Integration of polygenic and gut metagenomic risk prediction for common diseases.

Multiomics has shown promise in noninvasive risk profiling and early detection of various common diseases. In the present study, in a prospective population-based cohort with ~18 years of e-health record follow-up, we investigated the incremental and combined value of genomic and gut metagenomic risk assessment compared with conventional risk factors for predicting incident coronary artery disease (CAD), type 2 diabetes (T2D), Alzheimer disease and prostate cancer. We found that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) improved prediction over conventional risk factors for all diseases. Gut microbiome scores improved predictive capacity over baseline age for CAD, T2D and prostate cancer. Integrated risk models of PRSs, gut microbiome scores and conventional risk factors achieved the highest predictive performance for all diseases studied compared with models based on conventional risk factors alone. The present study demonstrates that integrated PRSs and gut metagenomic risk models improve the predictive value over conventional risk factors for common chronic diseases.

Using Polygenic Risk Scores for Prioritizing Individuals at Greatest Need of a Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment.

Background The aim of this study was to provide quantitative evidence of the use of polygenic risk scores for systematically identifying individuals for invitation for full formal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment. Methods and Results A total of 108 685 participants aged 40 to 69 years, with measured biomarkers, linked primary care records, and genetic data in UK Biobank were used for model derivation and population health modeling. Prioritization tools using age, polygenic risk scores for coronary artery disease and stroke, and conventional risk factors for CVD available within longitudinal primary care records were derived using sex-specific Cox models. We modeled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy after prioritizing individuals for invitation to a formal CVD risk assessment. If primary care records were used to prioritize individuals for formal risk assessment using age- and sex-specific thresholds corresponding to 5% false-negative rates, then the numbers of men and women needed to be screened to prevent 1 CVD event are 149 and 280, respectively. In contrast, adding polygenic risk scores to both prioritization and formal assessments, and selecting thresholds to capture the same number of events, resulted in a number needed to screen of 116 for men and 180 for women. Conclusions Using both polygenic risk scores and primary care records to prioritize individuals at highest risk of a CVD event for a formal CVD risk assessment can efficiently prioritize those who need interventions the most than using primary care records alone. This could lead to better allocation of resources by reducing the number of risk assessments in primary care while still preventing the same number of CVD events.

An atlas of genetic scores to predict multi-omic traits.

The use of omic modalities to dissect the molecular underpinnings of common diseases and traits is becoming increasingly common. But multi-omic traits can be genetically predicted, which enables highly cost-effective and powerful analyses for studies that do not have multi-omics1. Here we examine a large cohort (the INTERVAL study2; n = 50,000 participants) with extensive multi-omic data for plasma proteomics (SomaScan, n = 3,175; Olink, n = 4,822), plasma metabolomics (Metabolon HD4, n = 8,153), serum metabolomics (Nightingale, n = 37,359) and whole-blood Illumina RNA sequencing (n = 4,136), and use machine learning to train genetic scores for 17,227 molecular traits, including 10,521 that reach Bonferroni-adjusted significance. We evaluate the performance of genetic scores through external validation across cohorts of individuals of European, Asian and African American ancestries. In addition, we show the utility of these multi-omic genetic scores by quantifying the genetic control of biological pathways and by generating a synthetic multi-omic dataset of the UK Biobank3 to identify disease associations using a phenome-wide scan. We highlight a series of biological insights with regard to genetic mechanisms in metabolism and canonical pathway associations with disease; for example, JAK-STAT signalling and coronary atherosclerosis. Finally, we develop a portal ( https://www.omicspred.org/ ) to facilitate public access to all genetic scores and validation results, as well as to serve as a platform for future extensions and enhancements of multi-omic genetic scores.

Quality control and removal of technical variation of NMR metabolic biomarker data in ~120,000 UK Biobank participants.

Metabolic biomarker data quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy in approximately 121,000 UK Biobank participants has recently been released as a community resource, comprising absolute concentrations and ratios of 249 circulating metabolites, lipids, and lipoprotein sub-fractions. Here we identify and characterise additional sources of unwanted technical variation influencing individual biomarkers in the data available to download from UK Biobank. These included sample preparation time, shipping plate well, spectrometer batch effects, drift over time within spectrometer, and outlier shipping plates. We developed a procedure for removing this unwanted technical variation, and demonstrate that it increases signal for genetic and epidemiological studies of the NMR metabolic biomarker data in UK Biobank. We subsequently developed an R package, ukbnmr, which we make available to the wider research community to enhance the utility of the UK Biobank NMR metabolic biomarker data and to facilitate rapid analysis.

