Predicting regional fluoride concentrations at public and domestic supply depths in basin-fill aquifers of the western United States using a random forest model.

A random forest regression (RFR) model was applied to over 12,000 wells with measured fluoride (F) concentrations in untreated groundwater to predict F concentrations at depths used for domestic and public supply in basin-fill aquifers of the western United States. The model relied on twenty-two regional-scale environmental and surficial predictor variables selected to represent factors known to control F concentrations in groundwater. The testing model fit R2 and RMSE were 0.52 and 0.78 mg/L. Comparisons of measured to predicted proportions of four F-concentrations categories (<0.7 mg/L, 0.7-2 mg/L, >2 mg/L - 4 mg/L, and > 4 mg/L) indicate that the model performed well at making regional-scale predictions. Differences between measured and predicted proportions indicate underprediction of measured F at values by between 4 and 20 mg/L, representing less than 1% of the regional scale predicted values. These residuals most often map to geographic regions where local-scale processes including evaporative discharge in closed basins or intermittent streams concentrate fluoride in shallow groundwater. Despite this, the RFR model provides spatially continuous F predictions across the basin-fill aquifers where discrete samples are missing. Further, the predictions capture documented areas that exceed the F maximum contaminant level for drinking water of 4 mg/L and areas that are below the oral-health benchmark of 0.7 mg/L. These predictions can be used to estimate fluoride concentrations in unmonitored areas and to aid in identifying geographic areas that may require further investigation at localized scales.

Machine-Learning Predictions of High Arsenic and High Manganese at Drinking Water Depths of the Glacial Aquifer System, Northern Continental United States.

Globally, over 200 million people are chronically exposed to arsenic (As) and/or manganese (Mn) from drinking water. We used machine-learning (ML) boosted regression tree (BRT) models to predict high As (>10 µg/L) and Mn (>300 µg/L) in groundwater from the glacial aquifer system (GLAC), which spans 25 states in the northern United States and provides drinking water to 30 million people. Our BRT models' predictor variables (PVs) included recently developed three-dimensional estimates of a suite of groundwater age metrics, redox condition, and pH. We also demonstrated a successful approach to significantly improve ML prediction sensitivity for imbalanced data sets (small percentage of high values). We present predictions of the probability of high As and high Mn concentrations in groundwater, and uncertainty, at two nonuniform depth surfaces that represent moving median depths of GLAC domestic and public supply wells within the three-dimensional model domain. Predicted high likelihood of anoxic condition (high iron or low dissolved oxygen), predicted pH, relative well depth, several modeled groundwater age metrics, and hydrologic position were all PVs retained in both models; however, PV importance and influence differed between the models. High-As and high-Mn groundwater was predicted with high likelihood over large portions of the central part of the GLAC.

Machine Learning Predictions of pH in the Glacial Aquifer System, Northern USA.

A boosted regression tree model was developed to predict pH conditions in three dimensions throughout the glacial aquifer system of the contiguous United States using pH measurements in samples from 18,386 wells and predictor variables that represent aspects of the hydrogeologic setting. Model results indicate that the carbonate content of soils and aquifer materials strongly controls pH and, when coupled with long flowpaths, results in the most alkaline conditions. Conversely, in areas where glacial sediments are thin and carbonate-poor, pH conditions remain acidic. At depths typical of drinking-water supplies, predicted pH >7.5-which is associated with arsenic mobilization-occurs more frequently than predicted pH <6-which is associated with water corrosivity and the mobilization of other trace elements. A novel aspect of this model was the inclusion of numerically based estimates of groundwater flow characteristics (age and flowpath length) as predictor variables. The sensitivity of pH predictions to these variables was consistent with hydrologic understanding of groundwater flow systems and the geochemical evolution of groundwater quality. The model was not developed to provide precise estimates of pH at any given location. Rather, it can be used to more generally identify areas where contaminants may be mobilized into groundwater and where corrosivity issues may be of concern to prioritize areas for future groundwater monitoring.

