Use of machine learning to identify patients at risk of sub-optimal adherence: study based on real-world data from 10,929 children using a connected auto-injector device.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to develop a machine learning model, using real-world data captured from a connected auto-injector device and from early indicators from the first 3 months of treatment, to predict sub-optimal adherence to recombinant human growth hormone (r-hGH) in patients with growth disorders. METHODS: Adherence to r-hGH treatment was assessed in children (aged < 18 years) who started using a connected auto-injector device (easypod™), and transmitted injection data for ≥ 12 months. Adherence in the following 3, 6, or 9 months after treatment start was categorized as optimal (≥ 85%) versus sub-optimal (< 85%). Logistic regression and tree-based models were applied. RESULTS: Data from 10,929 children showed that a random forest model with mean and standard deviation of adherence over the first 3 months, infrequent transmission of data, not changing certain comfort settings, and starting treatment at an older age was important in predicting the risk of sub-optimal adherence in the following 3, 6, or 9 months. Sensitivities ranged between 0.72 and 0.77, and specificities between 0.80 and 0.81. CONCLUSIONS: To the authors' knowledge, this is the first attempt to integrate a machine learning model into a digital health ecosystem to help healthcare providers to identify patients at risk of sub-optimal adherence to r-hGH in the following 3, 6, or 9 months. This information, together with patient-specific indicators of sub-optimal adherence, can be used to provide support to at-risk patients and their caregivers to achieve optimal adherence and, subsequently, improve clinical outcomes.

High Engagement of Patients Monitored by a Digital Health Ecosystem Indicates Significant Improvements of Key r-hGH Treatment Metrics.

The early adoption of digital health solutions in the treatment of growth disorders has enabled the collection and analysis of more than 10 years of real-world data using the easypod™ connect platform. Using this rich dataset, we were able to study the impact of engagement on three key treatment-related outcomes: adherence, persistence of use, and growth. In total, data for 17,906 patients were available. The three features, regularity of injection (≤2h vs >2h), change of comfort setting (yes/no), and opting-in to receive injection reminders (yes/no), were used as a proxy for engagement. Patients were assigned to the low-engagement group (n=1,752) when all of their features had the low-engagement flag (>2h, no, no) and to the high-engagement group (n=1,081) when all of their features had the high-engagement flag (≤2h, yes, yes). The low-engagement group was down-sampled to 1,081 patients (subsample of n=37 for growth) using the iterative proportional fitting algorithm. Statistical tests were used to study the impact of engagement to the outcomes. The results show that all three outcomes were significantly improved by a factor varying from 1.8 up to 2.2 when the engagement level was high. These results should encourage the promotion of engagement and associated behaviors by both patients and healthcare professionals.