Relationship between body mass index and mortality among Europeans.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and mortality from various causes. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Data of 72,947 European men and 62,798 women aged 24-99 years at baseline were collaboratively analyzed. Both absolute and relative mortality risks were estimated within each BMI categories. The hazard ratio was estimated using Cox regression analysis adjusting for age, cohort and smoking status. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 16.8 years, 29,071 participants died, 13,502 from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 8748 from cancers of all types. All-cause and cancer mortality showed a U-shaped relationship: decreased first, leveled off, and then increased with increasing BMI with the lowest mortality risk approximately between 23.0 and 28.0 kg/m(2) of BMI in men and 21.0 and 28.0 kg/m(2) in women. The U-shaped relationship held for all-cause mortality but disappeared for cancer mortality among non-smokers. The CVD mortality was constant until a BMI of approximately 28.0 kg/m(2) and then increased gradually in both men and women, which was independent of age, cohort and smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: A U-shaped relationship of BMI with all-cause mortality but a graded relationship with CVD mortality at BMI >28.0 kg/m(2) was detected. The relationship between cancer mortality and BMI largely depended on smoking status, and need to be further investigated with site-specific cancers.

Low-grade systolic murmurs in healthy middle-aged individuals: innocent or clinically significant? A 35-year follow-up study of 2014 Norwegian men.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether a low-grade systolic murmur, found at heart auscultation, in middle-aged healthy men influences the long-term risk of aortic valve replacement (AVR) and death from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Setting and subjects. During 1972-1975, 2014 apparently healthy men aged 40-59 years underwent an examination programme including case history, clinical examination, blood tests and a symptom-limited exercise ECG test. Heart auscultation was performed under standardized conditions, and murmurs were graded on a scale from I to VI. No men were found to have grade V/VI murmurs. Participants were followed for up to 35 years. RESULTS: A total of 1541 men had no systolic murmur; 441 had low-grade murmurs (grade I/II) and 32 had moderate-grade murmurs (grade III/IV). Men with low-grade murmurs had a 4.7-fold [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-11.1] increased age-adjusted risk of AVR, but no increase in risk of CVD death. Men with moderate-grade murmurs had an 89.3-fold (95% CI 39.2-211.2) age-adjusted risk of AVR and a 1.5-fold (95% CI 0.8-2.5) age-adjusted increased risk of CVD death. CONCLUSIONS: Low-grade systolic murmur was detected at heart auscultation in 21.9% of apparently healthy middle-aged men. Men with low-grade murmur had an increased risk of AVR, but no increase in risk of CVD death. Only 1.6% of men had moderate-grade murmur; these men had a very high risk of AVR and a 1.5-fold albeit non-significant increase in risk of CVD death.

Diabetes, prediabetes and cancer mortality.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to investigate the risk of cancer mortality in relation to the glucose tolerance status classified according to the 2 h OGTT. METHODS: Data from 17 European population-based or occupational cohorts involved in the DECODE study comprising 26,460 men and 18,195 women aged 25-90 years were collaboratively analysed. The cohorts were recruited between 1966 and 2004 and followed for 5.9 to 36.8 years. Cox proportional hazards analysis with adjustment for cohort, age, BMI, total cholesterol, blood pressure and smoking status was used to estimate HRs for cancer mortality. RESULTS: Compared with people in the normal glucose category, multivariable adjusted HRs (95% CI) for cancer mortality were 1.13 (1.00, 1.28), 1.27 (1.02, 1.57) and 1.71 (1.35, 2.17) in men with prediabetes, previously undiagnosed diabetes and known diabetes, respectively; in women they were 1.11 (0.94, 1.30), 1.31 (1.00, 1.70) and 1.43 (1.01, 2.02), respectively. Significant increases in deaths from cancer of the stomach, colon-rectum and liver in men with prediabetes and diabetes, and deaths from cancers of the liver and pancreas in women with diabetes were also observed. In individuals without known diabetes, the HR (95% CI) for cancer mortality corresponding to a one standard deviation increase in fasting plasma glucose was 1.06 (1.02, 1.09) and in 2 h plasma glucose was 1.07 (1.03, 1.11). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Diabetes and prediabetes were associated with an increased risk of cancer death, particularly death from liver cancer. Mortality from all cancers rose linearly with increasing glucose concentrations.

