Measuring the cost-effectiveness of a home-visiting intervention to promote early child development among rural families linked to the Rwandan social protection system.

Early childhood development (ECD) programmes are heralded as a way to improve children's health and educational outcomes. However, few studies in developing countries calculate the effectiveness of quality early childhood interventions. This study estimates the cost and cost-effectiveness of the Sugira Muryango (SM) trial, a home-visiting intervention to improve ECD outcomes through positive parent-child relationships. Cost-effectiveness analysis of ECD interventions is challenging given their potential to have multiple benefits. We propose a cost-effectiveness method using a single outcome, in this case the improvement in cognitive development per home-visit session, as an indication of efficiency comparable across similar interventions. The trial intervention cost US$456 per family. This cost will likely fall below US$200 if the intervention is scaled through government systems. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that while SM generated a relatively small impact on markers of early development, it did so efficiently. The observed improvements in cognitive development per home-visit are similar to other home-visiting interventions of longer duration. SM by focusing on the family had benefits beyond ECD, including reductions in violence against children and intermate partner violence, further analysis is needed to include these returns in the economic evaluation.

Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In the 6 months following our estimates from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, the proliferation of new coronavirus variants, updated mortality data, and disparities in vaccine access increased the amount of children experiencing COVID-19-associated orphanhood. To inform responses, we aimed to model the increases in numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, as well as the cumulative orphanhood age-group distribution and circumstance (maternal or paternal orphanhood). METHODS: We used updated excess mortality and fertility data to model increases in minimum estimates of COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver deaths from our original study period of March 1, 2020-April 30, 2021, to include the new period of May 1-Oct 31, 2021, for 21 countries. Orphanhood was defined as the death of one or both parents; primary caregiver loss included parental death or the death of one or both custodial grandparents; and secondary caregiver loss included co-residing grandparents or kin. We used logistic regression and further incorporated a fixed effect for western European countries into our previous model to avoid over-predicting caregiver loss in that region. For the entire 20-month period, we grouped children by age (0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-17 years) and maternal or paternal orphanhood, using fertility contributions, and we modelled global and regional extrapolations of numbers of orphans. 95% credible intervals (CrIs) are given for all estimates. FINDINGS: The number of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death is estimated to have increased by 90·0% (95% CrI 89·7-90·4) from April 30 to Oct 31, 2021, from 2 737 300 (95% CrI 1 976 100-2 987 000) to 5 200 300 (3 619 400-5 731 400). Between March 1, 2020, and Oct 31, 2021, 491 300 (95% CrI 485 100-497 900) children aged 0-4 years, 736 800 (726 900-746 500) children aged 5-9 years, and 2 146 700 (2 120 900-2 174 200) children aged 10-17 years are estimated to have experienced COVID-19-associated orphanhood. Globally, 76·5% (95% CrI 76·3-76·7) of children were paternal orphans, whereas 23·5% (23·3-23·7) were maternal orphans. In each age group and region, the prevalence of paternal orphanhood exceeded that of maternal orphanhood. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death almost doubled in 6 months compared with the amount after the first 14 months of the pandemic. Over the entire 20-month period, 5·0 million COVID-19 deaths meant that 5·2 million children lost a parent or caregiver. Our data on children's ages and circumstances should support pandemic response planning for children globally. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and Medical Research Council), Oak Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, and Imperial College London.

Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic priorities have focused on prevention, detection, and response. Beyond morbidity and mortality, pandemics carry secondary impacts, such as children orphaned or bereft of their caregivers. Such children often face adverse consequences, including poverty, abuse, and institutionalisation. We provide estimates for the magnitude of this problem resulting from COVID-19 and describe the need for resource allocation. METHODS: We used mortality and fertility data to model minimum estimates and rates of COVID-19-associated deaths of primary or secondary caregivers for children younger than 18 years in 21 countries. We considered parents and custodial grandparents as primary caregivers, and co-residing grandparents or older kin (aged 60-84 years) as secondary caregivers. To avoid overcounting, we adjusted for possible clustering of deaths using an estimated secondary attack rate and age-specific infection-fatality ratios for SARS-CoV-2. We used these estimates to model global extrapolations for the number of children who have experienced COVID-19-associated deaths of primary and secondary caregivers. FINDINGS: Globally, from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, we estimate 1 134 000 children (95% credible interval 884 000-1 185 000) experienced the death of primary caregivers, including at least one parent or custodial grandparent. 1 562 000 children (1 299 000-1 683 000) experienced the death of at least one primary or secondary caregiver. Countries in our study set with primary caregiver death rates of at least one per 1000 children included Peru (10·2 per 1000 children), South Africa (5·1), Mexico (3·5), Brazil (2·4), Colombia (2·3), Iran (1·7), the USA (1·5), Argentina (1·1), and Russia (1·0). Numbers of children orphaned exceeded numbers of deaths among those aged 15-50 years. Between two and five times more children had deceased fathers than deceased mothers. INTERPRETATION: Orphanhood and caregiver deaths are a hidden pandemic resulting from COVID-19-associated deaths. Accelerating equitable vaccine delivery is key to prevention. Psychosocial and economic support can help families to nurture children bereft of caregivers and help to ensure that institutionalisation is avoided. These data show the need for an additional pillar of our response: prevent, detect, respond, and care for children. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Medical Research Council), UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, and Imperial College London.

