COVID-19 susceptibility and severity risks in a cross-sectional survey of over 500 000 US adults.

OBJECTIVES: The enormous toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the urgency of collecting and analysing population-scale datasets in real time to monitor and better understand the evolving pandemic. The objectives of this study were to examine the relationship of risk factors to COVID-19 susceptibility and severity and to develop risk models to accurately predict COVID-19 outcomes using rapidly obtained self-reported data. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study. SETTING: AncestryDNA customers in the USA who consented to research. PARTICIPANTS: The AncestryDNA COVID-19 Study collected self-reported survey data on symptoms, outcomes, risk factors and exposures for over 563 000 adult individuals in the USA in just under 4 months, including over 4700 COVID-19 cases as measured by a self-reported positive test. RESULTS: We replicated previously reported associations between several risk factors and COVID-19 susceptibility and severity outcomes, and additionally found that differences in known exposures accounted for many of the susceptibility associations. A notable exception was elevated susceptibility for men even after adjusting for known exposures and age (adjusted OR=1.36, 95% CI=1.19 to 1.55). We also demonstrated that self-reported data can be used to build accurate risk models to predict individualised COVID-19 susceptibility (area under the curve (AUC)=0.84) and severity outcomes including hospitalisation and critical illness (AUC=0.87 and 0.90, respectively). The risk models achieved robust discriminative performance across different age, sex and genetic ancestry groups within the study. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the value of self-reported epidemiological data to rapidly provide public health insights into the evolving COVID-19 pandemic.

Expanded COVID-19 phenotype definitions reveal distinct patterns of genetic association and protective effects.

Multiple COVID-19 genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified reproducible genetic associations indicating that there is a genetic component to susceptibility and severity risk. To complement these studies, we collected deep coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) phenotype data from a survey of 736,723 AncestryDNA research participants. With these data, we defined eight phenotypes related to COVID-19 outcomes: four phenotypes that align with previously studied COVID-19 definitions and four 'expanded' phenotypes that focus on susceptibility given exposure, mild clinical manifestations and an aggregate score of symptom severity. We performed a replication analysis of 12 previously reported COVID-19 genetic associations with all eight phenotypes in a trans-ancestry meta-analysis of AncestryDNA research participants. In this analysis, we show distinct patterns of association at the 12 loci with the eight outcomes that we assessed. We also performed a genome-wide discovery analysis of all eight phenotypes, which did not yield new genome-wide significant loci but did suggest that three of the four 'expanded' COVID-19 phenotypes have enhanced power to capture protective genetic associations relative to the previously studied phenotypes. Thus, we conclude that continued large-scale ascertainment of deep COVID-19 phenotype data would likely represent a boon for COVID-19 therapeutic target identification.

Variability in Cytogenetic Testing for Multiple Myeloma: A Comprehensive Analysis From Across the United States.

PURPOSE: Multiple myeloma (MM) treatment has changed tremendously, with significant improvement in patient out-comes. One group with a suboptimal benefit is patients with high-risk cytogenetics, as tested by conventional karyotyping or fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Methodology for these tests has been published, but not necessarily standardized. METHODS: We address variability in the testing and reporting methodology for MM cytogenetics in the United States using the ongoing African American Multiple Myeloma Study (AAMMS). We evaluated clinical and cytogenetic data from 1,221 patients (1,161 with conventional karyotyping and 976 with FISH) tested between 1998 and 2016 across 58 laboratories nationwide. RESULTS: Interlab and intralab variability was noted for the number of cells analyzed for karyotyping, with a significantly higher number of cells analyzed in patients in whom cytogenetics were normal (P 5.0025). For FISH testing, CD138-positive cell enrichment was used in 29.7% of patients and no enrichment in 50% of patients, whereas the remainder had unknown status. A significantly smaller number of cells was analyzed for patients in which CD138 cell enrichment was used compared with those without such enrichment (median, 50 v 200; P, .0001). A median of 7 loci probes (range, 1-16) were used for FISH testing across all laboratories, with variability in the loci probed even within a given laboratory. Chromosome 13-related abnormalities were the most frequently tested abnormality (n5956; 97.9%), and t(14;16) was the least frequently tested abnormality (n 5 119; 12.2%). CONCLUSIONS: We report significant variability in cytogenetic testing across the United States for MM, potentially leading to variability in risk stratification, with possible clinical implications and personalized treatment approaches.

A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of multiple myeloma among men and women of African ancestry.

