Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life-history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in the west of Ireland to model statistical relationships between atmospheric variables, water temperature, and freshwater growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon. We then use this information to project potential changes in juvenile growth and life-history scheduling under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios from 1961 to 2100, based on an ensemble of five climate models. Historical water temperatures were well predicted with a recurrent neural network, using observation-based atmospheric forcing data. Length-at-age was in turn also well predicted by cumulative growing degree days calculated from these water temperatures. Most juveniles in the Burrishoole population migrated to sea as 2-year-old smolts, but our future projections indicate that the system should start producing a greater proportion of 1-year-old smolts, as increasingly more juveniles cross a size-based threshold in their first summer for smoltification the following spring. Those failing to cross the size-based threshold will instead become 2-year-old smolts, but at a larger length relative to 2-year-old smolts observed currently, owing to greater overall freshwater growth opportunity. These changes in age- and size-at-seaward migration could have cascading effects on age- and size-at-maturity and reproductive output. Consequently, the seemingly small changes that our results demonstrate have the potential to cause significant shifts in population dynamics over the full life cycle. This workflow is highly applicable across the range of the Atlantic salmon, as well as to other anadromous species, as it uses openly accessible climate data and a length-at-age model with minimal input requirements, fostering improved general understanding of phenotypic and demographic responses to climate change and management implications.

Null Models for the Opportunity for Selection.

AbstractCrow's "opportunity for selection" (I=variance in relative fitness) is an important albeit controversial eco-evolutionary concept, particularly regarding the most appropriate null model(s). Here, we treat this topic in a comprehensive way by considering opportunities for both fertility selection (If) and viability selection (Im) for discrete generations, both seasonal and lifetime reproductive success in age-structured species, and experimental designs that include either a full or partial life cycle, with complete enumeration or random subsampling. For each scenario, a null model that includes random demographic stochasticity can be constructed that follows Crow's initial formulation that I=If+Im. The two components of I are qualitatively different. Whereas an adjusted If (ΔIf) can be computed that accounts for random demographic stochasticity in offspring number, Im cannot be similarly adjusted in the absence of data on phenotypic traits under viability selection. Including as potential parents some individuals that die before reproductive age produces an overall zero-inflated Poisson null model. It is always important to remember that (1) Crow's I represents only the opportunity for selection and not selection itself and (2) the species' biology can lead to random stochasticity in offspring number that is either overdispersed or underdispersed compared with the Poisson (Wright-Fisher) expectation.

Autumn outmigrants in brown trout (Salmo trutta) are not a demographic dead-end.

Genetic identity analysis and PIT (passive integrated transponder) tagging were used to examine the freshwater return rates and phenotypic characteristics of n = 1791 downstream migrating juvenile Salmo trutta in the Burrishoole catchment (northwest Ireland) across the period September 2017 to December 2020. In this system, juveniles out-migrate (move from freshwater into brackish or marine habitats) in every month of the year, with distinct seasonal peaks in spring (March through June; mostly silvered smolts) and autumn (September through December; mostly younger, unsilvered fry or parr). Both types exhibited a sex-bias towards females, which was stronger in spring (78% females) than in autumn outmigrants (67%). Sixty-nine returning fish were matched back to previous juvenile outmigrants, and similar return rates were found for spring outmigrants (5.0%), autumn outmigrants (3.3%) and fish that out-migrated outside of spring or autumn (2.8%). Spring and autumn outmigrants returned at similar dates (typically mid to late July), but autumn fish were away for longer periods (median = 612 days; spring outmigrants = 104 days). Autumn outmigrants were 25% smaller than spring outmigrants at outmigration and 6% smaller on their return, and within both groups smaller/younger outmigrants spent longer away than larger/older outmigrants. Autumn outmigrants were more likely to return unsilvered as "slob" trout (84%) than spring outmigrants (31%), suggesting they make greater use of brackish habitats that might be safer, but less productive, than fully marine habitats. Nonetheless, both types also produced silvered "sea trout" (≥1+ sea-age), implying neither is locked into a single life-history strategy. The findings emphasise that autumn outmigrants and the transitional habitats that support their persistence should not be overlooked in salmonid management and conservation.

