Country-level pandemic risk and preparedness classification based on COVID-19 data: A machine learning approach.

In this work we present a three-stage Machine Learning strategy to country-level risk classification based on countries that are reporting COVID-19 information. A K% binning discretisation (K = 25) is used to create four risk groups of countries based on the risk of transmission (coronavirus cases per million population), risk of mortality (coronavirus deaths per million population), and risk of inability to test (coronavirus tests per million population). The four risk groups produced by K% binning are labelled as 'low', 'medium-low', 'medium-high', and 'high'. Coronavirus-related data are then removed and the attributes for prediction of the three types of risk are given as the geopolitical and demographic data describing each country. Thus, the calculation of class label is based on coronavirus data but the input attributes are country-level information regardless of coronavirus data. The three four-class classification problems are then explored and benchmarked through leave-one-country-out cross validation to find the strongest model, producing a Stack of Gradient Boosting and Decision Tree algorithms for risk of transmission, a Stack of Support Vector Machine and Extra Trees for risk of mortality, and a Gradient Boosting algorithm for the risk of inability to test. It is noted that high risk for inability to test is often coupled with low risks for transmission and mortality, therefore the risk of inability to test should be interpreted first, before consideration is given to the predicted transmission and mortality risks. Finally, the approach is applied to more recent risk levels to data from September 2020 and weaker results are noted due to the growth of international collaboration detracting useful knowledge from country-level attributes which suggests that similar machine learning approaches are more useful prior to situations later unfolding.

Improving the generalization capacity of cascade classifiers.

The cascade classifier is a usual approach in object detection based on vision, since it successively rejects negative occurrences, e.g., background images, in a cascade structure, keeping the processing time suitable for on-the-fly applications. On the other hand, similar to other classifier ensembles, cascade classifiers are likely to have high Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension, which may lead to overfitting the training data. Therefore, this work aims at improving the generalization capacity of the cascade classifier by controlling its complexity, which depends on the model of their classifier stages, the number of stages, and the feature space dimension of each stage, which can be controlled by integrating the parameter setting of the feature extractor (in our case an image descriptor) into the maximum-margin framework of support vector machine training, as will be shown in this paper. Moreover, to set the number of cascade stages, bounds on the false positive rate (FP) and on the true positive rate (TP) of cascade classifiers are derived based on a VC-style analysis. These bounds are applied to compose an enveloping receiver operating curve (EROC), i.e., a new curve in the TP­FP space in which each point is an ordered pair of upper bound on the FP and lower bound on the TP. The optimal number of cascade stages is forecasted by comparing EROCs of cascades with different numbers of stages.