Development and external validation of machine learning algorithms for postnatal gestational age estimation using clinical data and metabolomic markers.

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimates of gestational age (GA) at birth are important for preterm birth surveillance but can be challenging to obtain in low income countries. Our objective was to develop machine learning models to accurately estimate GA shortly after birth using clinical and metabolomic data. METHODS: We derived three GA estimation models using ELASTIC NET multivariable linear regression using metabolomic markers from heel-prick blood samples and clinical data from a retrospective cohort of newborns from Ontario, Canada. We conducted internal model validation in an independent cohort of Ontario newborns, and external validation in heel prick and cord blood sample data collected from newborns from prospective birth cohorts in Lusaka, Zambia and Matlab, Bangladesh. Model performance was measured by comparing model-derived estimates of GA to reference estimates from early pregnancy ultrasound. RESULTS: Samples were collected from 311 newborns from Zambia and 1176 from Bangladesh. The best-performing model accurately estimated GA within about 6 days of ultrasound estimates in both cohorts when applied to heel prick data (MAE 0.79 weeks (95% CI 0.69, 0.90) for Zambia; 0.81 weeks (0.75, 0.86) for Bangladesh), and within about 7 days when applied to cord blood data (1.02 weeks (0.90, 1.15) for Zambia; 0.95 weeks (0.90, 0.99) for Bangladesh). CONCLUSIONS: Algorithms developed in Canada provided accurate estimates of GA when applied to external cohorts from Zambia and Bangladesh. Model performance was superior in heel prick data as compared to cord blood data.

HIV-associated vaginal microbiome and inflammation predict spontaneous preterm birth in Zambia.

A Lactobacillus-deficient, anaerobe-rich vaginal microbiome has been associated with local inflammation and spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB), but few studies have assessed this association in the setting of HIV. We performed metagenomic sequencing and inflammatory marker assays on vaginal swabs collected in pregnancy. We grouped samples into 7 metagenomic clusters (mgClust) using the non-redundant VIRGO catalogue, and derived inflammatory scores by factor analysis. Of 221 participants, median Shannon diversity index (SDI) was highest in HIV+ with detectable viral load (1.31, IQR: 0.85-1.66; p < 0.001) and HIV+ with undetectable virus (1.17, IQR: 0.51-1.66; p = 0.01) compared to HIV- (0.74, IQR: 0.35-1.26). Inflammatory scores positively correlated with SDI (+ 0.66, 95%CI 0.28, 1.03; p = 0.001), highest among anaerobe-rich mgClust2-mgClust6. HIV was associated with predominance of anaerobe-rich mgClust5 (17% vs. 6%; p = 0.02) and mgClust6 (27% vs. 11%; p = 0.002). Relative abundance of a novel Gardnerella metagenomic subspecies > 50% predicted sPTB (RR 2.6; 95%CI: 1.1, 6.4) and was higher in HIV+ (23% vs. 10%; p = 0.001). A novel Gardnerella metagenomic subspecies more abundant in women with HIV predicted sPTB. The risk of sPTB among women with HIV may be mediated by the vaginal microbiome and inflammation, suggesting potential targets for prevention.

Maternal HIV Infection and Spontaneous Versus Provider-Initiated Preterm Birth in an Urban Zambian Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the effect of maternal HIV and its treatment on spontaneous and provider-initiated preterm birth (PTB) in an urban African cohort. METHODS: The Zambian Preterm Birth Prevention Study enrolled pregnant women at their first antenatal visit in Lusaka. Participants underwent ultrasound, laboratory testing, and clinical phenotyping of delivery outcomes. Key exposures were maternal HIV serostatus and timing of antiretroviral therapy initiation. We defined the primary outcome, PTB, as delivery between 16 and 37 weeks' gestational age, and differentiated spontaneous from provider-initiated parturition. RESULTS: Of 1450 pregnant women enrolled, 350 (24%) had HIV. About 1216 (84%) were retained at delivery, 3 of whom delivered <16 weeks. Of 181 (15%) preterm deliveries, 120 (66%) were spontaneous, 56 (31%) were provider-initiated, and 5 (3%) were unclassified. In standardized analyses using inverse probability weighting, maternal HIV increased the risk of spontaneous PTB [RR 1.68; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12 to 2.52], but this effect was mitigated on overall PTB [risk ratio (RR) 1.31; 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.86] owing to a protective effect against provider-initiated PTB. HIV reduced the risk of preeclampsia (RR 0.32; 95% CI: 0.11 to 0.91), which strongly predicted provider-initiated PTB (RR 17.92; 95% CI: 8.13 to 39.53). The timing of antiretroviral therapy start did not affect the relationship between HIV and PTB. CONCLUSION: The risk of HIV on spontaneous PTB seems to be opposed by a protective effect of HIV on provider-initiated PTB. These findings support an inflammatory mechanism underlying HIV-related PTB and suggest that published estimates of PTB risk overall underestimate the risk of spontaneous PTB.

