The Improved Kidney Risk Score in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis for Clinical Practice and Trials.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Reliable prediction tools are needed to personalize treatment in ANCA-associated GN. More than 1500 patients were collated in an international longitudinal study to revise the ANCA kidney risk score. The score showed satisfactory performance, mimicking the original study (Harrell's C=0.779). In the development cohort of 959 patients, no additional parameters aiding the tool were detected, but replacing the GFR with creatinine identified an additional cutoff. The parameter interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy was modified to allow wider access, risk points were reweighted, and a fourth risk group was created, improving predictive ability (C=0.831). In the validation, the new model performed similarly well with excellent calibration and discrimination ( n =480, C=0.821). The revised score optimizes prognostication for clinical practice and trials. BACKGROUND: Reliable prediction tools are needed to personalize treatment in ANCA-associated GN. A retrospective international longitudinal cohort was collated to revise the ANCA renal risk score. METHODS: The primary end point was ESKD with patients censored at last follow-up. Cox proportional hazards were used to reweight risk factors. Kaplan-Meier curves, Harrell's C statistic, receiver operating characteristics, and calibration plots were used to assess model performance. RESULTS: Of 1591 patients, 1439 were included in the final analyses, 2:1 randomly allocated per center to development and validation cohorts (52% male, median age 64 years). In the development cohort ( n =959), the ANCA renal risk score was validated and calibrated, and parameters were reinvestigated modifying interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy allowing semiquantitative reporting. An additional cutoff for kidney function (K) was identified, and serum creatinine replaced GFR (K0: <250 µ mol/L=0, K1: 250-450 µ mol/L=4, K2: >450 µ mol/L=11 points). The risk points for the percentage of normal glomeruli (N) and interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (T) were reweighted (N0: >25%=0, N1: 10%-25%=4, N2: <10%=7, T0: none/mild or <25%=0, T1: ≥ mild-moderate or ≥25%=3 points), and four risk groups created: low (0-4 points), moderate (5-11), high (12-18), and very high (21). Discrimination was C=0.831, and the 3-year kidney survival was 96%, 79%, 54%, and 19%, respectively. The revised score performed similarly well in the validation cohort with excellent calibration and discrimination ( n =480, C=0.821). CONCLUSIONS: The updated score optimizes clinicopathologic prognostication for clinical practice and trials.

Symptomatic benefits of testosterone treatment in patient subgroups: a systematic review, individual participant data meta-analysis, and aggregate data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Testosterone replacement therapy is known to improve sexual function in men younger than 40 years with pathological hypogonadism. However, the extent to which testosterone alleviates sexual dysfunction in older men and men with obesity is unclear, despite the fact that testosterone is being increasingly prescribed to these patient populations. We aimed to evaluate whether subgroups of men with low testosterone derive any symptomatic benefit from testosterone treatment. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate characteristics associated with symptomatic benefit of testosterone treatment versus placebo in men aged 18 years and older with a baseline serum total testosterone concentration of less than 12 nmol/L. We searched major electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) and clinical trial registries for reports published in English between Jan 1, 1992, and Aug 27, 2018. Anonymised individual participant data were requested from the investigators of all identified trials. Primary (cardiovascular) outcomes from this analysis have been published previously. In this report, we present the secondary outcomes of sexual function, quality of life, and psychological outcomes at 12 months. We did a one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis with a random-effects linear regression model, and a two-stage meta-analysis integrating individual participant data with aggregated data from studies that did not provide individual participant data. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42018111005. FINDINGS: 9871 citations were identified through database searches. After exclusion of duplicates and publications not meeting inclusion criteria, 225 full texts were assessed for inclusion, of which 109 publications reporting 35 primary studies (with a total 5601 participants) were included. Of these, 17 trials provided individual participant data (3431 participants; median age 67 years [IQR 60-72]; 3281 [97%] of 3380 aged ≥40 years) Compared with placebo, testosterone treatment increased 15-item International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-15) total score (mean difference 5·52 [95% CI 3·95-7·10]; τ2=1·17; n=1412) and IIEF-15 erectile function subscore (2·14 [1·40-2·89]; τ2=0·64; n=1436), reaching the minimal clinically important difference for mild erectile dysfunction. These effects were not found to be dependent on participant age, obesity, presence of diabetes, or baseline serum total testosterone. However, absolute IIEF-15 scores reached during testosterone treatment were subject to thresholds in patient age and baseline serum total testosterone. Testosterone significantly improved Aging Males' Symptoms score, and some 12-item or 36-item Short Form Survey quality of life subscores compared with placebo, but it did not significantly improve psychological symptoms (measured by Beck Depression Inventory). INTERPRETATION: In men aged 40 years or older with baseline serum testosterone of less than 12 nmol/L, short-to-medium-term testosterone treatment could provide clinically meaningful treatment for mild erectile dysfunction, irrespective of patient age, obesity, or degree of low testosterone. However, due to more severe baseline symptoms, the absolute level of sexual function reached during testosterone treatment might be lower in older men and men with obesity. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Aided Cortical Auditory Evoked Potentials in Infants With Frequency-Specific Synthetic Speech Stimuli: Sensitivity, Repeatability, and Feasibility.