Effect of a home-visiting parenting program to promote early childhood development and prevent violence: a cluster-randomized trial in Rwanda.

INTRODUCTION: Families living in extreme poverty require interventions to support early-childhood development (ECD) due to broad risks. This longitudinal cluster randomised trial examines the effectiveness of Sugira Muryango (SM), a home-visiting intervention linked to Rwanda's social protection system to promote ECD and reduce violence compared with usual care (UC). METHODS: Families with children aged 6-36 months were recruited in 284 geographical clusters across three districts. Cluster-level randomisation (allocated 1:1 SM:UC) was used to prevent diffusion. SM was hypothesised to improve child development, reduce violence and increase father engagement. Developmental outcomes were assessed using the Ages and Stages Questionnaire (ASQ-3) and the Malawi Development Assessment Tool (MDAT) and anthropometric assessments of growth. Violence was assessed using questions from UNICEF Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey (MICS) and Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Father engagement was assessed using the Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment. Blinded enumerators conducted interviews and developmental assessments. RESULTS: A total of 541 SM families and 508 UC families were enrolled and included in the analyses. Study attrition (2.0% children; 9.6% caregivers) was addressed by hot deck imputation. Children in SM families improved more on gross motor (d=0.162, 95% CI 0.065 to 0.260), communication (d=0.081, 95% CI 0.005 to 0.156), problem solving (d=0.101, 95% CI 0.002 to 0.179) and personal-social development (d=0.096, 95% CI -0.015 to 0.177) on the ASQ-3. SM families showed increased father engagement (OR=1.592, 95% CI 1.069 to 2.368), decreased harsh discipline (incidence rate ratio, IRR=0.741, 95% CI 0.657 to 0.835) and intimate partner violence (IRR=0.616, 95% CI:0.458 to 0.828). There were no intervention-related improvements on MDAT or child growth. CONCLUSION: Social protection programmes provide a means to deliver ECD intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02510313.

Promoting parent-child relationships and preventing violence via home-visiting: a pre-post cluster randomised trial among Rwandan families linked to social protection programmes.

BACKGROUND: Sugira Muryango is a father-engaged early child development and violence-prevention home-visiting programme delivered by trained lay workers. This cluster-randomised trial evaluates whether families living in extreme poverty (Ubudehe 1, the poorest category in the Government of Rwanda's wealth ranking) who receive Sugira Muryango in combination with a government-provided social protection programme demonstrate greater responsive, positive caregiving, nutrition, care seeking, hygiene, and father involvement compared with control families receiving usual care (UC). METHODS: Using detailed maps, we grouped closely spaced villages into 284 geographic clusters stratified by the type of social protection programmes operating in the village clusters; 198 clusters met all enrolment criteria. Sugira Muryango was delivered to n = 541 families in 100 treatment clusters with children aged 6-36 months living in extreme poverty. We assessed changes in outcomes in intervention and n = 508 UC control families using structured surveys and observation. Analyses were intent to treat using mixed models to accommodate clustering. RESULTS: Families receiving Sugira Muryango improved on core outcomes of parent-child relationships assessed using the Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment (Cohen's d = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.74, 0.99) and the Observation of Mother-Child Interaction (Cohen's d = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.17, 0.41). We also saw reductions in harsh discipline on items from the UNICEF MICS (OR = 0.30: 95% CI: 0.19, 0.47) and in violent victimisation of female caregivers by their partners (OR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.24, 1.00) compared with UC. Moreover, children in families receiving SM had a 0.45 higher increase in food groups consumed in the past 24 h (Cohen's d = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.47), increased care seeking for diarrhoea (OR = 4.43, 95% CI: 1.95, 10.10) and fever (OR = 3.28, 95% CI: 1.82, 5.89), and improved hygiene behaviours such as proper treatment of water (OR = 3.39, 95% CI: 2.16, 5.30) compared with UC. Finally, Sugira Muryango was associated with decreased caregiver depression and anxiety (OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.38, 0.88). CONCLUSIONS: Sugira Muryango led to improvements in caregiver behaviours linked to child development and health as well as reductions in violence. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT02510313.