Machine learning-based prediction of in-hospital death for patients with takotsubo syndrome: The InterTAK-ML model.

AIMS: Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is associated with a substantial rate of adverse events. We sought to design a machine learning (ML)-based model to predict the risk of in-hospital death and to perform a clustering of TTS patients to identify different risk profiles. METHODS AND RESULTS: A ridge logistic regression-based ML model for predicting in-hospital death was developed on 3482 TTS patients from the International Takotsubo (InterTAK) Registry, randomly split in a train and an internal validation cohort (75% and 25% of the sample size, respectively) and evaluated in an external validation cohort (1037 patients). Thirty-one clinically relevant variables were included in the prediction model. Model performance represented the primary endpoint and was assessed according to area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity. As secondary endpoint, a K-medoids clustering algorithm was designed to stratify patients into phenotypic groups based on the 10 most relevant features emerging from the main model. The overall incidence of in-hospital death was 5.2%. The InterTAK-ML model showed an AUC of 0.89 (0.85-0.92), a sensitivity of 0.85 (0.78-0.95) and a specificity of 0.76 (0.74-0.79) in the internal validation cohort and an AUC of 0.82 (0.73-0.91), a sensitivity of 0.74 (0.61-0.87) and a specificity of 0.79 (0.77-0.81) in the external cohort for in-hospital death prediction. By exploiting the 10 variables showing the highest feature importance, TTS patients were clustered into six groups associated with different risks of in-hospital death (28.8% vs. 15.5% vs. 5.4% vs. 1.0.8% vs. 0.5%) which were consistent also in the external cohort. CONCLUSION: A ML-based approach for the identification of TTS patients at risk of adverse short-term prognosis is feasible and effective. The InterTAK-ML model showed unprecedented discriminative capability for the prediction of in-hospital death.

Ethnic comparison in takotsubo syndrome: novel insights from the International Takotsubo Registry.

BACKGROUND: Ethnic disparities have been reported in cardiovascular disease. However, ethnic disparities in takotsubo syndrome (TTS) remain elusive. This study assessed differences in clinical characteristics between Japanese and European TTS patients and determined the impact of ethnicity on in-hospital outcomes. METHODS: TTS patients in Japan were enrolled from 10 hospitals and TTS patients in Europe were enrolled from 32 hospitals participating in the International Takotsubo Registry. Clinical characteristics and in-hospital outcomes were compared between Japanese and European patients. RESULTS: A total of 503 Japanese and 1670 European patients were included. Japanese patients were older (72.6 ± 11.4 years vs. 68.0 ± 12.0 years; p < 0.001) and more likely to be male (18.5 vs. 8.4%; p < 0.001) than European TTS patients. Physical triggering factors were more common (45.5 vs. 32.0%; p < 0.001), and emotional triggers less common (17.5 vs. 31.5%; p < 0.001), in Japanese patients than in European patients. Japanese patients were more likely to experience cardiogenic shock during the acute phase (15.5 vs. 9.0%; p < 0.001) and had a higher in-hospital mortality (8.2 vs. 3.2%; p < 0.001). However, ethnicity itself did not appear to have an impact on in-hospital mortality. Machine learning approach revealed that the presence of physical stressors was the most important prognostic factor in both Japanese and European TTS patients. CONCLUSION: Differences in clinical characteristics and in-hospital outcomes between Japanese and European TTS patients exist. Ethnicity does not impact the outcome in TTS patients. The worse in-hospital outcome in Japanese patients, is mainly driven by the higher prevalence of physical triggers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique Identifier: NCT01947621.

Impact of Atrial Fibrillation on Outcome in Takotsubo Syndrome: Data From the International Takotsubo Registry.

