Incidence trends of kidney cancer in China from 1990 to 2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Occupational carcinogens, smoking, and obesity are believed to be the main causing agents of kidney cancer. China is undergoing rapid industrialization, and hence the people's lifestyles have witnessed tremendous changes. However, the trend of kidney cancer incidence during the late 20th and early 21st centuries remains unexplored in China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD; 2019) was retrieved for the incidence of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2019. The rates of disease average annual percentage changes (AAPC) were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to assess age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence of the disease simultaneously. RESULTS: An increase in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of kidney cancer was observed from 1990 to 2019 in total residents (1.33 - 4.24), men (1.56 - 6.15), and women (1.11 - 2.31) per 100,000 population suggesting a more obvious increase in males than in females. A consistent increase in age effects was observed in all age groups, especially in males. On the other hand, the 70 - 74 age group in females showed greater age effects. In addition, the period effects analysis showed that the incidence of kidney cancer increased with time. Moreover, the analysis of cohort effects showed a decrease in the disease in birth cohorts, especially before 1940. CONCLUSION: The incidence of kidney cancer is increasing rapidly in China. The kidney cancer burden will rise in the next decades due to population aging, environmental pollution, occupation, food safety, and so on. Results of this study suggest that more etiological studies should be performed to identify the driving factors for kidney cancer trends, and appropriate preventive measures should be implemented for the age-, period-, and cohort-related factors in the population.

Gastric cancer incidence trends in China and Japan from 1990 to 2019: Disentangling age-period-cohort patterns.

BACKGROUND: Recent data have shown divergent trends in gastric cancer (GC) incidence between China and Japan; however, the cause for has not been explored. METHODS: We retrieved GC incidence data from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study, stratified by sex for both countries. We analyzed annual average percentage change (AAPC) via a joinpoint regression model and estimated the effects of age, period, and cohort via the age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence rate trends for GC decreased in both countries and both sexes, but the reduction was more pronounced in Japan because the AAPC for Japanese males (AAPC = -2.65%; 95% CI, -2.98 to -2.32) was eight times greater than that of Chinese males (AAPC = -0.30%; 95% CI, -0.5 to -0.09). The age and cohort effects on the trend are similar in both countries: the risk of GC incidence increased with age among the Chinese and the Japanese but was lower among younger birth cohorts. The two countries showed contrasting trends over the study period; although the risk of GC rapidly decreased for Japanese males and females, it increased by twofold among Chinese males. CONCLUSIONS: The period effect is the main reason for the divergent trends in age-standardized incidence rate for GC in China and Japan. By comparing national cancer control programs in both countries, we concluded that countries with a high prevalence of GC, such as China, can learn from Japan's experience in controlling GC by actively conducting national population screening, which is expected to facilitate both prevention and treatment of GC. LAY SUMMARY: More than one-half of all new gastric cancer (GC) worldwide occur in China and Japan, but the reasons for the different incidence trends have not been thoroughly analyzed. Analysis using the age-period-cohort model confirmed that the cohort effect was the main reason for the decline in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for GC and that the period effect may be the main reason for the divergent trends in gastric cancer ASIR in China and Japan.

Patterns of HIV or AIDS Mortality Among Older People From 1990 to 2019 in China: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND: With the increasing effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy and shifting demographics, the problem of older people with HIV or AIDS is increasingly grim in China, and neglecting infection among them may cause more serious social problems, exacerbate the difficulty of controlling HIV or AIDS transmission, and increase the risk of death. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the variations in the trends of Chinese mortality by age, period, and cohort, from 1990 to 2019, to reveal the relationship between age, period, cohort, and HIV burden, as well as providing guidance for resource allocation to prevent HIV-related deaths in vulnerable target populations. METHODS: We extracted the HIV or AIDS mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease. The joinpoint regression model was applied to detect changes in HIV or AIDS trends. The age-period-cohort model was used to explore the age, period, and cohort effects. RESULTS: The trends in age-standardized mortality rates in HIV or AIDS were increased in both genders, from 0.50 to 4.54/105 individuals for males, and from 0.19 to 1.43/105 individuals for females. Joinpoint regression model showed the average annual percentage change of age-standardized mortality rates was 7.0 for male and 6.4 for female individuals, showing an increasing trend. The age effect of male HIV or AIDS mortality showed a net increase of 0.59 (-0.21 to 0.38) from the ages 50-79 years. There is a gradual upward trend in the change in risk of death from HIV or AIDS for the period effect among the older population, lowest at ages 50-54 years (-0.80 for male and -0.78 for female individuals) and highest at ages 75-79 years (0.86 for male and 0.69 for female individuals). The variation of cohort effects was complex, but both genders had a nearly consistent tendency; people born in 1920-1929 had the lowest cohort effect, and those born in 1950-1954 had the highest values. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed a marked rise in HIV mortality for both genders in China from 1990 to 2019. Aging is an important issue in current HIV prevention and control. There is an urgent need to promote HIV testing and health education. Our findings will help predict future HIV or AIDS mortality changes and identify age-specific priority populations for intervention.

