Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in childhood and adolescent cancer care in northern Tanzania: a cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has strained healthcare systems and presented unique challenges for children requiring cancer care, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on access to cancer care for children and adolescents in Northern Tanzania. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we assessed the demographic and clinical characteristics of 547 pediatric and adolescent cancer patients (ages 0-19 years old) between 2016 and 2022 using the population-based Kilimanjaro Cancer Registry (KCR). We categorized data into pre-COVID-19 (2016-2019) and COVID-19 (2020-2022) eras, and performed descriptive analyses of diagnostic, treatment, and demographic information. A secondary analysis was conducted on a subset of 167 patients with stage of diagnosis at presentation. RESULTS: Overall admissions nearly doubled during the pandemic (n = 190 versus 357). The variety of diagnoses attended at KCMC increased during the pandemic, with only five groups of diseases reported in 2016 to twelve groups of diseases in 2021. Most patients were diagnosed at a late stage (stage III or IV) across eras, with the proportion of under-five years old patients increasing late-diagnoses from 29.4% (before the pandemic), 52.8% (during the pandemic), when compared to the overall cohort. Around 95% of children in this age category reported late-stage diagnosis during the pandemic. Six out of the twelve cancer site groups also reported an increase in late-stage diagnosis. During the pandemic, the proportion of children receiving surgery increased from 15.8 to 30.8% (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Childhood and adolescent cancer care changed in Northern Tanzania during the COVID-19 pandemic, with increased late-stage diagnoses presentations among younger patients and the increased use of surgical therapies in the context of a growing practice. Understanding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pediatric and adolescent cancer care can help us better adapt healthcare systems and interventions to the emerging needs of children and adolescents with cancer in the midst of a health crisis.

Contemporary trends in choledochal cyst excision: An analysis of the pediatric national surgical quality improvement program.

BACKGROUND: Choledochal cysts are rare congenital anomalies of the biliary tree that may lead to obstruction, chronic inflammation, infection, and malignancy. There is wide variation in the timing of resection, operative approach, and reconstructive techniques. Outcomes have rarely been compared on a national level. METHODS: We queried the Pediatric National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) to identify patients who underwent choledochal cyst excision from 2015 to 2020. Patients were stratified by hepaticoduodenostomy (HD) versus Roux-en-Y hepaticojejunostomy (RNYHJ), use of minimally invasive surgery (MIS), and age at surgery. We collected several outcomes, including length of stay (LOS), reoperation, complications, blood transfusions, and readmission rate. We compared outcomes between cohorts using nonparametric tests and multivariate regression. RESULTS: Altogether, 407 patients met the study criteria, 150 (36.8%) underwent RNYHJ reconstruction, 100 (24.6%) underwent MIS only, and 111 (27.3%) were less than one year old. Patients who underwent open surgery were younger (median age 2.31 vs. 4.25 years, p = 0.002) and more likely underwent RNYHJ reconstruction (42.7% vs. 19%, p = 0.001). On adjusted analysis, the outcomes of LOS, reoperation, transfusion, and complications were similar between the type of reconstruction, operative approach, and age. Patients undergoing RNYHJ had lower rates of readmission than patients undergoing HD (4.0% vs. 10.5%, OR 0.34, CI [0.12, 0.79], p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: In children with choledochal cysts, most short-term outcomes were similar between reconstructive techniques, operative approach, and age at resection, although HD reconstruction was associated with a higher readmission rate in this study. Clinical decision-making should be driven by long-term and biliary-specific outcomes.

Modeling the global impact of reducing out-of-pocket costs for children's surgical care.

Over 1.7 billion children lack access to surgical care, mostly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), with substantial risks of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) and impoverishment. Increasing interest in reducing out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures as a tool to reduce the rate of poverty is growing. However, the impact of reducing OOP expenditures on CHE remains poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to estimate the global impact of reducing OOP expenditures for pediatric surgical care on the risk of CHE within and between countries. Our goal was to estimate the impact of reducing OOP expenditures for surgical care in children for 149 countries by modeling the risk of CHE under various scale-up scenarios using publicly available World Bank data. Scenarios included reducing OOP expenditures from baseline levels to paying 70%, 50%, 30%, and 10% of OOP expenditures. We also compared the impact of these reductions across income quintiles (poorest, poor, middle, rich, richest) and differences by country income level (low-income, lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, and high-income countries).Reducing OOP expenditures benefited people from all countries and income quintiles, although the benefits were not equal. The risk of CHE due to a surgical procedure for children was highest in low-income countries. An unexpected observation was that upper-middle income countries were at higher risk for CHE than LMICs. The most vulnerable regions were Africa and Latin America. Across all countries, the poorest quintile had the greatest risk for CHE. Increasing interest in financial protection programs to reduce OOP expenditures is growing in many areas of global health. Reducing OOP expenditures benefited people from all countries and income quintiles, although the benefits were not equal across countries, wealth groups, or even by wealth groups within countries. Understanding these complexities is critical to develop appropriate policies to minimize the risks of poverty.