Sex-Specific Survival Bias and Interaction Modeling in Coronary Artery Disease Risk Prediction.

BACKGROUND: The 10-year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease risk score is the standard approach to predict risk of incident cardiovascular events, and recently, addition of coronary artery disease (CAD) polygenic scores has been evaluated. Although age and sex strongly predict the risk of CAD, their interaction with genetic risk prediction has not been systematically examined. This study performed an extensive evaluation of age and sex effects in genetic CAD risk prediction. METHODS: The population-based Norwegian HUNT2 (Trøndelag Health Study 2) cohort of 51 036 individuals was used as the primary dataset. Findings were replicated in the UK Biobank (372 410 individuals). Models for 10-year CAD risk were fitted using Cox proportional hazards, and Harrell concordance index, sensitivity, and specificity were compared. RESULTS: Inclusion of age and sex interactions of CAD polygenic score to the prediction models increased the C-index and sensitivity by accounting for nonadditive effects of CAD polygenic score and likely countering the observed survival bias in the baseline. The sensitivity for females was lower than males in all models including genetic information. We identified a total of 82.6% of incident CAD cases by using a 2-step approach: (1) Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease risk score (74.1%) and (2) the CAD polygenic score interaction model for those in low clinical risk (additional 8.5%). CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the importance and complexity of genetic risk in predicting CAD. There is a need for modeling age- and sex-interaction terms with polygenic scores to optimize detection of individuals at high risk, those who warrant preventive interventions. Sex-specific studies are needed to understand and estimate CAD risk with genetic information.

Genetically personalised organ-specific metabolic models in health and disease.

Understanding how genetic variants influence disease risk and complex traits (variant-to-function) is one of the major challenges in human genetics. Here we present a model-driven framework to leverage human genome-scale metabolic networks to define how genetic variants affect biochemical reaction fluxes across major human tissues, including skeletal muscle, adipose, liver, brain and heart. As proof of concept, we build personalised organ-specific metabolic flux models for 524,615 individuals of the INTERVAL and UK Biobank cohorts and perform a fluxome-wide association study (FWAS) to identify 4312 associations between personalised flux values and the concentration of metabolites in blood. Furthermore, we apply FWAS to identify 92 metabolic fluxes associated with the risk of developing coronary artery disease, many of which are linked to processes previously described to play in role in the disease. Our work demonstrates that genetically personalised metabolic models can elucidate the downstream effects of genetic variants on biochemical reactions involved in common human diseases.

Substantial Fat Loss in Physique Competitors Is Characterized by Increased Levels of Bile Acids, Very-Long Chain Fatty Acids, and Oxylipins.

Weight loss and increased physical activity may promote beneficial modulation of the metabolome, but limited evidence exists about how very low-level weight loss affects the metabolome in previously non-obese active individuals. Following a weight loss period (21.1 ± 3.1 weeks) leading to substantial fat mass loss of 52% (−7.9 ± 1.5 kg) and low body fat (12.7 ± 4.1%), the liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry-based metabolic signature of 24 previously young, healthy, and normal weight female physique athletes was investigated. We observed uniform increases (FDR < 0.05) in bile acids, very-long-chain free fatty acids (FFA), and oxylipins, together with reductions in unsaturated FFAs after weight loss. These widespread changes, especially in the bile acid profile, were most strongly explained (FDR < 0.05) by changes in android (visceral) fat mass. The reported changes did not persist, as all of them were reversed after the subsequent voluntary weight regain period (18.4 ± 2.9 weeks) and were unchanged in non-dieting controls (n = 16). Overall, we suggest that the reported changes in FFA, bile acid, and oxylipin profiles reflect metabolic adaptation to very low levels of fat mass after prolonged periods of intense exercise and low-energy availability. However, the effects of the aforementioned metabolome subclass alteration on metabolic homeostasis remain controversial, and more studies are warranted to unravel the complex physiology and potentially associated health implications. In the end, our study reinforced the view that transient weight loss seems to have little to no long-lasting molecular and physiological effects.

Combined effects of host genetics and diet on human gut microbiota and incident disease in a single population cohort.

Human genetic variation affects the gut microbiota through a complex combination of environmental and host factors. Here we characterize genetic variations associated with microbial abundances in a single large-scale population-based cohort of 5,959 genotyped individuals with matched gut microbial metagenomes, and dietary and health records (prevalent and follow-up). We identified 567 independent SNP-taxon associations. Variants at the LCT locus associated with Bifidobacterium and other taxa, but they differed according to dairy intake. Furthermore, levels of Faecalicatena lactaris associated with ABO, and suggested preferential utilization of secreted blood antigens as energy source in the gut. Enterococcus faecalis levels associated with variants in the MED13L locus, which has been linked to colorectal cancer. Mendelian randomization analysis indicated a potential causal effect of Morganella on major depressive disorder, consistent with observational incident disease analysis. Overall, we identify and characterize the intricate nature of host-microbiota interactions and their association with disease.

