COVID-19 and long-term impact on symptoms and Health-Related Quality of Life in Costa Rica: the RESPIRA cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence continues to accumulate regarding the potential long-term health consequences of COVID-19 in the population. To distinguish between COVID-19-related symptoms and health limitations from those caused by other conditions, it is essential to compare cases with community controls using prospective data ensuring case-control status. The RESPIRA study addresses this need by investigating the lasting impact of COVID-19 on Health-related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and symptomatology in a population-based cohort in Costa Rica, thereby providing a robust framework for controlling HRQoL and symptoms. METHODS: The study comprised 641 PCR-confirmed, unvaccinated cases of COVID-19 and 947 matched population-based controls. Infection was confirmed using antibody tests on enrollment serum samples and symptoms were monitored monthly for 6 months post-enrolment. Administered at the 6-month visit (occurring between 6- and 2-months post-diagnosis for cases and 6 months after enrollment for controls), HRQoL and Self-Perceived Health Change were assessed using the SF-36, while brain fog, using three items from the Mental Health Inventory (MHI). Regression models were utilized to analyze SF-36, MHI scores, and Self-Perceived Health Change, adjusted for case/control status, severity (mild case, moderate case, hospitalized) and additional independent variables. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the findings. RESULTS: Cases showed significantly higher prevalences of joint pain, chest tightness, and skin manifestations, that stabilized at higher frequencies from the fourth month post-diagnosis onwards (2.0%, 1.2%, and 0.8% respectively) compared to controls (0.9%, 0.4%, 0.2% respectively). Cases also exhibited significantly lower HRQoL than controls across all dimensions in the fully adjusted model, with a 12.4 percentage-point difference [95%CI: 9.4-14.6], in self-reported health compared to one year prior. Cases reported 8.0% [95%CI: 4.2, 11.5] more physical limitations, 7.3% [95%CI: 3.5, 10.5] increased lack of vitality, and 6.0% [95%CI: 2.4, 9.0] more brain fog compared to controls with similar characteristics. Undiagnosed cases detected with antibody tests among controls had HRQoL comparable to antibody negative controls. Differences were more pronounced in individuals with moderate or severe disease and among women. CONCLUSIONS: PCR-confirmed unvaccinated cases experienced prolonged HRQoL reductions 6 months to 2 years after diagnosis, this was particularly the case in severe cases and among women. Mildly symptomatic cases showed no significant long-term sequelae.

Bronchiectasis-associated infections and outcomes in a large, geographically diverse electronic health record cohort in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Bronchiectasis is a pulmonary disease characterized by irreversible dilation of the bronchi and recurring respiratory infections. Few studies have described the microbiology and prevalence of infections in large patient populations outside of specialized tertiary care centers. METHODS: We used the Cerner HealthFacts Electronic Health Record database to characterize the nature, burden, and frequency of pulmonary infections among persons with bronchiectasis. Chronic infections were defined based on organism-specific guidelines. RESULTS: We identified 7,749 patients who met our incident bronchiectasis case definition. In this study population, the organisms with the highest rates of isolate prevalence were Pseudomonas aeruginosa with 937 (12%) individuals, Staphylococcus aureus with 502 (6%), Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) with 336 (4%), and Aspergillus sp. with 288 (4%). Among persons with at least one isolate of each respective pathogen, 219 (23%) met criteria for chronic P. aeruginosa colonization, 74 (15%) met criteria for S. aureus chronic colonization, 101 (30%) met criteria for MAC chronic infection, and 50 (17%) met criteria for Aspergillus sp. chronic infection. Of 5,795 persons with at least two years of observation, 1,860 (32%) had a bronchiectasis exacerbation and 3,462 (60%) were hospitalized within two years of bronchiectasis diagnoses. Among patients with chronic respiratory infections, the two-year occurrence of exacerbations was 53% and for hospitalizations was 82%. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with bronchiectasis experiencing chronic respiratory infections have high rates of hospitalization.