Persons of African ancestry (AA) have a twofold higher risk for multiple myeloma (MM) compared with persons of European ancestry (EA). Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) support a genetic contribution to MM etiology in individuals of EA. Little is known about genetic risk factors for MM in individuals of AA. We performed a meta-analysis of 2 GWASs of MM in 1813 cases and 8871 controls and conducted an admixture mapping scan to identify risk alleles. We fine-mapped the 23 known susceptibility loci to find markers that could better capture MM risk in individuals of AA and constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) to assess the aggregated effect of known MM risk alleles. In GWAS meta-analysis, we identified 2 suggestive novel loci located at 9p24.3 and 9p13.1 at P < 1 × 10-6; however, no genome-wide significant association was noted. In admixture mapping, we observed a genome-wide significant inverse association between local AA at 2p24.1-23.1 and MM risk in AA individuals. Of the 23 known EA risk variants, 20 showed directional consistency, and 9 replicated at P < .05 in AA individuals. In 8 regions, we identified markers that better capture MM risk in persons with AA. AA individuals with a PRS in the top 10% had a 1.82-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.56-2.11) increased MM risk compared with those with average risk (25%-75%). The strongest functional association was between the risk allele for variant rs56219066 at 5q15 and lower ELL2 expression (P = 5.1 × 10-12). Our study shows that common genetic variation contributes to MM risk in individuals with AA.

A Prospective Analysis of Genetic Variants Associated with Human Lifespan.

We present a massive investigation into the genetic basis of human lifespan. Beginning with a genome-wide association (GWA) study using a de-identified snapshot of the unique AncestryDNA database - more than 300,000 genotyped individuals linked to pedigrees of over 400,000,000 people - we mapped six genome-wide significant loci associated with parental lifespan. We compared these results to a GWA analysis of the traditional lifespan proxy trait, age, and found only one locus, APOE, to be associated with both age and lifespan. By combining the AncestryDNA results with those of an independent UK Biobank dataset, we conducted a meta-analysis of more than 650,000 individuals and identified fifteen parental lifespan-associated loci. Beyond just those significant loci, our genome-wide set of polymorphisms accounts for up to 8% of the variance in human lifespan; this value represents a large fraction of the heritability estimated from phenotypic correlations between relatives.

Estimates of the Heritability of Human Longevity Are Substantially Inflated due to Assortative Mating.

Human life span is a phenotype that integrates many aspects of health and environment into a single ultimate quantity: the elapsed time between birth and death. Though it is widely believed that long life runs in families for genetic reasons, estimates of life span "heritability" are consistently low (∼15-30%). Here, we used pedigree data from Ancestry public trees, including hundreds of millions of historical persons, to estimate the heritability of human longevity. Although "nominal heritability" estimates based on correlations among genetic relatives agreed with prior literature, the majority of that correlation was also captured by correlations among nongenetic (in-law) relatives, suggestive of highly assortative mating around life span-influencing factors (genetic and/or environmental). We used structural equation modeling to account for assortative mating, and concluded that the true heritability of human longevity for birth cohorts across the 1800s and early 1900s was well below 10%, and that it has been generally overestimated due to the effect of assortative mating.

Evaluation of 71 Coronary Artery Disease Risk Variants in a Multiethnic Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Previous studies have identified numerous common CHD susceptibility loci, with the vast majority identified in populations of European ancestry. How well these findings transfer to other racial/ethnic populations remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined the generalizability of the associations with 71 known CHD loci in African American, Latino and Japanese men and women in the Multiethnic Cohort (6,035 cases and 11,251 controls). In the combined multiethnic sample, 78% of the loci demonstrated odds ratios that were directionally consistent with those previously reported (p = 2 × 10-6), with this fraction ranging from 59% in Japanese to 70% in Latinos. The number of nominally significant associations across all susceptibility regions ranged from only 1 in Japanese to 11 in African Americans with the most statistically significant association observed through locus fine-mapping noted for rs3832016 (OR = 1.16, p = 2.5×10-5) in the SORT1 region on chromosome 1p13. Lastly, we examined the cumulative predictive effect of CHD SNPs across populations with improved power by creating genetic risk scores (GRSs) that summarize an individual's aggregated exposure to risk variants. We found the GRSs to be significantly associated with risk in African Americans (OR = 1.03 per allele; p = 4.1×10-5) and Latinos (OR = 1.03; p = 2.2 × 10-8), but not in Japanese (OR = 1.01; p = 0.11). CONCLUSIONS: While a sizable fraction of the known CHD loci appear to generalize in these populations, larger fine-mapping studies will be needed to localize the functional alleles and better define their contribution to CHD risk in these populations.

