Water column productivity and temperature predict coral reef regeneration across the Indo-Pacific.

Predicted increases in seawater temperatures accelerate coral reef decline due to mortality by heat-driven coral bleaching. Alteration of the natural nutrient environment of reef corals reduces tolerance of corals to heat and light stress and thus will exacerbate impacts of global warming on reefs. Still, many reefs demonstrate remarkable regeneration from past stress events. This paper investigates the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) and water column productivity on recovery of coral reefs. In 71 Indo-Pacific sites, coral cover changes over the past 1-3 decades correlated negative-exponentially with mean SST, chlorophyll a, and SST rise. At six monitoring sites (Persian/Arabian Gulf, Red Sea, northern and southern Galápagos, Easter Island, Panama), over half of all corals were <31 years, implying that measured environmental variables indeed shaped populations and community. An Indo-Pacific-wide model suggests reefs in the northwest and central Indian Ocean, as well as the central west Pacific, are at highest risk of degradation, and those at high latitudes the least. The model pinpoints regions where coral reefs presently have the best chances for survival. However, reefs best buffered against temperature and nutrient effects are those that current studies suggest to be most at peril from future ocean acidification.

Corals from the Persian/Arabian Gulf as models for thermotolerant reef-builders: prevalence of clade C3 Symbiodinium, host fluorescence and ex situ temperature tolerance.

Corals in the Arabian/Persian Gulf endure summer temperatures of up to 36°C, making them ideal subjects to study the mechanisms underlying thermal tolerance. Unexpectedly, we found the "generalist" Symbiodinium clade C3 to be the prevalent symbiont among seven coral species from Abu Dhabi (UAE) waters. Moreover, C3 represented the only dominant symbiont type in Porites spp. from this region. The "thermotolerant" symbionts D1a and C15 were not encountered, indicating that the association with these symbionts cannot be the sole reason for the heat tolerance of Gulf corals. The association of Porites lobata with specific symbiont types (C3 vs. C15) in samples from habitats with very different temperature regimes (Abu Dhabi vs. Fiji) remained unaffected by laboratory culture. During temperature stress experiments specimens from both locations strongly downregulated green fluorescent protein (GFP)-like pigments. However, the Abu Dhabi samples were less prone to bleaching and showed lower mortality.

Reefs and islands of the Chagos Archipelago, Indian Ocean: why it is the world's largest no-take marine protected area.

The Chagos Archipelago was designated a no-take marine protected area (MPA) in 2010; it covers 550 000 km2, with more than 60 000 km2 shallow limestone platform and reefs. This has doubled the global cover of such MPAs.It contains 25-50% of the Indian Ocean reef area remaining in excellent condition, as well as the world's largest contiguous undamaged reef area. It has suffered from warming episodes, but after the most severe mortality event of 1998, coral cover was restored after 10 years.Coral reef fishes are orders of magnitude more abundant than in other Indian Ocean locations, regardless of whether the latter are fished or protected.Coral diseases are extremely low, and no invasive marine species are known.Genetically, Chagos marine species are part of the Western Indian Ocean, and Chagos serves as a 'stepping-stone' in the ocean.The no-take MPA extends to the 200 nm boundary, and. includes 86 unfished seamounts and 243 deep knolls as well as encompassing important pelagic species.On the larger islands, native plants, coconut crabs, bird and turtle colonies were largely destroyed in plantation times, but several smaller islands are in relatively undamaged state.There are now 10 'important bird areas', coconut crab density is high and numbers of green and hawksbill turtles are recovering.Diego Garcia atoll contains a military facility; this atoll contains one Ramsar site and several 'strict nature reserves'. Pollutant monitoring shows it to be the least polluted inhabited atoll in the world. Today, strict environmental regulations are enforced.Shoreline erosion is significant in many places. Its economic cost in the inhabited part of Diego Garcia is very high, but all islands are vulnerable.Chagos is ideally situated for several monitoring programmes, and use is increasingly being made of the archipelago for this purpose.

The most temperature-adapted corals have an Achilles' Heel.

The corals of the Persian/Arabian Gulf are better adapted to temperature fluctuations than elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific. The Gulf is an extreme marine environment displaying the highest known summer water temperatures for any reef area. The small and shallow sea can be considered a good analogue to future conditions for the rest of the world's oceans under global warming. The fact that corals can persist in such a demanding environment indicates that they have been able to acclimatize and selectively adapt to elevated temperature. The implication being that colonies elsewhere may be able to follow suit. This in turn provides hope that corals may, given sufficient time, similarly adapt to survive even in an impoverished form, under conditions of acidification-driven lowering of CaCO3 saturation state, a further consequence of raised atmospheric CO2. This paper demonstrates, however, that the uniquely adapted corals of the Gulf may, within the next three centuries, be threatened by a chronic habitat shortage brought about by the dissolution of the lithified seabed on which they rely for colonisation. This will occur due to modifications in the chemical composition of the Gulf waters due to climate change.

Crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes.

Expert opinion was canvassed to identify crucial knowledge gaps in current understanding of climate change impacts on coral reef fishes. Scientists that had published three or more papers on the effects of climate and environmental factors on reef fishes were invited to submit five questions that, if addressed, would improve our understanding of climate change effects on coral reef fishes. Thirty-three scientists provided 155 questions, and 32 scientists scored these questions in terms of: (i) identifying a knowledge gap, (ii) achievability, (iii) applicability to a broad spectrum of species and reef habitats, and (iv) priority. Forty-two per cent of the questions related to habitat associations and community dynamics of fish, reflecting the established effects and immediate concern relating to climate-induced coral loss and habitat degradation. However, there were also questions on fish demographics, physiology, behaviour and management, all of which could be potentially affected by climate change. Irrespective of their individual expertise and background, scientists scored questions from different topics similarly, suggesting limited bias and recognition of a need for greater interdisciplinary and collaborative research. Presented here are the 53 highest-scoring unique questions. These questions should act as a guide for future research, providing a basis for better assessment and management of climate change impacts on coral reefs and associated fish communities.

