Factors associated with non-fatal heart failure and atrial fibrillation or flutter within the first 30 days post COPD exacerbation: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: An immediate, temporal risk of heart failure and arrhythmias after a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) exacerbation has been demonstrated, particularly in the first month post-exacerbation. However, the clinical profile of patients who develop heart failure (HF) or atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) following exacerbation is unclear. Therefore we examined factors associated with people being hospitalized for HF or AF, respectively, following a COPD exacerbation. METHODS: We conducted two nested case-control studies, using primary care electronic healthcare records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, Office for National Statistics for mortality, and socioeconomic data (2014-2020). Cases had hospitalization for HF or AF within 30 days of a COPD exacerbation, with controls matched by GP practice (HF 2:1;AF 3:1). We used conditional logistic regression to explore demographic and clinical factors associated with HF and AF hospitalization. RESULTS: Odds of HF hospitalization (1,569 cases, 3,138 controls) increased with age, type II diabetes, obesity, HF and arrhythmia history, exacerbation severity (hospitalization), most cardiovascular medications, GOLD airflow obstruction, MRC dyspnea score, and chronic kidney disease. Strongest associations were for severe exacerbations (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=6.25, 95%CI 5.10-7.66), prior HF (aOR=2.57, 95%CI 1.73-3.83), age≥80 years (aOR=2.41, 95%CI 1.88-3.09), and prior diuretics prescription (aOR=2.81, 95%CI 2.29-3.45). Odds of AF hospitalization (841 cases, 2,523 controls) increased with age, male sex, severe exacerbation, arrhythmia and pulmonary hypertension history and most cardiovascular medications. Strongest associations were for severe exacerbations (aOR=5.78, 95%CI 4.45-7.50), age≥80 years (aOR=3.15, 95%CI 2.26-4.40), arrhythmia (aOR=3.55, 95%CI 2.53-4.98), pulmonary hypertension (aOR=3.05, 95%CI 1.21-7.68), and prescription of anticoagulants (aOR=3.81, 95%CI 2.57-5.64), positive inotropes (aOR=2.29, 95%CI 1.41-3.74) and anti-arrhythmic drugs (aOR=2.14, 95%CI 1.10-4.15). CONCLUSIONS: Cardiopulmonary factors were associated with hospitalization for HF in the 30 days following a COPD exacerbation, while only cardiovascular-related factors and exacerbation severity were associated with AF hospitalization. Understanding factors will help target people for prevention.

Accuracy of the recording of pneumonia events in English electronic healthcare record data in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: In primary care, identifying pneumonia events in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) may be challenging due to similarities in symptoms with COPD exacerbations and lack of diagnostic testing. This study explored the accuracy of pneumonia diagnosis coded in primary care by comparing diagnosis in primary care with diagnosis in hospital. METHODS: A study population of people with COPD in England was created using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database linked with Hospital Episode Statistics inpatient data. Pneumonia codes only, and pneumonia code with associated clinical and/or treatment codes (chest x-ray, symptoms, antibiotics, sputum and blood culture) were used to determine pneumonia events in primary care. Events that were followed by hospitalisation within 7 days were used to estimate the positive predictive value (PPV) of pneumonia coding in primary care, using primary diagnosis of pneumonia in secondary care as the gold standard. The PPV of primary care recording of hospitalised pneumonia was also calculated. RESULTS: Two hundred seventy-four thousand one hundred fifty-six COPD patients were eligible for inclusion, of whom 7,560 had an eligible pneumonia event in primary care diagnosed between 2015-2019 which was not 'hospital-acquired' and was diagnosed and entered on the same day. Of the 2,094 events which were followed by hospitalisation within 7 days, 1,208 had a primary diagnosis of pneumonia in hospital, representing a PPV of pneumonia coding in primary care of 57.7% (95% CI 55.6%-59.8%). Another 284 (13.6%) were diagnosed as a COPD exacerbation and 114 (5.4%) were diagnosed as another respiratory disease. Use of additional pneumonia clinical and treatment codes had a modest effect on the PPV but substantially lowered the number of events. Of the 33,603 eligible pneumonia events identified in secondary care, only 11,445 were recorded in primary care within 42 days, representing a sensitivity of 34.1% (95% CI 33.6%-34.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Use of primary care pneumonia codes and associated clinical and treatment codes to determine pneumonia is not recommended due to significant levels of misdiagnosis and many hospitalised events failing to be recorded in primary care.