IsoFishR: An application for reproducible data reduction and analysis of strontium isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr) obtained via laser-ablation MC-ICP-MS.

The IsoFishR application is a data reduction and analysis tool for laser-ablation strontium isotope data, following common best practices and providing reliable and reproducible results. Strontium isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr) are a powerful geochemical tracer commonly applied in a wide range of scientific fields and laser-ablation inductively coupled mass spectrometry is considered the method of choice to obtain spatially resolved 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios from a variety of sample materials. However, data reduction and analyses methods are variable between different research groups and research communities limiting reproducibility between studies. IsoFishR provides a platform to standardize these methods and can be used for both spot and time-resolved line transects. Furthermore, it provides advanced data analysis tools and filters for outlier removal, noise reduction, and visualization of time resolved data. The application can be downloaded from GitHub (https://github.com/MalteWillmes/IsoFishR) and the source code is available, encouraging future development and evolution of this software.

A hybrid machine learning model to predict and visualize nitrate concentration throughout the Central Valley aquifer, California, USA.

Intense demand for water in the Central Valley of California and related increases in groundwater nitrate concentration threaten the sustainability of the groundwater resource. To assess contamination risk in the region, we developed a hybrid, non-linear, machine learning model within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500m below ground surface. A database of 145 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and landscape-scale nitrogen mass balances, historical and current land use, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The boosted regression tree (BRT) method was used to screen and rank variables to predict nitrate concentration at the depths of domestic and public well supplies. The novel approach included as predictor variables outputs from existing physically based models of the Central Valley. The top five most important predictor variables included two oxidation/reduction variables (probability of manganese concentration to exceed 50ppb and probability of dissolved oxygen concentration to be below 0.5ppm), field-scale adjusted unsaturated zone nitrogen input for the 1975 time period, average difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration during the years 1971-2000, and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input. Twenty-five variables were selected for the final model for log-transformed nitrate. In general, increasing probability of anoxic conditions and increasing precipitation relative to potential evapotranspiration had a corresponding decrease in nitrate concentration predictions. Conversely, increasing 1975 unsaturated zone nitrogen leaching flux and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input had an increasing relative impact on nitrate predictions. Three-dimensional visualization indicates that nitrate predictions depend on the probability of anoxic conditions and other factors, and that nitrate predictions generally decreased with increasing groundwater age.

Fecal Indicator and Pathogenic Bacteria and Their Antibiotic Resistance in Alluvial Groundwater of an Irrigated Agricultural Region with Dairies.

Surveys of microbiological groundwater quality were conducted in a region with intensive animal agriculture in California, USA. The survey included monitoring and domestic wells in eight concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) and 200 small (domestic and community supply district) supply wells across the region. was not detected in groundwater, whereas O157:H7 and were each detected in 2 of 190 CAFO monitoring well samples. Nonpathogenic generic and spp. were detected in 24.2% (46/190) and 97.4% (185/190) groundwater samples from CAFO monitoring wells and in 4.2% (1/24) and 87.5% (21/24) of CAFO domestic wells, respectively. Concentrations of both generic and spp. were significantly associated with well depth, season, and the type of adjacent land use in the CAFO. No pathogenic bacteria were detected in groundwater from 200 small supply wells in the extended survey. However, 4.5 to 10.3% groundwater samples were positive for generic and . Concentrations of generic were not significantly associated with any factors, but concentrations of were significantly associated with proximity to CAFOs, seasons, and concentrations of potassium in water. Among a subset of and isolates from both surveys, the majority of (63.6%) and (86.1%) isolates exhibited resistance to multiple (≥3) antibiotics. Findings confirm significant microbial and antibiotic resistance loading to CAFO groundwater. Results also demonstrate significant attenuative capacity of the unconfined alluvial aquifer system with respect to microbial transport.