Cardiac Operative Risk in Latin America: A Comparison of Machine Learning Models vs EuroSCORE-II.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning is a useful tool for predicting medical outcomes. This study aimed to develop a machine learning-based preoperative score to predict cardiac surgical operative mortality. METHODS: We developed various models to predict cardiac operative mortality using machine learning techniques and compared each model to European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation-II (EuroSCORE-II) using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and precision-recall (PR) curves (ROC AUC and PR AUC) as performance metrics. The model calibration in our population was also reported with all models and in high-risk groups for gradient boosting and EuroSCORE-II. This study is a retrospective cohort based on a prospectively collected database from July 2008 to April 2018 from a single cardiac surgical center in Bogotá, Colombia. RESULTS: Model comparison consisted of hold-out validation: 80% of the data were used for model training, and the remaining 20% of the data were used to test each model and EuroSCORE-II. Operative mortality was 6.45% in the entire database and 6.59% in the test set. The performance metrics for the best machine learning model, gradient boosting (ROC: 0.755; PR: 0.292), were higher than those of EuroSCORE-II (ROC: 0.716, PR: 0.179), with a P value of .318 for the AUC of the ROC and .137 for the AUC of the PR. CONCLUSIONS: The gradient boosting model was more precise than EuroSCORE-II in predicting mortality in our population based on ROC and PR analyses, although the difference was not statistically significant.

Native mitral valve endocarditis associated with KPC producing Serratia marcescens bacteremia successfully treated with mitral valve replacement and ceftazidime-avibactam.

Consistent with global trends of infections due to multiple-drug resistant Gram-negative bacteria, we report the first official case of native mitral valve endocarditis due to multi-resistant Klebsiella Pneumonia Carbapenemase (KPC) producing Serratia marcescens. The patient underwent mitral valve replacement and was successfully treated with monotherapy ceftazidime-avibactam.

Giant Intrapericardial bronchogenic cyst associated with congestive heart failure and atrial fibrillation: a case report.

BACKGROUND: Large intracardiac bronchogenic cysts are rare mediastinal masses. However, they must always be considered in the differential diagnosis of heart failure with abnormal chest X-ray. CASE PRESENTATION: We present a 60-year-old female patient with de novo atrial fibrillation, heart failure and a very large intrapericardial mass. The patient underwent successful surgical resection, with pathological findings confirming a bronchogenic cyst. CONCLUSIONS: Large bronchogenic cysts located intrapericardially are very rare. However, they should be included in the differential diagnosis of patients presenting with atrial fibrillation and heart failure with abnormal radiologic studies.

Herniorrafia inguinal abierta versus laparoscópica y con nuevos materiales protésicos: análisis de su efectividad clínica y económica para el paciente, el hospital y el sistema sanitari o / Open versus laparoscopic herniorrhaphy with new prosthetic materials: analysis of clinical and economic effectiveness for the patient, the hospital and the health care system