The opportunity for selection: A slippery concept in ecology and evolution.

Natural selection can only occur if individuals differ in fitness. For this reason, the variance in relative fitness has been equated with the 'opportunity for selection' ( I ), which has a long, albeit somewhat controversial, history. In this paper we discuss the use/misuse of I and related metrics in evolutionary ecology. The opportunity is only realised if some fraction of I is caused by trait variation. Thus, I > 0 does not imply that selection is occurring, as sometimes erroneously assumed, because all fitness variation could be independent of phenotype. The selection intensity on any given trait cannot exceed I , but this upper limit will never be reached because (a) stochastic factors always affect fitness, and (b) there might be multiple traits under selection. The expected magnitude of the stochastic component of I is negatively correlated with mean fitness. Uncertainty in realised I is also larger when mean fitness or population/sample size are low. Variation in I across time or space thus can be dominated (or solely driven) by variation in the strength of demographic stochasticity. We illustrate these points using simulations and empirical data from a population study on great tits Parus major. Our analysis shows that the scope for fecundity selection in the great tits is substantially higher when using annual number of recruits as the fitness measure, rather than fledglings or eggs, even after adjusting for the dependence of I on mean fitness. This suggests nonrandom survival of juveniles across families between life stages. Indeed, previous work on this population has shown that offspring recruitment is often nonrandom with respect to clutch size and laying date of parents, for example. We conclude that one cannot make direct inferences about selection based on fitness data alone. However, examining variation in ∆ I F (the opportunity for fecundity selection adjusted for mean fitness) across life stages, years or environments can offer clues as to when/where fecundity selection might be strongest, which can be useful for research planning and experimental design.

Core surgical training: The influence of time and date on interview outcome.

INTRODUCTION: Core Surgical Training has become increasingly competitive over the last 5 years with the competition ratio reaching 4.16 in 2021 compared to 2.31 in 2015. This is thought to be due to two key factors: a large yearly increase in the number of applicants and an unchanging number of jobs. Steps are taken by HEE to ensure the process is as standardised and fair as possible. Interview date and time selection remains the only aspect of the process that candidates currently control. We aim to explore whether time and date of an interview has any impact on interview scores within CST. METHODS: This study is a national, retrospective cohort study. A freedom of information act request was submitted to HEE to acquire anonymised interview scores and date/time of interview for all CST interviews conducted for the 2022-2023 cohort. RESULTS: Across the two-week period whereby interviews were held 1264 interviews were undertaken. Candidates with morning interviews had a mean score of 111 (±16) and candidates in the afternoon had a mean score of 108 (±18.5) (p = 0.023). Candidates interviewing in week 1 had a mean score of 107 (±18) and candidates interviewing in week 2 had a mean score of 112 (±16.4) (p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: A small difference in score has a significant impact for candidates with their geographical location, specialty choice or event enrolment in the core training programme potentially impacted. It is therefore imperative that these findings receive further evaluation going forward to ensure the process is fair and robust for all participants.

Escalating the conflict? Intersex genetic correlations influence adaptation to environmental change in facultatively migratory populations.

Males and females are often subject to different and even opposing selection pressures. When a given trait has a shared genetic basis between the sexes, sexual conflict (antagonism) can arise. This can result in significant individual-level fitness consequences that might also affect population performance, whilst anthropogenic environmental change can further exacerbate maladaptation in one or both sexes driven by sexual antagonism. Here, we develop a genetically explicit eco-evolutionary model using an agent-based framework to explore how a population of a facultatively migratory fish species (brown trout Salmo trutta) adapts to environmental change across a range of intersex genetic correlations for migration propensity, which influence the magnitude of sexual conflict. Our modelled focal trait represents a condition threshold governing whether individuals adopt a resident or anadromous (sea migration) tactic. Anadromy affords potential size-mediated reproductive advantages to both males and females due to improved feeding opportunities at sea, but these can be undermined by high background marine mortality and survival/growth costs imposed by marine parasites (sea lice). We show that migration tactic frequency for a given set of environmental conditions is strongly influenced by the intersex genetic correlation, such that one sex can be dragged off its optimum more than the other. When this occurred in females in our model, population productivity was substantially reduced, but eco-evolutionary outcomes were altered by allowing for sneaking behaviour in males. We discuss real-world implications of our work given that anadromous salmonids are regularly challenged by sea lice infestations, which might act synergistically with other stressors such as climate change or fishing that impact marine performance, driving populations towards residency and potentially reduced resilience.