Nontuberculous mycobacteria testing and culture positivity in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are environmental bacteria which may cause chronic lung disease. The prevalence of NTM pulmonary infection and disease has been increasing in the United States and globally. The predominant clinically relevant species of NTM in the United States are Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) species and Mycobacterium abscessus. With the development of rapid species identification methods for NTM (e.g. PCR probes), more testing for NTM is being conducted through commercial labs, such as Laboratory Corporation of America (Labcorp), which provides deidentified real-time testing data to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) pursuant to a data sharing agreement. Because NTM lung infections are not reportable in most states, other data sources are key to understanding NTM testing patterns, positivity rates, and species distributions to track infection trends and identify clinical care needs. METHODS: We obtained national Labcorp data for the period January 2019 through mid-April 2022. We subset the data to only respiratory samples sent for Acid Fast Bacilli (AFB) cultures. NTM positive results were defined as those which identified an NTM species and are not Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Mycobacterium bovis, or Mycobacterium gordonae. RESULTS: Overall, 112,528 respiratory samples were sent for AFB testing during the study period; 26.3% were from the Southeast U.S., identified as HSS Region IV in the Labcorp dataset, and 23.0% were from the Pacific and South Pacific region (Region IX). The culture positive prevalence ranged from 20.2% in the Southeast to 9.2% in the East North Central region (Region V). In the Southeast US, M. abscessus prevalence was 4.0%. For MAC, the highest prevalence was observed in the Mountain region (Region VII) (13.5%) and the lowest proportion was in the East South Central region (7.3%, Region III). Among positive tests, the proportion which was MAC varied from 61.8% to 88.9% and was highest in the Northeast U.S. The proportion of positive samples which were M. abscessus ranged from 3.8% to 19.7% and was highest in the Southeast. CONCLUSIONS: The Southeastern region of the U.S. has the highest rate of culture positivity in Labcorp tests for total NTM and, of all positive tests, the highest proportion of M. abscessus. These estimates may underrepresent the true number of M. abscessus infections because M. absesscus-specific probes are not commercially available and not all NTM testing in the United States is done by Labcorp. Analysis of real-time testing data from commercial laboratories may provide insights into risk factors for NTM culture positivity in 'hotspot' areas.

Cohort profile: evaluation of immune response and household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Costa Rica: the RESPIRA study.

PURPOSE: The RESPIRA cohort aims to describe the nature, magnitude, time course and efficacy of the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, population prevalence, and household transmission of COVID-19. PARTICIPANTS: From November 2020, we selected age-stratified random samples of COVID-19 cases from Costa Rica confirmed by PCR. For each case, two population-based controls, matched on age, sex and census tract were recruited, supplemented with hospitalised cases and household contacts. Participants were interviewed and blood and saliva collected for antibodies and PCR tests. Participants will be followed for 2 years to assess antibody response and infection incidence. FINDINGS TO DATE: Recruitment included 3860 individuals: 1150 COVID-19 cases, 1999 population controls and 719 household contacts from 304 index cases. The age and regional distribution of cases was as planned, including four age strata, 30% rural and 70% urban. The control cohort had similar sex, age and regional distribution as the cases according to the study design. Among the 1999 controls recruited, 6.8% reported at enrolment having had COVID-19 and an additional 12.5% had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Compliance with visits and specimens has been close to 70% during the first 18 months of follow-up. During the study, national vaccination was implemented and nearly 90% of our cohort participants were vaccinated during follow-up. FUTURE PLANS: RESPIRA will enable multiple analyses, including population prevalence of infection, clinical, behavioural, immunological and genetic risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 acquisition and severity, and determinants of household transmission. We are conducting retrospective and prospective assessment of antibody levels, their determinants and their protective efficacy after infection and vaccination, the impact of long-COVID and a series of ancillary studies. Follow-up continues with bimonthly saliva collection for PCR testing and biannual blood collection for immune response analyses. Follow-up will be completed in early 2024. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04537338.