Trend in the incidence of hepatitis A in mainland China from 2004 to 2017: a joinpoint regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: China has experienced a continuous decreasing trend in the incidence of hepatitis A in recent years. Temporal trend analyses are helpful in exploring the reasons for the changing trend. Thus, this study aims to analyse the incidence trend of viral hepatitis A by region and age group in mainland China from 2004 to 2017 to evaluate the effectiveness of prevention and control measures. METHODS: Data on hepatitis A and population information were collected and analysed with a joinpoint regression model. Annual percentage changes (APCs) and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were estimated for the whole country and for each region and age group. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2017, the seasonality and periodicity of hepatitis A case numbers were obvious before 2008 but gradually diminished from 2008 to 2011 and disappeared from 2012-2017. The national incidence of hepatitis A (AAPC = - 12.1%) and the incidence rates for regions and age groups showed decreasing trends, with differences in the joinpoints and segments. Regarding regions, the hepatitis A incidence in the western region was always the highest among all regions, while a nonsignificant rebound was observed in the northeastern region from 2011 to 2017 (APC = 14.2%). Regarding age groups, the hepatitis A incidence showed the fastest decrease among children (AAPC = - 15.3%) and the slowest decrease among elderly individuals (AAPC = - 6.6%). Among all segments, the hepatitis A incidence among children had the largest APC value in 2007-2017, at - 20.4%. CONCLUSION: The national annual incidence of hepatitis A continually declined from 2004 to 2017 and the gaps in hepatitis A incidence rates across different regions and age groups were greatly narrowed. Comprehensive hepatitis A prevention and control strategies, including the use of routine vaccination during childhood in mainland China, especially the implementation of the national Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in 2008, resulted in substantial progress from 2004 to 2017. However, gaps remain. Regular monitoring and analysis of hepatitis A epidemic data and prompt adjustment of hepatitis A prevention and control strategies focusing on children, elderly individuals and those living in certain regions are recommended.

The Distribution of HIV and AIDS Cases in Luzhou, China, From 2011 to 2020: Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The vastly increasing number of reported HIV and AIDS cases in Luzhou, China, in recent years, coupled with the city's unique geographical location at the intersection of 4 provinces, makes it particularly important to conduct a spatiotemporal analysis of HIV and AIDS cases. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to understand the spatiotemporal distribution of HIV and the factors influencing this distribution in Luzhou, China, from 2011 to 2020. METHODS: Data on the incidence of HIV and AIDS in Luzhou from 2011 to 2020 were obtained from the AIDS Information Management System of the Luzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. ArcGIS was used to visualize the spatiotemporal distribution of HIV and AIDS cases. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to investigate factors affecting the spatiotemporal distribution of HIV and AIDS, including the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, urbanization rate, number of hospital beds, population density, and road mileage. RESULTS: The reported incidence of HIV and AIDS rose from 8.50 cases per 100,000 population in 2011 to 49.25 cases per 100,000 population in 2020-an increase of 578.87%. In the first 5 years, hotspots were concentrated in Jiangyang district, Longmatan district, and Luxian county. After 2016, Luzhou's high HIV incidence areas gradually shifted eastward, with Hejiang county having the highest average prevalence rate (41.68 cases per 100,000 population) from 2011 to 2020, being 2.28 times higher than that in Gulin county (18.30 cases per 100,000), where cold spots were concentrated. The risk for the incidence of HIV and AIDS was associated with the urbanization rate, population density, and GDP per capita. For every 1% increase in the urbanization rate, the relative risk (RR) increases by 1.3%, while an increase of 100 people per square kilometer would increase the RR by 8.7%; for every 1000 Yuan (US $148.12) increase in GDP per capita, the RR decreases by 1.5%. CONCLUSIONS: In Luzhou, current HIV and AIDS prevention and control efforts must be focused on the location of each district or county government; we suggest the region balance urban development and HIV and AIDS prevention. Moreover, more attention should be paid to economically disadvantaged areas.