Maternal HIV, antiretroviral timing, and spontaneous preterm birth in an urban Zambian cohort: the role of local and systemic inflammation.

OBJECTIVE: To assess plasma and vaginal inflammation in three antenatal groups (HIV-uninfected women, HIV-infected women entering care on preconceptional ART, and HIV-infected women not on preconceptional ART) and whether these measures are associated with spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB). DESIGN: Case--control study nested within a pregnancy cohort in Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS: We analyzed 11 pro-inflammatory and two anti-inflammatory markers in 207 women with paired plasma and vaginal specimens collected between 16 and 20 gestational weeks. Among 51 HIV-infected women, we repeated the assays in 24-34-week samples. We used confirmatory factor analysis to create inflammation scores and compared them among the three groups. RESULTS: At baseline, HIV-infected women not on ART had higher vaginal pro-inflammatory scores than HIV-uninfected women [mean 0.37 (95% CI -0.06 to 0.80) vs. -0.02 (-0.32 to 0.27), P = 0.02]. In repeat testing, women not on preconceptional ART had an increase in vaginal inflammation between the baseline and 24-34-week visits compared with those continuing preconceptional ART [mean 0.62 (95% CI -0.80 to 4.20) vs. -0.07 (-2.78 to 2.11), P = 0.04]. In multivariate analyses, baseline vaginal inflammation predicted sPTB (aOR 1.5; 95% CI 1.0-2.3; P = 0.02). Plasma inflammation did not differ by HIV or ART exposure and was not associated with sPTB. CONCLUSION: Women not receiving ART at entry into pregnancy care had more vaginal inflammation than women entering on treatment. They also experienced an increase in vaginal inflammation between the two sampling timepoints, possibly as a consequence of ART initiation. Vaginal (but not systemic) inflammation was associated with sPTB and offers a potential mechanistic insight into this important adverse birth outcome.

Association of Maternal Buprenorphine or Methadone Dose with Fetal Growth Indices and Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to compare fetal growth and incidence of neonatal abstinence syndrome requiring treatment across pregnant women with opioid use disorders on two types and two dose categories of medication-assisted treatment. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in a comprehensive, perinatal program in western North Carolina comparing growth percentiles on third-trimester ultrasound and at birth, and diagnosis of neonatal abstinence syndrome requiring treatment. Singletons were exposed in utero to low- to moderate-dose buprenorphine (≤16 mg/day; n = 70), high-dose buprenorphine (≥17 mg/day; n = 36), low- to moderate-dose methadone (≤89 mg/day; n = 41), or high-dose methadone (≥90 mg/day; n = 74). Multivariate analysis of variance with posthoc Bonferroni comparisons (p ≤ 0.01) and multinomial logistic regressions (adjusted odds ratio, 99% confidence interval) were conducted. RESULTS: Differences in neonatal outcomes reached statistical significance for larger head circumference for buprenorphine doses (p = 0.01) and for longer length (p < 0.01) and lower odds of neonatal abstinence syndrome requiring treatment (p < 0.01) with low- to moderate-dose buprenorphine versus high-dose methadone. CONCLUSION: Among pregnant women using medication-assisted treatment for opioid use disorders, low- to moderate-dose buprenorphine (≤16 mg/day) was associated with the most favorable neonatal outcomes. However, more rigorous control of confounders with a larger sample is necessary to determine if low- to moderate-dose buprenorphine is the better treatment choice.

Highly diverse anaerobe-predominant vaginal microbiota among HIV-infected pregnant women in Zambia.