Clustering of 770,000 genomes reveals post-colonial population structure of North America.

Despite strides in characterizing human history from genetic polymorphism data, progress in identifying genetic signatures of recent demography has been limited. Here we identify very recent fine-scale population structure in North America from a network of over 500 million genetic (identity-by-descent, IBD) connections among 770,000 genotyped individuals of US origin. We detect densely connected clusters within the network and annotate these clusters using a database of over 20 million genealogical records. Recent population patterns captured by IBD clustering include immigrants such as Scandinavians and French Canadians; groups with continental admixture such as Puerto Ricans; settlers such as the Amish and Appalachians who experienced geographic or cultural isolation; and broad historical trends, including reduced north-south gene flow. Our results yield a detailed historical portrait of North America after European settlement and support substantial genetic heterogeneity in the United States beyond that uncovered by previous studies.

A Meta-analysis of Multiple Myeloma Risk Regions in African and European Ancestry Populations Identifies Putatively Functional Loci.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in European populations have identified genetic risk variants associated with multiple myeloma. METHODS: We performed association testing of common variation in eight regions in 1,318 patients with multiple myeloma and 1,480 controls of European ancestry and 1,305 patients with multiple myeloma and 7,078 controls of African ancestry and conducted a meta-analysis to localize the signals, with epigenetic annotation used to predict functionality. RESULTS: We found that variants in 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1 were statistically significantly (P < 0.05) associated with multiple myeloma risk in persons of African ancestry and persons of European ancestry, and the variant in 3p22.1 was associated in European ancestry only. In a combined African ancestry-European ancestry meta-analysis, variation in five regions (2p23.3, 3p22.1, 7p15.3, 17p11.2, 22q13.1) was statistically significantly associated with multiple myeloma risk. In 3p22.1, the correlated variants clustered within the gene body of ULK4 Correlated variants in 7p15.3 clustered around an enhancer at the 3' end of the CDCA7L transcription termination site. A missense variant at 17p11.2 (rs34562254, Pro251Leu, OR, 1.32; P = 2.93 × 10-7) in TNFRSF13B encodes a lymphocyte-specific protein in the TNF receptor family that interacts with the NF-κB pathway. SNPs correlated with the index signal in 22q13.1 cluster around the promoter and enhancer regions of CBX7 CONCLUSIONS: We found that reported multiple myeloma susceptibility regions contain risk variants important across populations, supporting the use of multiple racial/ethnic groups with different underlying genetic architecture to enhance the localization and identification of putatively functional alleles. IMPACT: A subset of reported risk loci for multiple myeloma has consistent effects across populations and is likely to be functional. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(12); 1609-18. ©2016 AACR.

Prostate Cancer Susceptibility in Men of African Ancestry at 8q24.

The 8q24 region harbors multiple risk variants for distinct cancers, including >8 for prostate cancer. In this study, we conducted fine mapping of the 8q24 risk region (127.8-128.8Mb) in search of novel associations with common and rare variation in 4853 prostate cancer case patients and 4678 control subjects of African ancestry. All statistical tests were two-sided. We identified three independent associations at P values of less than 5.00×10(-8), all of which were replicated in studies from Ghana and Uganda (combined sample = 5869 case patients, 5615 control subjects; rs114798100: risk allele frequency [RAF] = 0.04, per-allele odds ratio [OR] = 2.31, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.04 to 2.61, P = 2.38×10(-40); rs72725879: RAF = 0.33, OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.30 to 1.45, P = 3.04×10(-27); and rs111906932: RAF = 0.03, OR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.53 to 2.08, P = 1.39×10(-13)). Risk variants rs114798100 and rs111906923 are only found in men of African ancestry, with rs111906923 representing a novel association signal. The three variants are located within or near a number of prostate cancer-associated long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs), including PRNCR1, PCAT1, and PCAT2. These findings highlight ancestry-specific risk variation and implicate prostate-specific lncRNAs at the 8q24 prostate cancer susceptibility region.

Whole-exome sequencing of over 4100 men of African ancestry and prostate cancer risk.

