Prevalence of disability improvement as a potential outcome for multiple sclerosis trials.

BACKGROUND: The concept of improvement of disability recently emerged as a new target in multiple sclerosis (MS) studies since the approval of new potent drugs and for testing drugs for neuroprotection and repair. OBJECTIVE: To propose a simple estimator for assessing and comparing the prevalence of improvement over time between groups. METHODS: The prevalence of a transient condition takes into account the incidence and the duration of such condition. We propose here the application of a modified Kaplan-Meier estimator to evaluate and compare between groups the prevalence of improvement over time in a cohort of 121 patients treated with autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. RESULTS: The prevalence of improvement after 5 years from transplant was 50.3% (95%CI: [38.0-63.0]) in relapsing-remitting patients and 6.5% (95%CI: [0-17.8]) in secondary-progressive patients (p < 0.001). Such a difference wouldn't be evident considering the traditional cumulative probability of improvement at 5 years (55.5% in relapsing-remitting vs 33.4% in secondary-progressive patients, p = 0.10). CONCLUSION: This study shows the relevance of a new estimator of prevalence of improvement in MS. This estimator gives simple information on whether a drug can induce a durable improvement in disability and can be considered a potential outcome for trials assessing drugs for neuroprotection or repair.

First therapy choice in newly diagnosed Multiple Sclerosis patients: A multicenter Italian study.

BACKGROUND: The approval of an increasing number of disease modifying drugs for the treatment of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) creates new challenges for patients and clinicians on the first treatment choice. The main aim of this study was to assess factors impacting first therapy choice in a large Italian MS cohort. METHODS: Newly diagnosed relapsing-remitting (RR) MS patients (2010-2018) followed in 24 Italian MS centres were included in the study. We evaluated the association of baseline demographics, clinical and MRI characteristics to the first treatment choice by logistic regression models applied to pre-defined binary alternatives: dimethyl fumarate vs injectables (interferon and glatiramer acetate), teriflunomide vs injectables, fingolimod vs dimethyl fumarate and fingolimod vs natalizumab. RESULTS: We enrolled 3025 patients in the period between January 2010 and June 2018. Relapses in the previous year (OR = 2.75; p = 0.001), presence of spinal cord lesions (OR = 1.80; p = 0.002) and higher number (>9) of T2 lesions on the baseline brain MRI scan (OR = 1.65; p = 0.022) were the factors associated to dimethyl fumarate choice as first therapy vs an injectable drug. Older age (OR = 1.06; p < 0.001), male sex (OR = 2.29; p = 0.001) and higher EDSS (OR = 1.36; p < 0.001) were the factors associated with the choice of teriflunomide vs injectables. In more recent years, dimethyl fumarate (OR = 3.23; p < 0.001) and teriflunomide (OR = 2.53; p < 0.001) were chosen more frequently than injectables therapies. The main determinant for the choice of fingolimod as compared with dimethyl fumarate was a higher EDSS (OR = 1.56; p = 0.001), while there was a weak association with a longer disease duration (p = 0.068) and a longer time from onset to diagnosis (p = 0.085). Compared to fingolimod, natalizumab was preferred in patients with a younger age (OR = 0.95; p = 0.003) and higher EDSS (OR = 1.45; p = 0.007) and a shorter disease duration (OR = 0.52; p = 0.076). CONCLUSION: Many factors guided therapeutic decision for our Italian cohort of MS patients; they are mainly related to MS disease activity, baseline EDSS, disease duration and age.

Determinants of therapy switch in multiple sclerosis treatment-naïve patients: A real-life study.

BACKGROUND: With many options now available, first therapy choice is challenging in multiple sclerosis (MS) and depends mainly on neurologist and patient preferences. OBJECTIVES: To identify prognostic factors for early switch after first therapy choice. METHODS: Newly diagnosed relapsing-remitting MS patients from 24 Italian centers were included. We evaluated the association of baseline demographics, clinical, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data to the switch probability for lack of efficacy or intolerance/safety with a multivariate Cox analysis and estimated switch rates by competing risks models. RESULTS: We enrolled 3025 patients. The overall switch frequency was 48% after 3 years. Switch risk for lack of efficacy was lower with fingolimod (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.50; p = 0.009), natalizumab (HR = 0.13; p < 0.001), dimethyl-fumarate (HR = 0.60; p = 0.037), teriflunomide (HR = 0.21; p = 0.031) as compared to interferons. Younger age (HR = 0.96; p < 0.001), diagnosis delay (HR = 1.23; p = 0.021), higher baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale (HR = 1.17; p = 0.001), and spinal cord lesions (HR = 1.46; p = 0.001) were independently associated with higher inefficacy switch rates. We found lower switch for intolerance/safety with glatiramer acetate (HR = 0.61; p = 0.001), fingolimod (HR = 0.35; p = 0.002), and dimethyl-fumarate (HR = 0.57; p = 0.022) as compared to interferons, while it increased with natalizumab (HR = 1.43; p = 0.022). Comorbidities were associated with intolerance switch (HR = 1.28; p = 0.047). CONCLUSION: Several factors are associated with higher switch risk in patients starting a first-line therapy and could be integrated in the decision-making process of first treatment choice.

Assessing association of comorbidities with treatment choice and persistence in MS: A real-life multicenter study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the presence of concomitant diseases at multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnosis is associated with the choice and the treatment persistence in an Italian MS cohort. METHODS: We included newly diagnosed patients (2010-2016) followed in 20 MS centers and collected demographic and clinical data. We evaluated baseline factors related to the presence of comorbidities and the association between comorbidities and the clinical course of MS and the time to the first treatment switch. RESULTS: The study cohort included 2,076 patients. Data on comorbidities were available for 1,877/2,076 patients (90.4%). A total of 449/1,877 (23.9%) patients had at least 1 comorbidity at MS diagnosis. Age at diagnosis (odds ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.06; p < 0.001) was the only baseline factor independently related to the presence of comorbidities. Comorbidities were not significantly associated with the choice of the first disease-modifying treatment, but were significantly associated with higher risk to switch from the first treatment due to intolerance (hazard ratio 1.42, CI 1.07-1.87; p = 0.014). Association of comorbidities with risk of switching for intolerance was significantly heterogeneous among treatments (interferon ß, glatiramer acetate, natalizumab, or fingolimod; interaction test, p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidities at diagnosis should be taken into account at the first treatment choice because they are associated with lower persistence on treatment.