Prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland 2015-2020: A multi-parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Drug-related deaths in Scotland more than doubled between 2011 and 2020. To inform policymakers and understand drivers of this increase, we estimated the number of people with opioid dependence aged 15-64 from 2014/15 to 2019/20. DESIGN: We fitted a Bayesian multi-parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) model, using adverse event rates to estimate prevalence of opioid dependence jointly from Opioid Agonist Therapy (OAT), opioid-related mortality and hospital admissions data. Estimates are stratified by age group, sex and year. SETTING: Scotland, 2014/15 to 2019/20. PARTICIPANTS: People with opioid dependence and potential to benefit from OAT, whether ever treated or not. Using data from the Scottish Public Health Drug Linkage Programme, we identified a baseline cohort of individuals who had received OAT within the last 5 years, and all opioid-related deaths and hospital admissions (whether among or outside of this cohort). MEASUREMENTS: Rates of each adverse event type and (unobserved) prevalence were jointly modelled. FINDINGS: The estimated number and prevalence of people with opioid dependence in Scotland in 2019/20 was 47 100 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 45 700 to 48 600) and 1.32% (95% CrI 1.28% to 1.37%). Of these, 61% received OAT during 2019/20. Prevalence in Greater Glasgow and Clyde was estimated as 1.77% (95% CrI 1.69% to 1.85%). There was weak evidence that overall prevalence fell slightly from 2014/15 (change -0.07%, 95% CrI -0.14% to 0.00%). The population of people with opioid dependence is ageing, with the estimated number of people aged 15-34 reducing by 5100 (95% CrI 3800 to 6400) and number aged 50-64 increasing by 2800 (95% CrI 2100 to 3500) between 2014/15 and 2019/20. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland remained high but was relatively stable, with only weak evidence of a small reduction, between 2014/15 and 2019/20. Increased numbers of opioid-related deaths can be attributed to increased risk among people with opioid dependence, rather than increasing prevalence.

Planning and implementing community-based drug checking services in Scotland: a qualitative exploration using the consolidated framework for implementation research.

BACKGROUND: Drug checking services (DCS) provide harm reduction support and advice to individuals based on chemical analysis of submitted substances of concern. Whilst there are currently no DCS in Scotland, community-based services are being planned in three cities. METHODS: In this paper, we report qualitative findings based on interviews with 43 participants, focused on perceptions of DCS and their implementation. Participants were relevant professionals, those with experience of drug use, and family members of those with experience of drug use. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) was used to inform data collection and analysis. We report findings under nine constructs/themes across the five CFIR domains. RESULTS: Participants noted the importance of DCS being implemented in low-threshold, trusted services with a harm reduction ethos, and outlined a range of further service design considerations such as speed of testing, and information provided through the analysis process. In relation to the 'inner setting', a key finding related to the potential value of leveraging existing resources in order to expand both reach and effectiveness of drug trend communication. The approach of local and national police to DCS, and the attitudes of the public and local community, were described as important external factors which could influence the success (or otherwise) of implementation. Bringing together a range of stakeholders in dialogue and developing tailored communication strategies were seen as ways to build support for DCS. Overall, we found high levels of support and perceived need for DCS amongst all stakeholder groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings present initial implementation considerations for Scotland which could be further explored as DCS are operationalised. Further, our focus on implementation contexts is relevant to research on DCS more generally, given the minimal consideration of such issues in the literature.

'It's not going to be a one size fits all': a qualitative exploration of the potential utility of three drug checking service models in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Scotland currently has the highest rates of drug-related deaths in Europe, so drug checking services are being explored due to their potential role in reducing these deaths and related harms. Drug checking services allow individuals to submit presumed psychoactive drug samples for analysis, and then receive individualised feedback and counselling. This paper explores participants' views on the advantages and challenges of three hypothetical service models, to inform future service delivery in Scotland. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 43 people: 27 professional stakeholders, 11 people with experience of drug use, and five family members across three cities. Vignettes were used to provide short descriptions of three hypothetical service models during the interviews. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Participants identified advantages and challenges for each of the three potential service models. The third sector (not-for-profit) model was favoured overall by participants, and the NHS substance use treatment service was the least popular. Participants also noted that multiple drug checking sites within one city, along with outreach models would be advantageous, to meet the diverse needs of different groups of people who use drugs. CONCLUSIONS: Drug checking services need to be tailored to local context and needs, with a range of service models being possible, in order to meet the needs of a heterogeneous group of people who use drugs. Addressing issues around stigma, accessibility, and concerns about the potential impact of accessing drug checking on access to and outcomes of drug treatment, are essential for successful service delivery.

