Making waves: Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in an endemic future.

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has been widely used as a public health tool to monitor the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections in populations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Coincident with the global vaccination efforts, the world is also enduring new waves of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Reinfections and vaccine breakthroughs suggest an endemic future where SARS-CoV-2 continues to persist in the general population. In this treatise, we aim to explore the future roles of wastewater surveillance. Practically, WBS serves as a relatively affordable and non-invasive tool for mass surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 infection while minimizing privacy concerns, attributes that make it extremely suited for its long-term usage. In an endemic future, the utility of WBS will include 1) monitoring the trend of viral loads of targets in wastewater for quantitative estimate of changes in disease incidence; 2) sampling upstream for pinpointing infections in neighborhoods and at the building level; 3) integrating wastewater and clinical surveillance for cost-efficient population surveillance; and 4) genome sequencing wastewater samples to track circulating and emerging variants in the population. We further discuss the challenges and future developments of WBS to reduce inconsistencies in wastewater data worldwide, improve its epidemiological inference, and advance viral tracking and discovery as a preparation for the next viral pandemic.

Metrics to relate COVID-19 wastewater data to clinical testing dynamics.

Wastewater surveillance has emerged as a useful tool in the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. While wastewater surveillance has been applied at various scales to monitor population-level COVID-19 dynamics, there is a need for quantitative metrics to interpret wastewater data in the context of public health trends. 24-hour composite wastewater samples were collected from March 2020 through May 2021 from a Massachusetts wastewater treatment plant and SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations were measured using RT-qPCR. The relationship between wastewater copy numbers of SARS-CoV-2 gene fragments and COVID-19 clinical cases and deaths varies over time. We demonstrate the utility of three new metrics to monitor changes in COVID-19 epidemiology: (1) the ratio between wastewater copy numbers of SARS-CoV-2 gene fragments and clinical cases (WC ratio), (2) the time lag between wastewater and clinical reporting, and (3) a transfer function between the wastewater and clinical case curves. The WC ratio increases after key events, providing insight into the balance between disease spread and public health response. Time lag and transfer function analysis showed that wastewater data preceded clinically reported cases in the first wave of the pandemic but did not serve as a leading indicator in the second wave, likely due to increased testing capacity, which allows for more timely case detection and reporting. These three metrics could help further integrate wastewater surveillance into the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic and future pandemics.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater foreshadow dynamics and clinical presentation of new COVID-19 cases.

Current estimates of COVID-19 prevalence are largely based on symptomatic, clinically diagnosed cases. The existence of a large number of undiagnosed infections hampers population-wide investigation of viral circulation. Here, we quantify the SARS-CoV-2 concentration and track its dynamics in wastewater at a major urban wastewater treatment facility in Massachusetts, between early January and May 2020. SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in wastewater on March 3. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater correlated with clinically diagnosed new COVID-19 cases, with the trends appearing 4-10 days earlier in wastewater than in clinical data. We inferred viral shedding dynamics by modeling wastewater viral load as a convolution of back-dated new clinical cases with the average population-level viral shedding function. The inferred viral shedding function showed an early peak, likely before symptom onset and clinical diagnosis, consistent with emerging clinical and experimental evidence. This finding suggests that SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater may be primarily driven by viral shedding early in infection. This work shows that longitudinal wastewater analysis can be used to identify trends in disease transmission in advance of clinical case reporting, and infer early viral shedding dynamics for newly infected individuals, which are difficult to capture in clinical investigations.

Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 across 40 U.S. states from February to June 2020.

Wastewater-based disease surveillance is a promising approach for monitoring community outbreaks. Here we describe a nationwide campaign to monitor SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater of 159 counties in 40 U.S. states, covering 13% of the U.S. population from February 18 to June 2, 2020. Out of 1,751 total samples analyzed, 846 samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, with overall viral concentrations declining from April to May. Wastewater viral titers were consistent with, and appeared to precede, clinical COVID-19 surveillance indicators, including daily new cases. Wastewater surveillance had a high detection rate (>80%) of SARS-CoV-2 when the daily incidence exceeded 13 per 100,000 people. Detection rates were positively associated with wastewater treatment plant catchment size. To our knowledge, this work represents the largest-scale wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 monitoring campaign to date, encompassing a wide diversity of wastewater treatment facilities and geographic locations. Our findings demonstrate that a national wastewater-based approach to disease surveillance may be feasible and effective.

Metrics to relate COVID-19 wastewater data to clinical testing dynamics.

