile (11 to 32 mm, p < 0.001). Effects of TSF on PD were independent of cigarette smoking, coffee consumption, physical activity, daily caloric and fat intake, and the other measures of adiposity (p < 0.001). Whereas rates of PD were lowest in the bottom quartile of BMI and SSF vs higher quartiles, associations with PD were weaker than they were for TSF. The effect of TSF on clinical onset before age 65 years was similar to the effect that was observed in later life. CONCLUSIONS: Increased triceps skinfold thickness measured in midlife is associated with an elevated risk of future PD. Whether patterns of adiposity reflect a unique metabolic pathology in individuals at a high risk of PD warrants further study.

Ankle-brachial blood pressure in elderly men and the risk of stroke: the Honolulu Heart Program.

Although low ankle/brachial blood pressure index (ABI) is a marker of generalized atherosclerosis in the elderly, it has not been identified as a risk factor for stroke. The purpose of this report is to examine the relation between ABI and stroke in elderly men. ABI was measured from 1991 to 1993 in 2767 men aged 71 to 93 years in the Honolulu Heart Program without a history of stroke and coronary heart disease. Subjects were followed for 3 to 6 years for fatal and nonfatal thromboembolic and hemorrhagic stroke. During follow-up, there were 91 strokes. There was an age-adjusted 2-fold excess in men with an ABI < 0.9 (6.0%) versus men with an ABI > or = 0.9 (2.9%, P < 0.01). Thromboembolic events occurred in 4.6% of men with an ABI < 0.9 and in 2.0% in those with an ABI > or = 0.9 (P < 0.01). Hemorrhagic stroke was also more frequent in men with a low ABI (< 0.9) versus a higher ABI (1.9 vs. 0.8%, respectively). After adjusting for other factors, the risk of total and thromboembolic strokes increased with declining ABI (P = 0.019 and P = 0.004, respectively). The relation between ABI and stroke was similar and statistically significant in the presence and absence of diabetes and hypertension (P < 0.05). Findings suggest that ABI is inversely related to the incidence of stroke. Simple measurement of ABI in an outpatient setting could be an important tool for assessing the risk of stroke in the elderly.

Frequency of bowel movements and the future risk of Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: Constipation is frequent in PD, although its onset in relation to clinical PD has not been well described. Demonstration that constipation can precede clinical PD could provide important clues to understanding disease progression and etiology. The purpose of this report is to examine the association between the frequency of bowel movements and the future risk of PD. METHODS: Information on the frequency of bowel movements was collected from 1971 to 1974 in 6790 men aged 51 to 75 years without PD in the Honolulu Heart Program. Follow-up for incident PD occurred over a 24-year period. RESULTS: Ninety-six men developed PD an average of 12 years into follow-up. Age-adjusted incidence declined consistently from 18.9/10,000 person-years in men with <1 bowel movement/day to 3.8/10,000 person-years in those with >2/day (p = 0.005). After adjustment for age, pack-years of cigarette smoking, coffee consumption, laxative use, jogging, and the intake of fruits, vegetables, and grains, men with <1 bowel movement/day had a 2.7-fold excess risk of PD versus men with 1/day (95% CI: 1.3, 5.5; p = 0.007). The risk of PD in men with <1 bowel movement/day increased to a 4.1-fold excess when compared with men with 2/day (95% CI: 1.7, 9.6; p = 0.001) and to a 4.5-fold excess versus men with >2/day (95% CI: 1.2, 16.9; p = 0.025). CONCLUSIONS: Findings indicate that infrequent bowel movements are associated with an elevated risk of future PD. Further study is needed to determine whether constipation is part of early PD processes or is a marker of susceptibility or environmental factors that may cause PD.

Ankle/brachial blood pressure in men >70 years of age and the risk of coronary heart disease.

Low ankle/brachial blood pressure index (ABI) is a marker of generalized atherosclerosis in the elderly, although its association with coronary heart disease (CHD) has not been well established. The purpose of this report is to examine the relation between ABI and the risk of CHD in a sample of elderly men. Findings are based on the ABI that was measured in 2,863 Japanese-American men aged 71 to 93 years at an examination that occurred from 1991 to 1993 in the Honolulu Heart Program. All men were free of total CHD at that time and followed for nonfatal myocardial infarction and death from CHD over a 3- to 6-year period. During follow-up, 186 had a coronary event. Age-adjusted incidence declined significantly from 15.3% in men with an ABI <0.8 to 5.4% in men with an ABI >/=1.0 (p <0.001). The effect of ABI on disease was similar across a variety of risk factor strata, although it seemed strongest in the presence of hypertension and in past and current cigarette smokers. Adjustment for other risk factors failed to diminish the relation between ABI and CHD. We conclude that a low ABI increases the risk of CHD in elderly men. If findings can be extended to other elderly population segments, simple measurement of ABI in an outpatient setting could be an important tool for assessing the risk of CHD in the elderly.

