Eyes of the world on a warmer, less frozen, and greener Arctic.

Rapid atmospheric warming and sea-ice retreat are driving widespread changes in Arctic ecosystems, among the most pervasive of which is the "greening of the Arctic"-an increase in the cover and biomass of vegetation observed by satellites across much of the Arctic tundra biome. Determining the drivers, impacts, and feedbacks of Arctic greening requires continued investment in robust field, remote-sensing, and model-based capabilities, and improved integration of the knowledge base of Arctic peoples. These tools and approaches support the triangulation of complex problems and the development of improved projections for the warmer Arctic tundra biome of the future.

Ancient plant DNA reveals High Arctic greening during the Last Interglacial.

Summer warming is driving a greening trend across the Arctic, with the potential for large-scale amplification of climate change due to vegetation-related feedbacks [Pearson et al., Nat. Clim. Chang. (3), 673-677 (2013)]. Because observational records are sparse and temporally limited, past episodes of Arctic warming can help elucidate the magnitude of vegetation response to temperature change. The Last Interglacial ([LIG], 129,000 to 116,000 y ago) was the most recent episode of Arctic warming on par with predicted 21st century temperature change [Otto-Bliesner et al., Philos. Trans. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. (371), 20130097 (2013) and Post et al., SciAdv (5), eaaw9883 (2019)]. However, high-latitude terrestrial records from this period are rare, so LIG vegetation distributions are incompletely known. Pollen-based vegetation reconstructions can be biased by long-distance pollen transport, further obscuring the paleoenvironmental record. Here, we present a LIG vegetation record based on ancient DNA in lake sediment and compare it with fossil pollen. Comprehensive plant community reconstructions through the last and current interglacial (the Holocene) on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada, reveal coherent climate-driven community shifts across both interglacials. Peak LIG warmth featured a ∼400-km northward range shift of dwarf birch, a key woody shrub that is again expanding northward. Greening of the High Arctic-documented here by multiple proxies-likely represented a strong positive feedback on high-latitude LIG warming. Authenticated ancient DNA from this lake sediment also extends the useful preservation window for the technique and highlights the utility of combining traditional and molecular approaches for gleaning paleoenvironmental insights to better anticipate a warmer future.

Landscape impacts of 3D-seismic surveys in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska.

Although three-dimensional (3D) seismic surveys have improved the success rate of exploratory drilling for oil and gas, the impacts have received little scientific scrutiny, despite affecting more area than any other oil and gas activity. To aid policy-makers and scientists, we reviewed studies of the landscape impacts of 3D-seismic surveys in the Arctic. We analyzed a proposed 3D-seismic program in northeast Alaska, in the northern Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which includes a grid 63,000 km of seismic trails and additional camp-move trails. Current regulations are not adequate to eliminate impacts from these activities. We address issues related to the high-density of 3D trails compared to 2D methods, with larger crews, more camps, and more vehicles. We focus on consequences to the hilly landscapes, including microtopography, snow, vegetation, hydrology, active layers, and permafrost. Based on studies of 2D-seismic trails created in 1984-1985 in the same area by similar types of vehicles, under similar regulations, approximately 122 km2 would likely sustain direct medium- to high-level disturbance from the proposed exploration, with possibly expanded impacts through permafrost degradation and hydrological connectivity. Strong winds are common, and snow cover necessary to minimize impacts from vehicles is windblown and inadequate to protect much of the area. Studies of 2D-seismic impacts have shown that moist vegetation types, which dominate the area, sustain longer-lasting damage than wet or dry types, and that the heavy vehicles used for mobile camps caused the most damage. The permafrost is ice rich, which combined with the hilly topography, makes it especially susceptible to thermokarst and erosion triggered by winter vehicle traffic. The effects of climate warming will exacerbate the impacts of winter travel due to warmer permafrost and a shift of precipitation from snow to rain. The cumulative impacts of 3D-seismic traffic in tundra areas need to be better assessed, together with the effects of climate change and the industrial development that would likely follow. Current data needs include studies of the impacts of 3D-seismic exploration, better climate records for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, especially for wind and snow; and high-resolution maps of topography, ground ice, hydrology, and vegetation.