Defining Feasibility as a Criterion for Essential Surgery: A Qualitative Study with Global Children's Surgery Experts.

BACKGROUND: The Disease Control Priorities (DCP-3) group defines surgery as essential if it addresses a significant burden, is cost-effective, and is feasible-yet the feasibility component remains largely unexplored. The aim of this study was to develop a precise definition of feasibility for essential surgical procedures for children. METHODS: Four online focus group discussions (FGDs) were organized among 19 global children's surgery providers with experience of working in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), representing 10 countries. FGDs were transcribed verbatim, and qualitative data analysis was performed. Codes, categories, themes, and subthemes were identified. RESULTS: Six determinants of feasibility were identified, including: adequate human resources; adequate material resources; procedure and disease complexity; team commitment and understanding of their setting; timely access to care; and the ability to monitor and achieve good outcomes. Factors unique to feasibility of children's surgery included children's right to health and their reliance on adults for accessing safe and timely care; the need for specialist workforce; and children's unique perioperative care needs. FGD participants reported a greater need for task-sharing and shifting, creativity, and adaptability in resource-limited settings. Resource availability was seen to have a direct impact on decision-making and prioritization, e.g., saving a life versus achieving the best outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The identification of a precise definition of feasibility serves as a pivotal step in identifying a list of essential surgical procedures for children, which would serve as indicators of institutional surgical capacity for this age group.

Childhood and Adolescent Cancer Care at a Tertiary Hospital in Northern Tanzania: A Retrospective Study.

PURPOSE: Over 400,000 children are diagnosed with cancer around the world each year, with over 80% of these children residing in low- and middle-income countries. This study aims to summarize the epidemiology and care patterns of newly diagnosed childhood cancer patients in Northern Tanzania. METHODS: Data from all children and adolescents (age 0-19 years) with newly diagnosed cancers were collected from the Kilimanjaro Cancer Registry located at the Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre. Descriptive and inferential analyses were used to compare the demographic and clinical characteristics of the participants over time, stage, and status at last contact. Statistical significance was set at P < .05. Secondary descriptive analysis was conducted on a subset sample with available staging data. RESULTS: A total of 417 patients were diagnosed with cancer between 2016 and 2021. There was an increase in the rate of patients with newly diagnosed pediatric cancer each year, particularly among children under age 5 years and 10 years. Leukemias and lymphomas were the leading diagnoses and accounted for 183 (43.8%) of all patients. Over 75% of patients were diagnosed at stage III or above. From a subset analysis of patients with available staging data (n = 101), chemotherapy was the most common treatment (87.1%), compared with radiotherapy and surgery. CONCLUSION: There is a significant burden of children with cancer in Tanzania. Our study fills crucial gaps in the literature related to the large burden of disease and survival for children with cancer in the Kilimanjaro region. Furthermore, our results can be used to understand the regional needs and guide research and strategic interventions to improve childhood cancer survival in Northern Tanzania.

Does reducing out-of-pocket costs for children's surgical care protect families from poverty in Somaliland? A cross-sectional, national, economic evaluation modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: An estimated 1.7 billion children around the world do not have access to safe, affordable and timely surgical care, with the financing through out-of-pocket (OOP) expenses being one of the main barriers to care. Our study modelled the impact of reducing OOP costs related to surgical care for children in Somaliland on the risk of catastrophic expenditures and impoverishment. DESIGN AND SETTING: This cross-sectional nationwide economic evaluation modelled several different approaches to reduction of paediatric OOP surgical costs in Somaliland. PARTICIPANTS AND OUTCOME MEASURES: A surgical record review of all procedures on children up to 15 years old was conducted at 15 surgically capable hospitals. We modelled two rates of OOP cost reduction (reduction of OOP proportion from 70% to 50% and from 70% to 30% reduction in OOP costs) across five wealth quintiles (poorest, poor, neutral, rich, richest) and two geographical areas (urban and rural). The outcome measures of the study are catastrophic expenditures and risk of impoverishment due to surgery. We followed the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards. RESULTS: We found that the risk of catastrophic and impoverishing expenditures related to OOP expenditures for paediatric surgery is high across Somaliland, but most notable in the rural areas and among the poorest quintiles. Reducing OOP expenses for surgical care to 30% would protect families in the richest wealth quintiles while minimally affecting the risk of catastrophic expenditure and impoverishment for those in the lowest wealth quintiles, particularly those in rural areas. CONCLUSION: Our models suggest that the poorest communities in Somaliland lack protection against the risk of catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment, even if OOP payments are reduced to 30% of surgical costs. A comprehensive financial protection in addition to reduction of OOP costs is required to prevent risk of impoverishment in these communities.