Association of coffee and caffeine intake with the risk of Parkinson disease.

CONTEXT: The projected expansion in the next several decades of the elderly population at highest risk for Parkinson disease (PD) makes identification of factors that promote or prevent the disease an important goal. OBJECTIVE: To explore the association of coffee and dietary caffeine intake with risk of PD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were analyzed from 30 years of follow-up of 8004 Japanese-American men (aged 45-68 years) enrolled in the prospective longitudinal Honolulu Heart Program between 1965 and 1968. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incident PD, by amount of coffee intake (measured at study enrollment and 6-year follow-up) and by total dietary caffeine intake (measured at enrollment). RESULTS: During follow-up, 102 men were identified as having PD. Age-adjusted incidence of PD declined consistently with increased amounts of coffee intake, from 10.4 per 10,000 person-years in men who drank no coffee to 1.9 per 10,000 person-years in men who drank at least 28 oz/d (P<.001 for trend). Similar relationships were observed with total caffeine intake (P<.001 for trend) and caffeine from non-coffee sources (P=.03 for trend). Consumption of increasing amounts of coffee was also associated with lower risk of PD in men who were never, past, and current smokers at baseline (P=.049, P=.22, and P=.02, respectively, for trend). Other nutrients in coffee, including niacin, were unrelated to PD incidence. The relationship between caffeine and PD was unaltered by intake of milk and sugar. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that higher coffee and caffeine intake is associated with a significantly lower incidence of PD. This effect appears to be independent of smoking. The data suggest that the mechanism is related to caffeine intake and not to other nutrients contained in coffee. JAMA. 2000;283:2674-2679.

Epidemiologic observations on Parkinson's disease: incidence and mortality in a prospective study of middle-aged men.

We determined age-specific and age-adjusted incidence rates and mortality rates of idiopathic Parkinson's disease (PD) in a cohort of men followed for 29 years. Since enrollment in 1965, the Honolulu Heart Study has followed 8,006 American men of Japanese or Okinawan ancestry. Rescreening of the entire cohort, completed in 1994, included attempts to detect all prevalent and incident cases of PD, parkinsonism, and related conditions. PD incidence rates and age-incidence patterns were similar to rates previously published for Caucasian men in Europe and the United States, and were higher than incidence rates published for Asian men living in Asian nations. Prevalence patterns appeared to correspond more closely to patterns observed in developed nations than in Asian nations. PD was associated with markedly increased mortality that appeared to result from effects of both absolute age and disease duration. There was no firm evidence for differences in birth cohort risks of PD. These data may have implications for maturational and environmental theories of PD etiology.

Trends in stroke incidence and mortality in Hawaiian Japanese men.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Vital statistics show a sharp decline in stroke mortality since the late 1960s. It is not clear whether this has been associated with a decline in stroke incidence. METHODS: Since 1966 the Honolulu Heart Program has monitored the incidence and mortality of coronary heart disease and stroke in a target population of 11,136 men of Japanese ancestry living on Oahu. Trends were analyzed from January 1, 1969, through December 31, 1988. RESULTS: Of 7893 men aged 45 to 68 years and free of stroke at entry examination, 530 developed first episodes of stroke in the period 1969 to 1988 (389 cases of thromboembolic stroke, 124 cases of hemorrhagic stroke, and 17 cases of stroke of unknown type). Age-adjusted annual stroke incidence declined from 5.1 per 1000 person-years in 1969 to 1972 to 2.4 in 1985 to 1988. The incidences of thromboembolic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and total stroke decreased 3.5%, 4.2%, and 4.4% per year, respectively. The 1-month case-fatality rates for thromboembolic stroke decreased moderately; those for hemorrhagic stroke fell dramatically. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the decline in stroke mortality in the past two or three decades results from a decline in both incidence rates and early case-fatality rates in thromboembolic and hemorrhagic stroke and stroke of unknown type. The decreases may be related to changes in risk factors, such as the decline in blood pressure and the decrease in cigarette smoking, as well as improvements in diagnosis and treatment.

Epidemiology of stroke among Japanese men in Hawaii during 24 years of follow-up: the Honolulu Heart Program.