OBJECTIVES: The cortical auditory evoked potential (CAEP) test is a candidate for supplementing clinical practice for infant hearing aid users and others who are not developmentally ready for behavioral testing. Sensitivity of the test for given sensation levels (SLs) has been reported to some degree, but further data are needed from large numbers of infants within the target age range, including repeat data where CAEPs were not detected initially. This study aims to assess sensitivity, repeatability, acceptability, and feasibility of CAEPs as a clinical measure of aided audibility in infants. DESIGN: One hundred and three infant hearing aid users were recruited from 53 pediatric audiology centers across the UK. Infants underwent aided CAEP testing at age 3 to 7 months to a mid-frequency (MF) and (mid-)high-frequency (HF) synthetic speech stimulus. CAEP testing was repeated within 7 days. When developmentally ready (aged 7-21 months), the infants underwent aided behavioral hearing testing using the same stimuli, to estimate the decibel (dB) SL (i.e., level above threshold) of those stimuli when presented at the CAEP test sessions. Percentage of CAEP detections for different dB SLs are reported using an objective detection method (Hotellings T 2 ). Acceptability was assessed using caregiver interviews and a questionnaire, and feasibility by recording test duration and completion rate. RESULTS: The overall sensitivity for a single CAEP test when the stimuli were ≥0 dB SL (i.e., audible) was 70% for the MF stimulus and 54% for the HF stimulus. After repeat testing, this increased to 84% and 72%, respectively. For SL >10 dB, the respective MF and HF test sensitivities were 80% and 60% for a single test, increasing to 94% and 79% for the two tests combined. Clinical feasibility was demonstrated by an excellent >99% completion rate, and acceptable median test duration of 24 minutes, including preparation time. Caregivers reported overall positive experiences of the test. CONCLUSIONS: By addressing the clinical need to provide data in the target age group at different SLs, we have demonstrated that aided CAEP testing can supplement existing clinical practice when infants with hearing loss are not developmentally ready for traditional behavioral assessment. Repeat testing is valuable to increase test sensitivity. For clinical application, it is important to be aware of CAEP response variability in this age group.

Membranous nephropathy in the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Despite MN being one of the most common causes of nephrotic syndrome worldwide, its biological and environmental determinants are poorly understood in large-part due to it being a rare disease. Making use of the UK Biobank, a unique resource holding a clinical dataset and stored DNA, serum and urine for ~500,000 participants, this study aims to address this gap in understanding. METHODS: The primary outcome was putative MN as defined by ICD-10 codes occurring in the UK Biobank. Univariate relative risk regression modelling was used to assess the associations between the incidence of MN and related phenotypes with sociodemographic, environmental exposures, and previously described increased-risk SNPs. RESULTS: 502,507 patients were included in the study of whom 100 were found to have a putative diagnosis of MN; 36 at baseline and 64 during the follow-up. Prevalence at baseline and last follow-up were 72 and 199 cases/million respectively. At baseline, as expected, the majority of those previously diagnosed with MN had proteinuria, and there was already evidence of proteinuria in patients diagnosed within the first 5 years of follow-up. The highest incidence rate for MN in patients was seen in those homozygous for the high-risk alleles (9.9/100,000 person-years). CONCLUSION: It is feasible to putatively identify patients with MN in the UK Biobank and cases are still accumulating. This study shows the chronicity of disease with proteinuria present years before diagnosis. Genetics plays an important role in disease pathogenesis, with the at-risk group providing a potential population for recall.

Growth of twins conceived using assisted reproductive treatments up to 5 years old: a national growth cohort.