Machine learning optimized polygenic scores for blood cell traits identify sex-specific trajectories and genetic correlations with disease.

Genetic association studies for blood cell traits, which are key indicators of health and immune function, have identified several hundred associations and defined a complex polygenic architecture. Polygenic scores (PGSs) for blood cell traits have potential clinical utility in disease risk prediction and prevention, but designing PGS remains challenging and the optimal methods are unclear. To address this, we evaluated the relative performance of 6 methods to develop PGS for 26 blood cell traits, including a standard method of pruning and thresholding (P + T) and 5 learning methods: LDpred2, elastic net (EN), Bayesian ridge (BR), multilayer perceptron (MLP) and convolutional neural network (CNN). We evaluated these optimized PGSs on blood cell trait data from UK Biobank and INTERVAL. We find that PGSs designed using common machine learning methods EN and BR show improved prediction of blood cell traits and consistently outperform other methods. Our analyses suggest EN/BR as the top choices for PGS construction, showing improved performance for 25 blood cell traits in the external validation, with correlations with the directly measured traits increasing by 10%-23%. Ten PGSs showed significant statistical interaction with sex, and sex-specific PGS stratification showed that all of them had substantial variation in the trajectories of blood cell traits with age. Genetic correlations between the PGSs for blood cell traits and common human diseases identified well-known as well as new associations. We develop machine learning-optimized PGS for blood cell traits, demonstrate their relationships with sex, age, and disease, and make these publicly available as a resource.

Integrative analysis of the plasma proteome and polygenic risk of cardiometabolic diseases.

Cardiometabolic diseases are frequently polygenic in architecture, comprising a large number of risk alleles with small effects spread across the genome1-3. Polygenic scores (PGS) aggregate these into a metric representing an individual's genetic predisposition to disease. PGS have shown promise for early risk prediction4-7 and there is an open question as to whether PGS can also be used to understand disease biology8. Here, we demonstrate that cardiometabolic disease PGS can be used to elucidate the proteins underlying disease pathogenesis. In 3,087 healthy individuals, we found that PGS for coronary artery disease, type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease and ischaemic stroke are associated with the levels of 49 plasma proteins. Associations were polygenic in architecture, largely independent of cis and trans protein quantitative trait loci and present for proteins without quantitative trait loci. Over a follow-up of 7.7 years, 28 of these proteins associated with future myocardial infarction or type 2 diabetes events, 16 of which were mediators between polygenic risk and incident disease. Twelve of these were druggable targets with therapeutic potential. Our results demonstrate the potential for PGS to uncover causal disease biology and targets with therapeutic potential, including those that may be missed by approaches utilizing information at a single locus.

Polygenic risk scores in cardiovascular risk prediction: A cohort study and modelling analyses.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can stratify populations into cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk groups. We aimed to quantify the potential advantage of adding information on PRSs to conventional risk factors in the primary prevention of CVD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data from UK Biobank on 306,654 individuals without a history of CVD and not on lipid-lowering treatments (mean age [SD]: 56.0 [8.0] years; females: 57%; median follow-up: 8.1 years), we calculated measures of risk discrimination and reclassification upon addition of PRSs to risk factors in a conventional risk prediction model (i.e., age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, history of diabetes, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). We then modelled the implications of initiating guideline-recommended statin therapy in a primary care setting using incidence rates from 2.1 million individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, was 0.710 (95% CI 0.703-0.717) for a CVD prediction model containing conventional risk predictors alone. Addition of information on PRSs increased the C-index by 0.012 (95% CI 0.009-0.015), and resulted in continuous net reclassification improvements of about 10% and 12% in cases and non-cases, respectively. If a PRS were assessed in the entire UK primary care population aged 40-75 years, assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥10% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), then it could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 5,750 individuals screened. By contrast, targeted assessment only among people at intermediate (i.e., 5% to <10%) 10-year CVD risk could help prevent 1 additional CVD event for approximately every 340 individuals screened. Such a targeted strategy could help prevent 7% more CVD events than conventional risk prediction alone. Potential gains afforded by assessment of PRSs on top of conventional risk factors would be about 1.5-fold greater than those provided by assessment of C-reactive protein, a plasma biomarker included in some risk prediction guidelines. Potential limitations of this study include its restriction to European ancestry participants and a lack of health economic evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that addition of PRSs to conventional risk factors can modestly enhance prediction of first-onset CVD and could translate into population health benefits if used at scale.