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for mortality. The prevalence, clinical correlates, and prognostic impact of AF in Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) have not yet been investigated in a large patient cohort. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence, clinical correlates, and prognostic impact of AF in patients with TTS. Methods and Results Patients with TTS were enrolled from the International Takotsubo Registry, which is a multinational network with 26 participating centers in Europe and the United States. Patients were dichotomized according to the presence or absence of AF at the time of admission. Of 1584 patients with TTS, 112 (7.1%) had AF. The mean age was higher (P<0.001), and there were fewer women (P=0.046) in the AF than in the non-AF group. Left ventricular ejection fraction was significantly lower (P=0.001), and cardiogenic shock was more often observed (P<0.001) in the AF group. Both in-hospital (P<0.001) and long-term mortality (P<0.001) were higher in the AF group. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that AF was independently associated with higher long-term mortality (hazard ratio, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.50-3.55; P<0.001). Among patients with AF on admission, 42% had no known history of AF before the acute TTS event, and such patients had comparable in-hospital and long-term outcomes compared with those with a history of AF. Conclusions In patients presenting with TTS, AF on admission is significantly associated with increased in-hospital and long-term mortality rates. Whether antiarrhythmics and/or cardioversion are beneficial in TTS with AF should thus be tested in a future trial. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01947621.

Prognostic impact of acute pulmonary triggers in patients with takotsubo syndrome: new insights from the International Takotsubo Registry.

AIMS: Acute pulmonary disorders are known physical triggers of takotsubo syndrome (TTS). This study aimed to investigate prevalence of acute pulmonary triggers in patients with TTS and their impact on outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with TTS were enrolled from the International Takotsubo Registry and screened for triggering factors and comorbidities. Patients were categorized into three groups (acute pulmonary trigger, chronic lung disease, and no lung disease) to compare clinical characteristics and outcomes. Of the 1670 included patients with TTS, 123 (7%) were identified with an acute pulmonary trigger, and 194 (12%) had a known history of chronic lung disease. The incidence of cardiogenic shock was highest in patients with an acute pulmonary trigger compared with those with chronic lung disease or without lung disease (17% vs. 10% vs. 9%, P = 0.017). In-hospital mortality was also higher in patients with an acute pulmonary trigger than in the other two groups, although not significantly (5.7% vs. 1.5% vs. 4.2%, P = 0.13). Survival analysis demonstrated that patients with an acute pulmonary trigger had the worst long-term outcome (P = 0.002). The presence of an acute pulmonary trigger was independently associated with worse long-term mortality (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% confidence interval 1.33-3.38; P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrates that TTS is related to acute pulmonary triggers in 7% of all TTS patients, which accounts for 21% of patients with physical triggers. The presence of acute pulmonary trigger is associated with a severe in-hospital course and a worse long-term outcome.

Coexistence and outcome of coronary artery disease in Takotsubo syndrome.

AIMS: Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is an acute heart failure syndrome, which shares many features with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Although TTS was initially described with angiographically normal coronary arteries, smaller studies recently indicated a potential coexistence of coronary artery disease (CAD) in TTS patients. This study aimed to determine the coexistence, features, and prognostic role of CAD in a large cohort of patients with TTS. METHODS AND RESULTS: Coronary anatomy and CAD were studied in patients diagnosed with TTS. Inclusion criteria were compliance with the International Takotsubo Diagnostic Criteria for TTS, and availability of original coronary angiographies with ventriculography performed during the acute phase. Exclusion criteria were missing views, poor quality of angiography loops, and angiography without ventriculography. A total of 1016 TTS patients were studied. Of those, 23.0% had obstructive CAD, 41.2% had non-obstructive CAD, and 35.7% had angiographically normal coronary arteries. A total of 47 patients (4.6%) underwent percutaneous coronary intervention, and 3 patients had acute and 8 had chronic coronary artery occlusion concomitant with TTS, respectively. The presence of CAD was associated with increased incidence of shock, ventilation, and death from any cause. After adjusting for confounders, the presence of obstructive CAD was associated with mortality at 30 days. Takotsubo syndrome patients with obstructive CAD were at comparable risk for shock and death and nearly at twice the risk for ventilation compared to an age- and sex-matched ACS cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Coronary artery disease frequently coexists in TTS patients, presents with the whole spectrum of coronary pathology including acute coronary occlusion, and is associated with adverse outcome. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01947621.