Estimating the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Costa Rica: modelling seroprevalence data in a population-based cohort.

Background: The true incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Costa Rica was likely much higher than officially reported, because infection is often associated with mild symptoms and testing was limited by official guidelines and socio-economic factors. Methods: Using serology to define natural infection, we developed a statistical model to estimate the true cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Costa Rica early in the pandemic. We estimated seroprevalence from 2223 blood samples collected from November 2020 to October 2021 from 1976 population-based controls from the RESPIRA study. Samples were tested for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid and the receptor-binding-domain of the spike proteins. Using a generalized linear model, we estimated the ratio of true infections to officially reported cases. Applying these ratios to officially reported totals by age, sex, and geographic area, we estimated the true number of infections in the study area, where 70% of Costa Ricans reside. We adjusted the seroprevalence estimates for antibody decay over time, estimated from 1562 blood samples from 996 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 cases. Findings: The estimated total proportion infected (ETPI) was 4.0 times higher than the officially reported total proportion infected (OTPI). By December 16th, 2021, the ETPI was 47% [42-52] while the OTPI was 12%. In children and adolescents, the ETPI was 11.0 times higher than the OTPI. Interpretation: Our findings suggest that nearly half the population had been infected by the end of 2021. By the end of 2022, it is likely that a large majority of the population had been infected. Funding: This work was sponsored and funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases through the National Cancer Institute, the Science, Innovation, Technology and Telecommunications Ministry of Costa Rica, and Costa Rican Biomedical Research Agency-Fundacion INCIENSA (grant N/A).

Global Epidemiology of Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Pulmonary Disease: A Review.

Nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) isolation and pulmonary disease (NTM-PD) have continued to increase in most regions of the world, driven mainly by Mycobacterium avium. Single-center studies also support increasing trends as well as a persistent burden of undiagnosed NTM among persons suspected of having tuberculosis (TB), in countries with moderate-to-high TB prevalence. Cumulative exposure to water and soil presents an increased risk to susceptible hosts, and trace metals in water supply are recently recognized risk factors. Establishing standard case definitions for subnational and national surveillance systems with mandatory notification of NTM-PD are needed to allow comparisons within and across countries and regions.

The risk of pulmonary NTM infections and water-quality constituents among persons with cystic fibrosis in the United States, 2010-2019.

Rationale: The prevalence of nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) pulmonary disease varies geographically in the United States. Previous studies indicate that the presence of certain water-quality constituents in source water increases NTM infection risk. Objective: To identify water-quality constituents that influence the risk of NTM pulmonary infection in persons with cystic fibrosis in the United States. Methods: We conducted a population-based case-control study using NTM incidence data collected from the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry during 2010-2019. We linked patient zip code to the county and associated patient county of residence with surface water data extracted from the Water Quality Portal. We used logistic regression models to estimate the odds of NTM infection as a function of water-quality constituents. We modeled two outcomes: pulmonary infection due to Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) and Mycobacterium abscessus species. Results: We identified 484 MAC cases, 222 M. abscessus cases and 2816 NTM-negative cystic fibrosis controls resident in 11 states. In multivariable models, we found that for every 1-standardized unit increase in the log concentration of sulfate and vanadium in surface water at the county level, the odds of infection increased by 39% and 21%, respectively, among persons with cystic fibrosis with MAC compared with cystic fibrosis-NTM-negative controls. When modeling M. abscessus as the dependent variable, every 1-standardized unit increase in the log concentration of molybdenum increased the odds of infection by 36%. Conclusions: These findings suggest that naturally occurring and anthropogenic water-quality constituents may influence the NTM abundance in water sources that supply municipal water systems, thereby increasing MAC and M. abscessus infection risk.

Behavioral factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission heterogeneity within a household cohort in Costa Rica.