A Harmonised Approach to Curating Research-Ready Datasets for Asthma, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) in England, Wales and Scotland Using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank and DataLoch.

Background: Electronic healthcare records (EHRs) are an important resource for health research that can be used to improve patient outcomes in chronic respiratory diseases. However, consistent approaches in the analysis of these datasets are needed for coherent messaging, and when undertaking comparative studies across different populations. Methods and Results: We developed a harmonised curation approach to generate comparable patient cohorts for asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and interstitial lung disease (ILD) using datasets from within Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD; for England), Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL; for Wales) and DataLoch (for Scotland) by defining commonly derived variables consistently between the datasets. By working in parallel on the curation methodology used for CPRD, SAIL and DataLoch for asthma, COPD and ILD, we were able to highlight key differences in coding and recording between the databases and identify solutions to enable valid comparisons. Conclusion: Codelists and metadata generated have been made available to help re-create the asthma, COPD and ILD cohorts in CPRD, SAIL and DataLoch for different time periods, and provide a starting point for the curation of respiratory datasets in other EHR databases, expediting further comparable respiratory research.

Large-scale phenotyping of patients with long COVID post-hospitalization reveals mechanistic subtypes of disease.

One in ten severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections result in prolonged symptoms termed long coronavirus disease (COVID), yet disease phenotypes and mechanisms are poorly understood1. Here we profiled 368 plasma proteins in 657 participants ≥3 months following hospitalization. Of these, 426 had at least one long COVID symptom and 233 had fully recovered. Elevated markers of myeloid inflammation and complement activation were associated with long COVID. IL-1R2, MATN2 and COLEC12 were associated with cardiorespiratory symptoms, fatigue and anxiety/depression; MATN2, CSF3 and C1QA were elevated in gastrointestinal symptoms and C1QA was elevated in cognitive impairment. Additional markers of alterations in nerve tissue repair (SPON-1 and NFASC) were elevated in those with cognitive impairment and SCG3, suggestive of brain-gut axis disturbance, was elevated in gastrointestinal symptoms. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) was persistently elevated in some individuals with long COVID, but virus was not detected in sputum. Analysis of inflammatory markers in nasal fluids showed no association with symptoms. Our study aimed to understand inflammatory processes that underlie long COVID and was not designed for biomarker discovery. Our findings suggest that specific inflammatory pathways related to tissue damage are implicated in subtypes of long COVID, which might be targeted in future therapeutic trials.

Rheumatoid arthritis and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a bidirectional Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: A usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern of lung injury is a key feature of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and is also observed in up to 40% of individuals with rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD). The RA-UIP phenotype could result from either a causal relationship of RA on UIP or vice versa, or from a simple co-occurrence of RA and IPF due to shared demographic, genetic or environmental risk factors. METHODS: We used two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomisation (MR) to test the hypothesis of a causal effect of RA on UIP and of UIP on RA, using variants from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of RA (separately for seropositive (18 019 cases and 991 604 controls) and seronegative (8515 cases and 1 015 471 controls) RA) and of IPF (4125 cases and 20 464 controls) as genetic instruments. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the results to violations of the MR assumptions. FINDINGS: IPF showed a significant causal effect on seropositive RA, with developing IPF increasing the risk of seropositive RA (OR=1.06, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.08, p<0.001) which was robust under all models. For the MR in the other direction, seropositive RA showed a significant protective effect on IPF (OR=0.93; 95% CI: 0.87 to 0.99; p=0.032), but the effect was not significant when sensitivity analyses were applied. This was likely because of bias due to exclusion of patients with RA from among the cases in the IPF GWAS, or possibly because our genetic instruments did not fully capture the effect of the complex human leucocyte antigen region, the strongest RA genetic risk factor. INTERPRETATION: Our findings support the hypothesis that RA-UIP may be due to a cause-effect relationship between UIP and RA, rather than due to a coincidental occurrence of IPF in patients with RA. The significant causal effect of IPF on seropositive RA suggests that pathomechanisms involved in the development of UIP may promote RA, and this may help inform future guidelines on screening for ILD in patients with RA.