Age-Related Variations in Takotsubo Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) occurs predominantly in post-menopausal women but is also found in younger patients. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate age-related differences in TTS. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with TTS and enrolled in the International Takotsubo Registry between January 2011 and February 2017 were included in this analysis and were stratified by age (younger: ≤50 years, middle-age: 51 to 74 years, elderly: ≥75 years). Baseline characteristics, hospital course, as well as short- and long-term mortality were compared among groups. RESULTS: Of 2,098 TTS patients, 242 (11.5%) patients were ≤50 years of age, 1,194 (56.9%) were 51 to 74 years of age, and 662 (31.6%) were ≥75 years of age. Younger patients were more often men (12.4% vs. 10.9% vs. 6.3%; p = 0.002) and had an increased prevalence of acute neurological (16.3% vs. 8.4% vs. 8.8%; p = 0.001) or psychiatric disorders (14.1% vs. 10.3% vs. 5.6%; p < 0.001) compared with middle-aged and elderly TTS patients. Furthermore, younger patients had more often cardiogenic shock (15.3% vs. 9.1% vs. 8.1%; p = 0.004) and had a numerically higher in-hospital mortality (6.6% vs. 3.6% vs. 5.1%; p = 0.07). At multivariable analysis, younger (odds ratio: 1.60; 95% confidence interval: 0.86 to 3.01; p = 0.14) and older age (odds ratio: 1.09; 95% confidence interval: 0.66 to 1.80; p = 0.75) were not independently associated with in-hospital mortality using the middle-aged group as a reference. There were no differences in 60-day mortality rates among groups. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of TTS patients are younger than 50 years of age. TTS is associated with severe complications requiring intensive care, particularly in younger patients.

Impact of aspirin on takotsubo syndrome: a propensity score-based analysis of the InterTAK Registry.

AIMS: The aim of the present study was to investigate the impact of aspirin on prognosis in takotsubo syndrome (TTS). METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients from the International Takotsubo (InterTAK) Registry were categorized into two groups based on aspirin prescription at discharge. A comparison of clinical outcomes between groups was performed using an adjusted analysis with propensity score (PS) stratification; results from the unadjusted analysis were also reported to note the effect of the PS adjustment. Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE: a composite of death, myocardial infarction, TTS recurrence, stroke or transient ischaemic attack) were assessed at 30-day and 5-year follow-up. A total of 1533 TTS patients with known status regarding aspirin prescription at discharge were included. According to the adjusted analysis based on PS stratification, aspirin was not associated with a lower hazard of MACCE at 30-day [hazard ratio (HR) 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.50-3.04, P = 0.64] or 5-year follow-up (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.78-1.58, P = 0.58). These results were confirmed by sensitivity analyses performed with alternative PS-based methods, i.e. covariate adjustment and inverse probability of treatment weighting. CONCLUSION: In the present study, no association was found between aspirin use in TTS patients and a reduced risk of MACCE at 30-day and 5-year follow-up. These findings should be confirmed in adequately powered randomized controlled trials. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01947621.

Intraventricular Thrombus Formation and Embolism in Takotsubo Syndrome: Insights From the International Takotsubo Registry.