Long-term prognosis after coronary artery bypass surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events and total mortality among patients who had coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery during 1988-1992. METHODS: A population-based myocardial infarction (MI) register included data on invasive cardiac procedures among residents of the study area. The subjects aged 35-64 years were followed-up for 12 years for non-fatal and fatal CHD events and all-cause mortality, excluding events within 30 days of the CABG operation. CABG was performed on 1158 men and 215 women. RESULTS: The overall survival of men who underwent CABG was similar to the survival of the corresponding background population for about ten years but started to worsen after that. At twelve years of follow-up, 23% (n=266, 95% CI 234-298) of the men who had undergone the operation had died, while the expected proportion, based on mortality in the background population, was 20% (n=231, 95% CI 226-237). The CHD mortality of men who had undergone the operation was clearly higher than in the background population. Among women, the mortality after CABG was about twice the expected mortality in the corresponding background population. In Cox proportional hazards models age, smoking, history of MI, body mass index and diabetes were significant predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis of male CABG patients did not differ from the prognosis of the corresponding background population for about ten years, but started to deteriorate after that. History of MI prior to CABG and major cardiovascular risk factors was a predictor of an adverse outcome.

Oral glucose tolerance test is needed for appropriate classification of glucose regulation in patients with coronary artery disease: a report from the Euro Heart Survey on Diabetes and the Heart.

BACKGROUND: Patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and abnormal glucose regulation (AGR) are at high risk for subsequent cardiovascular events, underlining the importance of accurate glucometabolic assessment in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: To investigate different methods to identify glucose disturbances among patients with acute and stable coronary heart disease. METHODS: Consecutive patients referred to cardiologists were prospectively enrolled at 110 centres in 25 countries (n = 4961). Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and glycaemia 2 h after a 75-g glucose load were requested in patients without known glucose abnormalities (n = 3362). Glucose metabolism was classified according to the World Health Organization and American Diabetes Association (ADA; 1997, 2004) criteria as normal, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or diabetes. RESULTS: Data on FPG and 2-h post-load glycaemia were available for 1867 patients, of whom 870 (47%) had normal glucose regulation, 87 (5%) had IFG, 591 (32%) had IGT and 319 (17%) had diabetes. If classification had been based on the ADA criterion from 1997, the proportion of misclassified (underdiagnosed) patients would have been 39%. The ADA 2004 criterion would have overdiagnosed 8% and underdiagnosed 33% of the patients, resulting in a total misclassification rate of 41%. For ethical concerns and practical reasons, oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was not conducted in 1495 of eligible patients. These patients were more often women, had higher age and waist circumference, and were therefore more likely to have AGR than those who were included. A model based on easily available clinical and laboratory variables, including FPG, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, age and the logarithm of glycated haemoglobin A1c, misclassified 44% of the patients, of whom 18% were overdiagnosed and 26% were underdiagnosed. CONCLUSION: An OGTT is still the most appropriate method for the clinical assessment of glucometabolic status in patients with coronary heart disease.