STUDY QUESTION: Do twins conceived through assisted reproductive treatments (ART) grow differently from naturally conceived (NC) twins in early life? SUMMARY ANSWER: Assessments at 6-8 weeks old and at school entry show that ART twins conceived from frozen embryo transfer (FET) grow faster than both NC twins and ART twins conceived from fresh embryo transfer (ET). WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Singletons born from fresh ET grow more slowly in utero and in the first few weeks of life but then show postnatal catch-up growth by school age, compared to NC and FET babies. Evidence on early child growth of ART twins relative to NC twins is inconsistent; most studies are small and do not distinguish FET from fresh ET cycles. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This cohort study included 13 528 live-born twin babies conceived by ART (fresh ET: 2792, FET: 556) and NC (10 180) between 1991 and 2009 in Scotland. The data were obtained by linking Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority ART register data to the Scottish Morbidity Record (SMR02) and Scottish child health programme datasets. Outcome data were collected at birth, 6-8 weeks (first assessment), and school entry (4-7 years old) assessments. The primary outcome was growth, measured by weight at the three assessment points. Secondary outcomes were length (at birth and 6-8 weeks) or height (at school entry), BMI, occipital circumference, gestational age at birth, newborn intensive care unit admission, and growth rates (between birth and 6-8 weeks and between 6-8 weeks and school entry). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: All twins in the linked dataset (born between 1991 and 2009) with growth data were included in the analysis. To determine outcome differences between fresh ET, FET, and NC twins, linear mixed models (or analogous logistic regression models) were used to explore the outcomes of interest. All models were adjusted for available confounders: gestational age/child age, gender, maternal age and smoking, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, year of treatment, parity, ICSI, and ET stage. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: In the primary birth weight models, the average birth weight of fresh ET twins was lower [-35 g; 95% CI: (-53, -16)g] than NC controls, while FET twins were heavier [71 g; 95% CI (33, 110) g] than NC controls and heavier [106 g; 95% CI (65, 146) g] than fresh ET twins. However, the difference between FET and NC twins was not significant when considering only full-term twins (≥37 weeks gestation) [26 g; 95% CI (-30, 82) g], while it was significantly higher in preterm twins [126 g; 95% CI (73, 179) g]. Growth rates did not differ significantly for the three groups from birth to 6-8 weeks. However, FET twins grew significantly faster from 6 to 8 weeks than NC (by 2.2 g/week) and fresh ET twins (by 2.1 g/week). By school entry, FET twins were 614 g [95% CI (158, 1070) g] and 581 g [95% CI (100, 1063) g] heavier than NC and fresh ET twins, respectively. Length/height and occipital frontal circumference did not differ significantly at any time point. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Although the differences between ART and NC reflect the true ART effects, these effects are likely to be mediated partly through the different prevalence of mono/dizygotic twins in the two groups. We could not explore the mediating effect of zygosity due to the unavailability of data. The confounding variables included in the study were limited to those available in the datasets. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Live-born twins from FET cycles are heavier at birth, grow faster than their fresh ET and NC counterparts, and are still heavier at school entry. This differs from that observed in singletons from the same cohort, where babies in the three conception groups had similar weights by school entry age. The results are reassuring on known differences in FET versus fresh ET and NC twin outcomes. However, FET twins grow faster and are consistently larger, and more ART twins depict catch-up growth. These may lead to an increased risk profile for non-communicable diseases in later life. As such, these twin outcomes require careful evaluation using more recent and comprehensive cohorts. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was funded by the EU H2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Innovative Training Networks (ITN) grant Dohartnet (H2020-MSCA-ITN-2018-812660). The authors have no competing interests to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Portal pressure is of significant prognostic value in primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In other forms of chronic liver disease, measurement of portal pressure is of prognostic value, but this has not yet been established in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim of the study is to determine the prognostic value of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) in relation to liver-related survival outcomes, as well as to the development of hepatic decompensation, oesophageal varices and variceal bleeding. METHODS: Baseline HVPG and liver biopsies were obtained in 86 patients followed for 10 years in a controlled trial of colchicine treatment, and subsequently in a long-term observational cohort study for a further 30 years. RESULTS: There were 49 Hepatic deaths in addition to 10 Liver Transplants (Hepatic death/transplant; n = 59). Some of these were associated with a significant variceal bleed within 3 months of death or transplant (Portal hypertension-associated death or transplant; n = 19). There were 63 deaths from all causes. During follow-up, oesophageal varices developed in 26 patients, whilst 17 bled from varices and 32 developed hepatic decompensation over a median follow-up of 18.1 years (1.9-28.5). Baseline HVPG was highly predictive of all 6 clinical outcomes and contributed significant predictive information additional to that provided by Mayo score and Ludwig stage. CONCLUSION: Measurement of baseline portal pressure is of significant prognostic value in primary biliary cholangitis.

General health in a cohort of children conceived after assisted reproductive technology in the United Kingdom: a population-based record-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Assisted reproductive technology use is increasing annually; however, data on long-term child health outcomes including hospital admissions are limited. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the potential effects of assisted reproductive technology on any and cause-specific hospital admissions unrelated to perinatal diagnoses. STUDY DESIGN: This was a population-based record-linkage study that included a previously established cohort of children born after assisted reproductive technology in the United Kingdom between 1997 and 2009 (n=63,877), their naturally conceived siblings (n=11,343), and matched naturally conceived population controls (n=127,544) linked to their postnatal health outcomes up to March 31, 2016 to provide robust risk estimates of the potential effects of assisted reproductive technology on any and cause-specific hospital admissions unrelated to perinatal diagnoses. In addition, comparison of hospital admissions by type of treatment was made. Cox regression was used to estimate the risk of hospital admission, and negative binomial regression was used to compare the number of hospital admissions per year. RESULTS: This study had 1.6 million person-years of follow-up (mean, 12.9 years; range, 0-19 years), and the mean age at the time of first hospital admission was 6.5 years (range, 0-19 years). Singletons born after assisted reproductive technology had increased risk of any hospital admission compared with naturally conceived population controls (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.10) but not naturally conceived siblings (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.09). We observed increased risk of diagnoses related to neoplasms and diseases of the respiratory, musculoskeletal, digestive, and genitourinary systems, and lower risk of injury, poisoning, and consequences of external causes compared with naturally conceived population controls. Children born after intracytoplasmic sperm injection had a lower risk of hospital admission compared with those born after in vitro fertilization, although no such differences were observed between children born after fresh embryo transfers and those born after frozen embryo transfers. CONCLUSION: Children born after assisted reproductive technology had greater numbers of hospital admissions compared with naturally conceived population controls. Attenuation of these differences in relation to their naturally conceived siblings suggested that this could be partially attributed to the influence of parental subfertility on child health, increased parental concerns, and an actual increase in morbidity in children born after assisted conception.