OBJECTIVE: Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is characterized by acute left ventricular dysfunction, which can contribute to intraventricular thrombus and embolism. Still, prevalence and clinical impact of thrombus formation and embolic events on outcome of TTS patients remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate clinical features and outcomes of patients with and without intraventricular thrombus or embolism. Additionally, factors associated with thrombus formation or embolism, as well as predictors for mortality, were identified. Approach and Results: TTS patients enrolled in the International Takotsubo Registry at 28 centers in Australia, Europe, and the United States were dichotomized according to the occurrence/absence of intraventricular thrombus or embolism. Patients with intraventricular thrombus or embolism were defined as the ThrombEmb group. Of 1676 TTS patients, 56 (3.3%) patients developed intraventricular thrombus and/or embolism following TTS diagnosis (median time interval, 2.0 days [range, 0-38 days]). Patients in the ThrombEmb group had a different clinical profile including lower left ventricular ejection fraction, higher prevalence of the apical type, elevated levels of troponin and inflammatory markers, and higher prevalence of vascular disease. In a Firth bias-reduced penalized-likelihood logistic regression model apical type, left ventricular ejection fraction ≤30%, previous vascular disease, and a white blood cell count on admission >10×103 cells/µL emerged as independent predictors for thrombus formation or embolism. CONCLUSIONS: Intraventricular thrombus or embolism occur in 3.3% of patients in the acute phase of TTS. A simple risk score including clinical parameters associated with intraventricular thrombus formation or embolism identifies patients at increased risk. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01947621.

Clinical Predictors and Prognostic Impact of Recovery of Wall Motion Abnormalities in Takotsubo Syndrome: Results From the International Takotsubo Registry.

Background Left ventricular (LV) recovery in takotsubo syndrome (TTS) occurs over a wide-ranging interval, varying from hours to weeks. We sought to investigate the clinical predictors and prognostic impact of recovery time for TTS patients. Methods and Results TTS patients from the International Takotsubo Registry were included in this study. Cut-off for early LV recovery was determined to be 10 days after the acute event. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with the absence of early recovery. In-hospital outcomes and 1-year mortality were compared for patients with versus without early recovery. We analyzed 406 patients with comprehensive and serial imaging data regarding time to recovery. Of these, 191 (47.0%) had early LV recovery and 215 (53.0%) demonstrated late LV improvement. Patients without early recovery were more often male (12.6% versus 5.2%; P=0.011) and presented more frequently with typical TTS (76.3% versus 67.0%, P=0.040). Cardiac and inflammatory markers were higher in patients without early recovery than in those with early recovery. Patients without early recovery showed unfavorable 1-year outcome compared with patients with early recovery (P=0.003). On multiple logistic regression, male sex, LV ejection fraction <45%, and acute neurologic disorders were associated with the absence of early recovery. Conclusions TTS patients without early LV recovery have different clinical characteristics and less favorable 1-year outcome compared with patients with early recovery. The factors associated with the absence of early recovery included male sex, reduced LV ejection fraction, and acute neurologic events. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01947621.

Clinical Features and Outcomes of Patients With Malignancy and Takotsubo Syndrome: Observations From the International Takotsubo Registry.

Background Clinical characteristics and outcomes of takotsubo syndrome (TTS) patients with malignancy have not been fully elucidated. This study sought to explore differences in clinical characteristics and to investigate short- and long-term outcomes in TTS patients with or without malignancy. Methods and Results TTS patients were enrolled from the International Takotsubo Registry. The TTS cohort was divided into patients with and without malignancy to investigate differences in clinical characteristics and to assess short- and long-term mortality. A subanalysis was performed comparing long-term mortality between a subset of TTS patients with or without malignancy and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients with or without malignancy. Malignancy was observed in 16.6% of 1604 TTS patients. Patients with malignancy were older and more likely to have physical triggers, but less likely to have emotional triggers compared with those without malignancy. Long-term mortality was higher in patients with malignancy (P<0.001), while short-term outcome was comparable (P=0.17). In a subanalysis, long-term mortality was comparable between TTS patients with malignancies and ACS patients with malignancies (P=0.13). Malignancy emerged as an independent predictor of long-term mortality. Conclusions A substantial number of TTS patients show an association with malignancy. History of malignancy might increase the risk for TTS, and therefore, appropriate screening for malignancy should be considered in these patients. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrial.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01947621.

Cardiac arrest in takotsubo syndrome: results from the InterTAK Registry.

