A minimal PBPK model to accelerate preclinical development of drugs against tuberculosis.

Introduction: Understanding drug exposure at disease target sites is pivotal to profiling new drug candidates in terms of tolerability and efficacy. Such quantification is particularly tedious for anti-tuberculosis (TB) compounds as the heterogeneous pulmonary microenvironment due to the infection may alter lung permeability and affect drug disposition. Murine models have been a longstanding support in TB research so far and are here used as human surrogates to unveil the distribution of several anti-TB compounds at the site-of-action via a novel and centralized PBPK design framework. Methods: As an intermediate approach between data-driven pharmacokinetic (PK) models and whole-body physiologically based (PB) PK models, we propose a parsimonious framework for PK investigation (minimal PBPK approach) that retains key physiological processes involved in TB disease, while reducing computational costs and prior knowledge requirements. By lumping together pulmonary TB-unessential organs, our minimal PBPK model counts 9 equations compared to the 36 of published full models, accelerating the simulation more than 3-folds in Matlab 2022b. Results: The model has been successfully tested and validated against 11 anti-TB compounds-rifampicin, rifapentine, pyrazinamide, ethambutol, isoniazid, moxifloxacin, delamanid, pretomanid, bedaquiline, OPC-167832, GSK2556286 - showing robust predictability power in recapitulating PK dynamics in mice. Structural inspections on the proposed design have ensured global identifiability and listed free fraction in plasma and blood-to-plasma ratio as top sensitive parameters for PK metrics. The platform-oriented implementation allows fast comparison of the compounds in terms of exposure and target attainment. Discrepancies in plasma and lung levels for the latest BPaMZ and HPMZ regimens have been analyzed in terms of their impact on preclinical experiment design and on PK/PD indices. Conclusion: The framework we developed requires limited drug- and species-specific information to reconstruct accurate PK dynamics, delivering a unified viewpoint on anti-TB drug distribution at the site-of-action and a flexible fit-for-purpose tool to accelerate model-informed drug design pipelines and facilitate translation into the clinic.

QSPcc reduces bottlenecks in computational model simulations.

Mathematical models have grown in size and complexity becoming often computationally intractable. In sensitivity analysis and optimization phases, critical for tuning, validation and qualification, these models may be run thousands of times. Scientific programming languages popular for prototyping, such as MATLAB and R, can be a bottleneck in terms of performance. Here we show a compiler-based approach, designed to be universal at handling engineering and life sciences modeling styles, that automatically translates models into fast C code. At first QSPcc is demonstrated to be crucial in enabling the research on otherwise intractable Quantitative Systems Pharmacology models, such as in rare Lysosomal Storage Disorders. To demonstrate the full value in seamlessly accelerating, or enabling, the R&D efforts in natural sciences, we then benchmark QSPcc against 8 solutions on 24 real-world projects from different scientific fields. With speed-ups of 22000x peak, and 1605x arithmetic mean, our results show consistent superior performances.

A Retrospective Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic Evolution in Italy.

Late 2019 saw the outbreak of COVID-19, a respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which rapidly turned into a pandemic, killing more than 2.77 million people and infecting more than 126 million as of late March 2021. Daily collected data on infection cases and hospitalizations informed decision makers on the ongoing pandemic emergency, enabling the design of diversified countermeasures, from behavioral policies to full lockdowns, to curb the virus spread. In this context, mechanistic models could represent valuable tools to optimize the timing and stringency of interventions, and to reveal non-trivial properties of the pandemic dynamics that could improve the design of suitable guidelines for future epidemics. We performed a retrospective analysis of the Italian epidemic evolution up to mid-December 2020 to gain insight into the main characteristics of the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, prior to the emergence of new mutations and the vaccination campaign. We defined a time-varying optimization procedure to calibrate a refined version of the SIDARTHE (Susceptible, Infected, Diagnosed, Ailing, Recognized, Threatened, Healed, Extinct) model and hence accurately reconstruct the epidemic trajectory. We then derived additional features of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy not directly retrievable from reported data, such as the estimate of the day zero of infection in late November 2019 and the estimate of the spread of undetected infection. The present analysis contributes to a better understanding of the past pandemic waves, confirming the importance of epidemiological modeling to support an informed policy design against epidemics to come.

A robust computational pipeline for model-based and data-driven phenotype clustering.

MOTIVATION: Precision medicine is a promising field that proposes, in contrast to a one-size-fits-all approach, the tailoring of medical decisions, treatments or products. In this context, it is crucial to introduce innovative methods to stratify a population of patients on the basis of an accurate system-level knowledge of the disease. This is particularly important in very challenging conditions, where the use of standard statistical methods can be prevented by poor data availability or by the need of oversimplifying the processes regulating a complex disease. RESULTS: We define an innovative method for phenotype classification that combines experimental data and a mathematical description of the disease biology. The methodology exploits the mathematical model for inferring additional subject features relevant for the classification. Finally, the algorithm identifies the optimal number of clusters and classifies the samples on the basis of a subset of the features estimated during the model fit. We tested the algorithm in two test cases: an in silico case in the context of dyslipidemia, a complex disease for which a large population of patients has been generated, and a clinical test case, in the context of a lysosomal rare disorder, for which the amount of available data was limited. In both the scenarios, our methodology proved to be accurate and robust, and allowed the inference of an additional phenotype division that the experimental data did not show. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The code to reproduce the in silico results has been implemented in MATLAB v.2017b and it is available in the Supplementary Material. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model of Gaucher Disease Type 1 Provides Mechanistic Insight Into the Response to Substrate Reduction Therapy With Eliglustat.