Prevalence and risk factors for long COVID among adults in Scotland using electronic health records: a national, retrospective, observational cohort study.

Background: Long COVID is a debilitating multisystem condition. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of long COVID in the adult population of Scotland, and to identify risk factors associated with its development. Methods: In this national, retrospective, observational cohort study, we analysed electronic health records (EHRs) for all adults (≥18 years) registered with a general medical practice and resident in Scotland between March 1, 2020, and October 26, 2022 (98-99% of the population). We linked data from primary care, secondary care, laboratory testing and prescribing. Four outcome measures were used to identify long COVID: clinical codes, free text in primary care records, free text on sick notes, and a novel operational definition. The operational definition was developed using Poisson regression to identify clinical encounters indicative of long COVID from a sample of negative and positive COVID-19 cases matched on time-varying propensity to test positive for SARS-CoV-2. Possible risk factors for long COVID were identified by stratifying descriptive statistics by long COVID status. Findings: Of 4,676,390 participants, 81,219 (1.7%) were identified as having long COVID. Clinical codes identified the fewest cases (n = 1,092, 0.02%), followed by free text (n = 8,368, 0.2%), sick notes (n = 14,469, 0.3%), and the operational definition (n = 64,193, 1.4%). There was limited overlap in cases identified by the measures; however, temporal trends and patient characteristics were consistent across measures. Compared with the general population, a higher proportion of people with long COVID were female (65.1% versus 50.4%), aged 38-67 (63.7% versus 48.9%), overweight or obese (45.7% versus 29.4%), had one or more comorbidities (52.7% versus 36.0%), were immunosuppressed (6.9% versus 3.2%), shielding (7.9% versus 3.4%), or hospitalised within 28 days of testing positive (8.8% versus 3.3%%), and had tested positive before Omicron became the dominant variant (44.9% versus 35.9%). The operational definition identified long COVID cases with combinations of clinical encounters (from four symptoms, six investigation types, and seven management strategies) recorded in EHRs within 4-26 weeks of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. These combinations were significantly (p < 0.0001) more prevalent in positive COVID-19 patients than in matched negative controls. In a case-crossover analysis, 16.4% of those identified by the operational definition had similar healthcare patterns recorded before testing positive. Interpretation: The prevalence of long COVID presenting in general practice was estimated to be 0.02-1.7%, depending on the measure used. Due to challenges in diagnosing long COVID and inconsistent recording of information in EHRs, the true prevalence of long COVID is likely to be higher. The operational definition provided a novel approach but relied on a restricted set of symptoms and may misclassify individuals with pre-existing health conditions. Further research is needed to refine and validate this approach. Funding: Chief Scientist Office (Scotland), Medical Research Council, and BREATHE.

Review of codelists used to define hypertension in electronic health records and development of a codelist for research.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hypertension is a leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Electronic health records (EHRs) are routinely collected throughout a person's care, recording all aspects of health status, including current and past conditions, prescriptions and test results. EHRs can be used for epidemiological research. However, there are nuances in the way conditions are recorded using clinical coding; it is important to understand the methods which have been applied to define exposures, covariates and outcomes to enable interpretation of study findings. This study aimed to identify codelists used to define hypertension in studies that use EHRs and generate recommended codelists to support reproducibility and consistency. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies included populations with hypertension defined within an EHR between January 2010 and August 2023 and were systematically identified using MEDLINE and Embase. A summary of the most frequently used sources and codes is described. Due to an absence of Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) codelists in the literature, a recommended SNOMED CT codelist was developed to aid consistency and standardisation of hypertension research using EHRs. FINDINGS: 375 manuscripts met the study criteria and were eligible for inclusion, and 112 (29.9%) reported codelists. The International Classification of Diseases (ICD) was the most frequently used clinical terminology, 59 manuscripts provided ICD 9 codelists (53%) and 58 included ICD 10 codelists (52%). Informed by commonly used ICD and Read codes, usage recommendations were made. We derived SNOMED CT codelists informed by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines for hypertension management. It is recommended that these codelists be used to identify hypertension in EHRs using SNOMED CT codes. CONCLUSIONS: Less than one-third of hypertension studies using EHRs included their codelists. Transparent methodology for codelist creation is essential for replication and will aid interpretation of study findings. We created SNOMED CT codelists to support and standardise hypertension definitions in EHR studies.