Vaginal dysbiosis has been shown to increase the risk of some adverse birth outcomes. HIV infection may be associated with shifts in the vaginal microbiome. We characterized microbial communities in vaginal swabs collected between 16-20 gestational weeks in the Zambian Preterm Birth Prevention Study to investigate whether HIV and its treatment alter the microbiome in pregnancy. We quantified relative abundance and diversity of bacterial taxa by whole-genome shotgun sequencing and identified community state types (CST) by hierarchical clustering. Associations between exposures-HIV serostatus (HIV+ vs HIV-) and preconceptional ART (ART+ vs ART-)-and microbiome characteristics were tested with rank-sum, and by linear and logistic regression, accounting for sampling by inverse-probability weighting. Of 261 vaginal swabs, 256 (98%) had evaluable sequences; 98 (38%) were from HIV+ participants, 55 (56%) of whom had preconceptional ART exposure. Major CSTs were dominated by: L. crispatus (CST 1; 17%), L.] iners (CST 3; 32%), Gardnerella vaginalis (CST 4-I; 37%), G. vaginalis & Atopobium vaginae (CST 4-II; 5%), and other mixed anaerobes (CST 4-III; 9%). G. vaginalis was present in 95%; mean relative abundance was higher in HIV+ (0.46±0.29) compared to HIV- participants (0.35±0.33; rank-sum p = .01). Shannon diversity was higher in HIV+/ART+ (coeff 0.17; 95%CI (0.01,0.33), p = .04) and HIV+/ART- (coeff 0.37; 95%CI (0.19,0.55), p < .001) participants compared to HIV-. Anaerobe-dominant CSTs were more prevalent in HIV+/ART+ (63%, AOR 3.11; 95%CI: 1.48,6.55, p = .003) and HIV+/ART- (85%, AOR 7.59; 95%CI (2.80,20.6), p < .001) compared to HIV- (45%). Restricting the comparison to 111 women in either CST 3 (L. iners dominance) or CST 1 (L. crispatus dominance), CST 3 frequency was similar in HIV- (63%) and HIV+/ART- participants (67%, AOR 1.31; 95%CI: (0.25,6.90), p = .7), but higher in HIV+/ART+ (89%, AOR 6.44; 95%CI: (1.12,37.0), p = .04). Pregnant women in Zambia, particularly those with HIV, had diverse anaerobe-dominant vaginal microbiota.

HIV serostatus, viral load, and midtrimester cervical length in a Zambian prenatal cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether maternal HIV serostatus and plasma viral load (VL) are associated with midtrimester cervical length (CL). METHODS: The Zambian Preterm Birth Prevention Study (ZAPPS) is an ongoing prospective cohort that began enrolling in Lusaka in August 2015. Pregnant women undergo ultrasound to determine gestational age and return for CL measurement at 16-28 weeks. We evaluated crude and adjusted associations between dichotomous indicators and short cervix (≤2.5 cm) via logistic regression, and between VL and CL as a continuous variable via linear regression. RESULTS: This analysis includes 1171 women enrolled between August 2015 and September 2017. Of 294 (25.1%) HIV-positive women, 275 (93.5%) had viral load performed close to CL measurement; of these, 148 (53.8%) had undetectable virus. Median CL was 3.6 cm (IQR 3.5-4.0) and was similar in HIV-infected (3.7 cm, IQR 3.5-4.0) versus uninfected (3.6 cm, IQR 3.5-4.0) participants (P=0.273). The odds of short CL were similar by HIV serostatus (OR 0.64; P=0.298) and detectable VL among those infected (OR 2.37, P=0.323). We observed no association between log VL and CL via linear regression (-0.12 cm; P=0.732). CONCLUSION: We found no evidence of association between HIV infection and short CL.

Improving preterm newborn identification in low-resource settings with machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Globally, preterm birth is the leading cause of neonatal death with estimated prevalence and associated mortality highest in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Accurate identification of preterm infants is important at the individual level for appropriate clinical intervention as well as at the population level for informed policy decisions and resource allocation. As early prenatal ultrasound is commonly not available in these settings, gestational age (GA) is often estimated using newborn assessment at birth. This approach assumes last menstrual period to be unreliable and birthweight to be unable to distinguish preterm infants from those that are small for gestational age (SGA). We sought to leverage machine learning algorithms incorporating maternal factors associated with SGA to improve accuracy of preterm newborn identification in LMIC settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This study uses data from an ongoing obstetrical cohort in Lusaka, Zambia that uses early pregnancy ultrasound to estimate GA. Our intent was to identify the best set of parameters commonly available at delivery to correctly categorize births as either preterm (<37 weeks) or term, compared to GA assigned by early ultrasound as the gold standard. Trained midwives conducted a newborn assessment (<72 hours) and collected maternal and neonatal data at the time of delivery or shortly thereafter. New Ballard Score (NBS), last menstrual period (LMP), and birth weight were used individually to assign GA at delivery and categorize each birth as either preterm or term. Additionally, machine learning techniques incorporated combinations of these measures with several maternal and newborn characteristics associated with prematurity and SGA to develop GA at delivery and preterm birth prediction models. The distribution and accuracy of all models were compared to early ultrasound dating. Within our live-born cohort to date (n = 862), the median GA at delivery by early ultrasound was 39.4 weeks (IQR: 38.3-40.3). Among assessed newborns with complete data included in this analysis (n = 468), the median GA by ultrasound was 39.6 weeks (IQR: 38.4-40.3). Using machine learning, we identified a combination of six accessible parameters (LMP, birth weight, twin delivery, maternal height, hypertension in labor, and HIV serostatus) that can be used by machine learning to outperform current GA prediction methods. For preterm birth prediction, this combination of covariates correctly classified >94% of newborns and achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.9796. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a parsimonious list of variables that can be used by machine learning approaches to improve accuracy of preterm newborn identification. Our best-performing model included LMP, birth weight, twin delivery, HIV serostatus, and maternal factors associated with SGA. These variables are all easily collected at delivery, reducing the skill and time required by the frontline health worker to assess GA. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02738892.