Scaling-up a pharmacist-led information technology intervention (PINCER) to reduce hazardous prescribing in general practices: Multiple interrupted time series study.

BACKGROUND: We previously reported on a randomised trial demonstrating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a pharmacist-led information technology intervention (PINCER). We sought to investigate whether PINCER was effective in reducing hazardous prescribing when rolled out at scale in UK general practices. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a multiple interrupted time series design whereby successive groups of general practices received the PINCER intervention between September 2015 and April 2017. We used 11 prescribing safety indicators to identify potentially hazardous prescribing and collected data over a maximum of 16 quarterly time periods. The primary outcome was a composite of all the indicators; a composite for indicators associated with gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding was also reported, along with 11 individual indicators of hazardous prescribing. Data were analysed using logistic mixed models for the quarterly event numbers with the appropriate denominator, and calendar time included as a covariate. PINCER was implemented in 370 (94.1%) of 393 general practices covering a population of almost 3 million patients in the East Midlands region of England; data were successfully extracted from 343 (92.7%) of these practices. For the primary composite outcome, the PINCER intervention was associated with a decrease in the rate of hazardous prescribing of 16.7% (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80 to 0.86) at 6 months and 15.3% (aOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.90) at 12 months postintervention. The unadjusted rate of hazardous prescribing reduced from 26.4% (22,503 patients in the numerator/853,631 patients in the denominator) to 20.1% (11,901 patients in the numerator/591,364 patients in the denominator) at 6 months and 19.1% (3,868 patients in the numerator/201,992 patients in the denominator). The greatest reduction in hazardous prescribing associated with the intervention was observed for the indicators associated with GI bleeding; for the GI composite indicator, there was a decrease of 23.9% at both 6 months (aOR 0.76, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.80) and 12 months (aOR 0.76, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.82) postintervention. The unadjusted rate of hazardous prescribing reduced from 31.4 (16,185 patients in the numerator/515,879 patients in the denominator) to 21.2% (7,607 patients in the numerator/358,349 patients in the denominator) at 6 months and 19.5% (2,369 patients in the numerator/121,534 patients in the denominator). We adjusted for calendar time and practice, but since this was an observational study, the findings may have been influenced by unknown confounding factors or behavioural changes unrelated to the PINCER intervention. Data were also not collected for all practices at 6 months and 12 months postintervention. CONCLUSIONS: The PINCER intervention, when rolled out at scale in routine clinical practice, was associated with a reduction in hazardous prescribing by 17% and 15% at 6 and 12 months postintervention. The greatest reductions in hazardous prescribing were for indicators associated with risk of GI bleeding. These findings support the wider national rollout of PINCER in England.

Does PGT-A improve assisted reproduction treatment success rates: what can the UK Register data tell us?

PURPOSE: To show how naïve analyses of aggregated UK ART Register data held by the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority to estimate the effects of PGT-A can be severely misleading and to indicate how it may be possible to do a more credible analysis. Given the limitations of the Register, we consider the extent to which such an analysis has the potential to answer questions about the real-world effectiveness of PGT-A. METHODS: We utilise the publicly available Register datasets and construct logistic regression models for live birth events (LBE) which adjust for confounding. We compare all PGT-A cycles to control groups of cycles that could have had PGT-A, excluding cycles that did not progress to having embryos for biopsy. RESULTS: The primary model gives an odds ratio for LBE of 0.82 (95% CI 0.68-1.00) suggesting PGT-A may be detrimental rather than beneficial. However, due to limitations in the availability of important variables in the public dataset, this cannot be considered a definitive estimate. We outline the steps required to enable a credible analysis of the Register data. CONCLUSION: If we compare like with like groups, we obtain estimates of the effect of PGT-A that suggest an overall modest reduction in treatment success rates. These are in direct contrast to an invalid comparison of crude success rates. A detailed analysis of a fuller dataset is warranted, but it remains to be demonstrated whether the UK Register data can provide useful estimates of the impact of PGT-A when used as a treatment add-on.

Postnatal cardiovascular morbidity following preterm pre-eclampsia: An observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the nature of postnatal cardiovascular morbidity following pregnancies complicated by preterm pre-eclampsia and investigate associations between pregnancy characteristics and maternal postnatal cardiovascular function. STUDY DESIGN: This was an observational sub-study of a single-centre feasibility randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial (https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; NCT03466333), involving women with preterm pre-eclampsia, delivering before 37 weeks. Eligible women underwent echocardiography, arteriography and blood pressure monitoring within three days of birth, six weeks and six months postpartum. Correlations between pregnancy and cardiovascular characteristics were assessed using Spearman's correlation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The prevalence of cardiovascular dysfunction and remodelling six months following preterm pre-eclampsia. RESULTS: Forty-four women completed the study. At six months, 27 (61 %) had diastolic dysfunction, 33 (75 %) had raised total vascular resistance (TVR) and 18 (41 %) had left ventricular remodelling. Sixteen (46 %) women had de novo hypertension by six months and only two (5 %) women had a completely normal echocardiogram. Echocardiography did not change significantly from six weeks to six months. Earlier gestation at delivery and lower birthweight centile were associated with worse six-month diastolic dysfunction (E/E': rho = -0.39, p = 0.001 & rho = -0.42, p = 0.005) and TVR (rho = -0.34, p = 0.02 & rho = -0.37, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Preterm pre-eclampsia is associated with persistent cardiovascular morbidity-six months postpartum in the majority of women. These cardiovascular changes have significant implications for long-term cardiovascular health. The graded severity of diastolic dysfunction and TVR with worsening pre-eclampsia phenotype suggests a dose-effect. However, the mechanistic link remains uncertain.

