Prospective cohort study of influenza vaccine effectiveness among healthcare personnel in Lima, Peru: Estudio Vacuna de Influenza Peru, 2016-2018.

BACKGROUND: The Estudio Vacuna de Influenza Peru (VIP) cohort aims to describe the frequency of influenza virus infection, identify predictors of vaccine acceptance, examine the effects of repeated influenza vaccination on immunogenicity, and evaluate influenza vaccine effectiveness among HCP. METHODS: The VIP cohort prospectively followed HCP in Lima, Peru, during the 2016-2018 influenza seasons; a fourth year is ongoing. Participants contribute blood samples before and after the influenza season and after influenza vaccination (for vaccinees). Weekly surveillance is conducted to identify acute respiratory or febrile illnesses (ARFI). When an ARFI is identified, participants self-collect nasal swabs that are tested for influenza viruses by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. Influenza vaccination status and 5-year vaccination history are ascertained. We analyzed recruitment and enrollment results for 2016-2018 and surveillance participation for 2016-2017. RESULTS: In the first 3 years of the cohort, VIP successfully contacted 92% of potential participants, enrolled 76% of eligible HCP, and retained >90% of participants across years. About half of participants are medical assistants (54%), and most provide "hands-on" medical care (76%). Sixty-nine percent and 52% of participants completed surveillance for >70% of weeks in years 1 and 2, respectively. Fewer weeks of completed surveillance was associated with older age (≥50 years), being a medical assistant, self-rated health of fair or poor, and not receiving the influenza vaccine during the current season (P-values < .05). CONCLUSIONS: The VIP cohort provides an opportunity to address knowledge gaps about influenza virus infection, vaccination uptake, effectiveness and immunogenicity among HCP.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against Pediatric Deaths: 2010-2014.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated pediatric deaths since 2004 has shown that most deaths occur in unvaccinated children. We assessed whether influenza vaccination reduced the risk of influenza-associated death in children and adolescents. METHODS: We conducted a case-cohort analysis comparing vaccination uptake among laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated pediatric deaths with estimated vaccination coverage among pediatric cohorts in the United States. Case vaccination and high-risk status were determined by case investigation. Influenza vaccination coverage estimates were obtained from national survey data or a national insurance claims database. We estimated odds ratios from logistic regression comparing odds of vaccination among cases with odds of vaccination in comparison cohorts. We used Bayesian methods to compute 95% credible intervals (CIs) for vaccine effectiveness (VE), calculated as (1 - odds ratio) × 100. RESULTS: From July 2010 through June 2014, 358 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported among children aged 6 months through 17 years. Vaccination status was determined for 291 deaths; 75 (26%) received vaccine before illness onset. Average vaccination coverage in survey cohorts was 48%. Overall VE against death was 65% (95% CI, 54% to 74%). Among 153 deaths in children with underlying high-risk medical conditions, 47 (31%) were vaccinated. VE among children with high-risk conditions was 51% (95% CI, 31% to 67%), compared with 65% (95% CI, 47% to 78%) among children without high-risk conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination was associated with reduced risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated pediatric death. Increasing influenza vaccination could prevent influenza-associated deaths among children and adolescents.

The case test-negative design for studies of the effectiveness of influenza vaccine in inpatient settings.

Background: The test-negative design (TND) to evaluate influenza vaccine effectiveness is based on patients seeking care for acute respiratory infection, with those who test positive for influenza as cases and the test-negatives serving as controls. This design has not been validated for the inpatient setting where selection bias might be different from an outpatient setting. Methods: We derived mathematical expressions for vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations and used numerical simulations to verify theoretical results exploring expected biases under various scenarios. We explored meaningful interpretations of VE estimates from inpatient TND studies. Results: VE estimates from inpatient TND studies capture the vaccine-mediated protection of the source population against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations. If vaccination does not modify disease severity, these estimates are equivalent to VE against influenza virus infection. If chronic cardiopulmonary individuals are enrolled because of non-infectious exacerbation, biased VE estimates (too high) will result. If chronic cardiopulmonary disease status is adjusted for accurately, the VE estimates will be unbiased. If chronic cardiopulmonary illness cannot be adequately be characterized, excluding these individuals may provide unbiased VE estimates. Conclusions: The inpatient TND offers logistic advantages and can provide valid estimates of influenza VE. If highly vaccinated patients with respiratory exacerbation of chronic cardiopulmonary conditions are eligible for study inclusion, biased VE estimates will result unless this group is well characterized and the analysis can adequately adjust for it. Otherwise, such groups of subjects should be excluded from the analysis.

Deaths averted by influenza vaccination in the U.S. during the seasons 2005/06 through 2013/14.

BACKGROUND: Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is substantial, yet quantitative estimates of the benefit of annual vaccination programs on influenza-associated mortality are lacking. METHODS: We estimated the numbers of deaths averted by vaccination in four age groups (0.5 to 4, 5 to 19, 20 to 64 and ≥65 yrs.) for the nine influenza seasons from 2005/6 through 2013/14. These estimates were obtained using a Monte Carlo approach applied to weekly U.S. age group-specific estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, monthly vaccination coverage estimates and summary seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates to obtain estimates of the number of deaths averted by vaccination. The estimates are conservative as they do not include indirect vaccination effects. RESULTS: From August, 2005 through June, 2014, we estimated that 40,127 (95% confidence interval [CI] 25,694 to 59,210) deaths were averted by influenza vaccination. We found that of all studied seasons the most deaths were averted by influenza vaccination during the 2012/13 season (9398; 95% CI 2,386 to 19,897) and the fewest during the 2009/10 pandemic (222; 95% CI 79 to 347). Of all influenza-associated deaths averted, 88.9% (95% CI 83 to 92.5%) were in people ≥65 yrs. old. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated number of deaths averted by the US annual influenza vaccination program is considerable, especially among elderly adults and even when vaccine effectiveness is modest, such as in the 2012/13 season. As indirect effects ("herd immunity") of vaccination are ignored, these estimates represent lower bound estimates and are thus conservative given valid excess mortality estimates.

Effectiveness of seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine for preventing influenza virus illness among pregnant women: a population-based case-control study during the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 influenza seasons.

BACKGROUND: Although vaccination with trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) is recommended for all pregnant women, no vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies of TIV in pregnant women have assessed laboratory-confirmed influenza outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study over 2 influenza seasons (2010-2011 and 2011-2012) among Kaiser Permanente health plan members in 2 metropolitan areas in California and Oregon. We compared the proportion vaccinated among 100 influenza cases (confirmed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) with the proportions vaccinated among 192 controls with acute respiratory illness (ARI) who tested negative for influenza and 200 controls without ARI (matched by season, site, and trimester). RESULTS: Among influenza cases, 42% were vaccinated during the study season compared to 58% and 63% vaccinated among influenza-negative controls and matched ARI-negative controls, respectively. The adjusted VE of the current season vaccine against influenza A and B was 44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5%-67%) using the influenza-negative controls and 53% (95% CI, 24%-72%) using the ARI-negative controls. Receipt of the prior season's vaccine, however, had an effect similar to receipt of the current season's vaccine. As such, vaccination in either or both seasons had statistically similar adjusted VE using influenza-negative controls (VE point estimates range = 51%-76%) and ARI-negative controls (48%-76%). CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination reduced the risk of ARI associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza among pregnant women by about one-half, similar to VE observed among all adults during these seasons.