Impact of vegetation composition and seasonality on sensitivity of modelled CO2 exchange in temperate raised bogs.

Encroachment of vascular plants (VP) in temperate raised bogs, as a consequence of altered hydrological conditions and nutrient input, is widely observed. Effects of such vegetation shift on water and carbon cycles are, however, largely unknown and identification of responsible plant physiological traits is challenging. Process-based modelling offers the opportunity of gaining insights into ecosystem functioning beyond observations, and to infer decisive trait shifts of plant functional groups. We adapted the Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer model pyAPES to a temperate raised bog site by calibration against measured peat temperature, water table and surface CO2 fluxes. We identified the most important traits determining CO2 fluxes by conducting Morris sensitivity analysis (MSA) under changing conditions throughout the year and simulated VP encroachment. We further investigated transferability of results to other sites by extending MSA to parameter ranges derived from literature review. We found highly variable intra-annual plant traits importance determining ecosystem CO2 fluxes, but only a partial shift of importance of photosynthetic processes from moss to VP during encroachment. Ecosystem respiration was dominated by peat respiration. Overall, carboxylation rate, base respiration rate and temperature sensitivity (Q10) were most important for determining bog CO2 balance and parameter ranking was robust even under the extended MSA.

Shower thoughts: why scientists should spend more time in the rain.

Stormwater is a vital resource and dynamic driver of terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, processes controlling interactions during and shortly after storms are often poorly seen and poorly sensed when direct observations are substituted with technological ones. We discuss how human observations complement technological ones and the benefits of scientists spending more time in the storm. Human observation can reveal ephemeral storm-related phenomena such as biogeochemical hot moments, organismal responses, and sedimentary processes that can then be explored in greater resolution using sensors and virtual experiments. Storm-related phenomena trigger lasting, oversized impacts on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes, organismal traits or functions, and ecosystem services at all scales. We provide examples of phenomena in forests, across disciplines and scales, that have been overlooked in past research to inspire mindful, holistic observation of ecosystems during storms. We conclude that technological observations alone are insufficient to trace the process complexity and unpredictability of fleeting biogeochemical or ecological events without the shower thoughts produced by scientists' human sensory and cognitive systems during storms.

A research agenda for nonvascular photoautotrophs under climate change.

Nonvascular photoautotrophs (NVP), including bryophytes, lichens, terrestrial algae, and cyanobacteria, are increasingly recognized as being essential to ecosystem functioning in many regions of the world. Current research suggests that climate change may pose a substantial threat to NVP, but the extent to which this will affect the associated ecosystem functions and services is highly uncertain. Here, we propose a research agenda to address this urgent question, focusing on physiological and ecological processes that link NVP to ecosystem functions while also taking into account the substantial taxonomic diversity across multiple ecosystem types. Accordingly, we developed a new categorization scheme, based on microclimatic gradients, which simplifies the high physiological and morphological diversity of NVP and world-wide distribution with respect to several broad habitat types. We found that habitat-specific ecosystem functions of NVP will likely be substantially affected by climate change, and more quantitative process understanding is required on: (1) potential for acclimation; (2) response to elevated CO2 ; (3) role of the microbiome; and (4) feedback to (micro)climate. We suggest an integrative approach of innovative, multimethod laboratory and field experiments and ecophysiological modelling, for which sustained scientific collaboration on NVP research will be essential.

Climate windows of opportunity for plant expansion during the Phanerozoic.

Earth's long-term climate may have profoundly influenced plant evolution. Local climatic factors, including water availability, light, and temperature, play a key role in plant physiology and growth, and have fluctuated substantially over geological time. However, the impact of these key climate variables on global plant biomass across the Phanerozoic has not yet been established. Linking climate and dynamic vegetation modelling, we identify two key 'windows of opportunity' during the Ordovician and Jurassic-Paleogene capable of supporting dramatic expansions of potential plant biomass. These conditions are driven by continental dispersion, paleolatitude of continental area and a lack of glaciation, allowing for an intense hydrological cycle and greater water availability. These windows coincide with the initial expansion of land plants and the later angiosperm radiation. Our findings suggest that the timing and expansion of habitable space for plants played an important role in plant evolution and diversification.