AIMS: We aimed to evaluate the frequency, clinical features, and prognostic implications of cardiac arrest (CA) in takotsubo syndrome (TTS). METHODS AND RESULTS: We reviewed the records of patients with CA and known heart rhythm from the International Takotsubo Registry. The main outcomes were 60-day and 5-year mortality. In addition, predictors of mortality and predictors of CA during the acute TTS phase were assessed. Of 2098 patients, 103 patients with CA and known heart rhythm during CA were included. Compared with patients without CA, CA patients were more likely to be younger, male, and have apical TTS, atrial fibrillation (AF), neurologic comorbidities, physical triggers, and longer corrected QT-interval and lower left ventricular ejection fraction on admission. In all, 57.1% of patients with CA at admission had ventricular fibrillation/tachycardia, while 73.7% of patients with CA in the acute phase had asystole/pulseless electrical activity. Patients with CA showed higher 60-day (40.3% vs. 4.0%, P < 0.001) and 5-year mortality (68.9% vs. 16.7%, P < 0.001) than patients without CA. T-wave inversion and intracranial haemorrhage were independently associated with higher 60-day mortality after CA, whereas female gender was associated with lower 60-day mortality. In the acute phase, CA occurred less frequently in females and more frequently in patients with AF, ST-segment elevation, and higher C-reactive protein on admission. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac arrest is relatively frequent in TTS and is associated with higher short- and long-term mortality. Clinical and electrocardiographic parameters independently predicted mortality after CA.

Long-Term Prognosis of Patients With Takotsubo Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Prognosis of Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) remains controversial due to scarcity of available data. Additionally, the effect of the triggering factors remains elusive. OBJECTIVES: This study compared prognosis between TTS and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients and investigated short- and long-term outcomes in TTS based on different triggers. METHODS: Patients with TTS were enrolled from the International Takotsubo Registry. Long-term mortality of patients with TTS was compared to an age- and sex-matched cohort of patients with ACS. In addition, short- and long-term outcomes were compared between different groups according to triggering conditions. RESULTS: Overall, TTS patients had a comparable long-term mortality risk with ACS patients. Of 1,613 TTS patients, an emotional trigger was detected in 485 patients (30%). Of 630 patients (39%) related to physical triggers, 98 patients (6%) had acute neurologic disorders, while in the other 532 patients (33%), physical activities, medical conditions, or procedures were the triggering conditions. The remaining 498 patients (31%) had no identifiable trigger. TTS patients related to physical stress showed higher mortality rates than ACS patients during long-term follow-up, whereas patients related to emotional stress had better outcomes compared with ACS patients. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, TTS patients had long-term outcomes comparable to age- and sex-matched ACS patients. Also, we demonstrated that TTS can either be benign or a life-threating condition depending on the inciting stress factor. We propose a new classification based on triggers, which can serve as a clinical tool to predict short- and long-term outcomes of TTS. (International Takotsubo Registry [InterTAK Registry]; NCT01947621).

Safety and Feasibility of Transcatheter Interruption of Ruptured Sinus of Valsalva Aneurysm Using the Cocoon Duct Occluder: Immediate Results and Mid-Term Follow-Up.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available regarding safety and feasibility of transcatheter interruption of ruptured sinus of Valsalva aneurysm (RSOVA) using the Cocoon duct occluder (CDO) with immediate and mid-term follow-up result. METHODS: Transcatheter closure (TCC) was successfully done among eight patients, whereas five cases, not amenable to TCC, were referred for surgical correction among 13 consecutive patients of RSOVA at LPS Institute of Cardiology, Kanpur between January 2010 and March 2015. RESULTS: Their mean age was 26.1 ± 6.9 years. Sites of rupture were from right coronary sinus (RCS) to right atrium (RA) in one (12.5%), right ventricle in one (12.5%), and non-coronary sinus to RA in six patients (75%). The defects (9 - 17 mm) were closed by CDO (12/10 - 20/18 mm) with 100% procedural success. During follow-up (9 - 26 months), there was no residual shunt, progression of AR, infective endocarditis or device embolization. CONCLUSION: TCC of RSOVA appears to be a safe and feasible alternative to surgical therapy, with high technical success and excellent mid-term follow-up.