Directional selection and the evolution of breeding date in birds, revisited: Hard selection and the evolution of plasticity.

The mismatch between when individuals breed and when we think they should breed has been a long-standing problem in evolutionary ecology. Price et al. is a classic theory paper in this field and is mainly cited for its most obvious result: if individuals with high nutritional condition breed early, then the advantage of breeding early may be overestimated when information on nutritional condition is absent. Price at al.'s less obvious result is that individuals, on average, are expected to breed later than the optimum. Here, we provide an explanation of their non-intuitive result in terms of hard selection, and go on to show that neither of their results are expected to hold if the relationship between breeding date and nutrition is allowed to evolve. By introducing the assumption that the advantage of breeding early is greater for individuals in high nutritional condition, we show that their most cited result can be salvaged. However, individuals, on average, are expected to breed earlier than the optimum, not later. More generally, we also show that the hard selection mechanisms that underpin these results have major implications for the evolution of plasticity: when environmental heterogeneity becomes too great, plasticity is selected against, prohibiting the evolution of generalists.

Impact of the Miocene orogenesis on Kaloula spp. radiation and implication of local refugia on genetic diversification.

The phylogeography of the Kaloula genus in East Asia is still poorly understood. One of the difficulties is the absence of fossils to corroborate molecular dating estimates. Here, we examined the mitochondrial structure of Kaloula spp. in East Asia and focused on the impact of glaciations on the northernmost species: Kaloula borealis. We determined the phylogenetic relationships, molecular dating, and genetic connectivity assessments within the genus from 1211 bp of concatenated mitochondrial 12S and 16S. The relaxed clock analyses reveal the emergence of Kaloula spp. common ancestor in East and Southeast Asia between the Eocene and Oligocene, c. 38.47 Ma (24.69-53.65). The genetic diversification of lineages then increased on the East Asian Mainland during the Lower Miocene, c. 20.10 (8.73-30.65), most likely originating from the vicariance and radiation triggered by the orogeny of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Later, the dispersal towards the North East Asian Mainland during the Upper Miocene drove the population diversification of K. borealis c. 9.01 Ma (3.66-15.29). Finally, the central mainland population became isolated following orogenesis events and diverged into K. rugifera during the Pliocene, c. 3.06 Ma (0.02-10.90). The combination of population genetic and barrier analyses revealed a significant genetic isolation between populations of Kaloula spp. matching with the massive Qinling-Daba Mountain chain located in south-central China. Finally, we highlight a young divergence within the Eastern Mainland population of K. borealis, possibly attributed to refugia in south eastern China from which populations later expanded.

Aspergillus fumigatus causing vertebral osteomyelitis in an immunocompetent patient: a case report and literature review.

Aspergillus vertebral osteomyelitis causing deformity in immunocompetent patients is uncommon. We describe a previously healthy 68-year-old male who was referred after 2 years of lower thoracic back pain and gibbus. His inflammatory markers and HIV test were normal. Imaging demonstrated bony destruction of T12/L1 and L2 with vertebral collapse. Following inconclusive CT-guided biopsy, he underwent reconstructive spinal surgery. Histopathology showed fungi and Aspergillus fumigatus was cultured. He was treated with isavuconazole 200 mg once daily for 12 months with a satisfactory clinical outcome. We present a summary of recently published cases of atraumatic Aspergillus vertebral osteomyelitis in immunocompetent patients without risk factors. Fungal infection should be considered in culture-negative spondylodiscitis, even in the absence of risk factors.