With equity in mind: Evaluating an interactive hybrid global surgery course for cross-site interdisciplinary learners.

There is limited understanding of the role of transcultural, cross-site educational partnerships for global surgery training between high- and low- or middle-income country (LMIC) institutions. We describe the development, delivery, and appraisal of a hybrid, synchronous, semester-long Global Surgical Care course by global health collaborators from widely different contexts, and evaluate the equity of the collaboration. The course was collaboratively modified by surgical educators and public health professionals with emphasis on collaboration ethics. Faculty from high-income and LMICs were paired to deliver lectures. To collaborate internationally, students and faculty participated either onsite or online. Perceptions and knowledge gained were quantitatively evaluated through participant and faculty cross-sectional surveys, using Likert scales, prioritization rankings, and free text responses analysed qualitatively. Equity was assessed using the Fair Trade Learning rubric and additional probes. Thirty-five learners from six institutions participated. Teams produced mock National, Surgical, Obstetric, and Anaesthesia Plans (NSOAPs) for selected LMICs, and reported a 9% to 65% increase in self-reported global health competencies following the course. Online learners had favourable perceptions of learning, but experienced connectivity challenges. Barriers to effective group work included time differences and logistics of communication for dispersed team members. Individuals taking the course for academic credit scored significantly higher than other learners in peer assessments of participation (8.56±1.53 versus 5.03±3.14; p<0.001). Using the Fair Trade Rubric, 60% of equity indicators were ideal, and no respondents perceived neo-colonialism in the partnership. Blended, synchronous, interdisciplinary global surgery courses based on "North-South" partnerships with a focus on equity in design and delivery are feasible but require careful and deliberate planning to minimize epistemic injustice. Such programs should address surgical systems strengthening, and not create dependency. Equity in such engagements should be evaluated and monitored in an ongoing fashion to stimulate discussion and continuous improvement.

Delays in cancer care for children in low-income and middle-income countries: development of a composite vulnerability index.

BACKGROUND: Early access to diagnosis and care is essential to improve rates of survival from childhood cancer, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Composite indices are increasingly used to compare country performance in many health fields. We aimed to develop a composite vulnerability index of risk of mortality associated with delays in care for childhood cancer in LMICs, and to compare the vulnerability index scores across countries. METHODS: The composite vulnerability index was built in ten steps. A previous systematic review of determinants of delays in cancer care for children guided data selection. We collected exposure variables (determinants of delays in care) and outcome variables (childhood cancer-related mortality) from several large datasets. Data were analysed with regression models to identify determinants of delays in care that contribute to childhood cancer mortality. Significant indicators were aggregated into domains according to the socio-ecological model. We used geospatial tools to summarise and compare the composite vulnerability index scores across countries. FINDINGS: We found that life expectancy, maternal education, fertility rate, availability of pathology services, bone marrow transplantation capacity, availability of treatment services (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, or surgery), number of pharmacists per 10 000 population, country income level, and out-of-pocket health expenditure were significantly associated with cancer mortality for children in LMICs. The highest levels of vulnerability were found in sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION: Our composite vulnerability index can potentially serve as a valuable policy decision tool to help monitor country performance and guide interventions to reduce delays in care for children with cancer in LMICs. FUNDING: None. TRANSLATIONS: For the Chinese, Portuguese, Arabic, Spanish and Swahili translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Determinants of delayed childhood cancer care in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review.