Better maternity care pathways in pregnancies after stillbirth or neonatal death: a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Around 1 in 150 babies are stillborn or die in the first month of life in the UK. Most women conceive again, and subsequent pregnancies are often characterised by feelings of stress and anxiety, persisting beyond the birth. Psychological distress increases the risk of poor pregnancy outcomes and longer-term parenting difficulties. Appropriate emotional support in subsequent pregnancies is key to ensure the wellbeing of women and families. Substantial variability in existing care has been reported, including fragmentation and poor communication. A new care package improving midwifery continuity and access to emotional support during subsequent pregnancy could improve outcomes. However, no study has assessed the feasibility of a full-scale trial to test effectiveness in improving outcomes and cost-effectiveness for the National Health Service (NHS). METHODS: A prospective, mixed-methods pre-and post-cohort study, in two Northwest England Maternity Units. Thirty-eight women, (≤ 20 weeks' gestation, with a previous stillbirth, or neonatal death) were offered the study intervention (allocation of a named midwife care coordinator and access to group and online support). Sixteen women receiving usual care were recruited in the 6 months preceding implementation of the intervention. Outcome data were collected at 2 antenatal and 1 postnatal visit(s). Qualitative interviews captured experiences of care and research processes with women (n = 20), partners (n = 5), and midwives (n = 8). RESULTS: Overall recruitment was 90% of target, and 77% of women completed the study. A diverse sample reflected the local population, but non-English speaking was a barrier to participation. Study processes and data collection methods were acceptable. Those who received increased midwifery continuity valued the relationship with the care coordinator and perceived positive impacts on pregnancy experiences. However, the anticipated increase in antenatal continuity for direct midwife contacts was not observed for the intervention group. Take-up of in-person support groups was also limited. CONCLUSIONS: Women and partners welcomed the opportunity to participate in research. Continuity of midwifery care was supported as a beneficial strategy to improve care and support in pregnancy after the death of a baby by both parents and professionals. Important barriers to implementation included changes in leadership, service pressures and competing priorities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17447733 first registration 13/02/2018.

Live birth rate following undisturbed embryo culture at low oxygen in a time-lapse incubator compared to a high-quality benchtop incubator.

Time-lapse (TL) incubators are increasingly used in in vitro fertilization (IVF) laboratories but there have been few studies of their effectiveness in comparison to other incubator types. Moreover, the design of most studies has been limited by the quality of the control incubator. We have therefore performed a one-year pseudo-randomized prospective study of IVF cycles using a TL incubator (EmbryoScope™) (n = 243) or a conventional incubator (K-System G-185 Flatbed) (n = 203). The two groups were well matched in terms of clinical parameters: IVF cycle attempt number, IVF/ICSI, age, number and day (3 or 5) of embryo transfer. Embryos were selected for transfer using conventional (non-TL) morphological grading. The EmbryoScope group had an increased chance of a live birth (43.2% vs. 34.5%; OR = 1.43 [95%CI: 0.96-2.13]) with significantly reduced early pregnancy loss (5.8% vs. 13.8%; OR = 0.37 [0.19-0.74]) compared to the K-System incubator. There was a higher proportion of 4-cell embryos on day 2 and 8-cell embryos on day 3 in the EmbryoScope, compared to the K-Systems. The use of TL incubators is appropriate in ART by virtue of their high specification, facility for low oxygen culture and provision of minimally disturbed culture conditions which limit exposure of human embryos to environmental stress.

Metformin treatment vs a diabetes model of prenatal care in women with mild fasting hyperglycemia diagnosed in pregnancy: a feasibility study.

