Distribution, Determinants and Normal Reference Values of Aortic Arch Width: Thoracic Aortic Geometry in the Framingham Heart Study.

Study Objective: Aortic arch geometry changes with age, including an increase in aortic arch width (AAW). High AAW is a predictor of incident adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, but its distribution and determinants are unknown. We hypothesized that traditional CVD risk factors, in addition to age, are associated with increased AAW in community-dwelling adults. Study Design: Framingham Offspring and Third Generation cohort participants (N=3026, 52% Men) underwent thoracic multidetector computed tomography (MDCT). A referent group (733M, 738W) free of clinical CVD, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking, and diabetes was used to generate sex and 10-year age-group specific upper 90th percentile (P90) cut-points for AAW. AAW was measured as the distance between the cross-sectional centroids of the ascending and descending thoracic aorta. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify clinical correlates of high AAW (≥referent P90) in the overall study group. Results: Among referent participants, AAW increased with greater age-group, p for trend <0.0001 in each sex. Overall and within each age group, AAW was greater in men than women, p<0.0001 all comparisons. Across all participants, high AAW was associated with greater age (odds ratio, OR=1.34/10y; 95% confidence interval 1.20 - 1.50), body surface area (OR=1.97/SD; 1.62 - 2.40), diastolic blood pressure (OR=1.59/10mmHg; 1.40 - 1.81), pack-years smoked (OR=1.07; 1.02 - 1.13), and prevalent CVD (OR=1.64; 1.08 - 2.49). Conclusion: AAW increases with greater age, body size, diastolic blood pressure and burden of smoking. High AAW (≥referent P90) is also associated with prevalent (clinically apparent) CVD. AAW is often seen on and easily measured from tomographic thoracic images and has prognostic value.

Frailty and Cardiovascular Mortality: A Narrative Review.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The goal of the narrative review is to provide an overview of the epidemiology of frailty in cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular mortality and discuss applications of frailty in cardiovascular care of older adults. RECENT FINDINGS: Frailty is highly prevalent in older adults with cardiovascular disease and is a robust, independent predictor of cardiovascular death. There is a growing interest in using frailty to inform management of cardiovascular disease either through pre- or post-treatment prognostication or by delineating treatment heterogeneity in which frailty serves to distinguish patients with differential harms or benefits from a given therapy. Frailty can enable more individualized treatment in older adults with cardiovascular disease. Future studies are needed to standardize frailty assessment across cardiovascular trials and enable implementation of frailty assessment in cardiovascular clinical practice.

Prevalence and distribution of aortic plaque by sex and age group among community-dwelling adults.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Atherosclerosis of the aorta is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular mortality and vascular events. We aim to describe the prevalence and distribution of non-calcified atherosclerotic plaque in the descending aorta as quantified by noncontrast cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) in a community-dwelling cohort of adults. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used CMR to quantify noncalcified aortic plaque in 1726 participants (aged 65 ± 9 years, 46.7% men) from the Cohort Study Offspring cohort. ECG-gated, fat-suppressed, T2-weighted, black blood turbo spin echo sequence was used to acquire 36 transverse slices covering the descending aorta from just below the arch to the aortoiliac bifurcation. Plaque was defined as discrete luminal protrusions ≥1 mm; these were manually traced, then summed to determine total descending aortic plaque (DAP) and segmental thoracic and abdominal aortic plaque (TAP, AAP). Participants were stratified by sex and age group (<55, 55-64, 65-74, ≥75y). A healthy referent group (without clinical cardiovascular disease, smoking, diabetes, impaired renal function; (N = 768, 43.8% men) was used to determine upper 90th percentile cutpoints for DAP and AAP which were then applied to the overall study cohort. RESULTS: Prevalence of DAP was similar between men (47.3%) and women (48.9%), p = 0.50, as was AAP prevalence (men: 44.5%, women: 46.7%, p = 0.16); TAP was less prevalent in both sexes (men: 8.9%, women: 7.1%, p = 0.15). Both prevalence and burden of DAP, AAP and TAP increased with advancing age. CONCLUSION: Noncalcified plaque prevalence, visualized on CMR, in community-dwelling adults is similar between the sexes, and both prevalence and burden of aortic plaque increase with greater age.