Early access to care is essential to improve survival rates for childhood cancer. This study evaluates the determinants of delays in childhood cancer care in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) through a systematic review of the literature. We proposed a novel Three-Delay framework specific to childhood cancer in LMICs by summarizing 43 determinants and 24 risk factors of delayed cancer care from 95 studies. Traditional medicine, household income, lack of transportation, rural population, parental education, and travel distance influenced most domains of our framework. Our novel framework can be used as a policy tool toward improving cancer care and outcomes for children in LMICs.

Assessing the cost and economic impact of tertiary-level pediatric cancer care in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, an estimated 400,000 children develop cancer each year. The bulk of the mortalities from these cases occur in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs). In Sub-Saharan Africa, there is a tremendous need to strengthen the capacity of health systems to provide high-quality cancer care for children. However, a lack of data on the economic impact of cancer treatment in low-resource settings hinders its consideration as a healthcare priority. To address this gap, this study models the clinical and financial impact of pediatric cancer care in Tanzania, a lower-middle income country in East Africa. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective review of patients with cancer under the age of 19 years treated at Bugando Medical Centre from January 2010 to August 2014. Information was collected from a total of 161 children, including demographics, type of cancer, care received, and five-year survival outcomes. This data was used to calculate the number of averted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) with treatment. Charges for all direct medical costs, fixed provider costs, and variable provider costs were used to calculate total cost of care. The societal economic impact of cancer treatment was modeled using the value of statistical life (VSL) and human capital methods. FINDINGS: The total health impact for these 161 children was 819 averted DALYs at a total cost of $846,743. The median cost per patient was $5,064 ($4,746-5,501 interquartile range). The societal economic impact of cancer treatment ranged from $590,534 to $3,647,158 using VSL method and $1,776,296 using a human capital approach. INTERPRETATION: Despite the limitations of existing treatment capacity, economic modeling demonstrates a positive economic impact from providing pediatric cancer care in Tanzania. As many countries like Tanzania progress towards achieving Universal Health Coverage, these key economic indicators may encourage future investment in comprehensive pediatric cancer care programs in low-resource settings to achieve clinically and economically beneficial results not only for the individual patients, but for the country as a whole.

Modeling the Scale-up of Surgical Services for Children with Surgically Treatable Congenital Conditions in Somaliland.

BACKGROUND: Congenital conditions comprise a significant portion of the global burden of surgical conditions in children. In Somaliland, over 250,000 children do not receive required surgical care annually, although the estimated costs and benefits of scale-up of children's surgical services to address this disease burden is not known. METHODS: We developed a Markov model using a decision tree template to project the costs and benefits of scale-up of surgical care for children across Somaliland. We used a proxy set of congenital anomalies across Somaliland to estimate scale-up costs using three different scale-up rates. The cost-effectiveness ratio and net societal monetary benefit were estimated using these models, supported by disability weights in existing literature. RESULTS: Overall, we found that scale-up of surgical services at an aggressive rate (22.5%) over a 10-year time horizon is cost effective. Although the scale-up of surgical care for most conditions in the proxy set was cost effective, scale-up of hydrocephalus and spina bifida are not as cost effective as other conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis concludes that it is cost effective to scale-up surgical services for congenital anomalies for children in Somaliland.

Defining Surgical Workforce Density Targets to Meet Child and Neonatal Mortality Rate Targets in the Age of the Sustainable Development Goals: A Global Cross-Sectional Study.

OBJECTIVES: To reduce preventable deaths of newborns and children, the United Nations set a target rate per 1000 live births of 12 for neonatal mortality (NMR) and 25 for under-5 mortality (U5MR). The purpose of this paper is to define the minimum surgical workforce needed to meet these targets and evaluate the relative impact of increasing surgeon, anesthesia, and obstetrician (SAO) density on reducing child mortality. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 192 countries to define the association between surgical workforce density and U5MR as well as NMR using unadjusted and adjusted B-spline regression, adjusting for common non-surgical causes of childhood mortality. We used these models to estimate the minimum surgical workforce to meet the sustainable development goals (SDGs) for U5MR and NMR and marginal effects plots to determine over which range of SAO densities the largest impact is seen as countries scale-up SAO workforce. RESULTS: We found that increased SAO density is associated with decreased U5MR and NMR (P < 0.05), adjusting for common non-surgical causes of child mortality. A minimum SAO density of 10 providers per 100,000 population (95% CI: 7-13) is associated with an U5MR of < 25 per 1000 live births. A minimum SAO density of 12 (95% CI: 9-20) is associated with an NMR of < 12 per 1000 live births. The maximum decrease in U5MR, on the basis of our adjusted B-spline model, occurs from 0 to 20 SAO per 100,000 population. The maximum decrease in NMR based on our adjusted B-spline model occurs up from 0 to 18 SAO, with additional decrease seen up to 80 SAO. CONCLUSIONS: Scale-up of the surgical workforce to 12 SAO per 100,000 population may help health systems meet the SDG goals for childhood mortality rates. Increases in up to 80 SAO/100,000 continue to offer mortality benefit for neonates and would help to achieve the SDGs for neonatal mortality reduction.