INTRODUCTION: Variability in household secondary attack rates and transmission risks factors of SARS-CoV-2 remain poorly understood. METHODS: We conducted a household transmission study of SARS-CoV-2 in Costa Rica, with SARS-CoV-2 index cases selected from a larger prospective cohort study and their household contacts were enrolled. A total of 719 household contacts of 304 household index cases were enrolled from November 21, 2020, through July 31, 2021. Blood specimens were collected from contacts within 30-60 days of index case diagnosis; and serum was tested for presence of spike and nucleocapsid SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 prior infections among household contacts was defined based on the presence of both spike and nucleocapsid antibodies. We fitted a chain binomial model to the serologic data, to account for exogenous community infection risk and potential multi-generational transmissions within the household. RESULTS: Overall seroprevalence was 53% (95% confidence interval (CI) 48-58%) among household contacts. The estimated household secondary attack rate is 34% (95% CI 5-75%). Mask wearing by the index case is associated with the household transmission risk reduction by 67% (adjusted odds ratio = 0.33 with 95% CI: 0.09-0.75) and not sharing bedroom with the index case is associated with the risk reduction of household transmission by 78% (adjusted odds ratio = 0.22 with 95% CI 0.10-0.41). The estimated distribution of household secondary attack rates is highly heterogeneous across index cases, with 30% of index cases being the source for 80% of secondary cases. CONCLUSIONS: Modeling analysis suggests that behavioral factors are important drivers of the observed SARS-CoV-2 transmission heterogeneity within the household.

When living in the same house with known SARS-CoV-2 cases, household members may change their behavior and adopt preventive measures to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. To understand how behavioral factors affect SARS-CoV-2 spreading in household settings, we focused on household members of individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and followed the way SARS-CoV-2 spread within the household, by looking at who had antibodies against the virus, which means they were infected. We also asked participants detailed questions about their behavior and applied mathematical modeling to evaluate its impact on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We found that mask-wearing by the SARS-CoV-2 cases, and avoiding sharing a bedroom with the infected individuals, reduces SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, caring for SARS-CoV-2 cases, and prolonged interaction with infected individuals facilitate SARS-CoV-2 spreading. Our study helps inform what behaviors can help reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a household.

Incidence of nontuberculous mycobacteria infections among persons with cystic fibrosis in the United States (2010-2019).

BACKGROUND: Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are ubiquitous, environmental bacteria that can cause chronic lung disease. Persons with cystic fibrosis (pwCF) are at high risk for NTM. Approximately 1 in 5 pwCF in the United States (U.S.) is affected by pathogenic NTM species, and incidence rates of NTM have been increasing among pwCF as well as in the general population. Prevalence of NTM pulmonary infections (PI) varies widely across the United States because of geographic variation in environmental exposures. This study will present updated region-level incidence of NTM infections in the cystic fibrosis (CF) population in the U.S. METHODS: We used the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) data for the period 2010 through 2019. Our study population comprised persons with CF ≥ 12 years of age who had been tested for NTM PI. We included only registry participants with NTM culture results. We defined incident cases as persons with one positive mycobacterial culture preceded by ≥ two negative mycobacterial cultures. We defined non-cases as persons with ≥ two negative mycobacterial cultures. We estimated average annual NTM PI incidence by region. Using quasi-Poisson models, we calculated annual percent change in incidence by region. RESULTS: We identified 3,771 incident NTM infections. Of these cases, 1,816 (48.2%) were Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) infections and 960 (25.5%) were Mycobacterium abscessus infections. The average annual incidence of NTM PI among pwCF in the U.S. was 58.0 cases per 1,000 persons. The Northeast had the highest incidence of MAC (33.5/1,000 persons tested) and the South had the highest incidence of M. abscessus (20.3/1,000 persons tested). From 2010 to 2019, the annual incidence of total NTM PI increased significantly by 3.5% per year in the U.S. CONCLUSIONS: NTM PI incidence is increasing among pwCF. Identifying high risk areas and increasing trends is important for allocating public health and clinical resources as well as evaluating interventions.