Harnessing Escherichia coli for Bio-Based Production of Formate under Pressurized H2 and CO2 Gases.

Escherichia coli is a Gram-negative bacterium that is a workhorse for biotechnology. The organism naturally performs a mixed-acid fermentation under anaerobic conditions where it synthesizes formate hydrogenlyase (FHL-1). The physiological role of the enzyme is the disproportionation of formate into H2 and CO2. However, the enzyme has been observed to catalyze hydrogenation of CO2 given the correct conditions, and so it has possibilities in bio-based carbon capture and storage if it can be harnessed as a hydrogen-dependent CO2 reductase (HDCR). In this study, an E. coli host strain was engineered for the continuous production of formic acid from H2 and CO2 during bacterial growth in a pressurized batch bioreactor. Incorporation of tungsten, in place of molybdenum, in FHL-1 helped to impose a degree of catalytic bias on the enzyme. This work demonstrates that it is possible to couple cell growth to simultaneous, unidirectional formate production from carbon dioxide and develops a process for growth under pressurized gases. IMPORTANCE Greenhouse gas emissions, including waste carbon dioxide, are contributing to global climate change. A basket of solutions is needed to steadily reduce emissions, and one approach is bio-based carbon capture and storage. Here, we present our latest work on harnessing a novel biological solution for carbon capture. The Escherichia coli formate hydrogenlyase (FHL-1) was engineered to be constitutively expressed. Anaerobic growth under pressurized H2 and CO2 gases was established, and aqueous formic acid was produced as a result. Incorporation of tungsten into the enzyme in place of molybdenum proved useful in poising FHL-1 as a hydrogen-dependent CO2 reductase (HDCR).

Personalized brain stimulation for effective neurointervention across participants.

Accumulating evidence from human-based research has highlighted that the prevalent one-size-fits-all approach for neural and behavioral interventions is inefficient. This approach can benefit one individual, but be ineffective or even detrimental for another. Studying the efficacy of the large range of different parameters for different individuals is costly, time-consuming and requires a large sample size that makes such research impractical and hinders effective interventions. Here an active machine learning technique is presented across participants-personalized Bayesian optimization (pBO)-that searches available parameter combinations to optimize an intervention as a function of an individual's ability. This novel technique was utilized to identify transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) frequency and current strength combinations most likely to improve arithmetic performance, based on a subject's baseline arithmetic abilities. The pBO was performed across all subjects tested, building a model of subject performance, capable of recommending parameters for future subjects based on their baseline arithmetic ability. pBO successfully searches, learns, and recommends parameters for an effective neurointervention as supported by behavioral, simulation, and neural data. The application of pBO in human-based research opens up new avenues for personalized and more effective interventions, as well as discoveries of protocols for treatment and translation to other clinical and non-clinical domains.

Associations between metabolic traits and growth rate in brown trout (Salmo trutta) depend on thermal regime.

Metabolism defines the energetic cost of life, yet we still know relatively little about why intraspecific variation in metabolic rate arises and persists. Spatio-temporal variation in selection potentially maintains differences, but relationships between metabolic traits (standard metabolic rate (SMR), maximum metabolic rate (MMR), and aerobic scope) and fitness across contexts are unresolved. We show that associations between SMR, MMR, and growth rate (a key fitness-related trait) vary depending on the thermal regime (a potential selective agent) in offspring of wild-sampled brown trout from two populations reared for approximately 15 months in either a cool or warm (+1.8°C) regime. SMR was positively related to growth in the cool, but negatively related in the warm regime. The opposite patterns were found for MMR and growth associations (positive in warm, negative in the cool regime). Mean SMR, but not MMR, was lower in warm regimes within both populations (i.e. basal metabolic costs were reduced at higher temperatures), consistent with an adaptive acclimation response that optimizes growth. Metabolic phenotypes thus exhibited a thermally sensitive metabolic 'floor' and a less flexible metabolic 'ceiling'. Our findings suggest a role for growth-related fluctuating selection in shaping patterns of metabolic variation that is likely important in adapting to climate change.