Mortality among individuals prescribed opioid-agonist therapy in Scotland, UK, 2011-20: a national retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Drug-related death (DRD) rate in Scotland, UK, has increased rapidly to one of the highest in the world. Our aim was to examine the extent to which opioid-agonist therapy (OAT) in Scotland is protective against drug-related mortality and how this effect has varied over time. METHODS: We included individuals in Scotland with opioid use disorder who received at least one OAT prescription between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2020. We calculated drug-related mortality rates and used Quasi-Poisson regression models to estimate trends over time and by OAT exposure, adjusting for potential confounding. FINDINGS: In a cohort of 46 453 individuals prescribed OAT with a total of 304 000 person-years of follow-up, DRD rates more than trebled from 6·36 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 5·73-7·01) in 2011-12 to 21·45 (20·31-22·63) in 2019-20. DRD rates were almost three and a half times higher (hazard ratio 3·37; 95% CI 1·74-6·53) for those off OAT compared with those on OAT after adjustment for confounders. However, confounder adjusted DRD risk increased over time for both people off and on OAT. INTERPRETATION: Drug-related mortality rates among people with opioid use disorders in Scotland increased between 2011 and 2020. OAT remains protective but is insufficient on its own to slow the increase in DRD risk for people who are opioid dependent in Scotland. FUNDING: Scottish Government Drug Deaths Taskforce, Public Health Scotland, and National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Challenges for drug checking services in Scotland: a qualitative exploration of police perceptions.

BACKGROUND: The impact of policing practices on the engagement of people who use drugs (PWUD) with harm reduction services is well evidenced. Although the police have traditionally taken an enforcement role in responding to drug use, it is increasingly clear that they can play an important part in multiagency delivery of harm reduction interventions. Despite this, there have been no studies exploring police officer perceptions of drug checking services (DCS), which provide analytical testing of client drug samples alongside harm reduction support and advice. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 police officers to explore the policing and legal challenges which could be encountered in the delivery of DCS in Scotland. RESULTS: Participants expressed general support for DCS and described this support as part of a wider organisational shift towards public health-oriented policing. Participants also discussed different potential approaches to the policing of areas surrounding DCS including: formal limits on police presence around the service and/or stop and search powers in relation to personal possession; the effective decriminalisation of personal possession within a specified boundary around the service; and informal agreements between local divisions and DCS outlining expected policing practices. Any formal limitation on the capacity of police officers to respond to community concerns was viewed as problematic and as having the potential to erode public confidence in policing. Participants also highlighted the potential for frontline officers to utilise discretion in ways which could undermine public health goals. Legislative change, or national strategic guidance from relevant stakeholders, was seen as a means of providing 'cover', enabling local divisions to support the operation of drug checking. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a small sample of participants, this study summarises key challenges to be addressed in the implementation and operation of DCS in Scotland, and more widely. The paper concludes with suggested opportunities to develop approaches to policing that can facilitate rather than impede implementation and operation of these services.

High willingness to use drug consumption rooms among people who inject drugs in Scotland: findings from a national bio-behavioural survey among people who inject drugs.