Factors contributing to delayed childhood cancer care in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Significant disparities exist for timely access to cancer care for children, with the highest disparities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aims to conduct a systematic review that identifies the factors contributing to delayed care of childhood cancers in LMICs. METHODS: We will conduct a systematic review with search strings compliant with the PICO framework: (1) the Population-children (aged 0-18 years) from LMICs; (2) the Exposure-factors contributing to timely childhood cancer care; (3) the Outcome-delays in childhood cancer care. DISCUSSION: Our study is an essential step to guide strategic interventions to assess the myriad of factors that prevent children from accessing timely cancer care in LMICs. The results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and shared with institutions related to the field.

Surgical Site Infection in Children with Neuromuscular Disorders after Laparoscopic Gastrostomy: A Propensity-Matched National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Pediatrics Database Analysis.

Background: Prior studies have demonstrated that children with neuromuscular scoliosis have a higher incidence of infection after spine surgery. The purpose of the study is to determine whether children with neuromuscular disorders (NMDs) have higher rate of superficial surgical site infection (SSI) or increased hospital length of stay (LOS) compared with children without NMDs following laparoscopic gastrostomy creation, a common pediatric general surgery operation. Patients and Methods: We performed a retrospective propensity-matched analysis of laparoscopic gastrostomy creation in children from National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Pediatrics database (NSQIP-P) 2018-2019. Patients were stratified based on NMD status. We performed multivariable logistic regression and ordered logistic regression to estimate the odds ratio of superficial SSI within 30 days of surgery and increased LOS. Results: We screened 252,367 patients from the NSQIP-P 2018-2019 dataset. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria and 1:1 propensity score-matching, there were 991 children with NMDs and 991 children without NMDs. Children with NMDs had higher prevalence of superficial SSI within 30 days of gastrostomy creation: 36 (3.63%) versus 18 (1.82%); p = 0.013. Children with NMDs had increased odds of having a superficial SSI within 30 days of laparoscopic gastrostomy tube (G-tube) placement compared with children without NMD (odds ratio [OR], 2.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-3.58; p = 0.018). There was no difference in LOS based on NMD status. Conclusion: Children with NMDs have two-fold increased odds of superficial SSI after laparoscopic gastrostomy creation compared with children without NMDs. Children with NMDs should be the aim of targeted quality improvement initiatives to reduce infection risks.

Biliary atresia in a neonate with a history of COVID-19: A case report.

INTRODUCTION AND IMPORTANCE: Biliary Atresia is the progressive destruction of the neonatal intra- and extra- hepatic bile ducts. The novel coronavirus has shown dramatic hepatic tropism, and patients experiencing liver injury appear to have worse outcomes. We present the first documented case of a neonate diagnosed with Biliary Atresia and a prior history of COVID-19. CASE PRESENTATION: A two-month-old female presented with increasing scleral icterus. Her laboratory testing demonstrated direct hyperbilirubinemia, with elevated alkaline phosphatase and increased ALT. She tested positive for COVID-19 at that time, requiring a two-week quarantine during which time she did not develop respiratory symptoms. Two weeks later, she presented to the hospital with emesis and an evaluation concerning for biliary atresia. She ultimately underwent a Kasai repair and recovered well with no significant post-operative complications. CLINICAL DISCUSSION: Biliary Atresia is a heterogenous disease of unknown etiology, though viral triggers are suggested to contribute. COVID-19 disease is frequently associated with liver damage, though its relationship to Biliary Atresia is unexplored. We present a case of a neonate who contracted COVID-19 infection, and subsequently developed biliary atresia. CONCLUSION: Considering this child's concurrent COVID-19 infection, viral mediated hepatic and biliary inflammation may have contributed to the development of Biliary Atresia in this case. The proposed relationship requires additional investigation but may suggest value in COVID-19 testing for patients presenting with Biliary Atresia.