This report present epidemiologic data on stroke incidence and mortality as well as on risk factors for total stroke and subtypes of stroke among Japanese men in Hawaii, who were known to have much lower stroke morbidity and mortality than indigenous Japanese men. Of 7,893 men aged 45 to 68 and free of stroke at baseline examination (1965-68), 587 developed first episodes of stroke during 24 years of follow-up through 1989. Comparing the distribution of stroke subtypes before and after the advent of CT scanning in 1976, there was an increase in thromboembolic stroke (67% to 74%), a decrease in subarachnoid hemorrhage (9% to 6%) and unknown type (7% to 2%), and little change in intracerebral hemorrhage (18% to 19%). Total stroke incidence declined from 5.1 to 2.4 per 1,000 person years between 1969 and 1988, with a mean annual rate of decline of 5%. Total stroke mortality in the target population (examined and nonexamined men combined) also declined markedly, at a rate similar to that reported for U.S. white men of comparable ages. The one-month case fatality ratio fell dramatically in hemorrhagic stroke (75% to 29%) and only slightly (13% to 11%) in thromboembolic stroke during the same period. Relationships between a variety of biological, sociocultural and lifestyle factors and the risk of stroke subtypes were evaluated by means of bivariate and multivariate Cox regression models. Hypertension was the strongest and most consistent risk factor for all subtypes of stroke. Other risk factors showed inconsistent patterns of association with stroke subtypes in multivariate analysis.

Dietary and other risk factors for stroke in Hawaiian Japanese men.

As part of an on-going longitudinal study, 7895 men of Japanese ancestry living on the island of Oahu, aged 45-68 and free of evidence of prior stroke at entry examination, have been followed by re-examinations and surveillance. During ten years of follow-up 154 men developed thromboembolic stroke, 65 developed intracranial hemorrhage, and 19 developed stroke of unknown type. There were 79 deaths attributed to stroke. The independent risk factors for thrombo-embolic stroke were elevated blood pressure, glucose intolerance, age, electrocardiographic evidence of left ventricular hypertrophy or strain, cigarette smoking and proteinuria. Attributes associated with increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage were age, elevated blood pressure, cigarette smoking, serum uric acid and, inversely, serum cholesterol level. Electrocardiographic evidence of left ventricular hypertrophy or strain significantly increased the risk of cerebral hemorrhage, but was not associated with subarachnoid hemorrhage. In univariate analysis, there was an inverse relation between dietary fat intake and thrombo-embolic and total stroke incidence. An inverse relation was also shown between protein intake and total stroke incidence. These dietary relations became statistically not significant in multivariate analysis. No relation was found between salt intake and the incidence of stroke.

Epidemiologic studies of coronary heart disease and stroke in Japanese men living in Japan, Hawaii and California: incidence of stroke in Japan and Hawaii.

As part of the Ni-Hon-San Study, stroke incidence was compared in the Japan and Hawaii cohorts. Stroke cases were classified in two types, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) and thrombo-embolic stroke (T-E). For each type the incidence in Japan was about three times as great as in Hawaii. The ratio ICH/T-E was 1/2.2 and 1/1.6 in Japan and Hawaii, respectively. Blood pressure was the most important risk factor, followed by age for total stroke in both Japan and Hawaii. Proteinuria was also a risk factor in Hawaii. Conversely, an index of animal food intake was inversely related to total stroke, significantly in Hawaii, and at a suggestive level for total and hemorrhagic stroke in Japan. Since the levels of blood pressure do not differ between Japan and Hawaii, one possible explanation for the large difference in stroke incidence between the two cohorts may be the fact that animal protein and saturated fat intake, which is inversely associated with stroke incidence, is much greater in Hawaii than in Japan. This explanation would support epidemiologic and experimental studies in Japan which suggest that dietary animal protein and fat exert an inhibitory effect on the incidence of stroke.

Factors related to stroke incidence in Hawaii Japanese men. The Honolulu Heart Study.

As part of an ongoing longitudinal study of coronary heart disease and stroke among Japanese men in Hawaii, 8,006 men of Japanese ancestry living on the island of Oahu and aged 45-68 at entry examination have been followed by reexamination and surveillance. One hundred and eleven were found to have evidence of prior stroke at the time of the initial examination. During a six-year follow up period of the remaining 7,895 men, 94 developed definite thromboembolic stroke, 33 definite intracranial hemorrhage, and 6 developed stroke of unknown type. The principal risk factors for thromboembolic stroke were: elevated blood pressure, glucose intolerance, age, and electrocardiography evidence of left ventricular hypertrophy or strain. Attributes associated with increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage were elevated blood pressure, electrocardiographic evidence of left ventricular hypertrophy or strain, and alcohol intake. Serum cholesterol level was negatively associated with risk of intracranial hemorrhage.

Incidence of transient cerebral ischemic attack in Hawaii Japanese men. The Honolulu Heart Study.

At the Honolulu Heart Study 7,895 men of Japanese ancestry, 45--68 year-old, who were free of previous stroke at the baseline examination (1965--1968) were followed 6 years for the development of transient cerebral ischemic attacks (TIA). Fifty-one men developed probable or possible episodes. In multivariate analysis TIA was associated with preceding hypertension, cigarette smoking and coronary heart disease. It was less common in men who were facile with written Japanese language, in those who consumed alcohol, and in those who were physically active. During an average follow up of 3 years after these TIA events 2 strokes occurred, vs 0.7 expected. This prognosis is more favorable than that reported by other studies.