INTRODUCTION: Guidelines disagree on the diagnostic thresholds for gestational diabetes (GDM); treatment of women with mild fasting hyperglycemia may not be cost-effective and increase unnecessary intervention. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Single-center, open-label randomized controlled feasibility trial (ISRCTN86503951). "Metformin" treatment (2 g/day) without home blood glucose monitoring (HBGM) compared to NICE "standard" diabetes prenatal care in women with fasting 5.1-5.4 mmol/L, 2H <8.5 mmol/L) at oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). RESULTS: Process outcome: From the 173 women approached, 40/147 (27%) met the eligibility criteria and agreed to participate (non-completion n = 3). All women received dietary advice. Overall, compliance was good; with the majority of women in the treatment arm reporting missing metformin tablets less than 1-3 times/week. In the treatment arm (n = 18), median compliance (returned packets) was 65% [0-98%]; four women were unable to tolerate the full recommended dose of metformin. All women reported being satisfied with their treatment; with 9 out of 18 women (metformin arm) reporting they would choose the same treatment in a future pregnancy however 8 women reported they would want closer prenatal monitoring. Clinical outcome: Baseline characteristics and pregnancy outcomes were not different between participants and non-participants (n = 133). In women randomized to the standard care arm who performed HBGM, 15/19 were prescribed metformin based on values above target despite diet and lifestyle modifications; two women required additional insulin (10%). Data on glycemic control were available for 16/19 women; a reduction in fasting and post-prandial glucose was achieved in 15/16 from recruitment to 36 weeks. There was no change in A1C in women in the treatment arm vs the standard care arm. There was no difference in the rates of LGA between participants (n = 40) and non-participants (n = 133), although there was a reduction in the median birthweight centiles in the participants, the majority of whom received metformin treatment, compared with the non-participants (35 [IQR 12-54] vs 52 [25-78]; p = .045). DISCUSSION: Treatment with metformin in conjunction with routine care was acceptable to women with mild fasting hyperglycemia who participated in the trial, although overall recruitment to the study was low. Most women with mild fasting hyperglycemia (5.1-5.4 mmol/L) would meet the threshold for pharmacological treatment if identified as GDM based on current NICE guideline target blood glucose levels. However, given the low consent rate, it is unlikely that a future RCT comparing metformin treatment (in conjunction with routine prenatal care and without HBGM monitoring) to a diabetes prenatal clinic model of care would have the generalisability to inform the future management of this group.

Prospective validation of a virtual clinic pathway in the management of choroidal naevi: the NAEVUS study Report no. 1: safety assessment.

BACKGROUND: Choroidal naevi are a common incidental finding prompting specialist referrals to ocular oncology. Rarely, such lesions have sufficient suspicious features to diagnose a small melanoma. The aim of the study is to show that 'virtual' imaging-based pathways are a safe and efficient option to manage such referrals. METHODS: A prospective cohort study at the Manchester Royal Eye Hospital and Moorfields Eye Hospital between June 2016 and July 2017 of the management decision of 400 patients reviewed by an ophthalmologist in a face-to-face consultation (gold standard) supported by fundus photography, optical coherence tomography, autofluorescence (AF) and B-mode ultrasound. The images were also read independently by blinded graders (non-medical) and blinded ophthalmologists, and a management decision was made based on image review alone (virtual pathway). The two pathways were compared for safety. RESULTS: The agreement for management decisions between face-to-face and virtual pathways was 83.1% (non-medical) and 82.6% (medical). There were more over-referrals in the virtual pathway (non-medical 24.3%, medical 23.3% of gold standard discharge) and only two under-referrals (10.5% of gold standard referrals), both borderline cases with minimal clinical risk. The agreement for risk factors of growth (orange pigment, subretinal fluid, hyper-AF) ranged between 82.3% and 97.3%. CONCLUSIONS: We prospectively validated a virtual clinic model for the safe management of choroidal naevi. Such a model of care is feasible with low rate of under-referral. An over-referral rate of almost 24% from the vitrual pathway needs to be factored into designing such pathways in conjunction with evidence on their cost-effectiveness.

A prospective cohort study providing insights for markers of adverse pregnancy outcome in older mothers.

BACKGROUND: Advanced maternal age (≥35 years) is associated with increased rates of adverse pregnancy outcome. Better understanding of underlying pathophysiological processes may improve identification of older mothers who are at greatest risk. This study aimed to investigate changes in oxidative stress and inflammation in older women and identify clinical and biochemical predictors of adverse pregnancy outcome in older women. METHODS: The Manchester Advanced Maternal Age Study (MAMAS) was a multicentre, observational, prospective cohort study of 528 mothers. Participants were divided into three age groups for comparison 20-30 years (n = 154), 35-39 years (n = 222) and ≥ 40 years (n = 152). Demographic and medical data were collected along with maternal blood samples at 28 and 36 weeks' gestation. Multivariable analysis was conducted to identify variables associated with adverse outcome, defined as one or more of: small for gestational age (< 10th centile), FGR (<5th centile), stillbirth, NICU admission, preterm birth < 37 weeks' gestation or Apgar score < 7 at 5 min. Biomarkers of inflammation, oxidative stress and placental dysfunction were quantified in maternal serum. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression was used to identify associations with adverse fetal outcome. RESULTS: Maternal smoking was associated with adverse outcome irrespective of maternal age (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 4.22, 95% Confidence Interval (95%CI) 1.83, 9.75), whereas multiparity reduced the odds (AOR 0.54, 95% CI 0.33, 0.89). In uncomplicated pregnancies in older women, lower circulating anti-inflammatory IL-10, IL-RA and increased antioxidant capacity (TAC) were seen. In older mothers with adverse outcome, TAC and oxidative stress markers were increased and levels of maternal circulating placental hormones (hPL, PlGF and sFlt-1) were reduced (p < 0.05). However, these biomarkers only had modest predictive accuracy, with the largest area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) of 0.74 for placental growth factor followed by TAC (AUROC = 0.69). CONCLUSIONS: This study identified alterations in circulating inflammatory and oxidative stress markers in older women with adverse outcome providing preliminary evidence of mechanistic links. Further, larger studies are required to determine if these markers can be developed into a predictive model of an individual older woman's risk of adverse pregnancy outcome, enabling a reduction in stillbirth rates whilst minimising unnecessary intervention.