Prostate cancer is the most common non-skin cancer in males, with a ∼1.5-2-fold higher incidence in African American men when compared with whites. Epidemiologic evidence supports a large heritable contribution to prostate cancer, with over 100 susceptibility loci identified to date that can explain ∼33% of the familial risk. To explore the contribution of both rare and common variation in coding regions to prostate cancer risk, we sequenced the exomes of 2165 prostate cancer cases and 2034 controls of African ancestry at a mean coverage of 10.1×. We identified 395 220 coding variants down to 0.05% frequency [57% non-synonymous (NS), 42% synonymous and 1% gain or loss of stop codon or splice site variant] in 16 751 genes with the strongest associations observed in SPARCL1 on 4q22.1 (rs13051, Ala49Asp, OR = 0.78, P = 1.8 × 10(-6)) and PTPRR on 12q15 (rs73341069, Val239Ile, OR = 1.62, P = 2.5 × 10(-5)). In gene-level testing, the two most significant genes were C1orf100 (P = 2.2 × 10(-4)) and GORAB (P = 2.3 × 10(-4)). We did not observe exome-wide significant associations (after correcting for multiple hypothesis testing) in single variant or gene-level testing in the overall case-control or case-case analyses of disease aggressiveness. In this first whole-exome sequencing study of prostate cancer, our findings do not provide strong support for the hypothesis that NS coding variants down to 0.5-1.0% frequency have large effects on prostate cancer risk in men of African ancestry. Higher-coverage sequencing efforts in larger samples will be needed to study rarer variants with smaller effect sizes associated with prostate cancer risk.

The contribution of rare variation to prostate cancer heritability.

We report targeted sequencing of 63 known prostate cancer risk regions in a multi-ancestry study of 9,237 men and use the data to explore the contribution of low-frequency variation to disease risk. We show that SNPs with minor allele frequencies (MAFs) of 0.1-1% explain a substantial fraction of prostate cancer risk in men of African ancestry. We estimate that these SNPs account for 0.12 (standard error (s.e.) = 0.05) of variance in risk (∼42% of the variance contributed by SNPs with MAF of 0.1-50%). This contribution is much larger than the fraction of neutral variation due to SNPs in this class, implying that natural selection has driven down the frequency of many prostate cancer risk alleles; we estimate the coupling between selection and allelic effects at 0.48 (95% confidence interval [0.19, 0.78]) under the Eyre-Walker model. Our results indicate that rare variants make a disproportionate contribution to genetic risk for prostate cancer and suggest the possibility that rare variants may also have an outsize effect on other common traits.

Integration of multiethnic fine-mapping and genomic annotation to prioritize candidate functional SNPs at prostate cancer susceptibility regions.

Interpretation of biological mechanisms underlying genetic risk associations for prostate cancer is complicated by the relatively large number of risk variants (n = 100) and the thousands of surrogate SNPs in linkage disequilibrium. Here, we combined three distinct approaches: multiethnic fine-mapping, putative functional annotation (based upon epigenetic data and genome-encoded features), and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analyses, in an attempt to reduce this complexity. We examined 67 risk regions using genotyping and imputation-based fine-mapping in populations of European (cases/controls: 8600/6946), African (cases/controls: 5327/5136), Japanese (cases/controls: 2563/4391) and Latino (cases/controls: 1034/1046) ancestry. Markers at 55 regions passed a region-specific significance threshold (P-value cutoff range: 3.9 × 10(-4)-5.6 × 10(-3)) and in 30 regions we identified markers that were more significantly associated with risk than the previously reported variants in the multiethnic sample. Novel secondary signals (P < 5.0 × 10(-6)) were also detected in two regions (rs13062436/3q21 and rs17181170/3p12). Among 666 variants in the 55 regions with P-values within one order of magnitude of the most-associated marker, 193 variants (29%) in 48 regions overlapped with epigenetic or other putative functional marks. In 11 of the 55 regions, cis-eQTLs were detected with nearby genes. For 12 of the 55 regions (22%), the most significant region-specific, prostate-cancer associated variant represented the strongest candidate functional variant based on our annotations; the number of regions increased to 20 (36%) and 27 (49%) when examining the 2 and 3 most significantly associated variants in each region, respectively. These results have prioritized subsets of candidate variants for downstream functional evaluation.

Generalizability of established prostate cancer risk variants in men of African ancestry.