Adverse birth outcomes and their clinical phenotypes in an urban Zambian cohort.

Background: Few cohort studies of pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa use rigorous gestational age dating and clinical phenotyping. As a result, incidence and risk factors of adverse birth outcomes are inadequately characterized. Methods: The Zambian Preterm Birth Prevention Study (ZAPPS) is a prospective observational cohort established to investigate adverse birth outcomes at a referral hospital in urban Lusaka. This report describes ZAPPS phase I, enrolled August 2015 to September 2017. Women were followed through pregnancy and 42 days postpartum. At delivery, study staff assessed neonatal vital status, birthweight, and sex, and assigned a delivery phenotype. Primary outcomes were: (1) preterm birth (PTB; delivery <37 weeks), (2) small-for-gestational-age (SGA; <10 th percentile weight-for-age at birth), and (3) stillbirth (SB; delivery of an infant without signs of life). Results: ZAPPS phase I enrolled 1450 women with median age 27 years (IQR 23-32). Most participants (68%) were multiparous, of whom 41% reported a prior PTB and 14% reported a prior stillbirth. Twins were present in 3% of pregnancies, 3% of women had short cervix (<25mm), 24% of women were HIV seropositive, and 5% were syphilis seropositive. Of 1216 (84%) retained at delivery, 15% were preterm, 18% small-for-gestational-age, and 4% stillborn. PTB risk was higher with prior PTB (aRR 1.88; 95%CI 1.32-2.68), short cervix (aRR 2.62; 95%CI 1.68-4.09), twins (aRR 5.22; 95%CI 3.67-7.43), and antenatal hypertension (aRR 2.04; 95%CI 1.43-2.91). SGA risk was higher with twins (aRR 2.75; 95%CI 1.81-4.18) and antenatal hypertension (aRR 1.62; 95%CI 1.16-2.26). SB risk was higher with short cervix (aRR 6.42; 95%CI 2.56-16.1). Conclusio ns: This study confirms high rates of PTB, SGA, and SB among pregnant women in Lusaka, Zambia. Accurate gestational age dating and careful ascertainment of delivery data are critical to understanding the scope of adverse birth outcomes in low-resource settings.

The Zambian Preterm Birth Prevention Study (ZAPPS): Cohort characteristics at enrollment.

Background:Sub-Saharan Africa bears a disproportionate burden of preterm birth and other adverse outcomes. A better understanding of the demographic, clinical, and biologic underpinnings of these adverse outcomes is urgently needed to plan interventions and inform new discovery.  Methods:The Zambian Preterm Birth Prevention Study (ZAPPS) is a prospective observational cohort established at the Women and Newborn Hospital (WNH) in Lusaka, Zambia. We recruit pregnant women from district health centers and the WNH and offer ultrasound examination to determine eligibility. Participants receive routine obstetrical care, lab testing, midtrimester cervical length measurement, and serial fetal growth monitoring. At delivery, we assess gestational age, birthweight, vital status, and sex and assign a delivery phenotype. We collect blood, urine, and vaginal swab specimens at scheduled visits and store them in an on-site biorepository. In September 2017, enrollment of the ZAPPS Phase 1 - the subject of this report - was completed. Phase 2 - which is limited to HIV-uninfected women - reopened in January 2018.  Results:Between August 2015 and September 2017, we screened 1784 women, of whom 1450 (81.2%) met inclusion criteria and were enrolled. The median age at enrollment was 27 years (IQR 23-32) and thee median gestational age was 16 weeks (IQR 13-18). Among parous women (N=866; 64%), 21% (N=182) reported a prior miscarriage, 49% (N=424) reported a prior preterm birth, and 13% (N=116) reported a prior stillbirth. The HIV seroprevalence was 24%. Discussion:We have established a large cohort of pregnant women and newborns at the WHN to characterize the determinants of adverse birth outcomes in Lusaka, Zambia. Our overarching goal is to elucidate biological mechanisms in an effort to identify new strategies for early detection and prevention of adverse outcomes. We hope that findings from this cohort will help guide future studies, clinical care, and policy.