Prediction of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality After Myocardial Infarction in US Veterans.

Risk prediction models for cardiovascular disease (CVD) death developed from patients without vascular disease may not be suitable for myocardial infarction (MI) survivors. Prediction of mortality risk after MI may help to guide secondary prevention. Using national electronic record data from the Veterans Health Administration 2002 to 2012, we developed risk prediction models for CVD death and all-cause death based on 5-year follow-up data of 100,601 survivors of MI using Cox proportional hazards models. Model performance was evaluated using a cross-validation approach. During follow-up, there were 31,622 deaths and 12,901 CVD deaths. In men, older age, current smoking, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, peripheral artery disease, and lower body mass index were associated with greater risk of death from CVD or all-causes, and statin treatment, hypertension medication, estimated glomerular filtration rate level, and high body mass index were significantly associated with reduced risk of fatal outcomes. Similar associations and slightly different predictors were observed in women. The estimated Harrell's C-statistics of the final model versus the cross-validation estimates were 0.77 versus 0.77 in men and 0.81 versus 0.77 in women for CVD death. Similarly, the C-statistics were 0.75 versus 0.75 in men, 0.78 versus 0.75 in women for all-cause mortality. The predicted risk of death was well calibrated compared with the observed risk. In conclusion, we developed and internally validated risk prediction models of 5-year risk for CVD and all-cause death for outpatient survivors of MI. Traditional risk factors, co-morbidities, and lack of blood pressure or lipid treatment were all associated with greater risk of CVD and all-cause mortality.

Estimation of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Among Patients in the Veterans Affairs Health Care System.

Importance: Current guidelines recommend statin therapy for millions of US residents for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). It is unclear whether traditional prediction models that do not account for current widespread statin use are sufficient for risk assessment. Objectives: To examine the performance of the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) for 5-year ASCVD risk estimation in a contemporary cohort and to test the hypothesis that inclusion of statin therapy improves model performance. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included adult patients in the Veterans Affairs health care system without baseline ASCVD. Using national electronic health record data, 3 Cox proportional hazards models were developed to estimate 5-year ASCVD risk, as follows: the variables and published ß coefficients from the PCE (model 1), the PCE variables with cohort-derived ß coefficients (model 2), and model 2 plus baseline statin use (model 3). Data were collected from January 2002 to December 2012 and analyzed from June 2016 to March 2020. Exposures: Traditional ASCVD risk factors from the PCE plus baseline statin use. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident ASCVD and ASCVD mortality. Results: Of 1 672 336 patients in the cohort (mean [SD] baseline age 58.0 [13.8] years, 1 575 163 [94.2%] men, 1 383 993 [82.8%] white), 312 155 (18.7%) were receiving statin therapy at baseline. During 5 years of follow-up, 66 605 (4.0%) experienced an ASCVD event, and 31 878 (1.9%) experienced ASCVD death. Compared with the original PCE, the cohort-derived model did not improve model discrimination in any of the 4 age-sex strata but did improve model calibration. The PCE overestimated ASCVD risk compared with the cohort-derived model; 211 237 of 1 136 161 white men (18.6%), 29 634 of 218 463 black men (13.6%), 1741 of 44 399 white women (3.9%), and 836 of 16 034 black women (5.2%) would be potentially eligible for statin therapy under the PCE but not the cohort-derived model. When added to the cohort-derived model, baseline statin therapy was associated with a 7% (95% CI, 5%-9%) lower relative risk of ASCVD and a 25% (95% CI, 23%-28%) lower relative risk for ASCVD death. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, lower than expected rates of incident ASCVD events in a contemporary national cohort were observed. The PCE overestimated ASCVD risk, and more than 15% of patients would be potentially eligible for statin therapy based on the PCE but not on a cohort-derived model. In the statin era, health care professionals and systems should base ASCVD risk assessment on models calibrated to their patient populations.

Aortic Arch Width and Cardiovascular Disease in Men and Women in the Community.