The Polygenic and Monogenic Basis of Blood Traits and Diseases.

Blood cells play essential roles in human health, underpinning physiological processes such as immunity, oxygen transport, and clotting, which when perturbed cause a significant global health burden. Here we integrate data from UK Biobank and a large-scale international collaborative effort, including data for 563,085 European ancestry participants, and discover 5,106 new genetic variants independently associated with 29 blood cell phenotypes covering a range of variation impacting hematopoiesis. We holistically characterize the genetic architecture of hematopoiesis, assess the relevance of the omnigenic model to blood cell phenotypes, delineate relevant hematopoietic cell states influenced by regulatory genetic variants and gene networks, identify novel splice-altering variants mediating the associations, and assess the polygenic prediction potential for blood traits and clinical disorders at the interface of complex and Mendelian genetics. These results show the power of large-scale blood cell trait GWAS to interrogate clinically meaningful variants across a wide allelic spectrum of human variation.

Neonatal genetics of gene expression reveal potential origins of autoimmune and allergic disease risk.

Chronic immune-mediated diseases of adulthood often originate in early childhood. To investigate genetic associations between neonatal immunity and disease, we map expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) in resting myeloid cells and CD4+ T cells from cord blood samples, as well as in response to lipopolysaccharide (LPS) or phytohemagglutinin (PHA) stimulation, respectively. Cis-eQTLs are largely specific to cell type or stimulation, and 31% and 52% of genes with cis-eQTLs have response eQTLs (reQTLs) in myeloid cells and T cells, respectively. We identified cis regulatory factors acting as mediators of trans effects. There is extensive colocalisation between condition-specific neonatal cis-eQTLs and variants associated with immune-mediated diseases, in particular CTSH had widespread colocalisation across diseases. Mendelian randomisation shows causal neonatal gene expression effects on disease risk for BTN3A2, HLA-C and others. Our study elucidates the genetics of gene expression in neonatal immune cells, and aetiological origins of autoimmune and allergic diseases.

Multivariate Genome-wide Association Analysis of a Cytokine Network Reveals Variants with Widespread Immune, Haematological, and Cardiometabolic Pleiotropy.

Cytokines are essential regulatory components of the immune system, and their aberrant levels have been linked to many disease states. Despite increasing evidence that cytokines operate in concert, many of the physiological interactions between cytokines, and the shared genetic architecture that underlies them, remain unknown. Here, we aimed to identify and characterize genetic variants with pleiotropic effects on cytokines. Using three population-based cohorts (n = 9,263), we performed multivariate genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for a correlation network of 11 circulating cytokines, then combined our results in meta-analysis. We identified a total of eight loci significantly associated with the cytokine network, of which two (PDGFRB and ABO) had not been detected previously. In addition, conditional analyses revealed a further four secondary signals at three known cytokine loci. Integration, through the use of Bayesian colocalization analysis, of publicly available GWAS summary statistics with the cytokine network associations revealed shared causal variants between the eight cytokine loci and other traits; in particular, cytokine network variants at the ABO, SERPINE2, and ZFPM2 loci showed pleiotropic effects on the production of immune-related proteins, on metabolic traits such as lipoprotein and lipid levels, on blood-cell-related traits such as platelet count, and on disease traits such as coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes.

Elevated serum alpha-1 antitrypsin is a major component of GlycA-associated risk for future morbidity and mortality.

BACKGROUND: GlycA is a nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy biomarker that predicts risk of disease from myriad causes. It is heterogeneous; arising from five circulating glycoproteins with dynamic concentrations: alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT), alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), haptoglobin (HP), transferrin (TF), and alpha-1-antichymotrypsin (AACT). The contributions of each glycoprotein to the disease and mortality risks predicted by GlycA remain unknown. METHODS: We trained imputation models for AAT, AGP, HP, and TF from NMR metabolite measurements in 626 adults from a population cohort with matched NMR and immunoassay data. Levels of AAT, AGP, and HP were estimated in 11,861 adults from two population cohorts with eight years of follow-up, then each biomarker was tested for association with all common endpoints. Whole blood gene expression data was used to identify cellular processes associated with elevated AAT. RESULTS: Accurate imputation models were obtained for AAT, AGP, and HP but not for TF. While AGP had the strongest correlation with GlycA, our analysis revealed variation in imputed AAT levels was the most predictive of morbidity and mortality for the widest range of diseases over the eight year follow-up period, including heart failure (meta-analysis hazard ratio = 1.60 per standard deviation increase of AAT, P-value = 1×10-10), influenza and pneumonia (HR = 1.37, P = 6×10-10), and liver diseases (HR = 1.81, P = 1×10-6). Transcriptional analyses revealed association of elevated AAT with diverse inflammatory immune pathways. CONCLUSIONS: This study clarifies the molecular underpinnings of the GlycA biomarker's associated disease risk, and indicates a previously unrecognised association between elevated AAT and severe disease onset and mortality.