Proteinuria and metabolic syndrome as predictors of cardiovascular death in non-diabetic and type 2 diabetic men and women.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Proteinuria predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD), but it is unclear whether this is explained by the association of the metabolic syndrome with proteinuria. Therefore, we investigated proteinuria and the metabolic syndrome as independent predictors of CVD death in men and women. METHODS: The cohort comprised 574 non-diabetic men, 707 non-diabetic women, 371 diabetic men and 349 diabetic women, all free of CVD at baseline. Modified World Health Organization criteria were used to define the metabolic syndrome, and a urinary protein concentration of >or=0.1 g/l (or >or=0.2 g/l) to define proteinuria. The endpoint was CVD mortality during the 18-year follow-up. RESULTS: Among non-diabetic men, CVD mortality per 1,000 person-years was as follows: no metabolic syndrome, no urinary protein group: 5.3; no metabolic syndrome, positive for urinary protein: 8.9; positive for metabolic syndrome, no urinary protein: 13.3; and positive for metabolic syndrome and urinary protein: 14.9. For non-diabetic women the corresponding values were: 0.9, 2.3, 4.9 and 7.9, respectively. Among diabetic men, CVD mortality per 1,000 person-years was 15.2, 32.5, 23.6 and 42.0 for the respective groups. Among diabetic women it was 25.3, 38.0, 26.3 and 40.3 (urinary protein in all cases defined as >or=0.1 g/l). In multivariate Cox models including both urinary protein and metabolic syndrome, the hazard ratios (HRs, 95% CI) of proteinuria for CVD mortality were 1.5 (0.9-2.4) in non-diabetic men, 1.8 (0.8-4.2) in non-diabetic women, 1.6 (1.0-2.6) in diabetic men and 1.6 (1.1-2.3) in diabetic women. Urinary protein as a continuous variable was associated with CVD mortality in all groups. The corresponding HRs for metabolic syndrome were: 1.6 (0.9-2.7), 4.0 (1.7-9.7), 1.5 (1.1-2.0) and 1.1 (0.8-1.5). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Proteinuria predicted CVD mortality independently of the presence of metabolic syndrome in non-diabetic and diabetic subjects. Metabolic syndrome predicted CVD mortality in non-diabetic women and in diabetic men, independently of the presence of proteinuria.

Myocardial infarction in diabetic and non-diabetic persons with and without prior myocardial infarction: the FINAMI Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We compared the risk of acute coronary events in diabetic and non-diabetic persons with and without prior myocardial infarction (MI), stratified by age and sex. METHODS: A Finnish MI-register study known as FINAMI recorded incident MIs and coronary deaths (n=6988) among people aged 45 to 74 years in four areas of Finland between 1993 and 2002. The population-based FINRISK surveys were used to estimate the numbers of persons with prior diabetes and prior MI in the population. RESULTS: Persons with diabetes but no prior MI and persons with prior MI but no diabetes had a markedly greater risk of a coronary event than persons without diabetes and without prior MI. The rate of recurrent MI among non-diabetic men with prior MI was higher than the incidence of first MI among diabetic men aged 45 to 54 years. The rate ratio was 2.14 (95% CI 1.40-3.27) among men aged 50. Among elderly men, diabetes conferred a higher risk than prior MI. Diabetic women had a similar risk of suffering a first MI as non-diabetic women with a prior MI had for suffering a recurrent MI. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Both persons with diabetes but no prior MI, and persons with a prior MI but no diabetes are high-risk individuals. Among men, a prior MI conferred a higher risk of a coronary event than diabetes in the 45-54 year age group, but the situation was reversed in the elderly. Among diabetic women, the risk of suffering a first MI was similar to the risk that non-diabetic women with prior MI had of suffering a recurrent MI.

Five-year risk of developing clinical diabetes after first myocardial infarction; the FINAMI study.

AIM: To investigate the incidence of clinical diabetes as determined by the incidence of diabetes drug reimbursements within a 5-year period after the first myocardial infarction (MI) in patients who were non-diabetic at the time of their first MI. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A population-based MI register, FINMONICA/FINAMI, recorded all coronary events in persons of 35-64 years of age between 1988 and 2002 in four study areas in Finland. These records were used to identify subjects sustaining their first MI (n = 2632). Participants of the population-based risk factor survey FINRISK (surveys 1987, 1992, 1997 and 2002), who did not have diabetes or a history of MI, served as the control group (n = 7774). The FINMONICA/FINAMI study records were linked with the National Social Security Institute's drug reimbursement records, which include diabetes medications, using personal identification codes. The records were used to identify subjects who developed diabetes during the 5-year follow-up period (n = 98 in the MI group and n = 79 in the control group). RESULTS: Sixteen per cent of men and 20% of women sustaining their first MI were known to have diabetes and thus were excluded from this analysis. Non-diabetic men having a first MI were at more than twofold {hazard ratio (HR) 2.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-3.4]}, and women fourfold [HR 4.3 (95% CI 2.4-7.5)], risk of developing diabetes mellitus during the next 5 years compared with the control population without MI. CONCLUSIONS: Many patients who do not have diabetes at the time of their first MI develop diabetes in the following 5 years.