BACKGROUND: We sought to determine whether increased aortic arch width (AAW) adds to standard Framingham risk factors and coronary artery calcium (CAC) for prediction of incident adverse cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in community-dwelling adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 3026 Framingham Heart Study Offspring and Third Generation cohort participants underwent noncontrast multidetector computed tomography from 2002 to 2005 to quantify CAC. We measured AAW as the distance between the centroids of the ascending and descending thoracic aorta, at the level of main pulmonary artery bifurcation or the right pulmonary artery. We determined sex, age group, and body size specific cut points for high (≥90th percentile) AAW from a healthy referent group (N=1471) and dichotomized AAW as high or not high across all study participants. Clinical covariates were obtained at Offspring cycle 7 (1998-2001) or Third Generation cycle 1 (2002-2005) examinations. The primary CVD outcome was a composite of myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, cerebrovascular accident, first hospitalization for heart failure, or CVD death. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratio of high AAW on time-to-incident CVD after adjustment for Framingham risk factors and CAC. Net reclassification improvement was used to assess the effect of adding AAW to the baseline Framingham risk factor+CAC model. A total of 2826 participants (aged 51±11 years, 48% women) had complete covariates and were free of CVD at multidetector computed tomography. Over a median 8.9 years of follow-up, there were 135 incident CVD events. High AAW was independently predictive of CVD events (hazard ratio, 1.55; P=0.032) and appropriately reclassified participants at risk: net reclassification improvement, 0.31 (95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.48). CONCLUSION: AAW augments traditional CVD risk factors and CAC for prediction of incident adverse CVD events among community-dwelling adults.

Lack of Association Between Heart Failure and Incident Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Several recent studies have suggested an increased cancer risk among patients with heart failure (HF). However, these studies are constrained by limited size and follow-up, lack of comprehensive data on other health attributes, and adjudicated cancer outcomes. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine whether HF is associated with cancer incidence and cancer-specific mortality. METHODS: The study assembled a cohort from the Physicians' Health Studies I and II, 2 randomized controlled trials of aspirin and vitamin supplements conducted from 1982 to 1995 and from 1997 to 2011, respectively, that included annual health evaluations and determination of cancer and HF diagnoses. In the primary analysis, the study excluded participants with cancer or HF at baseline and performed multivariable-adjusted Cox models to determine the relationship between HF and cancer, modeling HF as a time-varying exposure. In a complementary analysis, the study used the landmark method and identified cancer-free participants at 70 years of age, distinguishing between those with and without HF, and likewise performed Cox regression. Sensitivity analyses were performed at 65, 75, and 80 years of age. RESULTS: Among 28,341 Physicians' Health Study participants, 1,420 developed HF. A total of 7,363 cancers developed during a median follow-up time of 19.9 years (25th to 75th percentile: 11.0 to 26.8 years). HF was not associated with cancer incidence in crude (hazard ratio: 0.92; 95% confidence interval: 0.80 to 1.08) or multivariable-adjusted analysis (hazard ratio: 1.05; 95% confidence interval: 0.86 to 1.29). No association was found between HF and site-specific cancer incidence or cancer-specific mortality after multivariable adjustment. Results were similar when using the landmark method at all landmark ages. CONCLUSIONS: HF is not associated with an increased risk of cancer among male physicians.

Preventing cardiovascular disease in older adults: One size does not fit all.

Frailty and cardiovascular disease are highly interconnected and increase in prevalence with age. Identifying frailty allows for a personalized cardiovascular risk prescription and individualized management of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, and lifestyle in the aging population.

Increased Aortic Diameters on Multidetector Computed Tomographic Scan Are Independent Predictors of Incident Adverse Cardiovascular Events: The Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Adverse aortic remodeling, such as dilation, is associated with multiple cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. We sought to determine whether measures of enlarged aortic diameters improve prediction of incident adverse CVD events above standard CVD risk factors in a community-dwelling cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants from the Framingham Offspring and Third Generation Cohorts (n=3318; aged 48.9±10.3 years), who underwent noncontrast thoracic and abdominal multidetector computed tomography during 2002 to 2005, had complete risk factor profiles, and were free of clinical CVD, were included in this study. Diameters were measured at 4 anatomically defined locations: the ascending thoracic aorta, descending thoracic aorta, the infrarenal abdominal aorta, and lower abdominal aorta. Adverse events comprised CVD death, myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, index admission for heart failure, and stroke. Each aortic segment was dichotomized as enlarged (diameter ≥upper 90th percentile for age, sex, and body surface area) or not enlarged; the hazard of an adverse event for an enlarged segment was determined using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Over a mean 8.8±2.0 years of follow-up, there were 177 incident adverse CVD events. In models adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors, enlarged infrarenal abdominal aorta (hazard ratio=1.57; 95% confidence interval=1.06 to 2.32) and lower abdominal aorta (hazard ratio=1.53; 95% confidence interval=1.00 to 2.34) were associated with an increased hazard of CVD events. Enlarged ascending thoracic aorta and descending thoracic aorta were not significantly associated with CVD events. CONCLUSIONS: Among community-dwelling adults initially free of clinical CVD, enlarged infrarenal abdominal aorta and lower abdominal aorta, on noncontrast multidetector computed tomography scans, are independent predictors of incident adverse CVD events above traditional risk factors alone.