Alternative migratory tactics in brown trout (Salmo trutta) are underpinned by divergent regulation of metabolic but not neurological genes.

The occurrence of alternative morphs within populations is common, but the underlying molecular mechanisms remain poorly understood. Many animals, for example, exhibit facultative migration, where two or more alternative migratory tactics (AMTs) coexist within populations. In certain salmonid species, some individuals remain in natal rivers all their lives, while others (in particular, females) migrate to sea for a period of marine growth. Here, we performed transcriptional profiling ("RNA-seq") of the brain and liver of male and female brown trout to understand the genes and processes that differentiate between migratory and residency morphs (AMT-associated genes) and how they may differ in expression between the sexes. We found tissue-specific differences with a greater number of genes expressed differentially in the liver (n = 867 genes) compared with the brain (n = 10) between the morphs. Genes with increased expression in resident livers were enriched for Gene Ontology terms associated with metabolic processes, highlighting key molecular-genetic pathways underlying the energetic requirements associated with divergent migratory tactics. In contrast, smolt-biased genes were enriched for biological processes such as response to cytokines, suggestive of possible immune function differences between smolts and residents. Finally, we identified evidence of sex-biased gene expression for AMT-associated genes in the liver (n = 12) but not the brain. Collectively, our results provide insights into tissue-specific gene expression underlying the production of alternative life histories within and between the sexes, and point toward a key role for metabolic processes in the liver in mediating divergent physiological trajectories of migrants versus residents.

The ecological causes and consequences of hard and soft selection.

Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary-ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth-underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world.

Evolution and Expression of the Immune System of a Facultatively Anadromous Salmonid.

Vertebrates have evolved a complex immune system required for the identification of and coordinated response to harmful pathogens. Migratory species spend periods of their life-cycle in more than one environment, and their immune system consequently faces a greater diversity of pathogens residing in different environments. In facultatively anadromous salmonids, individuals may spend parts of their life-cycle in freshwater and marine environments. For species such as the brown trout Salmo trutta, sexes differ in their life-histories with females more likely to migrate to sea while males are more likely to stay and complete their life-cycle in their natal river. Salmonids have also undergone a lineage-specific whole genome duplication event, which may provide novel immune innovations but our current understanding of the differences in salmonid immune expression between the sexes is limited. We characterized the brown trout immune gene repertoire, identifying a number of canonical immune genes in non-salmonid teleosts to be duplicated in S. trutta, with genes involved in innate and adaptive immunity. Through genome-wide transcriptional profiling ("RNA-seq") of male and female livers to investigate sex differences in gene expression amplitude and alternative splicing, we identified immune genes as being generally male-biased in expression. Our study provides important insights into the evolutionary consequences of whole genome duplication events on the salmonid immune gene repertoire and how the sexes differ in constitutive immune expression.

Impact of delays to incubation and storage temperature on blood culture results: a multi-centre study.

BACKGROUND: Blood cultures are one of the most important tests performed by microbiology laboratories. Many hospitals, particularly in low and middle-income countries, lack either microbiology services or staff to provide 24 h services resulting in delays to blood culture incubation. There is insufficient guidance on how to transport/store blood cultures if delays before incubation are unavoidable, particularly if ambient temperatures are high. This study set out to address this knowledge gap. METHODS: In three South East Asian countries, four different blood culture systems (two manual and two automated) were used to test blood cultures spiked with five common bacterial pathogens. Prior to incubation the spiked blood culture bottles were stored at different temperatures (25 °C, in a cool-box at ambient temperature, or at 40 °C) for different lengths of time (0 h, 6 h, 12 h or 24 h). The impacts of these different storage conditions on positive blood culture yield and on time to positivity were examined. RESULTS: There was no significant loss in yield when blood cultures were stored < 24 h at 25 °C, however, storage for 24 h at 40 °C decreased yields and longer storage times increased times to detection. CONCLUSION: Blood cultures should be incubated with minimal delay to maximize pathogen recovery and timely result reporting, however, this study provides some reassurance that unavoidable delays can be managed to minimize negative impacts. If delays to incubation ≥ 12 h are unavoidable, transportation at a temperature not exceeding 25 °C, and blind sub-cultures prior to incubation should be considered.