A Preliminary Analysis of Compassion Fatigue in a Surgeon Population: Are Female Surgeons at Heightened Risk?

Compassion fatigue (CF), a state of physical/emotional distress caused by repeatedly caring for those experiencing traumatic episodes, is a prevalent issue for today's healthcare provider. We sought to characterize levels of CF within a surgeon population, particularly comparing trauma surgery with other surgical specialties. A survey containing the Professional Quality of Life Scale (ProQOL), a validated tool assessing compassion satisfaction (CS), CF, and burnout (BO) was distributed via electronic newsletter to members of the American College of Surgeons. Demographic data and Professional Quality of Life Scale scores for CS, BO, and CF were collected and compared within specialty and gender subgroups. A total of 178 surgeons completed surveys. Respondents were predominantly male, general surgeons, >55 years old. Trauma surgeons composed the second largest subgroup. Levels of CS were significantly lower in the trauma surgeon subgroup compared to other surgical specialties (trauma: 37.1 ± 5.28, other: 39.5 ± 6.30; P = 0.044). Female surgeons from all specialties exhibited significantly higher levels of BO (female: 26.7 ± 6.10, male: 24.6 ± 6.79; P = 0.035) and CF (female: 24.2 ± 6.29, male: 21.9 ± 6.11; P = 0.021) compared with male surgeons. Subanalyses comparing female trauma surgeons to female surgeons in other specialties found female trauma surgeons exhibited significantly lower levels of CS (trauma: 34.8 ± 4.63, other: 38.8 ± 5.99; P = 0.038) and higher levels of BO (trauma: 29.1 ± 3.14, other: 25.3 ± 6.41; P = 0.049). Trauma surgeons, particularly female trauma surgeons, may be at a heightened risk for developing a poorer overall professional quality of life compared with surgeons of other specialties. In addition, female surgeons may be at greater risk for developing CF compared with male counterparts.

The Effect of Time to International Normalized Ratio Reversal on Intracranial Hemorrhage Evolution in Patients With Traumatic Brain Injury.

The incidence of geriatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) is increasing throughout the United States, with many of these patients taking anticoagulation (AC) medication. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the effect of time to international normalized ratio (INR) reversal on intracranial hemorrhage evolution in TBI patients taking prehospital AC medication. We hypothesized that rapid reversal of INR improves outcomes of head-injured patients taking AC medication. Admissions to a Level II trauma center between February 2011 and December 2013 were reviewed. Patients presenting with an initial INR of 2.0 or more, computed tomographic scan positive for intracranial hemorrhage, and INR reversal to less than 1.5 in hospital were included. Patients with nontraumatic intracranial hemorrhage were excluded. Reversal of INR was achieved using some combination of fresh frozen plasma, prothrombin complex concentrate, and vitamin K. A binary logistic regression model assessed the adjusted impact of rapid INR reversal on intracranial hemorrhage evolution. Significance was defined as p < .05. One hundred subjects were included. Four patients with nontraumatic intracranial hemorrhage were excluded, resulting in a final study population of 96 patients. The most common intracranial hemorrhage in the study population was subarachnoid hemorrhage (71.9%), followed by subdural hemorrhage (35.4%). Reversal of INR of less than 5 hr was not associated with intracranial hemorrhage evolution; however, reversal of less than 10 hr was found to be associated with a decreased odds ratio for intracranial hemorrhage evolution (p = .043). Rapid reversal of elevated INR levels (<10 hr) may decrease intracranial hemorrhage evolution in TBI patients taking prehospital AC medication.

Overview of Nonoperative Blunt Splenic Injury Management with Associated Splenic Artery Pseudoaneurysm.