Epidemiology of Pulmonary and Extrapulmonary Nontuberculous Mycobacteria Infections at 4 US Emerging Infections Program Sites: A 6-Month Pilot.

BACKGROUND: Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) cause pulmonary (PNTM) and extrapulmonary (ENTM) disease. Infections are difficult to diagnose and treat, and exposures occur in healthcare and community settings. In the United States, NTM epidemiology has been described largely through analyses of microbiology data from health departments, electronic health records, and administrative data. We describe findings from a multisite pilot of active, laboratory- and population-based NTM surveillance. METHODS: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infections Program conducted NTM surveillance at 4 sites (Colorado, 5 counties; Minnesota, 2 counties; New York, 2 counties; and Oregon, 3 counties [PNTM] and statewide [ENTM]) from 1 October 2019 through 31 March 2020. PNTM cases were defined using published microbiologic criteria. ENTM cases required NTM isolation from a nonpulmonary specimen, excluding stool and rectal swabs. Patient data were collected via medical record review. RESULTS: Overall, 299 NTM cases were reported (PNTM: 231, 77%); Mycobacterium avium complex was the most common species group. Annualized prevalence was 7.5/100 000 population (PNTM: 6.1/100 000; ENTM: 1.4/100 000). Most patients had signs or symptoms in the 14 days before positive specimen collection (ENTM: 62, 91.2%; PNTM: 201, 87.0%). Of PNTM cases, 145 (62.8%) were female and 168 (72.7%) had underlying chronic lung disease. Among ENTM cases, 29 (42.6%) were female, 21 (30.9%) did not have documented underlying conditions, and 26 (38.2%) had infection at the site of a medical device or procedure. CONCLUSIONS: Active, population-based NTM surveillance will provide data for monitoring the burden of disease and characterize affected populations to inform interventions.

Environmental risk of nontuberculous mycobacterial infection: Strategies for advancing methodology.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases organized a symposium in June 2022, to facilitate discussion of the environmental risks for nontuberculous mycobacteria exposure and disease. The expert researchers presented recent studies and identified numerous research gaps. This report summarizes the discussion and identifies six major areas of future research related to culture-based and culture independent laboratory methods, alternate culture media and culturing conditions, frameworks for standardized laboratory methods, improved environmental sampling strategies, validation of exposure measures, and availability of high-quality spatiotemporal data.

Methods of isolation and identification of nontuberculous mycobacteria from environmental samples: A scoping review.

Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are ubiquitous in the environment. Some species of NTM are pathogenic and cause lung disease in susceptible persons. Epidemiologic studies of environmental NTM infection risk rely on both culture-dependent and culture-independent techniques for NTM isolation and identification. In this review, we summarized current methods used to isolate and identify NTM from the environment. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science: Core Collection, and Global Health (CAB Direct) for peer-reviewed studies from the last 12 years. We identified 1685 unique citations and 110 studies met our inclusion and exclusion criteria. Approximately half (55%) of the studies identified in this review used a combination of culture-independent and culture-dependent methods. The most common environmental substrate analyzed was water (n = 90). Identification of current, common methods for the isolation and identification of NTM from environmental samples may contribute to the development of standard methodological practices in the future. The choice of isolation method is based on the research question, environment, and species. A summary of common methods may contribute to the development of standard practices for isolation and identification of NTM from environmental samples, which may lead to more robust and comparable results.

Detecting clusters of high nontuberculous mycobacteria infection risk for persons with cystic fibrosis - An analysis of U.S. counties.

Nontuberculous mycobacteria are ubiquitous environmental bacteria that frequently cause disease in persons with cystic fibrosis (pwCF). The risks for NTM infection vary geographically. Detection of high-risk areas is important for focusing prevention efforts. In this study, we apply five cluster detection methods to identify counties with high NTM infection risk. Four clusters were detected by at least three of the five methods, including twenty-five counties in five states. The geographic area and number of counties in each cluster depended upon the detection method used. Identifying these clusters supports future studies of environmental predictors of infection and will inform control and prevention efforts.