Seasonal patterns of malaria, genital infection, nutritional and iron status in non-pregnant and pregnant adolescents in Burkina Faso: a secondary analysis of trial data.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents are considered at high risk of developing iron deficiency. Studies in children indicate that the prevalence of iron deficiency increased with malaria transmission, suggesting malaria seasonally may drive iron deficiency. This paper examines monthly seasonal infection patterns of malaria, abnormal vaginal flora, chorioamnionitis, antibiotic and antimalarial prescriptions, in relation to changes in iron biomarkers and nutritional indices in adolescents living in a rural area of Burkina Faso, in order to assess the requirement for seasonal infection control and nutrition interventions. METHODS: Data collected between April 2011 and January 2014 were available for an observational seasonal analysis, comprising scheduled visits for 1949 non-pregnant adolescents (≤19 years), (315 of whom subsequently became pregnant), enrolled in a randomised trial of periconceptional iron supplementation. Data from trial arms were combined. Body Iron Stores (BIS) were calculated using an internal regression for ferritin to allow for inflammation. At recruitment 11% had low BIS (< 0 mg/kg). Continuous outcomes were fitted to a mixed-effects linear model with month, age and pregnancy status as fixed effect covariates and woman as a random effect. Dichotomous infection outcomes were fitted with analogous logistic regression models. RESULTS: Seasonal variation in malaria parasitaemia prevalence ranged between 18 and 70% in non-pregnant adolescents (P < 0.001), peaking at 81% in those who became pregnant. Seasonal variation occurred in antibiotic prescription rates (0.7-1.8 prescriptions/100 weekly visits, P < 0.001) and chorioamnionitis prevalence (range 15-68%, P = 0.026). Mucosal vaginal lactoferrin concentration was lower at the end of the wet season (range 2-22 µg/ml, P < 0.016), when chorioamnionitis was least frequent. BIS fluctuated annually by up to 53.2% per year around the mean BIS (5.1 mg/kg2, range 4.1-6.8 mg/kg), with low BIS (< 0 mg/kg) of 8.7% in the dry and 9.8% in the wet seasons (P = 0.36). Median serum transferrin receptor increased during the wet season (P < 0.001). Higher hepcidin concentration in the wet season corresponded with rising malaria prevalence and use of prescriptions, but with no change in BIS. Mean Body Mass Index and Mid-Upper-Arm-Circumference values peaked mid-dry season (both P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis supports preventive treatment of malaria among adolescents 15-19 years to decrease their disease burden, especially asymptomatic malaria. As BIS were adequate in most adolescents despite seasonal malaria, a requirement for programmatic iron supplementation was not substantiated.

Effects of a disposable home electro-stimulation device (Pelviva) for the treatment of female urinary incontinence: a randomised controlled trial.

AIMS: To compare current General Medical Practitioner treatment as usual (TAU) for the treatment of female urinary incontinence with a novel disposable home electro-stimulation device (Pelviva). METHODS: Open label, Primary Care post-market evaluation. 86 women with urinary incontinence were randomly assigned to one of two 12-week treatments: TAU or Pelviva for 30 min every other day plus TAU. Outcome measures included ICIQ-UI (primary), PISQ-IR, PGI-S / PGI-I and FSFI (secondary) at recruitment and immediately after intervention, 1-h pad test at recruitment and usage diaries throughout. RESULTS: Pelviva plus TAU produced significantly better outcome than TAU alone: 3 versus 1 point for ICIQ-UI (Difference - 1.8 95% CI: - 3.5 to - 0.1, P = 0.033). Significant differences were also observed for PGI-I at both 6 weeks (P = 0.001) and 12 weeks (P < 0.001). In the Pelviva group, 17% of women described themselves as feeling very much better and 54% a little or much better compared to 0% and 15% in the TAU. Overall PISQ-IR score reached statistical significance (P = 0.032) seemingly related to impact (P = 0.027). No other outcome measures reached statistical significance. Premature termination due to COVID-19 meant only 86 women were recruited from a sample size of 264. TAU did not reflect NICE guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests Pelviva is more successful than TAU in treating urinary incontinence in Primary Care. The study had reduced power due to early termination due to COVID-19 and suggests TAU does not follow NICE guidelines.