Guía Europea de Prevención Cardiovascular en la Práctica Clínica (y II) / Spanish adaptation of the European Guidelines on Cardiovascular Prevention (and II)

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Risk factor management in diabetic and non-diabetic patients with coronary heart disease. Findings from the EUROASPIRE I AND II surveys.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We examined risk factor management in diabetic and non-diabetic patients with CHD based on data from EUROASPIRE surveys. METHODS: Consecutive CHD patients aged 70 years or younger were interviewed and examined at least 6 months after hospitalisation for a revascularisation procedure or acute myocardial infarction or ischaemia. Of these patients, 3569 were from the EUROASPIRE I study, undertaken from 1995 to 1996 in nine countries, and 5556 were from the EUROASPIRE II study, conducted between 1999 and 2000 in 15 countries. RESULTS: In EUROASPIRE I and II 18% and 20% of CHD patients respectively had been previously diagnosed with diabetes. Fasting glucose screening raised the prevalence of diabetes in EUROASPIRE II to 28%. In EUROSPIRE II the prevalence of risk factors (known diabetic/non-diabetic) was: current smoking 17%/22 % ( p=0.25); obesity (BMI >/=30 kg/m(2)) 43%/29% ( p<0.001); raised blood pressure (>/=140/90 mm Hg) 57%/49% ( p<0.001); and elevated total cholesterol (>/=5.0 mmol/l) 55%/59% ( p<0.001). The proportion of users of cardiovascular medication was: antiplatelet drugs 83%/86% (NS); beta-blockers 62%/63% (NS); ACE inhibitors 49%/35% ( p<0.001); and lipid-lowering drugs 62%/61% (NS). A comparison of both studies showed that for diabetic and non-diabetic patients the prevalence of smoking had increased somewhat and that the prevalence of obesity had increased clearly. There was no improvement in blood pressure control, but cholesterol control had improved, mainly explained by the increased use of lipid-lowering drugs. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These European surveys show a high prevalence of adverse lifestyles and modifiable risk factors among diabetic and non-diabetic patients with CHD. The risk factor status was more adverse in diabetic patients.

Prediction of the risk of cardiovascular mortality using a score that includes glucose as a risk factor. The DECODE Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Risk scores have been developed to predict cardiovascular or coronary risk, and while most have included diabetes as a risk factor, none have included lower glucose concentrations, either at fasting or following a 2-h oral glucose tolerance test. This article develops 5- and 10-year risk scores for cardiovascular mortality that include glucose concentrations as well as known diabetes status. METHODS: Data is from the DECODE cohort: 16,506 men and 8,907 women from 14 European studies. The risk factors studied were as follows: age, fasting and 2-h glucose (including cases of known diabetes), fasting glucose alone (including cases of known diabetes), cholesterol, smoking status, systolic blood pressure and BMI. For an absolute risk score the 1995 country- and sex-specific cardiovascular death rates were used. RESULTS: In men, for both 5- and 10-year cardiovascular mortality, after adjusting for age and study centre, all studied risk factors, except BMI, were significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality (p<0.05). These results were unchanged in multivariate models with all factors included. In women, after adjusting for age and centre, glucose categories, systolic blood pressure and BMI were predictive of 5-year cardiovascular mortality. With all factors in the model, only age and glucose categories were predictive. In terms of 10-year cardiovascular mortality, smoking status and blood pressures were also predictive in the women. For men and women, the same scores were used for the risk factors, except for age and glucose categories where the hazard ratios differed significantly. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Including glucose concentrations as well as diabetic status provides quantitative information on cardiovascular risk prediction.

Decline in out-of-hospital coronary heart disease deaths has contributed the main part to the overall decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates among persons 35 to 64 years of age in Finland: the FINAMI study.