Wastewater surveillance has emerged as a useful tool in the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. While wastewater surveillance has been applied at various scales to monitor population-level COVID-19 dynamics, there is a need for quantitative metrics to interpret wastewater data in the context of public health trends. We collected 24-hour composite wastewater samples from March 2020 through May 2021 from a Massachusetts wastewater treatment plant and measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations using RT-qPCR. We show that the relationship between wastewater viral titers and COVID-19 clinical cases and deaths varies over time. We demonstrate the utility of three new metrics to monitor changes in COVID-19 epidemiology: (1) the ratio between wastewater viral titers and clinical cases (WC ratio), (2) the time lag between wastewater and clinical reporting, and (3) a transfer function between the wastewater and clinical case curves. We find that the WC ratio increases after key events, providing insight into the balance between disease spread and public health response. We also find that wastewater data preceded clinically reported cases in the first wave of the pandemic but did not serve as a leading indicator in the second wave, likely due to increased testing capacity. These three metrics could complement a framework for integrating wastewater surveillance into the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic and future pandemics.

Wastewater Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 across 40 U.S. states.

Wastewater-based disease surveillance is a promising approach for monitoring community outbreaks. Here we describe a nationwide campaign to monitor SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater of 159 counties in 40 U.S. states, covering 13% of the U.S. population from February 18 to June 2, 2020. Out of 1,751 total samples analyzed, 846 samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, with overall viral concentrations declining from April to May. Wastewater viral titers were consistent with, and appeared to precede, clinical COVID-19 surveillance indicators, including daily new cases. Wastewater surveillance had a high detection rate (>80%) of SARS-CoV-2 when the daily incidence exceeded 13 per 100,000 people. Detection rates were positively associated with wastewater treatment plant catchment size. To our knowledge, this work represents the largest-scale wastewater-based SARS-CoV-2 monitoring campaign to date, encompassing a wide diversity of wastewater treatment facilities and geographic locations. Our findings demonstrate that a national wastewater-based approach to disease surveillance may be feasible and effective.

SARS-CoV-2 titers in wastewater foreshadow dynamics and clinical presentation of new COVID-19 cases.

Current estimates of COVID-19 prevalence are largely based on symptomatic, clinically diagnosed cases. The existence of a large number of undiagnosed infections hampers population-wide investigation of viral circulation. Here, we use longitudinal wastewater analysis to track SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in wastewater at a major urban wastewater treatment facility in Massachusetts, between early January and May 2020. SARS-CoV-2 was first detected in wastewater on March 3. Viral titers in wastewater increased exponentially from mid-March to mid-April, after which they began to decline. Viral titers in wastewater correlated with clinically diagnosed new COVID-19 cases, with the trends appearing 4-10 days earlier in wastewater than in clinical data. We inferred viral shedding dynamics by modeling wastewater viral titers as a convolution of back-dated new clinical cases with the viral shedding function of an individual. The inferred viral shedding function showed an early peak, likely before symptom onset and clinical diagnosis, consistent with emerging clinical and experimental evidence. Finally, we found that wastewater viral titers at the neighborhood level correlate better with demographic variables than with population size. This work suggests that longitudinal wastewater analysis can be used to identify trends in disease transmission in advance of clinical case reporting, and may shed light on infection characteristics that are difficult to capture in clinical investigations, such as early viral shedding dynamics.

False cyanide formation during drinking water sample preservation and storage.

Carefully controlled bench-scale and on-site experiments demonstrated that cyanide can form in the treated drinking water sample container during preservation and storage. In the bench-scale experiment, treated tap water samples were collected on 20 days over six months. The tap water samples were split and some of the splits were spiked with formaldehyde, a known ozone disinfection byproduct, held for three hours and tested for cyanide. Then they were preserved and held for 2-10 days. None of the 69 initial samples had cyanide detects, but 22 of 49 formaldehyde-spiked samples and three of the 20 unspiked samples developed detectable cyanide concentrations during storage. In the on-site experiment, six samples were collected at a finished water tap at an ozone/chloramination treatment plant over three days. Each sample was split, and a portion was spiked with formaldehyde. Each portion was analyzed in triplicate after three different procedures: (1) immediately distilled on-site, (2) stabilized on-site in a distillation tube and distilled back at the laboratory several days later, or (3) following the conventional procedure of preserving the sample to pH > 12 in a container and distilling the sample back at the laboratory. Only the samples handled in the conventional way had detectable amounts of cyanide. Both experiments demonstrated that cyanide can form during conventional preservation and storage, and it is likely that the cyanide detected for this treated drinking water was formed in the sample container as a consequence of the preservation and storage conditions.