Geographic shifts in climatically suitable areas and loss of genetic variability in Dipteryx alata ("Baru" Tree; Fabaceae).

Many species are expected to suffer strong shifts in their geographic ranges due to climate changes in the next 50 years, with severe consequences for biodiversity patterns and population structure. We used here an ensemble forecast approach for obtaining species' range in which multiple species distribution models and climatic models were combined to model loss of genetic variability in Baru, Dipteryx alata (Fabaceae), an economically important Neotropical tree native to the Cerrado of Brazil. We estimated a series of genetic parameters (number of alleles per locus, expected heterozygosity under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and mutation-drift equilibrium) for this species based on eight microsatellite loci. We then recalculated these parameters assuming that local populations in areas of low future environmental suitability will go extinct. All genetic parameters remained approximately constant up to a 50% threshold of climatic suitability in the future; after this critical threshold there is an abrupt reduction in all parameters, although the magnitude of shift is only about 10% of current values, on average. Thus, despite the shifts in geographic range and climatically suitable areas towards southeastern Brazil, our analyses do not predict a strong loss of genetic diversity in D. alata because of the broad tolerance of this species, which ensures large future ranges, contrasting with other Cerrado species that have been analyzed in a similar manner.

Autoregressive modelling of species richness in the Brazilian Cerrado.

Spatial autocorrelation is the lack of independence between pairs of observations at given distances within a geographical space, a phenomenon commonly found in ecological data. Taking into account spatial autocorrelation when evaluating problems in geographical ecology, including gradients in species richness, is important to describe both the spatial structure in data and to correct the bias in Type I errors of standard statistical analyses. However, to effectively solve these problems it is necessary to establish the best way to incorporate the spatial structure to be used in the models. In this paper, we applied autoregressive models based on different types of connections and distances between 181 cells covering the Cerrado region of Central Brazil to study the spatial variation in mammal and bird species richness across the biome. Spatial structure was stronger for birds than for mammals, with R(2) values ranging from 0.77 to 0.94 for mammals and from 0.77 to 0.97 for birds, for models based on different definitions of spatial structures. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best autoregressive model was obtained by using the rook connection. In general, these results furnish guidelines for future modelling of species richness patterns in relation to environmental predictors and other variables expressing human occupation in the biome.

Autoregressive modelling of species richness in the Brazilian Cerrado / Modelagem por auto-regressão da riqueza de espécies no Cerrado Brasileiro

Spatial autocorrelation is the lack of independence between pairs of observations at given distances within a geographical space, a phenomenon commonly found in ecological data. Taking into account spatial autocorrelation when evaluating problems in geographical ecology, including gradients in species richness, is important to describe both the spatial structure in data and to correct the bias in Type I errors of standard statistical analyses. However, to effectively solve these problems it is necessary to establish the best way to incorporate the spatial structure to be used in the models. In this paper, we applied autoregressive models based on different types of connections and distances between 181 cells covering the Cerrado region of Central Brazil to study the spatial variation in mammal and bird species richness across the biome. Spatial structure was stronger for birds than for mammals, with R² values ranging from 0.77 to 0.94 for mammals and from 0.77 to 0.97 for birds, for models based on different definitions of spatial structures. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best autoregressive model was obtained by using the rook connection. In general, these results furnish guidelines for future modelling of species richness patterns in relation to environmental predictors and other variables expressing human occupation in the biome.

Autocorrelação espacial é definida como a falta de independência entre pares de observações a uma dada distância geográfica e é um fenômeno muito freqüente em dados ecológicos. É importante levar em consideração os efeitos de autocorrelação espacial em ecologia geográfica, tanto para realizar uma descrição mais detalhada dos dados quanto para corrigir estimativas enviesadas do erro Tipo I das análises estatísticas convencionais. Entretanto, para resolver efetivamente esses problemas, é preciso avaliar a melhor forma de incorporar estruturas espaciais nos modelos. Neste estudo, modelos autoregressivos, baseados em diferentes tipos de conexões e distâncias entre 181 células de uma rede cobrindo a região do Cerrado brasileiro, foram ajustados para avaliar a variação espacial de riqueza de mamíferos e aves dentro do bioma. A estrutura espacial foi ligeiramente mais forte para aves do que para mamíferos, com valores de R² variando entre 0,77 e 0,94 para mamíferos e 0,77 e 0,97 para aves, em modelos baseados em diferentes formas de conexão espacial. Segundo o Critério de Informação Akaike (AIC), o modelo autoregressivo melhor ajustado foi obtido através da conexão "em torre". Em geral, esses resultados fornecem diretrizes para futuras modelagens dos padrões de riqueza de espécies que estão associados a preditores ambientais e/ou a variáveis que expressam a ocupação humana no Cerrado.

Worldwide patterns in species richness of Falconiformes: analytical null models, geometric constraints, and the mid-domain effect.

Recently, the hypothesis that the geographic distribution of species could be influenced by the shape of the domain edges, the so-called Mid-Domain Effect (MDE), has been included as one of the five credible hypotheses for explaining spatial gradients in species richness, despite all the unsuccessful current attempts to prove empirically the validity of MDE. We used data on spatial worldwide distributions of Falconiformes to evaluate the validity of MDE assumptions, incorporated into two different sorts of null models at a global level and separately across five domains/landmasses. Species richness values predicted by the null models of the MDE and those values predicted by Net Primary Productivity, a surrogate variable expressing the effect of available energy, were compared in order to evaluate which hypothesis better predicts the observed values. Our tests showed that MDE continues to lack empirical support, regardless of its current acceptability, and so, does not deserve to be classified as one possible explanation of species richness gradients.

Worldwide patterns in species richness of falconiformes: analytical null models, geometric constraints, and the mid-domain effect

Recentemente, a hipótese de que a distribuição geográfica das espécies poderia ser influenciada pela forma das bordas continentais, conhecida como Efeito do Domínio Médio (EDM), foi incluída como uma das cinco hipóteses prováveis para explicar os gradientes espaciais de riqueza de espécies, apesar das últimas tentativas infrutíferas de prová-la empiricamente. Usamos os dados globais de distribuição espacial dos Falconiformes para avaliar os pressupostos do EDM, por meio de dois tipos de modelos nulos, em uma análise global e, também, separadamente por cinco domínios/continentes. Os valores de riqueza de espécies preditos pelos modelos nulos do EDM e pela produtividade primária líquida, uma variável substitutiva para expressar o efeito da energia disponível, foram comparados para avaliar qual hipótese prediz melhor os valores observados. Nossos testes mostraram que o EDM permanece sem suporte empírico, apesar da corrente notoriedade, não merecendo, portanto, ser classificado como uma das explicaçäes possíveis para os gradientes de riqueza de espécies.