Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming.

Earth System Models (ESMs) continue to diagnose a wide range of carbon budgets for each level of global warming. Here, we present emergent constraints on the carbon budget as a function of global warming, which combine the available ESM historical simulations and future projections for a range of scenarios, with observational estimates of global warming and anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the present day. We estimate mean and likely ranges for cumulative carbon budgets for the Paris targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming of 812 [691, 933] PgC and 1048 [881, 1216] PgC, which are more than 10% larger than the ensemble mean values from the CMIP6 models. The linearity between cumulative emissions and global warming is found to be maintained at least until 4 °C, and is consistent with an effective Transient Climate Response to Emissions (eTCRE) of 2.1 [1.8, 2.6] °C/1000PgC, from a global warming of 1.2 °C onwards.

Lowering water table reduces carbon sink strength and carbon stocks in northern peatlands.

Peatlands at high latitudes have accumulated >400 Pg carbon (C) because saturated soil and cold temperatures suppress C decomposition. This substantial amount of C in Arctic and Boreal peatlands is potentially subject to increased decomposition if the water table (WT) decreases due to climate change, including permafrost thaw-related drying. Here, we optimize a version of the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems model (ORCHIDEE-PCH4) using site-specific observations to investigate changes in CO2 and CH4 fluxes as well as C stock responses to an experimentally manipulated decrease of WT at six northern peatlands. The unmanipulated control peatlands, with the WT <20 cm on average (seasonal max up to 45 cm) below the surface, currently act as C sinks in most years (58 ± 34 g C m-2  year-1 ; including 6 ± 7 g C-CH4 m-2  year-1 emission). We found, however, that lowering the WT by 10 cm reduced the CO2 sink by 13 ± 15 g C m-2  year-1 and decreased CH4 emission by 4 ± 4 g CH4 m-2  year-1 , thus accumulating less C over 100 years (0.2 ± 0.2 kg C m-2 ). Yet, the reduced emission of CH4 , which has a larger greenhouse warming potential, resulted in a net decrease in greenhouse gas balance by 310 ± 360 g CO2-eq  m-2  year-1 . Peatlands with the initial WT close to the soil surface were more vulnerable to C loss: Non-permafrost peatlands lost >2 kg C m-2 over 100 years when WT is lowered by 50 cm, while permafrost peatlands temporally switched from C sinks to sources. These results highlight that reductions in C storage capacity in response to drying of northern peatlands are offset in part by reduced CH4 emissions, thus slightly reducing the positive carbon climate feedbacks of peatlands under a warmer and drier future climate scenario.

Confronting the water potential information gap.

Water potential directly controls the function of leaves, roots, and microbes, and gradients in water potential drive water flows throughout the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Notwithstanding its clear relevance for many ecosystem processes, soil water potential is rarely measured in-situ, and plant water potential observations are generally discrete, sparse, and not yet aggregated into accessible databases. These gaps limit our conceptual understanding of biophysical responses to moisture stress and inject large uncertainty into hydrologic and land surface models. Here, we outline the conceptual and predictive gains that could be made with more continuous and discoverable observations of water potential in soils and plants. We discuss improvements to sensor technologies that facilitate in situ characterization of water potential, as well as strategies for building new networks that aggregate water potential data across sites. We end by highlighting novel opportunities for linking more representative site-level observations of water potential to remotely-sensed proxies. Together, these considerations offer a roadmap for clearer links between ecohydrological processes and the water potential gradients that have the 'potential' to substantially reduce conceptual and modeling uncertainties.