Use of whole genome sequencing to estimate the contribution of immune evasion and waning immunity to decreasing COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness during alpha and delta variant waves

BackgroundThe decline in COVID-19 mRNA vaccine effectiveness (VE) is well established, however the impact of variant-specific immune evasion and waning protection remains unclear. Here, we use whole-genome-sequencing (WGS) to tease apart the contribution of these factors on the decline observed following the introduction of the Delta variant. Further, we evaluate the utility of calendar-period-based variant classification as an alternative to WGS. MethodsWe conducted a test-negative-case-control study among people who received SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing in the Yale New Haven Health System between April 1 and August 24, 2021. Variant classification was performed using WGS and secondarily by calendar-period. We estimated VE as one minus the ratio comparing the odds of infection among vaccinated and unvaccinated people. ResultsOverall, 2,029 cases (RT-PCR positive, sequenced samples) and 343,985 controls (negative RT-PCRs) were included. VE 14-89 days after 2nd dose was significantly higher against WGS-classified Alpha infection (84.4%, 95% confidence interval: 75.6-90.0%) than Delta infection (68.9%, CI: 58.0-77.1%, p-value: 0.013). The odds of WGS-classified Delta infection were significantly higher 90-149 than 14-89 days after 2nd dose (Odds ratio: 1.6, CI: 1.2-2.3). While estimates of VE against calendar-period-classified infections approximated estimates against WGS-classified infections, calendar-period-based classification was subject to outcome misclassification (35% during Alpha period, 4% during Delta period). ConclusionsThese findings suggest that both waning protection and variant-specific immune evasion contributed to the lower effectiveness. While estimates of VE against calendar-period-classified infections mirrored that against WGS-classified infections, our analysis highlights the need for WGS when variants are co-circulating and misclassification is likely. Summary of main pointsUsing whole genome sequencing, we provide direct evidence of waning vaccine effectiveness and variant-specific immune evasion during the Delta wave. Effectiveness estimates against calendar-period-classified infections approximated estimates against WGS-classified infections, however, calendar-period classification was associated with a variant misclassification.

Viral population genomics reveals host and infectivity impact on SARS-CoV-2 adaptive landscape

Public health surveillance, drug treatment development, and optimization of immunological interventions all depend on understanding pathogen adaptation, which differ for specific pathogens. SARS-CoV-2 is an exceptionally successful human pathogen, yet complete understanding of the forces driving its evolution is lacking. Here, we leveraged almost four million SARS-CoV-2 sequences originating mostly from non-vaccinated naive patients to investigate the impact of functional constraints and natural immune pressures on the sequence diversity of the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Overall, we showed that the SARS-CoV-2 genome is under strong and intensifying levels of purifying selection with a minority of sites under diversifying pressure. With a particular focus on the spike protein, we showed that sites under selection were critical for protein stability and virus fitness related to increased infectivity and/or reduced neutralization by convalescent sera. We investigated the genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 B and T cell epitopes and determined that the currently known T cell epitope sequences were highly conserved. Outside of the spike protein, we observed that mutations under selection in variants of concern can be associated to beneficial outcomes for the virus. Altogether, the results yielded a comprehensive map of all sites under selection across the entirety of SARS-CoV-2 genome, highlighting targets for future studies to better understand the virus spread, evolution and success.

In vitro and in vivo preclinical studies predict REGEN-COV protection against emergence of viral escape in humans

Monoclonal antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 are a clinically validated therapeutic option against COVID-19. As rapidly emerging virus mutants are becoming the next major concern in the fight against the global pandemic, it is imperative that these therapeutic treatments provide coverage against circulating variants and do not contribute to development of treatment emergent resistance. To this end, we investigated the sequence diversity of the spike protein and monitored emergence of minor virus variants in SARS-COV-2 isolates found in COVID-19 patients or identified from preclinical in vitro and in vivo studies. This study demonstrates that a combination of non-competing antibodies, REGEN-COV, not only provides full coverage against current variants of concern/interest but also protects against emergence of new such variants and their potential seeding into the population in a clinical setting.

REGN-COV2 antibody cocktail prevents and treats SARS-CoV-2 infection in rhesus macaques and hamsters

An urgent global quest for effective therapies to prevent and treat COVID-19 disease is ongoing. We previously described REGN-COV2, a cocktail of two potent neutralizing antibodies (REGN10987+REGN10933) targeting non-overlapping epitopes on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. In this report, we evaluate the in vivo efficacy of this antibody cocktail in both rhesus macaques and golden hamsters and demonstrate that REGN-COV-2 can greatly reduce virus load in lower and upper airway and decrease virus induced pathological sequalae when administered prophylactically or therapeutically. Our results provide evidence of the therapeutic potential of this antibody cocktail.

SARS-CoV-2 infection leads to acute infection with dynamic cellular and inflammatory flux in the lung that varies across nonhuman primate species

There are no known cures or vaccines for COVID-19, the defining pandemic of this era. Animal models are essential to fast track new interventions and nonhuman primate (NHP) models of other infectious diseases have proven extremely valuable. Here we compare SARS-CoV-2 infection in three species of experimentally infected NHPs (rhesus macaques, baboons, and marmosets). During the first 3 days, macaques developed clinical signatures of viral infection and systemic inflammation, coupled with early evidence of viral replication and mild-to-moderate interstitial and alveolar pneumonitis, as well as extra-pulmonary pathologies. Cone-beam CT scans showed evidence of moderate pneumonia, which progressed over 3 days. Longitudinal studies showed that while both young and old macaques developed early signs of COVID-19, both groups recovered within a two-week period. Recovery was characterized by low-levels of viral persistence in the lung, suggesting mechanisms by which individuals with compromised immune systems may be susceptible to prolonged and progressive COVID-19. The lung compartment contained a complex early inflammatory milieu with an influx of innate and adaptive immune cells, particularly interstitial macrophages, neutrophils and plasmacytoid dendritic cells, and a prominent Type I-interferon response. While macaques developed moderate disease, baboons exhibited prolonged shedding of virus and extensive pathology following infection; and marmosets demonstrated a milder form of infection. These results showcase in critical detail, the robust early cellular immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection, which are not sterilizing and likely impact development of antibody responses. Thus, various NHP genera recapitulate heterogeneous progression of COVID-19. Rhesus macaques and baboons develop different, quantifiable disease attributes making them immediately available essential models to test new vaccines and therapies.