Vegetation on mesic loamy and sandy soils along a 1700-km maritime Eurasia Arctic Transect.

QUESTIONS: How do plant communities on zonal loamy vs. sandy soils vary across the full maritime Arctic bioclimate gradient? How are plant communities of these areas related to existing vegetation units of the European Vegetation Classification? What are the main environmental factors controlling transitions of vegetation along the bioclimate gradient? LOCATION: 1700-km Eurasia Arctic Transect (EAT), Yamal Peninsula and Franz Josef Land (FJL), Russia. METHODS: The Braun-Blanquet approach was used to sample mesic loamy and sandy plots on 14 total study sites at six locations, one in each of the five Arctic bioclimate subzones and the forest-tundra transition. Trends in soil factors, cover of plant growth forms (PGFs) and species diversity were examined along the summer warmth index (SWI) gradient and on loamy and sandy soils. Classification and ordination were used to group the plots and to test relationships between vegetation and environmental factors. RESULTS: Clear, mostly non-linear, trends occurred for soil factors, vegetation structure and species diversity along the climate gradient. Cluster analysis revealed seven groups with clear relationships to subzone and soil texture. Clusters at the ends of the bioclimate gradient (forest-tundra and polar desert) had many highly diagnostic taxa, whereas clusters from the Yamal Peninsula had only a few. Axis 1 of a DCA was strongly correlated with latitude and summer warmth; Axis 2 was strongly correlated with soil moisture, percentage sand and landscape age. CONCLUSIONS: Summer temperature and soil texture have clear effects on tundra canopy structure and species composition, with consequences for ecosystem properties. Each layer of the plant canopy has a distinct region of peak abundance along the bioclimate gradient. The major vegetation types are weakly aligned with described classes of the European Vegetation Checklist, indicating a continuous floristic gradient rather than distinct subzone regions. The study provides ground-based vegetation data for satellite-based interpretations of the western maritime Eurasian Arctic, and the first vegetation data from Hayes Island, Franz Josef Land, which is strongly separated geographically and floristically from the rest of the gradient and most susceptible to on-going climate change.

Cumulative geoecological effects of 62 years of infrastructure and climate change in ice-rich permafrost landscapes, Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska.

Many areas of the Arctic are simultaneously affected by rapid climate change and rapid industrial development. These areas are likely to increase in number and size as sea ice melts and abundant Arctic natural resources become more accessible. Documenting the changes that have already occurred is essential to inform management approaches to minimize the impacts of future activities. Here, we determine the cumulative geoecological effects of 62 years (1949-2011) of infrastructure- and climate-related changes in the Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, the oldest and most extensive industrial complex in the Arctic, and an area with extensive ice-rich permafrost that is extraordinarily sensitive to climate change. We demonstrate that thermokarst has recently affected broad areas of the entire region, and that a sudden increase in the area affected began shortly after 1990 corresponding to a rapid rise in regional summer air temperatures and related permafrost temperatures. We also present a conceptual model that describes how infrastructure-related factors, including road dust and roadside flooding are contributing to more extensive thermokarst in areas adjacent to roads and gravel pads. We mapped the historical infrastructure changes for the Alaska North Slope oilfields for 10 dates from the initial oil discovery in 1968-2011. By 2010, over 34% of the intensively mapped area was affected by oil development. In addition, between 1990 and 2001, coincident with strong atmospheric warming during the 1990s, 19% of the remaining natural landscapes (excluding areas covered by infrastructure, lakes and river floodplains) exhibited expansion of thermokarst features resulting in more abundant small ponds, greater microrelief, more active lakeshore erosion and increased landscape and habitat heterogeneity. This transition to a new geoecological regime will have impacts to wildlife habitat, local residents and industry.