Challenges with pediatric surgical financing and universal health coverage in Guatemala: A qualitative analysis.

The financing of surgical care for children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) remains challenging and may restrict adherence to universal health coverage (UHC) frameworks. Our aims were to describe Guatemala's national pediatric surgical financing structure, to identify financing challenges, and to develop recommendations to improve the financing of surgical care for children. We conducted a qualitative study of the financing of surgical care for children in Guatemala's public health system with key informant interviews (n = 20) with experts in the medical, financial, and political health sectors. We used this data to generate recommendations to improve surgical care financing for children. We identified several systemic challenges to the financing of surgical care for children, including passive purchasing structures, complex political contexts, health system fragmentation, widespread use of informal fees for surgical services, and lack of earmarked funding for surgical care. Patient and provider challenges include lack of provider input in non-personnel funding decisions, and patients functioning as both financing agents and beneficiaries in the same financing stream. Key recommendations include reducing health finance system fragmentation through resource pooling, increasing earmarked funding for surgical care with quantifiable outcome measures, engagement with clinical providers in non-personnel budgetary decision-making, and use of innovative financing instruments such as resource pooling. Surgical financing for children in Guatemala requires substantial remodeling to increase access to timely, affordable, and safe surgical care and improve alignment with Guatemala's UHC scheme.

Association between government policy and delays in emergent and elective surgical care during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of public health policy to reduce the spread of COVID-19 on access to surgical care is poorly defined. We aim to quantify the surgical backlog during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Brazilian public health system and determine the relationship between state-level policy response and the degree of state-level delays in public surgical care. METHODS: Monthly estimates of surgical procedures performed per state from January 2016 to December 2020 were obtained from Brazil's Unified Health System Informatics Department. Forecasting models using historical surgical volume data before March 2020 (first reported COVID-19 case) were constructed to predict expected monthly operations from March through December 2020. Total, emergency, and elective surgical monthly backlogs were calculated by comparing reported volume to forecasted volume. Linear mixed effects models were used to model the relationship between public surgical delivery and two measures of health policy response: the COVID-19 Stringency Index (SI) and the Containment & Health Index (CHI) by state. FINDINGS: Between March and December 2020, the total surgical backlog included 1,119,433 (95% Confidence Interval 762,663-1,523,995) total operations, 161,321 (95%CI 37,468-395,478) emergent operations, and 928,758 (95%CI 675,202-1,208,769) elective operations. Increased SI and CHI scores were associated with reductions in emergent surgical delays but increases in elective surgical backlogs. The maximum government stringency (score = 100) reduced emergency delays to nearly zero but tripled the elective surgical backlog. INTERPRETATION: Strong health policy efforts to contain COVID-19 ensure minimal reductions in delivery of emergent surgery, but dramatically increase elective backlogs. Additional coordinated government efforts will be necessary to specifically address the increased elective backlogs that accompany stringent responses.

Geospatial analysis of pediatric surgical need and geographical access to care in Somaliland: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of disease in children is large and disproportionally affects low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Geospatial analysis offers powerful tools to quantify and visualise disparities in surgical care in LMICs. Our study aims to analyse the geographical distribution of paediatric surgical conditions and to evaluate the geographical access to surgical care in Somaliland. METHODS: Using the Surgeons OverSeas Assessment of Surgical Need survey and a combined survey from the WHO's (WHO) Surgical Assessment Tool-Hospital Walkthrough and the Global Initiative for Children's Surgery Global Assessment in Paediatric Surgery, we collected data on surgical burden and access from 1503 children and 15 hospitals across Somaliland. We used several geospatial tools, including hotspot analysis, service area analysis, Voronoi diagrams, and Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation to estimate the geographical distribution of paediatric surgical conditions and access to care across Somaliland. RESULTS: Our analysis suggests less than 10% of children have timely access to care across Somaliland. Patients could travel up to 12 hours by public transportation and more than 2 days by foot to reach surgical care. There are wide geographical disparities in the prevalence of paediatric surgical conditions and access to surgical care across regions. Disparities are greater among children travelling by foot and living in rural areas, where the delay to receive surgery often exceeds 3 years. Overall, Sahil and Sool were the regions that combined the highest need and the poorest surgical care coverage. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated wide disparities in the distribution of surgical disease and access to surgical care for children across Somaliland. Geospatial analysis offers powerful tools to identify critical areas and strategically allocate resources and interventions to efficiently scale-up surgical care for children in Somaliland.