Clinical Features and Outcomes of Takotsubo (Stress) Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: The natural history, management, and outcome of takotsubo (stress) cardiomyopathy are incompletely understood. METHODS: The International Takotsubo Registry, a consortium of 26 centers in Europe and the United States, was established to investigate clinical features, prognostic predictors, and outcome of takotsubo cardiomyopathy. Patients were compared with age- and sex-matched patients who had an acute coronary syndrome. RESULTS: Of 1750 patients with takotsubo cardiomyopathy, 89.8% were women (mean age, 66.8 years). Emotional triggers were not as common as physical triggers (27.7% vs. 36.0%), and 28.5% of patients had no evident trigger. Among patients with takotsubo cardiomyopathy, as compared with an acute coronary syndrome, rates of neurologic or psychiatric disorders were higher (55.8% vs. 25.7%) and the mean left ventricular ejection fraction was markedly lower (40.7±11.2% vs. 51.5±12.3%) (P<0.001 for both comparisons). Rates of severe in-hospital complications including shock and death were similar in the two groups (P=0.93). Physical triggers, acute neurologic or psychiatric diseases, high troponin levels, and a low ejection fraction on admission were independent predictors for in-hospital complications. During long-term follow-up, the rate of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events was 9.9% per patient-year, and the rate of death was 5.6% per patient-year. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with takotsubo cardiomyopathy had a higher prevalence of neurologic or psychiatric disorders than did those with an acute coronary syndrome. This condition represents an acute heart failure syndrome with substantial morbidity and mortality. (Funded by the Mach-Gaensslen Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01947621.).

New anticoagulants in ischemic heart disease.

Historically, the use of oral anticoagulants in acute coronary syndromes (ACS) has been controversial. Several prospective trials have shown that vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), such as warfarin or dicoumarol, reduce recurrent ischemic events but with a concomitant increased risk of bleeding. Other trial data have shown a neutral or net negative effect. Regardless, these prior observations are not readily transposable to contemporary practice where many ACS patients receive dual antiplatelet therapy and undergo cardiac catheterization and percutaneous coronary intervention. Because recurrent ischemic events continue to occur following index ACS presentation despite evidence-based practice and knowing the limitations of current oral anticoagulation strategies with VKA, the endeavor continues to find a more effective anticoagulant with predictable, dose-proportional pharmacokinetics, and minimal interactions with food and drugs. We review novel, emerging classes of anticoagulants that focus on specific targets in the coagulation cascade with the aim of improving long-term net clinical outcomes.

Low-permeability Gore Excluder device versus the original in abdominal aortic aneurysm size regression.

We sought to compare the efficacy of a low-permeability version of the Gore Excluder™ device with that of the original device. We used volumetric analysis and maximum transverse diameter measurements to examine abdominal aortic aneurysm size regression after endovascular aneurysm repair.From November 2002 through April 2007, 101 patients (82% men; mean age, 71.5 ± 8.9 yr) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair with the Excluder stent-graft: 34 with the original device, and 67 with the low-permeability device. Only patients without endoleak and with preprocedural and 1- and 2-year follow-up computed tomographic scans were included. Eight patients with type II endoleak and 2 with type I endoleak were excluded. Maximum abdominal aortic aneurysm diameter and volume were measured before endovascular aneurysm repair and annually thereafter. Postprocessing, multiplanar computed tomography, and 3-dimensional reconstructions were compared with baseline measurements. Diameter and volume changes that were greater than 5 mm or that exceeded 10% were considered significant.At 12 months, the mean maximum transverse diameter had decreased by -0.16 ± 12.1 mm in recipients of the original device and by -4.8 ± 5.9 mm in recipients of the low-permeability device (P = NS). In addition, mean reduction in volume had changed by -17 ± 16 mL in original-device recipients and by -36.1 ± 37.9 mL in low-permeability device recipients (P < 0.01).One-year follow-up revealed that the low-permeability stent-graft resulted in a greater decrease in abdominal aortic aneurysm volume than did the original stent-graft.