Incidence, prevalence and mortality of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in England from 2008 to 2018: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Owing to discrepancies in methodologies and how idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is diagnosed it is challenging to establish a consistent understanding of the disease burden In the UK, over 10 years ago, the incidence and prevalence of IPF were reported as 2.8-8.7 per 100 000 person-years (from 2000 to 2012) and 39 per 100 000 persons (in 2012), respectively. Here, we estimated the incidence and prevalence of IPF in England from 2008 to 2018 and investigated IPF mortality. METHODS: Using Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) linked datasets, we estimated incidence and prevalence using four validated diagnostic-code-based algorithms. Using the registered number of deaths (from Office of National Statistics) with the underlying cause being recorded as IPF, we estimated IPF mortality for the same period. RESULTS: Using Aurum-based definitions, incidence increased over time by 100% for Aurum narrow (3-6.1 per 100 000 person-years) and by 25% for Aurum broad (22.4-28.6 per 100 000 person-years). However, using HES-based definitions showed a decrease in incidence over the same period and lay between the two extremes derived for Aurum-based definition. IPF mortality in 2018 was 7.9 per 100 000 person-years and increased by 53% between 2008 and 2018. INTERPRETATION: When using best-case definitions, incidence rose throughout the study period. Scaling this to England's population (2018), our best estimate would be in the range of 8000-9000 new cases per year which is higher than previously reported estimates (5000-6000). This increased burden in the new cases of IPF each year impacts future health service planning and resource allocation.

Modifiable risk factors that may be addressed in routine care to prevent progression to and extension of multimorbidity in people with COPD: a systematic literature review.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a multisystem disease, and many patients have multiple conditions. We explored multimorbidity patterns that might inform intervention planning to reduce health-care costs while preserving quality of life for patients. Literature searches up to February 2022 revealed 4419 clinical observational and comparative studies of risk factors for multimorbidity in people with COPD, pulmonary emphysema, or chronic bronchitis at baseline. Of these, 29 met the inclusion criteria for this review. Eight studies were cluster and network analyses, five were regression analyses, and 17 (in 16 papers) were other studies of specific conditions, physical activity and treatment. People with COPD more frequently had multimorbidity and had up to ten times the number of disorders of those without COPD. Disease combinations prominently featured cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, asthma, musculoskeletal and psychiatric disorders. An important risk factor for multimorbidity was low socioeconomic status. One study showed that many patients were receiving multiple drugs and had increased risk of adverse events, and that 10% of medications prescribed were inappropriate. Many patients with COPD have mainly preventable or modifiable multimorbidity. A proactive multidisciplinary approach to prevention and management could reduce the burden of care.

