RESUMEN
Introduction: The screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) scale (SAFE score) was recently developed to provide a prediction of the diagnosis of AF after an ischemic stroke. It includes 7 items: age ≥ 65 years, bronchopathy, thyroid disease, cortical location of stroke, intracranial large vessel occlusion, NT-ProBNP ≥250 pg/mL, and left atrial enlargement. In the internal validation, a good performance was obtained, with an AUC = 0.88 (95% CI 0.84-0.91) and sensitivity and specificity of 83% and 80%, respectively, for scores ≥ 5. The aim of this study is the external validation of the SAFE score in a multicenter cohort. Methods: A retrospective multicenter study, including consecutive patients with ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack between 2020 and 2022 with at least 24 hours of cardiac monitoring. Patients with previous AF or AF diagnosed on admission ECG were excluded. Results: Overall, 395 patients were recruited for analysis. The SAFE score obtained an AUC = 0.822 (95% CI 0.778-0.866) with a sensitivity of 87.2%, a specificity of 65.4%, a positive predictive value of 44.1%, and a negative predictive value of 94.3% for a SAFE score ≥ 5, with no significant gender differences. Calibration analysis in the external cohort showed an absence of significant differences between the observed values and those predicted by the model (Hosmer-Lemeshow's test 0.089). Conclusions: The SAFE score showed adequate discriminative ability and calibration, so its external validation is justified. Further validations in other external cohorts or specific subpopulations of stroke patients might be required.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Stroke is a highly prevalent disease that can provoke severe disability. We evaluate a predictive model based on the Minimum Basic Data Set (MBDS) compiled by the Spain Health Ministry, obtained for the period 2008-2012 for patients with ischaemic stroke in Spain, to establish the model's validity and to optimise its calibration. The MBDS is the main clinical-administrative database for hospitalisations recorded in Spain, and to our knowledge, no predictive models for stroke mortality have previously been developed using this resource. The main study aim is to perform an external validation and recalibration of the coefficients of this predictive model with respect to a chronologically later cohort. MATERIAL AND METHODS: External validation (testing the model on a different cohort to assess its performance) and recalibration (validation with optimisation of model coefficients) were performed using the MBDS for patients admitted for ischaemic stroke in the period 2016-2018. A cohort study was designed, in which a recalibrated model was obtained by applying the variables of the original model without their coefficients. The variables from the original model were then applied to the subsequent cohort, together with the coefficients from the initial model. The areas under the curve (AUC) of the recalibration and the external validation procedure were compared. RESULTS: The recalibrated model produced an AUC of 0.743 and was composed of the following variables: age (odds ratio, OR:1.073), female sex (OR:1.143), ischaemic heart disease (OR:1.192), hypertension (OR:0.719), atrial fibrillation (OR:1.414), hyperlipidaemia (OR:0.652), heart failure (OR:2.133) and posterior circulation stroke (OR: 0.755). External validation produced an AUC of 0.726. CONCLUSIONS: The recalibrated clinical model thus obtained presented moderate-high discriminant ability and was generalisable to predict death for patients with ischaemic stroke. Rigorous external validation slightly decreased the AUC but confirmed the validity of the baseline model for the chronologically later cohort.
RESUMEN
Previous studies have shown the relationship between N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with stroke mortality and functional outcome after an acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Knowledge of its association with systemic and neurological in-hospital complications is scarce. Our objective is to analyze this. We performed an observational, retrospective study that included consecutive AIS patients during a 1-year period (2020). A multivariate analysis was performed to identify if NT-proBNP levels were independently associated with in-hospital complications. 308 patients were included, of whom 96 (31.1%) developed systemic and 62 (20.12%) neurological in-hospital complications. Patients with any complication (39.3%) showed higher NT-proBNP levels than those without (median (IQR): 864 (2556) vs. 142 (623) pg/dL, p < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) pointed to 326 pg/dL of NT-proBNP as the optimal cutoff level for developing in-hospital systemic complications (63.6% sensitivity and 64.7% specificity for any complication; 66.7% and 62.7% for systemic; and 62.9% and 57.7% for neurological complications). Multivariate analyses showed that NT-proBNP > 326 pg/dL was associated with systemic complications (OR 2.336, 95% CI: 1.259-4.335), adjusted for confounders. This did not reach statistical significance for neurological complications. NT-proBNP could be a predictor of in-hospital systemic complications in AIS patients. Further studies are needed.
RESUMEN
Background and Purpose: An individual selection of ischemic stroke patients at higher risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) might increase the diagnostic yield of prolonged cardiac monitoring and render it cost-effective. Methods: The clinical, laboratory, and brain/cardiac imaging characteristics of consecutive ischemic stroke patients without documented AF were recorded. All patients underwent at least 72 h of cardiac monitoring unless AF was diagnosed before, transthoracic echocardiogram, blood biomarkers, and intracranial vessels imaging. A predictive grading was developed by logistic regression analysis, the screening for atrial fibrillation scale (SAFE). Results: A total of 460 stroke patients were analyzed to develop the SAFE scale, a 7-items score (possible total score 0-10): age ≥ 65 years (2 points); history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or obstructive sleep apnea (1 point); thyroid disease (1 point); NT-proBNP ≥ 250 pg/ml (2 points); left atrial enlargement (2 points); cortical topography of stroke, including hemispheric or cerebellar cortex (1 point); and intracranial large vessel occlusion (1 point). A score = 5 identified patients with paroxysmal AF with a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 80%. Conclusion: Screening for atrial fibrillation scale (SAFE) is a novel and simple strategy for selecting ischemic stroke patients at higher risk of having AF who can benefit from a more thorough etiological evaluation. External validation of SAFE in a multicenter study, with a larger number of patients, is warranted.