The delayed development of splenic artery pseudoaneurysm (SAP) can complicate the nonoperative management of splenic injuries. We sought to determine the utility of repeat imaging in diagnosing SAP in patients managed nonoperatively without angioembolization. We hypothesized that a significant rate of SAPs would be found in this population on repeat imaging. Patients undergoing nonoperative splenic injury management from January 2011 to June 2015 were queried from the trauma registry. Rates of repeat imaging, angioembolization, readmission, and SAP development were analyzed. Further, subanalyses investigating the incidence of SAP in patients managed nonoperatively without angioembolization were conducted. A total of 133 patients met inclusion criteria. Repeat imaging rate was 40 per cent, angioembolization rate was 26 per cent, and readmission rate was 6 per cent. Within the study population, nine SAPs were found (8/9 in patients with splenic injury grade ≥III). Of these nine SAPs, three (33%) were identified on initial scans and embolized, whereas six (67%) were found on repeat imaging in patients not initially receiving angioembolization. Splenic injuries are typically managed nonoperatively without serious complications. Our results suggest patients with splenic injuries grade ≥III managed nonoperatively without angioembolization should have repeat imaging within 48 hours to rule out the possibility of SAP.

Vena Cava Filter Use in Trauma and Rates of Pulmonary Embolism, 2003-2015.

IMPORTANCE: Vena cava filter (VCF) placement for pulmonary embolism (PE) prophylaxis in trauma is controversial. Limited research exists detailing trends in VCF use and occurrence of PE over time. OBJECTIVE: To analyze state and nationwide temporal trends in VCF placement and PE occurrence from 2003 to 2015 using available data sets. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective trauma cohort study was conducted using data from the Pennsylvania Trauma Outcome Study (PTOS) (461 974 patients from 2003 to 2015), the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) (5 755 095 patients from 2003 to 2014), and the National (Nationwide) Inpatient Sample (NIS) (24 449 476 patients from 2003 to 2013) databases. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Temporal trends in VCF placement and PE rates, filter type (prophylactic or therapeutic), and established predictors of PE (obesity, pregnancy, cancer, deep vein thrombosis, major procedure, spinal cord paralysis, venous injury, lower extremity fracture, pelvic fracture, central line, intracranial hemorrhage, and blood transfusion). Prophylactic filters were defined as VCFs placed before or without an existing PE, while therapeutic filters were defined as VCFs placed after a PE. RESULTS: Of the 461 974 patients in PTOS, the mean (SD) age was 47.2 (26.4) and 61.6% (284 621) were men; of the 5 755 095 patients in NTDB, the mean age (SD) was 42.0 (24.3) and 63.7% (3 666 504) were men; and of the 24 449 476 patients in NIS, the mean (SD) age was 58.0 (25.2) and 49.7% (12 160 231) were men. Of patients receiving a filter (11 405 in the PTOS, 71 029 in the NTDB, and 189 957 in the NIS), most were prophylactic VCFs (93.6% in the PTOS, 93.5% in the NTDB, and 93.3% in the NIS). Unadjusted and adjusted temporal trends for the PTOS and NTDB showed initial increases in filter placement followed by significant declines (unadjusted reductions in VCF placement rates, 76.8% in the PTOS and 53.3% in the NTDB). The NIS demonstrated a similar unadjusted trend, with a slight increase and modest decline (22.2%) in VCF placement rates over time; however, adjusted trends showed a slight but significant increase in filter rates. Adjusted PE rates for the PTOS and NTDB showed significant initial increases followed by slight decreases, with limited variation during the declining filter use periods. The NIS showed an initial increase in PE rates followed by a period of stagnation. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Despite a precipitous decline of VCF use in trauma, PE rates remained unchanged during this period. Taking this association into consideration, VCFs may have limited utility in influencing rates of PE. More judicious identification of at-risk patients is warranted to determine individuals who would most benefit from a VCF.

A bitter pill to swallow: dysphagia in cervical spine injury.

BACKGROUND: Dysphagia is a common complication after cervical spine trauma with spinal cord injury. We sought to characterize the prevalence of dysphagia within a total cervical spinal injury (CSI) population, considering the implications of spinal cord injury status and age on dysphagia development. We hypothesized that while greater rates of dysphagia would be found in geriatric and spinal cord-injured subgroups, all patients presenting with CSI would be at heightened risk for swallowing dysfunction. METHODS: All trauma admissions to a level II trauma center from January 2010 to April 2014 with CSI were retrospectively reviewed. CSI was classified as any ligamentous or cervical spinous fracture with or without cord injury. Patients failing a formal swallow evaluation were considered dysphagic. The implications of dysphagia development on age and spinal cord injury status were assessed in univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: A total of 481 patients met study inclusion criteria, of which 123 (26%) developed dysphagia. Within the dysphagic subpopulation, 90 patients (73%) were geriatric, and 23 (19%) sustained spinal cord injury. The dysphagic subpopulation was predominantly free from spinal cord injury (81%). Multivariate analyses found age (adjusted odds ratio: 1.06; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.07; P < 0.001) and spinal cord injury (adjusted odds ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval 1.30-5.56; P = 0.008) to be significant predictors of dysphagia development. CONCLUSIONS: Despite spinal cord-injured patients being at increased risk for dysphagia, most of the dysphagic subpopulation was free from spinal cord injury. Geriatric and CSI patients with or without cord injury should be at heightened suspicion for dysphagia development.