Epidemiology of Dementia in China in 2010-2020: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Dementia has become one of the leading causes of death across the world. AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of dementia in China between 2010 and 2020, and to investigate any geographical, age, and sex differences in the prevalence and incidence of dementia. METHODS: Five databases were searched. The Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal tool was used to assess the quality of the included studies. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to estimate the pooled prevalence of dementia. Subgroup analysis was based on the type of dementia. The incidence and mortality of dementia were synthesized qualitatively. RESULTS: A total of 19 studies were included. The meta-analysis showed that the prevalence of dementia was 6% (95%CI 5%, 8%), the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) was 5% (95%CI 4%, 6%), and the prevalence of vascular dementia (VaD) was 1% (95%CI 0%, 2%). The subgroup analysis showed that the prevalence rates of dementia in rural (6%, 95%CI 4%, 8%) and urban areas were similar (6%, 95%CI 4%, 8%). Deaths due to dementia increased over time. CONCLUSION: The prevalence, incidence, and mortality of dementia increased with age and over time. Applying consistent criteria to the diagnosis of cognitive impairment and dementia is necessary to help with disease monitoring. Promoting dementia knowledge and awareness at the community level is necessary.

Greenhouse gas emissions associated with suboptimal asthma care in the UK: the SABINA healthCARe-Based envirONmental cost of treatment (CARBON) study.

BACKGROUND: Poorly controlled asthma is associated with increased morbidity and healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU). Therefore, to quantify the environmental impact of asthma care, this retrospective, cohort, healthCARe-Based envirONmental cost of treatment (CARBON) study estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the UK associated with the management of well-controlled versus poorly controlled asthma. METHODS: Patients with current asthma (aged ≥12 years) registered with the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2008‒2019) were included. GHG emissions, measured as carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), were estimated for asthma-related medication use, HCRU and exacerbations during follow-up of patients with asthma classified at baseline as well-controlled (<3 short-acting ß2-agonist (SABA) canisters/year and no exacerbations) or poorly controlled (≥3 SABA canisters/year or ≥1 exacerbation). Excess GHG emissions due to suboptimal asthma control included ≥3 SABA canister prescriptions/year, exacerbations and any general practitioner and outpatient visits within 10 days of hospitalisation or an emergency department visit. RESULTS: Of the 236 506 patients analysed, 47.3% had poorly controlled asthma at baseline. Scaled to the national level, the overall carbon footprint of asthma care in the UK was 750 540 tonnes CO2e/year, with poorly controlled asthma contributing excess GHG emissions of 303 874 tonnes CO2e/year, which is equivalent to emissions from >124 000 houses in the UK. Poorly controlled versus well-controlled asthma generated 3.1-fold higher overall and 8.1-fold higher excess per capita carbon footprint, largely SABA-induced, with smaller contributions from HCRU. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that addressing the high burden of poorly controlled asthma, including curbing high SABA use and its associated risk of exacerbations, may significantly alleviate asthma care-related carbon emissions.

Eligibility of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease for inclusion in randomised control trials investigating triple therapy: a study using routinely collected data.

BACKGROUND: Randomised control trials (RCTs) with strict eligibility criteria can lead to trial populations not commonly seen in clinical practice. We described the proportion of people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in England eligible for RCTs investigating treatment with triple therapy. METHODS: MEDLINE and Clinicaltrials.gov were searched for RCTs investigating triple therapy and eligibility criteria for each trial were extracted. Using routinely collected primary care data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum linked with Hospital Episode Statistics, we defined a population of COPD patients registered at a general practice in England, who were ≥ 40 years old, and had a history of smoking. Inclusion date was January 1, 2020. Patients who died earlier or left the general practice were excluded. Eligibility criteria for each RCT was applied to the population of COPD patients and the proportion of patients meeting each trial eligibility criteria were described. RESULTS: 26 RCTs investigating triple therapy were identified from the literature. The most common eligibility criteria were post-bronchodilator FEV1% predicted 30-80%, ≥ 2 moderate/≥ 1 severe exacerbations 12-months prior, no moderate exacerbations one-month prior and no severe exacerbations three-months prior, and the use of maintenance therapy or ICS use prior to inclusion. After applying each RCT eligibility criteria to our population of 79,810 COPD patients, a median of 11.2% [interquartile range (IQR) 1.8-17.4] of patients met eligibility criteria. The most discriminatory criteria included the presence exacerbations of COPD and previous COPD related medication use with a median of 67.6% (IQR 8.5-73.4) and 63% (IQR 69.3-38.4) of COPD patients not meeting these criteria, respectively. CONCLUSION: Data from these RCTs may not be generalisable to the wider population of people with COPD seen in everyday clinical practice and real-world evidence studies are needed to supplement trials to understand effectiveness in all people with COPD.