Pulmonary Hypertension Is Associated With a Higher Risk of Heart Failure Hospitalization and Mortality in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease: The Jackson Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: African Americans develop chronic kidney disease and pulmonary hypertension (PH) at disproportionately high rates. Little is known whether PH heightens the risk of heart failure (HF) admission or mortality among chronic kidney disease patients, including patients with non-end-stage renal disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed African Americans participants with chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or urine albumin/creatinine >30 mg/g) and available echocardiogram-derived pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) from the Jackson Heart Study (N=408). We used Cox models to assess whether PH (PASP>35 mm Hg) was associated with higher rates of HF hospitalization and mortality. In a secondary, cross-sectional analysis, we examined the relationship between cystatin C (a marker of renal function) and PASP and potential mediators, including BNP (B-type natriuretic peptide) and endothelin-1. In our cohort, the mean age was 63±13 years, 70% were female, 78% had hypertension, and 22% had PH. Eighty-five percent of the participants had an estimated glomerular filtration rate >30 mL/min per 1.73 m2. During follow-up, 13% were hospitalized for HF and 27% died. After adjusting for potential confounders, including BNP, PH was found to be associated with HF hospitalization (hazard ratio, 2.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-4.86) and the combined outcome of HF hospitalization or mortality (hazard ratio, 1.84; confidence interval, 1.09-3.10). Log cystatin C was directly associated with PASP (adjusted ß =2.5 [95% confidence interval, 0.8-4.1] per standard deviation change in cystatin C). Mediation analysis showed that BNP and endothelin-1 explained 56% and 40%, respectively, of the indirect effects between cystatin C and PASP. CONCLUSIONS: Among African Americans with chronic kidney disease, PH, which is likely pulmonary venous hypertension, was associated with a higher risk of HF admission and mortality.

Relation of Risk Factors and Abdominal Aortic Calcium to Progression of Coronary Artery Calcium (from the Framingham Heart Study).

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) and abdominal aortic calcium (AAC) on multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) permit assessment of the presence and burden of coronary and systemic atherosclerosis. Risk factors for progression of CAC and AAC and the association of AAC with CAC progression have not been well characterized in a community-dwelling cohort. We studied 1,959 asymptomatic participants from the Framingham Heart Study who underwent serial MDCT scans with a median interval of 6.1 years. Primary outcomes were (a) the incidence of CAC and AAC (CAC >0 and AAC >0 with baseline CAC = 0 and AAC = 0) and (b) absolute progression of CAC (CAC > baseline CAC and AAC > baseline AAC). Covariates were collected at adjacent cycle examinations and included age, gender, use of antihypertensive therapy, use of lipid-lowering therapy, cigarette smoking, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Predictors for CAC and AAC progression included baseline CAC, baseline AAC, lipid-lowering therapy, diabetes, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, BMI, and serum creatinine. Multivariable stepwise logistic and linear regression models were used to test the association of these risk factors with CAC and AAC. Those who developed incident CAC on follow-up scanning comprised 18.8% of 1,124 participants, and 84.9% of 780 participants, with detectable baseline CAC, had further progression. Baseline AAC was a predictor of both CAC incidence and progression, independent of other risk factors. In stepwise models, addition of baseline AAC slightly improved the area under the curve from 0.72 (0.68 to 0.76) to 0.74 (0.70 to 0.78). In conclusion, standard cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with incidence and progression of CAC and AAC, and AAC augments CAC incidence and progression above cardiovascular disease risk factors.