Resolving heterogeneity in transcranial electrical stimulation efficacy for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

While the treatment of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is dominated by pharmacological agents, transcranial electrical stimulation (tES) is gaining attention as an alternative method for treatment. Most current meta-analyses have suggested that tES can improve cognitive functions that are otherwise impaired in ADHD, such as inhibition and working memory, as well as alleviated clinical symptoms. Here we review some of the promising findings in the field of tES. At the same time, we highlight two factors, which hinder the effective application of tES in treating ADHD: 1) the heterogeneity of tES protocols used in different studies; 2) patient profiles influencing responses to tES. We highlight potential solutions for overcoming such limitations, including the use of active machine learning, and provide simulated data to demonstrate how these solutions could also improve the understanding, diagnosis, and treatment of ADHD.

Metabolic traits in brown trout (Salmo trutta) vary in response to food restriction and intrinsic factors.

Metabolic rates vary hugely within and between populations, yet we know relatively little about factors causing intraspecific variation. Since metabolic rate determines the energetic cost of life, uncovering these sources of variation is important to understand and forecast responses to environmental change. Moreover, few studies have examined factors causing intraspecific variation in metabolic flexibility. We explore how extrinsic environmental conditions and intrinsic factors contribute to variation in metabolic traits in brown trout, an iconic and polymorphic species that is threatened across much of its native range. We measured metabolic traits in offspring from two wild populations that naturally show life-history variation in migratory tactics (one anadromous, i.e. sea-migratory, one non-anadromous) that we reared under either optimal food or experimental conditions of long-term food restriction (lasting between 7 and 17 months). Both populations showed decreased standard metabolic rates (SMR-baseline energy requirements) under low food conditions. The anadromous population had higher maximum metabolic rate (MMR) than the non-anadromous population, and marginally higher SMR. The MMR difference was greater than SMR and consequently aerobic scope (AS) was higher in the anadromous population. MMR and AS were both higher in males than females. The anadromous population also had higher AS under low food compared to optimal food conditions, consistent with population-specific effects of food restriction on AS. Our results suggest different components of metabolic rate can vary in their response to environmental conditions, and according to intrinsic (population-background/sex) effects. Populations might further differ in their flexibility of metabolic traits, potentially due to intrinsic factors related to life history (e.g. migratory tactics). More comparisons of populations/individuals with divergent life histories will help to reveal this. Overall, our study suggests that incorporating an understanding of metabolic trait variation and flexibility and linking this to life history and demography will improve our ability to conserve populations experiencing global change.

Captive-bred Atlantic salmon released into the wild have fewer offspring than wild-bred fish and decrease population productivity.

The release of captive-bred animals into the wild is commonly practised to restore or supplement wild populations but comes with a suite of ecological and genetic consequences. Vast numbers of hatchery-reared fish are released annually, ostensibly to restore/enhance wild populations or provide greater angling returns. While previous studies have shown that captive-bred fish perform poorly in the wild relative to wild-bred conspecifics, few have measured individual lifetime reproductive success (LRS) and how this affects population productivity. Here, we analyse data on Atlantic salmon from an intensely studied catchment into which varying numbers of captive-bred fish have escaped/been released and potentially bred over several decades. Using a molecular pedigree, we demonstrate that, on average, the LRS of captive-bred individuals was only 36% that of wild-bred individuals. A significant LRS difference remained after excluding individuals that left no surviving offspring, some of which might have simply failed to spawn, consistent with transgenerational effects on offspring survival. The annual productivity of the mixed population (wild-bred plus captive-bred) was lower in years where captive-bred fish comprised a greater fraction of potential spawners. These results bolster previous empirical and theoretical findings that intentional stocking, or non-intentional escapees, threaten, rather than enhance, recipient natural populations.