Post-acute COVID-19 neuropsychiatric symptoms are not associated with ongoing nervous system injury.

A proportion of patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 experience a range of neuropsychiatric symptoms months after infection, including cognitive deficits, depression and anxiety. The mechanisms underpinning such symptoms remain elusive. Recent research has demonstrated that nervous system injury can occur during COVID-19. Whether ongoing neural injury in the months after COVID-19 accounts for the ongoing or emergent neuropsychiatric symptoms is unclear. Within a large prospective cohort study of adult survivors who were hospitalized for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, we analysed plasma markers of nervous system injury and astrocytic activation, measured 6 months post-infection: neurofilament light, glial fibrillary acidic protein and total tau protein. We assessed whether these markers were associated with the severity of the acute COVID-19 illness and with post-acute neuropsychiatric symptoms (as measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire for depression, the General Anxiety Disorder assessment for anxiety, the Montreal Cognitive Assessment for objective cognitive deficit and the cognitive items of the Patient Symptom Questionnaire for subjective cognitive deficit) at 6 months and 1 year post-hospital discharge from COVID-19. No robust associations were found between markers of nervous system injury and severity of acute COVID-19 (except for an association of small effect size between duration of admission and neurofilament light) nor with post-acute neuropsychiatric symptoms. These results suggest that ongoing neuropsychiatric symptoms are not due to ongoing neural injury.

Using healthcare systems data for outcomes in clinical trials: issues to consider at the design stage.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare system data (HSD) are increasingly used in clinical trials, augmenting or replacing traditional methods of collecting outcome data. This study, PRIMORANT, set out to identify, in the UK context, issues to be considered before the decision to use HSD for outcome data in a clinical trial is finalised, a methodological question prioritised by the clinical trials community. METHODS: The PRIMORANT study had three phases. First, an initial workshop was held to scope the issues faced by trialists when considering whether to use HSDs for trial outcomes. Second, a consultation exercise was undertaken with clinical trials unit (CTU) staff, trialists, methodologists, clinicians, funding panels and data providers. Third, a final discussion workshop was held, at which the results of the consultation were fed back, case studies presented, and issues considered in small breakout groups. RESULTS: Key topics included in the consultation process were the validity of outcome data, timeliness of data capture, internal pilots, data-sharing, practical issues, and decision-making. A majority of consultation respondents (n = 78, 95%) considered the development of guidance for trialists to be feasible. Guidance was developed following the discussion workshop, for the five broad areas of terminology, feasibility, internal pilots, onward data sharing, and data archiving. CONCLUSIONS: We provide guidance to inform decisions about whether or not to use HSDs for outcomes, and if so, to assist trialists in working with registries and other HSD providers to improve the design and delivery of trials.

Cause-specific mortality in COPD subpopulations: a cohort study of 339 647 people in England.

BACKGROUND: Identifying correlates of cause-specific mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) may aid the targeting of therapies to reduce mortality. We determined factors associated with causes of death in a primary care COPD population. METHODS: Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum was linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and death certificate data. People with COPD alive between 1 January 2010 and 1 January 2020 were included. Patient characteristics were defined before the start of follow-up: (a) frequency and severity of exacerbations; (b) emphysema or chronic bronchitis; (c) Global Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) groups A-D; and (d) airflow limitation. We used Cox Proportional Hazards regression and competing risks to investigate the association between patient characteristics and risk of all-cause, COPD and cardiovascular (CV) mortality. RESULTS: 339 647 people with COPD were included of which 97 882 died during follow-up (25.7% COPD related and 23.3% CV related). Airflow limitation, GOLD group, exacerbation frequency and severity, and COPD phenotype were associated with all-cause mortality. Exacerbations, both increased frequency and severity, were associated with COPD-related mortality (≥2 exacerbations vs none adjusted HR: 1.64, 1.57-1.71; 1 severe vs none adjusted HR: 2.17, 2.04-2.31, respectively). Patients in GOLD groups B-D had a higher risk of COPD and CV mortality compared with GOLD group A (GOLD group D vs group A, adjusted HR for COPD mortality: 4.57, 4.23-4.93 and adjusted HR for CV mortality: 1.53, 1.41-1.65). Increasing airflow limitation was also associated with both COPD and CV mortality (GOLD 4 vs 1, adjusted HR: 12.63, 11.82-13.51 and adjusted HR: 1.75, 1.60-1.91, respectively). CONCLUSION: Poorer airflow limitation, worse functional status and exacerbations had substantial associations with risk of all-cause mortality. Differing results for CV and COPD-related mortality suggests interventions to prevent mortality may need to target particular characteristics or time points in the disease course.