Vanadium in groundwater aquifers increases the risk of MAC pulmonary infection in O'ahu, Hawai'i.

Hawai'i has the highest prevalence of nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) pulmonary disease in the United States. Previous studies indicate that certain trace metals in surface water increase the risk of NTM infection. Objective: To identify whether trace metals influence the risk of NTM infection in O'ahu, Hawai'i. Methods: A population-based ecologic cohort study was conducted using NTM infection incidence data from patients enrolled at Kaiser Permanente Hawai'i during 2005-2019. We obtained sociodemographic, microbiologic, and geocoded residential data for all Kaiser Permanente Hawai'i beneficiaries. To estimate the risk of NTM pulmonary infection from exposure to groundwater constituents, we obtained groundwater data from three data sources: (1) Water Quality Portal; (2) the Hawai'i Department of Health; and (3) Brigham Young University, Department of Geological Science faculty. Data were aggregated by an aquifer and were associated with the corresponding beneficiary aquifer of residence. We used Poisson regression models with backward elimination to generate models for NTM infection risk as a function of groundwater constituents. We modeled two outcomes: Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) species and Mycobacterium abscessus group species. Results: For every 1-unit increase in the log concentration of vanadium in groundwater at the aquifer level, infection risk increased by 22% among MAC patients. We did not observe significant associations between water-quality constituents and infection risk among M. abscessus patients. Conclusions: Concentrations of vanadium in groundwater were associated with MAC pulmonary infection in O'ahu, Hawai'i. These findings provide evidence that naturally occurring trace metals influence the presence of NTM in water sources that supply municipal water systems.

Estimating vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization and death from ecologic data in Costa Rica.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials and individual-level observational data in Israel demonstrated approximately 95% effectiveness of mRNA-based vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Individual-level data are not available in many countries, particularly low- and middle- income countries. Using a novel Poisson regression model, we analyzed ecologic data in Costa Rica to estimate vaccine effectiveness and assess the usefulness of this approach. METHODS: We used national data from December 1, 2020 to May 13, 2021 to ascertain incidence, hospitalizations and deaths within ecologic units defined by 14 age groups, gender, 105 geographic areas, and day of the epidemic. Within each unit we used the proportions of the population with one and with two vaccinations, primarily tozinameran. Using a non-standard Poisson regression model that included an ecologic-unit-specific rate factor to describe rates without vaccination and a factor that depended on vaccine effectiveness parameters and proportions vaccinated, we estimated vaccine effectiveness. RESULTS: In 3.621 million persons aged 20 or older, there were 125,031 incident cases, 7716 hospitalizations, and 1929 deaths following SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis; 73% of those aged ≥ 75 years received two doses. For one dose, estimated effectiveness was 59% (95% confidence interval 53% to 64%) for SARS-CoV-2 incidence, 76% (68% to 85%) for hospitalizations, and 63% (47% to 80%) for deaths. For two doses, the respective estimates of effectiveness were 93% (90% to 96%), 100% (97% to 100%), and 100% (97% to 100%). CONCLUSIONS: These effectiveness estimates agree well with findings from clinical trials and individual-level observational studies and indicate high effectiveness in the general population of Costa Rica. This novel statistical approach is promising for countries where ecologic, but not individual-level, data are available. The method could also be adapted to monitor vaccine effectiveness over calendar time.

Behavioral factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission heterogeneity within a household cohort in Costa Rica.