The implications of outcome truncation in reproductive medicine RCTs: a simulation platform for trialists and simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials in reproductive medicine are often subject to outcome truncation, where the study outcomes are only defined in a subset of the randomised cohort. Examples include birthweight (measurable only in the subgroup of participants who give birth) and miscarriage (which can only occur in participants who become pregnant). These outcomes are typically analysed by making a comparison between treatment arms within the subgroup (for example, comparing birthweights in the subgroup who gave birth or miscarriages in the subgroup who became pregnant). However, this approach does not represent a randomised comparison when treatment influences the probability of being observed (i.e. survival). The practical implications of this for the design and interpretation of reproductive trials are unclear however. METHODS: We developed a simulation platform to investigate the implications of outcome truncation for reproductive medicine trials. We used this to perform a simulation study, in which we considered the bias, type 1 error, coverage, and precision of standard statistical analyses for truncated continuous and binary outcomes. Simulation settings were informed by published assisted reproduction trials. RESULTS: Increasing treatment effect on the intermediate variable, strength of confounding between the intermediate and outcome variables, and the presence of an interaction between treatment and confounder were found to adversely affect performance. However, within parameter ranges we would consider to be more realistic, the adverse effects were generally not drastic. For binary outcomes, the study highlighted that outcome truncation could cause separation in smaller studies, where none or all of the participants in a study arm experience the outcome event. This was found to have severe consequences for inferences. CONCLUSION: We have provided a simulation platform that can be used by researchers in the design and interpretation of reproductive medicine trials subject to outcome truncation and have used this to conduct a simulation study. The study highlights several key factors which trialists in the field should consider carefully to protect against erroneous inferences. Standard analyses of truncated binary outcomes in small studies may be highly biassed, and it remains to identify suitable approaches for analysing data in this context.

Diagnosing Asthma with and without Aerosol-Generating Procedures.

BACKGROUND: Asthma diagnostic guidelines require procedures with aerosol-generating potential (aerosol-generating procedures [AGPs]) to guide decision making. Restricted access to AGPs poses significant challenges in primary care and resource-poor countries, further amplified during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: To establish an approach to asthma diagnosis that does not require AGPs. METHOD: Symptomatic yet untreated (beyond as-required bronchodilator use) adults with clinician-suspected asthma and maximum 10 pack year smoking history were recruited. Clinical history, physical examination, spirometry with bronchodilator reversibility, home peak flow monitoring, and bronchial challenges were performed, and fractional exhaled nitric oxide and serum eosinophils measured. Tests were then repeated following treatment with inhaled corticosteroids before an asthma diagnosis was confirmed or refuted by an expert panel. RESULTS: A total of 65 adults (mean age, 34.8 ± 12.2 years) were recruited. Five were excluded as "unclassifiable," because of borderline results or missing data. Of the remainder, 36 were diagnosed with asthma and 24 were not. Using data from non-AGPs only (wheeze on auscultation and blood eosinophilia) and home peak flow variability, a "rule-in" diagnostic model provided comparable discriminative ability to the application of established guidelines. Clinical suspicion of asthma together with at least 1 positive non-AGP test result provided a sensitivity of 55%, specificity of 100%, positive predictive value of 100%, and negative predictive value of 60%. Application of this model reduced the need for spirometry-based tests by one-third. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed diagnostic algorithm may be clinically useful in "ruling-in" asthma in adults when access to AGPs is limited. This algorithm is not suitable for those with low clinical probability, with a significant smoking history, or where alternative diagnoses are more likely. This pragmatic approach to asthma diagnosis merits prospective validation.

Cohort profile: a national, population-based cohort of children born after assisted conception in the UK (1992-2009): methodology and birthweight analysis.

PURPOSE: To generate a large cohort of children born after assisted reproductive technology (ART) in the UK between 1992 and 2009, their naturally conceived siblings (NCS) and matched naturally conceived population (NCP) controls and linking this with health outcome data to allow exploration of the effects of ART. The effects of fresh and frozen embryo transfer on birth weight (BW) were analysed to test the validity of the cohort. PARTICIPANTS: Children recorded on the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) register as being born after ART between 1992 and 2009, their NCS and matched NCP controls linked to Office for National Statistics birth registration dataset (HFEA-ONS cohort). This cohort was further linked to the UK Hospital Episode Statistics database to allow monitoring of the child's post-natal health outcomes up to 2015 (HFEA-ONS-HES subcohort). FINDINGS TO DATE: The HFEA-ONS cohort consisted of 75 348 children born after non-donor ART carried out in the UK between 1 April 1992 and 31 July 2009 and successfully linked to birth registration records, 14 763 NCS and 164 823 matched NCP controls. The HFEA-ONS-HES subcohort included 63 877 ART, 11 343 NCS and 127 544 matched NCP controls further linked to health outcome data. The exemplar analysis showed that children born after fresh embryo transfers were lighter (BW difference: -131 g, 95% CI: -140 to -123) and those born after frozen embryo transfers were heavier (BW difference: 35 g, 95% CI: 19 to 52) than the NCP controls. The within-sibling analyses were directionally consistent with the population control analyses, but attenuated markedly for the fresh versus natural conception (BW difference: -54 g; 95% CI: -72 to -36) and increased markedly for the frozen versus natural conception (BW difference: 152 g; 95% CI: 113 to 190) analyses. FUTURE PLANS: To use this cohort to explore the relationship between ART conception and short-term and long-term health outcomes in offspring.