Temporal Risk of Nonfatal Cardiovascular Events After Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation: A Population-based Study.

Rationale: Cardiovascular events after chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations are recognized. Studies to date have been post hoc analyses of trials, did not differentiate exacerbation severity, included death in the cardiovascular outcome, or had insufficient power to explore individual outcomes temporally.Objectives: We explore temporal relationships between moderate and severe exacerbations and incident, nonfatal hospitalized cardiovascular events in a primary care-derived COPD cohort.Methods: We included people with COPD in England from 2014 to 2020, from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care database. The index date was the date of first COPD exacerbation or, for those without exacerbations, date upon eligibility. We determined composite and individual cardiovascular events (acute coronary syndrome, arrhythmia, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and pulmonary hypertension) from linked hospital data. Adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate average and time-stratified adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs).Measurements and Main Results: Among 213,466 patients, 146,448 (68.6%) had any exacerbation; 119,124 (55.8%) had moderate exacerbations, and 27,324 (12.8%) had severe exacerbations. A total of 40,773 cardiovascular events were recorded. There was an immediate period of cardiovascular relative rate after any exacerbation (1-14 d; aHR, 3.19 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.71-3.76]), followed by progressively declining yet maintained effects, elevated after one year (aHR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.78-1.91]). Hazard ratios were highest 1-14 days after severe exacerbations (aHR, 14.5 [95% CI, 12.2-17.3]) but highest 14-30 days after moderate exacerbations (aHR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.63-2.31]). Cardiovascular outcomes with the greatest two-week effects after a severe exacerbation were arrhythmia (aHR, 12.7 [95% CI, 10.3-15.7]) and heart failure (aHR, 8.31 [95% CI, 6.79-10.2]).Conclusions: Cardiovascular events after moderate COPD exacerbations occur slightly later than after severe exacerbations; heightened relative rates remain beyond one year irrespective of severity. The period immediately after an exacerbation presents a critical opportunity for clinical intervention and treatment optimization to prevent future cardiovascular events.

QRISK3 underestimates the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with COPD.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The extent to which the excess CVD risk is captured by risk factors in QRISK, a widely used CVD risk scoring tool, is not well studied. METHODS: We created an incidence cohort of diagnosed COPD patients from the United Kingdom (UK) Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database (January 1998-July 2018). The outcome was a composite of fatal or non-fatal CVD events. Sex-specific age-standardised incidence ratios (SIR) were compared with values for the UK primary-care population. The observed 10-year CVD risk was derived using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and was compared with predicted 10-year risk from the QRISK3 tool. RESULTS: 13 208 patients (mean age 64.9 years, 45% women) were included. CVD incidence was 3.53 events per 100 person-years. The SIR of CVD was 1.71 (95% CI 1.61 to 1.75) in women and 1.62 (95%CI 1.54-1.64) in men. SIR was particularly high among patients younger than 65 years (women=2.13 (95% CI 1.94 to 2.19); men=1.86 (95% CI 1.74 to 1.90)). On average, the observed 10-year risk was 52% higher than QRISK predicted score (33.5% vs 22.1%). The difference was higher in patients younger than 65 years (observed risk 82% higher than predicted). CONCLUSION: People living with COPD are at a significantly heightened risk of CVD over and beyond their predicted risk. This is particularly the case for younger people whose 10-year CVD risk can be >80% higher than predicted. Risk scoring tools must be validated and revised to provide accurate CVD predictions in patients with COPD.