BACKGROUND: To address rising drug-related harms (including significant transmission of HIV) among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Glasgow, officials have proposed the introduction of the UK's first drug consumption room (DCR) in Glasgow city centre. Using a nationally representative sample, this study aimed to determine willingness to use a DCR among PWID nationally, in Glasgow city centre (the proposed DCR location), other Scottish city centres (excluding Glasgow) and the rest of Scotland (excluding city centres). METHODS: Bio-behavioural survey, of 1469 current PWID (injected in last 6 months) across Scotland during 2017-18. Willingness to use DCRs was examined by drug-related risk behaviours and harms overall in Scotland, and then stratified by Glasgow city centre (n = 219), other Scottish city centres (n = 226) and the rest of Scotland (n = 1024). RESULTS: The majority of PWID overall in Scotland (75%) were willing to use a DCR; willingness was higher among those recruited in Glasgow city centre (83%) and other Scottish city centres (83%), compared to the rest of Scotland (72%) (p < 0.001). Willingness was greater among PWID who reported (compared to those who did not report) injecting heroin (76%, p = 0.002), cocaine injecting (79%, p = 0.014), homelessness (86%, p < 0.001), public injecting (87%, p < 0.001) and an overdose (80%, p = 0.026). Willingness was found to be associated with a cumulative multiple risk variable: increased from 66% among those with a score of zero to 85% with a score of at least three (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The vast majority of PWID at greatest risk of drug-related harm in Glasgow and elsewhere in Scotland would be willing to use a DCR, supporting proposals for the introduction of DCRs nationally.

Increased risk of HIV and other drug-related harms associated with injecting in public places: national bio-behavioural survey of people who inject drugs.

BACKGROUND: Whilst injecting drugs in public places is considered a proxy for high risk behaviour among people who inject drugs (PWID), studies quantifying its relationship with multiple drug-related harms are lacking and none have examined this in the context of an ongoing HIV outbreak (located in Glasgow, Scotland). We aimed to: 1) estimate the prevalence of public injecting in Scotland and associated risk factors; and 2) estimate the association between public injecting and HIV, current HCV, overdose, and skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI). METHODS: Cross-sectional, bio-behavioural survey (including dried blood spot testing to determine HIV and HCV infection) of 1469 current PWID (injected in last 6 months) recruited by independent interviewers from 139 harm reduction services across Scotland during 2017-18. Primary outcomes were: injecting in a public place (yes/no); HIV infection; current HCV infection; self-reported overdose in the last year (yes/no) and SSTI the last year (yes/no). Multi-variable logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with public injecting and to estimate the association between public injecting and drug-related harms (HIV, current HCV, overdose and SSTI). RESULTS: Prevalence of public injecting was 16% overall in Scotland and 47% in Glasgow city centre. Factors associated with increased odds of public injecting were: recruitment in Glasgow city centre (aOR=5.45, 95% CI 3.48-8.54, p<0.001), homelessness (aOR=3.68, 95% CI 2.61-5.19, p<0.001), high alcohol consumption (aOR=2.42, 95% CI 1.69-3.44, p<0.001), high injection frequency (≥4 per day) (aOR=3.16, 95% CI 1.93-5.18, p<0.001) and cocaine injecting (aOR=1.46, 95% CI 1.00 to 2.13, p = 0.046). Odds were lower for those receiving opiate substitution therapy (OST) (aOR=0.37, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.56, p<0.001) and older age (per year increase) (aOR=0.97, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.99, p = 0.013). Public injecting was associated with an increased risk of HIV infection (aOR=2.11, 95% CI 1.13-3.92, p = 0.019), current HCV infection (aOR=1.49, 95% CI 1.01-2.19, p = 0.043), overdose (aOR=1.59, 95% CI 1.27-2.01, p<0.001) and SSTI (aOR=1.42, 95% CI 1.17-1.73, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the need to address the additional harms observed among people who inject in public places and provide evidence to inform proposals in the UK and elsewhere to introduce facilities that offer safer drug consumption environments.