Introducción. El abordaje laparoscópico ha demostrado beneficios clínicos frente al abierto en la herniorrafia inguinal, sin embargo, su costo-efectividad es controversial. En ambos, la utilización de mallas de baja densidad ofrece menor dolor posoperatorio, regreso temprano a la actividad laboral y mejor calidad de vida, en comparación con las de alta densidad. En Colombia, no existe información sobre el costo-efectividad del abordaje laparoscópico en comparación con el abierto, ni con el uso de mallas de baja densidad. Objetivo. Comparar cuatro alternativas posibles de herniorrafia, con base en la técnica y en el tipo de mallas, identificando el impacto económico de la intervención por intermedio de un análisis de costo-efectividad. Métodos. Se hizo un análisis retrospectivo de pacientes económicamente activos con hernia inguinal unilateral primaria sometidos a herniorrafia abierta con mallas de alta densidad en el periodo 2005-2010. A partir de los costos institucionales, se simularon los costos de tres diferentes procedimientos (herniorrafia abierta con malla de baja densidad, herniorrafia transabdominal preperitoneal con malla de baja densidad y herniorrafia transabdominal preperitoneal con malla de alta densidad) y se compararon con el tradicional. Resultados. Se incluyeron 505 pacientes sometidos a herniorrafia abierta con mallas de alta densidad, con un promedio de 12,3 días de incapacidad médica. El costo total por paciente fue de Col$ 1'129.443 (directo: Col$ 689.443; indirecto: Col$ 440.000). Los costos simulados para cada tipo de herniorrafia fueron: abierta con malla de baja densidad, Col$ 1'214.000 (directo: Col$ 774.000; indirecto: Col$ 440.000); transabdominal preperitoneal con malla de alta densidad, Col$ 2'484.000 (directo: Col$ 2'198.000; indirecto: Col$ 286.000); y transabdominal preperitoneal con malla de baja densidad, Col$ 2'570.000 (directo: Col$ 2'284 000; indirecto: Col$ 286.000). El mayor costo de la laparoscopia se encuentra asociado al uso de algunos insumos (grapadora, bisturí armónico). En Colombia, el valor ideal para considerar costo-efectivo el abordaje laparoscópico con malla de baja densidad es de Col$ 1'276.000. Conclusiones. En Colombia, la herniorrafia laparoscópica inguinal por vía transabdominal preperitoneal no es una intervención costo-efectiva. Teniendo en cuenta los grandes beneficios para el paciente y frente a los avances tecnológicos actuales, es indispensable el ajuste de los costos directos por parte de la industria y la negociación de nuevas políticas entre los actores del sistema.

Introduction: Laparoscopic repair (LR) of groin hernias has demonstrated clinical benefits over open repair (OR) (QALY: LR: 0.84; OR: 0.83). However, the cost-effectiveness is controversial. In both techniques, lightweight meshes (LWM) provide less postoperative pain, earlier return to work and better quality of life in comparison with heavyweight meshes (HWM). In Colombia, the OR+HWM has been currently performed, but LR (TAPP and TEP) is increasingly used, although there is no available information on the cost-effectiveness of LR versus OR and LWM. The aim of this study was to compare four scenarios for treatment, based on technique and meshes, in order to identify the economic impact of the intervention through a cost-effective analysis. Methods: Retrospective analysis of economically active patients with primary unilateral hernia subjected to OR+HWM in the period 2005-2010. Three economical scenarios were simulated (OR+LWM, TAPP+LWM and TAPP+HWM) and compared with OR+HWM, based on institutional costs. Direct and indirect costs, cost per QALY gained and incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER) were determinate for the interventions. Return to work in LR was assumed five days less than in OR, according to literature. The intervention was considered cost-effective if QALY value was less than three annual GNP per capita (29.000 USD). Results: 503 patients were subjected to OR+HWM. A mean of 12.3 days before return to normal work was registered. Total cost of treatment per patient was 564 USD (direct: 344; indirect: 220). Cost of treatment per patient on simulated scenarios was: OR+LWM: 607 USD (direct: 387; indirect: 220); TAPP+HWM: 1242 USD (direct: 1099; indirect: 143); and TAPP+LWM: 1285 USD (direct: 1142; indirect: 143). Main direct cost of treatment in LR appeared related to the surgical devices (staplers and harmonic scalpel). ICER for LR groups per QALY gained was highest than reference value (TAPP+HWM: 75.500 USD; TAPP+LWM:79.743 USD). The optimal ICER for LR (TAPP) is 638 USD. Conclusions: LR (TAPP) in Colombia is not a cost-effective treatment for groin hernia. Based on clinical advantages for the patient and facing the technological advances of LR, significant adjustments in direct cost by industry and negotiation policies among health system stakeholders are indispensable. Continuous training among surgeons is critical for the full development of the LR. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of other techniques as TEP in Colombia.