Genome-wide association studies have identified more than 80 risk variants for prostate cancer, mainly in European or Asian populations. The generalizability of these variants in other racial/ethnic populations needs to be understood before the loci can be used widely in risk modeling. In our study, we examined 82 previously reported risk variants in 4,853 prostate cancer cases and 4,678 controls of African ancestry. We performed association testing for each variant using logistic regression adjusted for age, study and global ancestry. Of the 82 known risk variants, 68 (83%) had effects that were directionally consistent in their association with prostate cancer risk and 30 (37%) were significantly associated with risk at p < 0.05, with the most statistically significant variants being rs116041037 (p = 3.7 × 10(-26) ) and rs6983561 (p = 1.1 × 10(-16) ) at 8q24, as well as rs7210100 (p = 5.4 × 10(-8) ) at 17q21. By exploring each locus in search of better markers, the number of variants that captured risk in men of African ancestry (p < 0.05) increased from 30 (37%) to 44 (54%). An aggregate score comprised of these 44 markers was strongly associated with prostate cancer risk [per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.12, p = 7.3 × 10(-98) ]. In summary, the consistent directions of effects for the vast majority of variants in men of African ancestry indicate common functional alleles that are shared across populations. Further exploration of these susceptibility loci is needed to identify the underlying biologically relevant variants to improve prostate cancer risk modeling in populations of African ancestry.

A comprehensive examination of breast cancer risk loci in African American women.

Genome-wide association studies have identified 73 breast cancer risk variants mainly in European populations. Given considerable differences in linkage disequilibrium structure between populations of European and African ancestry, the known risk variants may not be informative for risk in African ancestry populations. In a previous fine-mapping investigation of 19 breast cancer loci, we were able to identify SNPs in four regions that better captured risk associations in African American women. In this study of breast cancer in African American women (3016 cases, 2745 controls), we tested an additional 54 novel breast cancer risk variants. Thirty-eight variants (70%) were found to have an association with breast cancer in the same direction as previously reported, with eight (15%) replicating at P < 0.05. Through fine-mapping, in three regions (1q32, 3p24, 10q25), we identified variants that better captured associations with overall breast cancer or estrogen receptor positive disease. We also observed suggestive associations with variants (at P < 5 × 10(-6)) in three separate regions (6q25, 14q13, 22q12) that may represent novel risk variants. Directional consistency of association observed for ∼65-70% of currently known genetic variants for breast cancer in women of African ancestry implies a shared functional common variant at most loci. To validate and enhance the spectrum of alleles that define associations at the known breast cancer risk loci, as well as genome-wide, will require even larger collaborative efforts in women of African ancestry.

A genome-wide association study of prostate cancer in West African men.

Age-adjusted mortality rates for prostate cancer are higher for African-American men compared with those of European ancestry. Recent data suggest that West African men also have elevated risk for prostate cancer relative to European men. Genetic susceptibility to prostate cancer could account for part of this difference. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of prostate cancer in West African men in the Ghana Prostate Study. Association testing was performed using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age and genetic ancestry for 474 prostate cancer cases and 458 population-based controls on the Illumina HumanOmni-5 Quad BeadChip. The most promising association was at 10p14 within an intron of a long non-coding RNA (lncRNA RP11-543F8.2) 360 kb centromeric of GATA3 (p = 1.29E-7). In sub-analyses, SNPs at 5q31.3 were associated with high Gleason score (≥7) cancers, the strongest of which was a missense SNP in PCDHA1 (rs34575154, p = 3.66E-8), and SNPs at Xq28 (rs985081, p = 8.66E-9) and 6q21 (rs2185710, p = 5.95E-8) were associated with low Gleason score (<7) cancers. We sought to validate our findings in silico in the African Ancestry Prostate Cancer GWAS Consortium, but only one SNP, at 10p14, replicated at p < 0.05. Of the 90 prostate cancer loci reported from studies of men of European, Asian or African-American ancestry, we were able to test 81 in the Ghana Prostate Study, and 10 of these replicated at p < 0.05. Further genetic studies of prostate cancer in West African men are needed to confirm our promising susceptibility loci.

Childhood infections and adult height in monozygotic twin pairs.

Adult height is determined by genetics and childhood nutrition, but childhood infections may also play a role. Monozygotic twins are genetically matched and offer an advantage when identifying environmental determinants. In 2005-2007, we examined the association of childhood infections with adult height in 140 height-discordant monozygotic twin pairs from the California Twin Program. To obtain information on childhood infections and growth, we interviewed the mothers of monozygotic twins who differed in self-reported adult height by at least 1-inch (2.5 cm). Within-pair differences in the relative frequency of childhood infections were highly correlated, especially within age groups. A conditional logistic regression analysis demonstrated that more reported episodes of febrile illness occurred in the twin with shorter stature (odds ratio = 2.00, 95% confidence interval: 1.18, 3.40). The association was strongest for differences in the relative frequency of infection during the toddler years (ages 1-5: odds ratio = 3.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.47, 7.59) and was similar when restricted to twin pairs of equal birth length. The association was not explained by differential nutritional status. Measures of childhood infection were associated with height difference in monozygotic twin pairs, independent of genome, birth length, and available measures of diet.