BACKGROUND: Out-of-hospital deaths constitute the majority of all coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and are therefore of considerable public health significance. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used population-based myocardial infarction register data to examine trends in out-of-hospital CHD deaths in Finland during 1983 to 1997. We included in out-of-hospital deaths also deaths in the emergency room and all deaths within 1 hour after the onset of symptoms. Altogether, 3494 such events were included in the analyses. The proportion of out-of-hospital deaths of all CHD deaths depended on age and gender. In the age group 35 to 64 years, it was 73% among men and 60% among women. These proportions did not change during the study. The annual average decline in the age-standardized out-of-hospital CHD death rate was 6.1% (95% CI, -7.3, -5.0%) among men and 7.0% (-10.0, -4.0%) among women. These declines contributed among men 70% and among women 58% to the overall decline in CHD mortality rate. In all, 58% of the male and 52% of the female victims of out-of-hospital CHD death had a history of symptomatic CHD. Among men with a prior history of myocardial infarction, the annual average decline in out-of-hospital CHD deaths was 5.3% (-7.2, -3.2%), and among men without such history the decline was 2.9% (-4.4, -1.5%). Among women, the corresponding changes were -7.8% (-14.2, -1.5%) and -4.5% (-8.0, -1.0%). CONCLUSIONS: The decline in out-of-hospital CHD deaths has contributed the main part to the overall decline in CHD mortality rates among persons 35 to 64 years of age in Finland.

Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe: the SCORE project.

AIMS: The SCORE project was initiated to develop a risk scoring system for use in the clinical management of cardiovascular risk in European clinical practice. METHODS AND RESULTS: The project assembled a pool of datasets from 12 European cohort studies, mainly carried out in general population settings. There were 20,5178 persons (88,080 women and 11,7098 men) representing 2.7 million person years of follow-up. There were 7934 cardiovascular deaths, of which 5652 were deaths from coronary heart disease. Ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was calculated using a Weibull model in which age was used as a measure of exposure time to risk rather than as a risk factor. Separate estimation equations were calculated for coronary heart disease and for non-coronary cardiovascular disease. These were calculated for high-risk and low-risk regions of Europe. Two parallel estimation models were developed, one based on total cholesterol and the other on total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio. The risk estimations are displayed graphically in simple risk charts. Predictive value of the risk charts was examined by applying them to persons aged 45-64; areas under ROC curves ranged from 0.71 to 0.84. CONCLUSIONS: The SCORE risk estimation system offers direct estimation of total fatal cardiovascular risk in a format suited to the constraints of clinical practice.

Trends in coronary events in Finland during 1983-1997. The FINAMI study.

AIMS: To analyse the trends in incidence, recurrence, case fatality, and treatments of acute coronary events in Finland during the 15-year period 1983-97. METHODS AND RESULTS: Population-based MI registration has been carried out in defined geographical areas, first as a part of the FINMONICA Project and then continued as the FINAMI register. During the study period, 6501 coronary heart disease (CHD) events were recorded among men and 1778 among women aged 35-64 years. The CHD mortality declined on average 6.4%/year (95% confidence interval -5.4, -7.4%) among men and 7.0%/year (-4.7, -9.3%) among women. The mortality from recurrent events declined even more steeply, 9.9%/year (-8.3, -11.4%) among men and 9.3%/year (-5.1, -13.4%) among women. The proportion of recurrent events of all CHD events also declined significantly in both sexes. Of all coronary deaths, 74% among men and 61% among women took place out-of-hospital. The decline in 28-day case fatality was 1.3%/year (-0.3, -2.3%) among men and 3.1%/year (-0.7, -5.5%) among women. CONCLUSIONS: The study period was characterized by a marked reduction in the occurrence of recurrent CHD events and a relatively modest reduction in the 28-day case fatality. The findings suggest that primary and secondary prevention have played the main roles in the decline in CHD mortality in Finland.

Screening of family members of patients with premature coronary heart disease; results from the EUROASPIRE II family survey.

