Provincial Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Gasoline and Plug-in Electric Vehicles in China: Comparison from the Consumption-Based Electricity Perspective.

China has implemented strong incentives to promote the market penetration of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). In this study, we compare the well-to-wheels (WTW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensities of PEVs with those of gasoline vehicles at the provincial level in the year 2017 by considering the heterogeneity in the consumption-based electricity mix and climate impacts on vehicle fuel economy. Results show a high variation of provincial WTW GHG emission intensities for battery electric vehicles (BEVs, 22-293 g CO2eq/km) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs, 82-298 g CO2eq/km) in contrast to gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs, 227-245 g CO2eq/km) and gasoline hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs, 141-164 g CO2eq/km). Due to the GHG-intensive coal-based electricity and cold weather, WTW GHG emission intensities of BEVs and PHEVs are higher than those of gasoline ICEVs in seven and ten northern provinces in China, respectively. WTW GHG emission intensities of gasoline HEVs, on the other hand, are lower in 18 and 26 provinces than those of BEVs and PHEVs, respectively. The analysis suggests that province-specific PEV and electric grid development policies should be considered for GHG emission reductions of on-road transportation in China.

Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy.

For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.

Erratum: Author Correction: Machine learning model to project the impact of COVID-19 on US motor gasoline demand.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-0662-1.].

Carbon footprint of global natural gas supplies to China.

As natural gas demand surges in China, driven by the coal-to-gas switching policy, widespread attention is focused on its impacts on global gas supply-demand rebalance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here, for the first time, we estimate well-to-city-gate GHG emissions of gas supplies for China, based on analyses of field-specific characteristics of 104 fields in 15 countries. Results show GHG intensities of supplies from 104 fields vary from 6.2 to 43.3 g CO2eq MJ-1. Due to the increase of GHG-intensive gas supplies from Russia, Central Asia, and domestic shale gas fields, the supply-energy-weighted average GHG intensity is projected to increase from 21.7 in 2016 to 23.3 CO2eq MJ-1 in 2030, and total well-to-city-gate emissions of gas supplies are estimated to grow by ~3 times. While securing gas supply is a top priority for the Chinese government, decreasing GHG intensity should be considered in meeting its commitment to emission reductions.