Gaucher's disease type 1 (GD1) leads to significant morbidity and mortality through clinical manifestations, such as splenomegaly, hematological complications, and bone disease. Two types of therapies are currently approved for GD1: enzyme replacement therapy (ERT), and substrate reduction therapy (SRT). In this study, we have developed a quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model, which recapitulates the effects of eliglustat, the only first-line SRT approved for GD1, on treatment-naïve or patients with ERT-stabilized adult GD1. This multiscale model represents the mechanism of action of eliglustat that leads toward reduction of spleen volume. Model capabilities were illustrated through the application of the model to predict ERT and eliglustat responses in virtual populations of adult patients with GD1, representing patients across a spectrum of disease severity as defined by genotype-phenotype relationships. In summary, the QSP model provides a mechanistic computational platform for predicting treatment response via different modalities within the heterogeneous GD1 patient population.

Stochastic simulation algorithms for computational systems biology: Exact, approximate, and hybrid methods.

Nowadays, mathematical modeling is playing a key role in many different research fields. In the context of system biology, mathematical models and their associated computer simulations constitute essential tools of investigation. Among the others, they provide a way to systematically analyze systems perturbations, develop hypotheses to guide the design of new experimental tests, and ultimately assess the suitability of specific molecules as novel therapeutic targets. To these purposes, stochastic simulation algorithms (SSAs) have been introduced for numerically simulating the time evolution of a well-stirred chemically reacting system by taking proper account of the randomness inherent in such a system. In this work, we review the main SSAs that have been introduced in the context of exact, approximate, and hybrid stochastic simulation. Specifically, we will introduce the direct method (DM), the first reaction method (FRM), the next reaction method (NRM) and the rejection-based SSA (RSSA) in the area of exact stochastic simulation. We will then present the τ-leaping method and the chemical Langevin method in the area of approximate stochastic simulation and an implementation of the hybrid RSSA (HRSSA) in the context of hybrid stochastic-deterministic simulation. Finally, we will consider the model of the sphingolipid metabolism to provide an example of application of SSA to computational system biology by exemplifying how different simulation strategies may unveil different insights into the investigated biological phenomenon. This article is categorized under: Models of Systems Properties and Processes > Mechanistic Models Analytical and Computational Methods > Computational Methods.

Incorporating extrinsic noise into the stochastic simulation of biochemical reactions: A comparison of approaches.

The stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) has been widely used for simulating biochemical reaction networks. SSA is able to capture the inherently intrinsic noise of the biological system, which is due to the discreteness of species population and to the randomness of their reciprocal interactions. However, SSA does not consider other sources of heterogeneity in biochemical reaction systems, which are referred to as extrinsic noise. Here, we extend two simulation approaches, namely, the integration-based method and the rejection-based method, to take extrinsic noise into account by allowing the reaction propensities to vary in time and state dependent manner. For both methods, new efficient implementations are introduced and their efficiency and applicability to biological models are investigated. Our numerical results suggest that the rejection-based method performs better than the integration-based method when the extrinsic noise is considered.

Mechanistic interplay between ceramide and insulin resistance.

Recent research adds to a growing body of literature on the essential role of ceramides in glucose homeostasis and insulin signaling, while the mechanistic interplay between various components of ceramide metabolism remains to be quantified. We present an extended model of C16:0 ceramide production through both the de novo synthesis and the salvage pathways. We verify our model with a combination of published models and independent experimental data. In silico experiments of the behavior of ceramide and related bioactive lipids in accordance with the observed transcriptomic changes in obese/diabetic murine macrophages at 5 and 16 weeks support the observation of insulin resistance only at the later phase. Our analysis suggests the pivotal role of ceramide synthase, serine palmitoyltransferase and dihydroceramide desaturase involved in the de novo synthesis and the salvage pathways in influencing insulin resistance versus its regulation.

A Novel Insulin/Glucose Model after a Mixed-Meal Test in Patients with Type 1 Diabetes on Insulin Pump Therapy.

Current closed-loop insulin delivery methods stem from sophisticated models of the glucose-insulin (G/I) system, mostly based on complex studies employing glucose tracer technology. We tested the performance of a new minimal model (GLUKINSLOOP 2.0) of the G/I system to characterize the glucose and insulin dynamics during multiple mixed meal tests (MMT) of different sizes in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D) on insulin pump therapy (continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion, CSII). The GLUKINSLOOP 2.0 identified the G/I system, provided a close fit of the G/I time-courses and showed acceptable reproducibility of the G/I system parameters in repeated studies of identical and double-sized MMTs. This model can provide a fairly good and reproducible description of the G/I system in T1D patients on CSII, and it may be applied to create a bank of "virtual" patients. Our results might be relevant at improving the architecture of upcoming closed-loop CSII systems.