An Analysis of Beta-Blocker Administration Pre-and Post-Traumatic Brain Injury with Subanalyses for Head Injury Severity and Myocardial Injury.

A growing body of literature indicates that beta-blocker administration after traumatic brain injury (TBI) is cerebroprotective, limiting secondary injury; however, the effects of preinjury beta blocker status remain poorly understood. We sought to characterize the effects of pre- and postinjury beta-blocker administration on mortality with subanalyses accounting for head injury severity and myocardial injury. In a Level II trauma center, all admissions of patients ≥18 years with a head Abbreviated Injury Scale Score ≥2, Glasgow Coma Scale ≤13 from May 2011 to May 2013 were queried. Demographic, injury-specific, and outcome variables were analyzed using univariate analyses. Subsequent multivariate analyses were conducted to determine adjusted odds of mortality for beta-blocker usage controlling for age, Injury Severity Score, head Abbreviated Injury Scale, arrival Glasgow Coma Scale, ventilator use, and intensive care unit stay. A total of 214 trauma admissions met inclusion criteria: 112 patients had neither pre- nor postinjury beta-blocker usage, 46 patients had preinjury beta-blocker usage, and 94 patients had postinjury beta-blocker usage. Both unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios of preinjury beta-blocker were insignificant with respect to mortality. However, postinjury in-hospital administration of beta blockers was found to significantly in the decrease of mortality in both univariate (P = 0.002) and multivariate analyses (P = 0.001). Our data indicate that beta-blocker administration post-TBI in hospital reduces odds of mortality; however, preinjury beta-blocker usage does not. Additionally, myocardial injury is a useful indicator for beta-blocker administration post-TBI. Further research into which beta blockers confer the best benefits as well as the optimal period of beta-blocker administration post-TBI is recommended.

Under fire: gun violence is not just an urban problem.

BACKGROUND: Gun violence continues to be a source of trauma patient morbidity and mortality annually in the United States. We sought to characterize gun violence in the combined suburban and rural county of Lancaster, PA, and compare it with gun violence results obtained in urban areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All gunshot wound (GSW) admissions from January 2000-December 2013 were queried from trauma registry. Patients sustaining ball bearing/ball bullet (BB) or pellet gun injury were excluded. Data collected included mortality, injury severity score (ISS), number of GSW per patient, and cost data. Linear trend tests assessed the change in mortality, patients with three or more GSWs, and patients with an ISS ≥15 and ISS ≥25 over the study period. Statistical significance was defined as P < 0.05. RESULTS: A total of 478 patients met our inclusion criteria. Linear trend tests revealed no significant changes in percent mortality (P = 0.973), percent of patients with three or more GSWs (P = 0.692), percent of patients with an ISS ≥15 (P = 0.545), and percent of patients with an ISS ≥25 (P = 0.343) over the 14-y study period. No significant change in cost per case was observed over the study period (P = 0.246); however, percent reimbursement significantly increased (P = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: In the relatively affluent suburban and rural community of Lancaster, PA, there is a low-level pattern of gunshot violence and subsequent mortality that has not changed over time. This continuing pattern of gunshot violence speaks to the need for development of innovative preventative measures, as well as continuing efforts against gunshot violence by health care and law-enforcement personnel in suburban and urban centers alike.

The ACT Alert: preliminary results of a novel protocol to assess geriatric head trauma patients on anticoagulation.