Variability in household secondary attack rates (SAR) and transmission risks factors of SARS-CoV-2 remain poorly understood. To characterize SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a household setting, we conducted a household serologic study of SARS-CoV-2 in Costa Rica, with SARS-CoV-2 index cases selected from a larger prospective cohort study and their household contacts were enrolled. A total of 719 household contacts of 304 household index cases were enrolled from November 21, 2020, through July 31, 2021. Demographic, clinical, and behavioral information was collected from the index cases and their household contacts. Blood specimens were collected from contacts within 30-60 days of index case diagnosis; and serum was tested for presence of spike and nucleocapsid SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 prior infections among household contacts was defined based on the presence of both spike and nucleocapsid antibodies. To avoid making strong assumptions that the index case was the sole source of infections among household contacts, we fitted a chain binomial model to the serologic data, which allowed us to account for exogenous community infection risk as well as potential multi-generational transmissions within the household. Overall seroprevalence was 53% (95% confidence interval (CI) 48% - 58%) among household contacts The estimated household secondary attack rate (SAR) was 32% (95% CI 5% - 74%) and the average community infection risk was 19% (95% CI 14% - 26%). Mask wearing by the index case was associated with the household transmission risk reduction by 67% (adjusted odds ratio = 0.33 with 95% CI: 0.09-0.75) and sleeping in a separate bedroom from the index case reduced the risk of household transmission by 78% (adjusted odds ratio = 0.22 with 95% CI 0.10-0.41). The estimated distribution of household secondary attack rates was highly heterogeneous across index cases, with 30% of index cases being the source for 80% of secondary cases. Modeling analysis suggests behavioral factors were important drivers of the observed SARS-CoV-2 transmission heterogeneity within the household.

Machine Learning in Infectious Disease for Risk Factor Identification and Hypothesis Generation: Proof of Concept Using Invasive Candidiasis.

Background: Machine learning (ML) models can handle large data sets without assuming underlying relationships and can be useful for evaluating disease characteristics, yet they are more commonly used for predicting individual disease risk than for identifying factors at the population level. We offer a proof of concept applying random forest (RF) algorithms to Candida-positive hospital encounters in an electronic health record database of patients in the United States. Methods: Candida-positive encounters were extracted from the Cerner HealthFacts database; invasive infections were laboratory-positive sterile site Candida infections. Features included demographics, admission source, care setting, physician specialty, diagnostic and procedure codes, and medications received before the first positive Candida culture. We used RF to assess risk factors for 3 outcomes: any invasive candidiasis (IC) vs non-IC, within-species IC vs non-IC (eg, invasive C. glabrata vs noninvasive C. glabrata), and between-species IC (eg, invasive C. glabrata vs all other IC). Results: Fourteen of 169 (8%) variables were consistently identified as important features in the ML models. When evaluating within-species IC, for example, invasive C. glabrata vs non-invasive C. glabrata, we identified known features like central venous catheters, intensive care unit stay, and gastrointestinal operations. In contrast, important variables for invasive C. glabrata vs all other IC included renal disease and medications like diabetes therapeutics, cholesterol medications, and antiarrhythmics. Conclusions: Known and novel risk factors for IC were identified using ML, demonstrating the hypothesis-generating utility of this approach for infectious disease conditions about which less is known, specifically at the species level or for rarer diseases.

Incidence of Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Pulmonary Infection, by Ethnic Group, Hawaii, USA, 2005-2019.

To further clarify differences in the risk for nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary infection (NTM-PI) among ethnic populations in Hawaii, USA, we conducted a retrospective cohort study among beneficiaries of Kaiser Permanente Hawaii (KPH). We abstracted demographic, socioeconomic, clinical, and microbiological data from KPH electronic health records for 2005-2019. An NTM-PI case-patient was defined as a person from whom >1 NTM pulmonary isolate was obtained. We performed Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate incidence of NTM-PI while controlling for confounders. Across ethnic groups, risk for NTM-PI was higher among persons who were underweight (body mass index [BMI] <18.5 kg/m2). Among beneficiaries who self-identified as any Asian ethnicity, risk for incident NTM-PI was increased by 30%. Low BMI may increase susceptibility to NTM-PI, and risk may be higher for persons who self-identify as Asian, independent of BMI.