AIMS: To determine whether the Joint European Societies' recommendations that first degree blood relatives of patients with premature coronary heart disease (CHD) should be screened for coronary risk factors is being followed and, if so, how effectively these relatives are being managed. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using a postal questionnaire, 3322 relatives (siblings and children >/=18 years of age) of 1289 index patients in the EUROASPIRE II survey who had suffered from premature CHD (men under 55 years and women under 65 years) were asked whether screening for coronary risk factors had occurred and, if so, how they were being managed in terms of lifestyle advice and drug therapies. Overall, screening for coronary risk factors because of CHD in the family was only performed in 11.1% of siblings and 5.6% of children. However, prevalences of different cardiac risk factors were high both in relatives and offspring and a clear familial clustering could be documented. Less than 50% of siblings and 25% of children were given some general lifestyle advice regarding cardiac risk factors. Moreover, active interventions such as starting antihypertensive or lipid lowering drugs were rarely carried out, particularly in children of patients with premature CHD. CONCLUSIONS: European physicians rarely screen family members of patients with premature CHD for cardiac risk factors. General lifestyle style advice or active treatment for these risk factors are also rarely given. However, since these family members have a high prevalence and familial clustering of cardiac risk factors, they form an ideal target population for primary prevention of CHD in high-risk patients.

Variation in the fatty acid binding protein 2 gene is not associated with markers of metabolic syndrome in patients with coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: It has been suggested that the threonine (Thr) 54 allele of the intestinal fatty acid binding protein 2 (FABP2) gene is associated with insulin resistance and affects the fatty acid composition of serum lipids. Our aim was to investigate the frequency of the alanine (Ala) 54Thr polymorphism of the FABP2 gene in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD), and the association between the polymorphism and the markers of metabolic syndrome, serum lipid levels and the fatty acid profile of serum lipids. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 414 CHD patients (mean age 61 years, range 33-74) participated in the cross-sectional EUROASPIRE (European Action on Secondary Prevention through Intervention to Reduce Events) Study. Markers of metabolic syndrome included fasting plasma glucose concentration, serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides (TG), waist circumference, the waist/hip ratio, body mass index (BMI) and blood pressure (BP). The frequency of the Thr54 allele was similar in the CHD patients (27.2%) and control subjects from two independent studies (27.8% and 28.7%). There were no significant differences in plasma glucose, serum lipids, BP, BMI, waist circumference or waist/hip ratio among the genotypes. Genotype frequency was not associated with the prevalence of diabetes or metabolic syndrome, but metabolic syndrome (as defined by National Cholesterol Education Program criteria) tended to be more frequent in subjects with the Thr/Thr genotype (p = 0.095). There were no differences in the fatty acid profiles of serum cholesteryl esters, TG or phospholipids among the genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: The Ala54Thr polymorphism of the FABP2 gene is not associated with CHD, markers of the metabolic syndrome, or the fatty acid profile of serum lipids in Finnish CHD patients.

Two-hour glucose is a better risk predictor for incident coronary heart disease and cardiovascular mortality than fasting glucose.

AIMS: To assess the predictive value of fasting and 2-h glucose after a 75 g glucose load, with regard to incidence of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: 6766 subjects from five Finnish cohorts aged 30-89 years were followed up for 7-10 years. Hazards ratios associated with increasing glucose concentrations were homogeneous over studies. Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that the hazards ratio for one standard deviation increase in 2-h glucose after logarithmic transformation was 1.17 (95% CI 1.05-1.30) for coronary heart disease incidence and 1.22 (1.09-1.37) for cardiovascular mortality. For fasting glucose, they were 1.05 (0.94-1.17) and 1.13 (1.01-1.25), respectively. Inclusion of 2-h glucose in the model based on fasting glucose significantly improved the prediction (P<0.005 for coronary heart disease incidence and P<0.025 for cardiovascular mortality), whereas fasting glucose did not add significant information to the model initially based on 2-h glucose (P>0.10 for both events). CONCLUSION: In subjects without a prior history of diabetes the association of 2-h glucose with coronary heart disease incidence and cardiovascular morality is graded and independent. The results of our study indicate that 2-h glucose is superior to fasting glucose in assessing the risk of future cardiovascular disease events.