Monitored and modeled coral population dynamics and the refuge concept.

With large-scale impacts on coral reefs due to global climatic change projected to increase dramatically, and suitability of many areas for reef growth projected to decrease, the question arises whether particular settings might serve as refugia that can maintain higher coral populations than surrounding areas. We examine this hypothesis on a small, local scale in Honduras, western Caribbean. Dense coral thickets containing high numbers of the endangered coral Acropora cervicornis occur on offshore banks while being rare on the fringing reef on nearby Roatán. Geomorphological setting and community dynamics were evaluated and monitored from 1996 to 2005. A model of population dynamics was developed to test assumptions derived from monitoring. Coral cover on the fringing reef declined in 1998 from >30% to <20%, but the banks maintained areas of very dense coral cover (32% cover by A. cervicornis on the banks but <1% on the fringing reef). Bathymetry from satellite images showed the banks to be well-separated from the fringing reef, making asexual connectivity between banks and fringing reef impossible but protecting the banks from direct land-runoff during storms. Exposure to SE tradewinds also causes good flushing. Only four A. cervicornis recruits were recorded on the fringing reef over 6 years. Runoff associated with hurricanes caused greater mortality than did bleaching in 1998 and 2005 on the fringing reef, but not on the banks. Since 1870, our analysis suggests that corals on the banks may have been favored during 17 runoff events associated with tropical depressions and storms and potentially also during five bleaching events, but this is more uncertain. Our model suggests that under this disturbance regime, the banks will indeed maintain higher coral populations than the fringing reef and supports the assumption that offshore banks could serve as refugia with the capacity to subsidize depleted mainland populations.

Determination of the distribution of shallow-water seagrass and drift algae communities with acoustic seafloor discrimination

The spatial distribution of seagrass and algae communities can be difficult to determine in large, shallow lagoon systems where high turbidity prevents the use of optical methods like aerial photography or satellite imagery. Further complications can arise when algae are not permanently attached to the substratum and drift with tides and currents. A study using acoustic seafloor discrimination was conducted in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida, USA) to determine the extent of drift algae and seagrass. Acoustic surveys using the QTC View V system based on 50 and 200 kHz transducers were conducted near Sebastian Inlet. Results indicate that areas of seagrass can be identified, and are mixed with a high abundance of drift algae. Nearest-neighbor extrapolation was used to fill in spaces between survey lines and thus obtain spatially cohesive maps. These maps were then ground-truthed using data from towed video and compared using confusion matrices, The maps showed a high level of agreement (60%) with the actual distribution of algae, however some confusion existed between bare sand and algae as well as seagrass

Assessing the accuracy of acoustic seabed classification for mapping coral reef environments in South Florida (Broward County, USA)

The Atlantic coast of Broward County, Florida (USA) is paralleled by a series of progressively deeper, shore-parallel coral reef communities. Two of these reef systems are drowned early Holocene coral reefs of 5 ky and 7 ky uncorrected radiocarbon age. Despite the case of access to these reefs, and their major contribution to the local economy, accurate benthic habitat maps of the area are not available. Ecological studies have shown that different benthic communities (i.e. communities composed of different biological taxa) exist along several spatial gradients on all reefs. Since these studies are limited by time and spatial extent, acoustic surveys with the QTCView V bottom classification system based on a 50 kHz transducer were used as an alternative method of producing habitat maps. From the acoustic data of a 3.1 km(2) survey area, spatial prediction maps were created for the area. These were compared with habitat maps interpreted from in situ data and Laser Airborne Depth Sounder (LADS) bathymetry, in order to ground-truth the remotely sensed data. An error matrix was used to quantitatively determine the accuracy of the acoustically derived spatial prediction model against the maps derived from the in situ and LADS data sets. Confusion analysis of 100 random points showed that the system was able to distinguish areas of reef from areas of rubble and sand with an overall accuracy of 61%. When asked to detect more subtle spatial differences, for example, those between distinct reef communities, the classification was only about 40% accurate. We discuss to what degree a synthesis of acoustic and in situ techniques can provide accurate habitat maps in coral reef environments, and conclude that acoustic methods were able to reflect the spatial extent and composition of at least three different biological communities.

Determination of the distribution of shallow-water seagrass and drift algae communities with acoustic seafloor discrimination.

The spatial distribution of seagrass and algae communities can be difficult to determine in large, shallow lagoon systems where high turbidity prevents the use of optical methods like aerial photography or satellite imagery. Further complications can arise when algae are not permanently attached to the substratum and drift with tides and currents. A study using acoustic seafloor discrimination was conducted in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida, USA) to determine the extent of drift algae and seagrass. Acoustic surveys using the QTC View V system based on 50 and 200 kHz transducers were conducted near Sebastian Inlet. Results indicate that areas of seagrass can be identified, and are mixed with a high abundance of drift algae. Nearest-neighbor extrapolation was used to fill in spaces between survey lines and thus obtain spatially cohesive maps. These maps were then ground-truthed using data from towed video and compared using confusion matrices, The maps showed a high level of agreement (60%) with the actual distribution of algae, however some confusion existed between bare sand and algae as well as seagrass.