"Taking away the chaos": a health needs assessment for people who inject drugs in public places in Glasgow, Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Public injecting of recreational drugs has been documented in a number of cities worldwide and was a key risk factor in a HIV outbreak in Glasgow, Scotland during 2015. We investigated the characteristics and health needs of people involved in this practice and explored stakeholder attitudes to new harm reduction interventions. METHODS: We used a tripartite health needs assessment framework, comprising epidemiological, comparative, and corporate approaches. We undertook an analysis of local and national secondary data sources on drug use; a series of rapid literature reviews; and an engagement exercise with people currently injecting in public places, people in recovery from injecting drug use, and staff from relevant health and social services. RESULTS: Between 400 and 500 individuals are estimated to regularly inject in public places in Glasgow city centre: most experience a combination of profound social vulnerabilities. Priority health needs comprise addictions care; prevention and treatment of blood-borne viruses; other injecting-related infections and injuries; and overdose and drug-related death. Among people with lived experience and staff from relevant health and social care services, there was widespread - though not unanimous - support for the introduction of safer injecting facilities and heroin-assisted treatment services. CONCLUSIONS: The environment and context in which drug consumption occurs is a key determinant of harm, and is inextricably linked to upstream social factors. Public injecting therefore requires a multifaceted response. Though evidence-based interventions exist, their implementation internationally is variable: understanding the attitudes of key stakeholders provides important insights into local facilitators and barriers. Following this study, Glasgow plans to establish the world's first co-located safer injecting facility and heroin-assisted treatment service.

Mortality related to novel psychoactive substances in Scotland, 2012: an exploratory study.

BACKGROUND: The growth of novel psychoactive substances (NPS) over the last decade, both in terms of availability and consumption, is of increasing public health concern. Despite recent increases in related mortality, the circumstances surrounding and characteristics of individuals involved in NPS deaths at a population level remain relatively unknown. METHODS: The Scottish National Drug Related Death Database (NDRDD) collects a wide-range of data relating to the nature and circumstances of individuals who have died a drug-related death (DRD). We conducted exploratory descriptive analysis of DRDs involving NPS recorded by the NDRDD in 2012. Statistical testing of differences between sub-groups was also conducted where appropriate. RESULTS: In 2012, we found 36 DRDs in Scotland to have NPS recorded within post-mortem toxicology. However, in only 23 of these cases were NPS deemed by the reporting pathologist to be implicated in the actual cause of death. The majority of NPS-implicated DRDs involved Benzodiazepine-type drugs (13), mainly Phenazepam (12). The remaining 10 NPS-implicated deaths featured a range of different Stimulant-type drugs. The majority of these NPS-implicated deaths involved males and consumption of more than one drug was recorded by toxicology in all except one case. NPS-implicated deaths involving Benzodiazepine-type NPS drugs appeared to involve older individuals known to be using drugs for a considerable period of time, many of whom had been in prison at some point in their lives. They also typically involved combinations of opioids and benzodiazepines; no stimulant drugs were co-implicated. Deaths where stimulant-type NPS drugs were implicated appeared to be a younger group in comparison, all consuming two or more Stimulant-type drugs in combination. CONCLUSION: This exploratory study provides an important insight into the circumstances surrounding and characteristics of individuals involved in NPS deaths at a population level. It identifies important issues for policy and practice, not least the prominent role of unlicensed benzodiazepines in drug-related mortality, but also the need for a range of harm reduction strategies to prevent future deaths.

Methadone prescribing under supervised consumption on premises: a Scottish clinician's perspective on prescribing practice.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Specialist services have increased their capacity considerably in recent years to initiate and/or provide ongoing treatment for drug misuse. Consequently, methadone prescribing has substantially increased and over 17,000 patients are currently receiving methadone. Clinical guidance promotes consumption on the premises (COP) initially to ensure patients take medication as prescribed and also to prevent diversion. Diversion poses two risks: the patient may remain under-treated and continue illicit heroin use; diverted drugs put others at risk. However, COP can be restrictive. Current UK guidance is vague and not evidence-based recommending 'around three months subject to assessment of compliance and individual circumstances'. The overall aim of this study was to describe clinical practice regarding prescribing methadone under COP in Scotland, and reasons for this. Design and Methods. A structured, postal questionnaire was sent to all lead clinicians in specialist drug treatment centres in Scotland in 2009 (n=42). The questionnaire explored current practice, influence of supervision on retention, views of best practice and contingency management. RESULTS: The response rate was 76% (n=32). Clinicians usually supervise for a minimum of three months with patient-centred criteria used to determine when to reduce or stop COP. Employment, clinical stability, family support and concerns for the safety of children in the home influenced decision making. Contingency management approaches to supervision were widely used (62%). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: In Scotland, clinicians' practice is variable and individualised to patients, but generally cautious regarding relaxing supervision conditions. This may reflect the lack of evidence-based guidance.