Comparative analysis reveals a role for TGF-ß in shaping the residency-related transcriptional signature in tissue-resident memory CD8+ T cells.

Tissue-resident CD8+ memory T (TRM) cells are immune cells that permanently reside at tissue sites where they play an important role in providing rapid protection against reinfection. They are not only phenotypically and functionally distinct from their circulating memory counterparts, but also exhibit a unique transcriptional profile. To date, the local tissue signals required for their development and long-term residency are not well understood. So far, the best-characterised tissue-derived signal is transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß), which has been shown to promote the development of these cells within tissues. In this study, we aimed to determine to what extent the transcriptional signatures of TRM cells from multiple tissues reflects TGF-ß imprinting. We activated murine CD8+ T cells, stimulated them in vitro by TGF-ß, and profiled their transcriptomes using RNA-seq. Upon comparison, we identified a TGF-ß-induced signature of differentially expressed genes between TGF-ß-stimulated and -unstimulated cells. Next, we linked this in vitro TGF-ß-induced signature to a previously identified in vivo TRM-specific gene set and found considerable (>50%) overlap between the two gene sets, thus showing that a substantial part of the TRM signature can be attributed to TGF-ß signalling. Finally, gene set enrichment analysis further revealed that the altered gene signature following TGF-ß exposure reflected transcriptional signatures found in TRM cells from both epithelial and non-epithelial tissues. In summary, these findings show that TGF-ß has a broad footprint in establishing the residency-specific transcriptional profile of TRM cells, which is detectable in TRM cells from diverse tissues. They further suggest that constitutive TGF-ß signaling might be involved for their long-term persistence at tissue sites.

FastSpar: rapid and scalable correlation estimation for compositional data.

SUMMARY: A common goal of microbiome studies is the elucidation of community composition and member interactions using counts of taxonomic units extracted from sequence data. Inference of interaction networks from sparse and compositional data requires specialized statistical approaches. A popular solution is SparCC, however its performance limits the calculation of interaction networks for very high-dimensional datasets. Here we introduce FastSpar, an efficient and parallelizable implementation of the SparCC algorithm which rapidly infers correlation networks and calculates P-values using an unbiased estimator. We further demonstrate that FastSpar reduces network inference wall time by 2-3 orders of magnitude compared to SparCC. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: FastSpar source code, precompiled binaries and platform packages are freely available on GitHub: github.com/scwatts/FastSpar. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Biomarker Glycoprotein Acetyls Is Associated With the Risk of a Wide Spectrum of Incident Diseases and Stratifies Mortality Risk in Angiography Patients.

BACKGROUND: Integration of systems-level biomolecular information with electronic health records has led to recent interest in the glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA) biomarker-a serum- or plasma-derived nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy signal that represents the abundance of circulating glycated proteins. GlycA predicts risk of diverse outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and all-cause mortality; however, the underlying detailed associations of GlycA's morbidity and mortality risk are currently unknown. METHODS: We used 2 population-based cohorts totaling 11 861 adults from the Finnish general population to test for an association with 468 common incident hospitalization and mortality outcomes during an 8-year follow-up. Further, we utilized 900 angiography patients to test for GlycA association with mortality risk and potential utility for mortality risk discrimination during 12-year follow-up. RESULTS: New associations with GlycA and incident alcoholic liver disease, chronic renal failure, glomerular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, inflammatory polyarthropathies, and hypertension were uncovered, and known incident disease associations were replicated. GlycA associations for incident disease outcomes were in general not attenuated when adjusting for hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein). Among 900 patients referred to angiography, GlycA had hazard ratios of 4.87 (95% CI, 2.45-9.65) and 5.00 (95% CI, 2.38-10.48) for 12-year risk of mortality in the fourth and fifth quintiles by GlycA levels, demonstrating its prognostic potential for identification of high-risk individuals. When modeled together, both hsCRP and GlycA were attenuated but remained significant. CONCLUSIONS: GlycA was predictive of myriad incident diseases across many major internal organs and stratified mortality risk in angiography patients. Both GlycA and hsCRP had shared and independent contributions to mortality risk, suggesting chronic inflammation as an etiological factor. GlycA may be useful in improving risk prediction in specific disease settings.