Biota-mediated carbon cycling-A synthesis of biotic-interaction controls on blue carbon.

Research into biotic interactions has been a core theme of ecology for over a century. However, despite the obvious role that biota play in the global carbon cycle, the effects of biotic interactions on carbon pools and fluxes are poorly understood. Here we develop a conceptual framework that illustrates the importance of biotic interactions in regulating carbon cycling based on a literature review and a quantitative synthesis by means of meta-analysis. Our study focuses on blue carbon ecosystems-vegetated coastal ecosystems that function as the most effective long-term CO2 sinks of the biosphere. We demonstrate that a multitude of mutualistic, competitive and consumer-resource interactions between plants, animals and microbiota exert strong effects on carbon cycling across various spatial scales ranging from the rhizosphere to the landscape scale. Climate change-sensitive abiotic factors modulate the strength of biotic-interaction effects on carbon fluxes, suggesting that the importance of biota-mediated carbon cycling will change under future climatic conditions. Strong effects of biotic interactions on carbon cycling imply that biosphere-climate feedbacks may not be sufficiently represented in current Earth system models. Inclusion of new functional groups in these models, and new approaches to simplify species interactions, may thus improve the predictions of biotic effects on the global climate.

Protection of Permafrost Soils from Thawing by Increasing Herbivore Density.

Climate change will cause a substantial future greenhouse gas release from warming and thawing permafrost-affected soils to the atmosphere enabling a positive feedback mechanism. Increasing the population density of big herbivores in northern high-latitude ecosystems will increase snow density and hence decrease the insulation strength of snow during winter. As a consequence, theoretically 80% of current permafrost-affected soils (<10 m) is projected to remain until 2100 even when assuming a strong warming using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Importantly, permafrost temperature is estimated to remain below -4 °C on average after increasing herbivore population density. Such ecosystem management practices would be therefore theoretically an important additional climate change mitigation strategy. Our results also highlight the importance of new field experiments and observations, and the integration of fauna dynamics into complex Earth System models, in order to reliably project future ecosystem functions and climate.

Earliest land plants created modern levels of atmospheric oxygen.

The progressive oxygenation of the Earth's atmosphere was pivotal to the evolution of life, but the puzzle of when and how atmospheric oxygen (O2) first approached modern levels (∼21%) remains unresolved. Redox proxy data indicate the deep oceans were oxygenated during 435-392 Ma, and the appearance of fossil charcoal indicates O2 >15-17% by 420-400 Ma. However, existing models have failed to predict oxygenation at this time. Here we show that the earliest plants, which colonized the land surface from ∼470 Ma onward, were responsible for this mid-Paleozoic oxygenation event, through greatly increasing global organic carbon burial-the net long-term source of O2 We use a trait-based ecophysiological model to predict that cryptogamic vegetation cover could have achieved ∼30% of today's global terrestrial net primary productivity by ∼445 Ma. Data from modern bryophytes suggests this plentiful early plant material had a much higher molar C:P ratio (∼2,000) than marine biomass (∼100), such that a given weathering flux of phosphorus could support more organic carbon burial. Furthermore, recent experiments suggest that early plants selectively increased the flux of phosphorus (relative to alkalinity) weathered from rocks. Combining these effects in a model of long-term biogeochemical cycling, we reproduce a sustained +2‰ increase in the carbonate carbon isotope (δ(13)C) record by ∼445 Ma, and predict a corresponding rise in O2 to present levels by 420-400 Ma, consistent with geochemical data. This oxygen rise represents a permanent shift in regulatory regime to one where fire-mediated negative feedbacks stabilize high O2 levels.