In busy emergency departments (EDs), elderly patients on anticoagulation (AC) sustaining minor injuries who are triaged to a lower priority for evaluation are at risk for potentially serious consequences. We sought to determine if a novel ED protocol prioritizes workup and improves outcome. In a Pennsylvania-verified Level II trauma center, the ACT (AntiCoagulation and Trauma) Alert was implemented in March 2012. Triage parameters include: age 65 years or older, AC agents, Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) 13 or greater, and head trauma 24 hours or less. ACT Alerts are announced overhead in the ED and require assessment by an ED physician, nurse, and phlebotomist in 15 minutes or less. Furthermore, they necessitate Point of Care international normalized ratio (INR) 20 minutes or less and head computed tomography (CT) scan 30 minutes or less. Positive CT findings mandate trauma service consultation. ACT Alert patients from March to December 2012 were compared with ED patients 65 years or older, GCS 13 or greater, on AC with the same chief complaints as ACT Alerts from June 2011 to February 2012 (control). A P value ≤ 0.05 was considered significant. Of 752 study patients, 415 were ACT and 337 were controls. There were no significant differences between groups in age, elevated INR, or head bleeds. ACT patients had significantly shorter median times from ED arrival to INR (ACT 13 minutes vs control 80 minutes; P < 0.001) and to head CT (ACT 35 minutes vs control 65 minutes; P < 0.001). Of admitted patients, ACT had a significantly shorter median length of stay (LOS) (ACT 3.7 days vs control 5.0 days; P < 0.001). Although trends toward improved outcome were noted, no statistically significant differences were identified. The ACT Alert improves ED throughput and reduces hospital LOS while effectively identifying at-risk, mildly head injured geriatric patients on AC.

An analysis of geriatric recidivism in the era of accountable care organizations.

BACKGROUND: To date, there are almost 500 accountable care organizations (ACOs) across the United States emphasizing cost-effective care. Readmission largely impacts health care cost; therefore, we sought to determine factors associated with geriatric trauma readmissions (recidivism) within our institution. METHODS: All admissions from 2000 to 2011 attributed to patients 65 years or older at our Level II trauma center, recently verified by Medicare as an ACO, were queried. Patients were classified as recidivist or nonrecidivist. The first admissions of recidivist patients were compared with the nonrecidivist admissions with respect to sex, age, race, primary insurance, admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, Injury Severity Score (ISS), hospital length of stay, mechanism of injury (MOI), preexisting conditions, and discharge destination. Factors found to be significant predictors of recidivism in univariate analyses were subsequently incorporated into a multivariate logistic regression model. In addition, the second admission's MOI was compared with the first admission's MOI, and the proportion of first, second, and third admissions attributed to falls was calculated. A p < 0.05 was significant. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2011, a total of 4,963 unique patients were admitted to the trauma center at 65 years or older. This population was composed of 287 recidivists (5.8%) and 4,676 nonrecidivists (94.2%). When placed in a multivariate logistic regression, female sex, admission GCS score of 15, history of head trauma, and preexisting pulmonary disease were identified as significant predictors of recidivism. A trend toward increasing proportion of injuries attributed to falls was found with each subsequent trauma admission (81.5% [234 of 287] of first admissions, 88.2% [253 of 287] of second admissions, and 90.5% [19 of 21] of third admissions). CONCLUSION: Our study identifies specific factors that should be targeted by social service and prevention resources to inhibit recidivism in the elderly. In the brave new world of ACOs, trauma centers must identify high-risk populations for the consumption of limited resources. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Care management study, level IV. Prognostic study, level III.

An analysis of Brain Trauma Foundation traumatic brain injury guideline compliance and patient outcome.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence-based guidelines for the care of severe traumatic brain injury have been available from the Brain Trauma Foundation (BTF) since 1995. A total of 15 recommendations compose the current guidelines. Although each individual guideline has been validated in isolation, to date, little research has examined the guidelines in composite. We examined the relationship between compliance with the BTF severe TBI guidelines and mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a Pennsylvania-verified, mature Level II trauma centre, patients with an admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ≤ 8 and an abnormal head CT from 2007 to 2012 were queried from the trauma registry. Exclusion criteria included: patients who sustained a non-survivable injury (AIS head 6), died ≤ 24 h, and/or were transferred to a paediatric trauma centre. Strict adherence to the BTF guidelines was determined in a binary fashion (yes/no). We then calculated each patient's percent compliance with total number of guidelines. Bivariate analysis was used to find significant predictors of mortality (p<0.05), including percent BTF guidelines compliance. Significant factors were added to a multivariable logistic regression model to look at mortality rates across the percent compliance spectrum. RESULTS: 185 Patients met inclusion criteria. Percent compliance ranged from 28.6% to 94.4%, (median=71.4%). Following adjustment for age, AIS head, and GCS motor, patients with 55-75% compliance (AOR: 0.20; 95%CI: 0.06-0.70) and >75% compliance (AOR: 0.27; 95%CI: 0.08-0.94) had reduced odds of mortality, as compared to <55% compliance to the BTF guidelines. When the unadjusted rate of mortality was compared across the compliance spectrum, the odds of mortality decreased as compliance increased until 75%, and then reversed. CONCLUSION: Our data indicate that full compliance with all 15 severe TBI guidelines is difficult to achieve and may not be necessary to optimally care for patients.