Experience in Accessing Healthcare in Ethnic Minority Patients with Chronic Respiratory Diseases: A Qualitative Meta-Synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Access to healthcare is part of every individual's human rights; however, many studies have illustrated that ethnic minority patients seem to be confronted with barriers when using healthcare services. Understanding how healthcare utilities are accessed from the perspective of patients and why healthcare disparities occur with patients from a minority background has the potential to improve health equality and care quality. This qualitative systematic review aims to gain insights into the experiences of people with chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) from a minority background and explore factors contributing to their experiences in accessing healthcare to inform related health policy makers and healthcare providers. METHODS: This systematic review complied with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses, where the Joanna Briggs Institute meta-aggregative instrument facilitated the qualitative synthesis. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022346055). PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and CINAHL were the databases explored. RESULTS: From the papers selected, 47 findings were derived from 10 included studies, and four synthesised findings were generated: (1) the relationship between patients and healthcare professionals affects the usage of healthcare services; (2) patients' perceptions and cultural beliefs affect their compliance with disease management; (3) personal behaviours affect the usage of healthcare services; and (4) health resource inequalities have an impact on accessing healthcare services. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review demonstrates that ethnic minorities with CRDs face inequalities when engaging in healthcare. The relationship between patients and clinicians impacting the use of healthcare is the most pivotal discovery, where not speaking the same language and being of a different race alongside the accompanying criticism and faith in facilities are key contributors to this effect. In addition, the thinking patterns of these marginalised groups may reflect their cultural upbringing and diminish their engagement with therapies. This paper has uncovered ways to attenuate inequalities amongst ethnic minorities in engaging with healthcare providers and provides insight into building effective equity-promoting interventions in healthcare systems. To overcome these disparities, coaching doctors to communicate better with minority cohorts could help such patients to be more comfortable in connecting with medical facilities.

Impact of COVID-19 on immunocompromised populations during the Omicron era: insights from the observational population-based INFORM study.

Background: Immunocompromised individuals are not optimally protected by COVID-19 vaccines and potentially require additional preventive interventions to mitigate the risk of severe COVID-19. We aimed to characterise and describe the risk of severe COVID-19 across immunocompromised groups as the pandemic began to transition to an endemic phase. Methods: COVID-19-related hospitalisations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and deaths (01/01/2022-31/12/2022) were compared among different groups of immunocompromised individuals vs the general population, using a retrospective cohort design and electronic health data from a random 25% sample of the English population aged ≥12 years (Registration number: ISRCTN53375662). Findings: Overall, immunocompromised individuals accounted for 3.9% of the study population, but 22% (4585/20,910) of COVID-19 hospitalisations, 28% (125/440) of COVID-19 ICU admissions, and 24% (1145/4810) of COVID-19 deaths in 2022. Restricting to those vaccinated with ≥3 doses of COVID-19 vaccine (∼84% of immunocompromised and 51% of the general population), all immunocompromised groups remained at increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes, with adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) for hospitalisation ranging from 1.3 to 13.1. At highest risk for COVID-19 hospitalisation were individuals with: solid organ transplant (aIRR 13.1, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 11.2-15.3), moderate to severe primary immunodeficiency (aIRR 9.7, 95% CI 6.3-14.9), stem cell transplant (aIRR 11.0, 95% CI 6.8-17.6), and recent treatment for haematological malignancy (aIRR 10.6, 95% CI 9.5-11.9). Results were similar for COVID-19 ICU admissions and deaths. Interpretation: Immunocompromised individuals continue to be impacted disproportionately by COVID-19 and have an urgent need for additional preventive measures beyond current vaccination programmes. These data can help determine the immunocompromised groups for which targeted prevention strategies may have the highest impact. Funding: This study was funded by AstraZeneca UK.