Prairie dog responses to vector control and vaccination during an initial Yersinia pestis invasion.

We evaluated the invasion of plague bacteria Yersinia pestis into a population of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus; BTPDs) in South Dakota. We aimed to ascertain if Y. pestis invaded slowly or rapidly, and to determine if vector (flea) control or vaccination of BTPDs assisted in increasing survival rates. We sampled BTPDs in 2007 (before Y. pestis documentation), 2008 (year of confirmed invasion), and 2009 (after invasion). We estimated annual BTPD re-encounter rates on three 9-ha plots treated annually with deltamethrin dust for flea control and three 9-ha plots lacking dust. In 2007 and 2008, approximately half the adult BTPDs live-trapped were injected subcutaneously with either an experimental plague vaccine (F1-V fusion protein) or placebo formulation; the remaining individuals were not inoculated. From 2007 to 2009, we sampled 1559 BTPDs on 2542 occasions. During 2007-2008, the prevalence and intensity of fleas on BTPDs were 69-97% lower on the dusted vs. no dust plots. From 2007 to 2008, the annual re-encounter rate of non-inoculated BTPDs was 150% higher on the dusted vs. no dust plots. During the same interval on the dusted plots, the re-encounter rate was 55% higher for vaccinated adult female BTPDs vs. nonvaccinated adult females, but the annual re-encounter rate was 19% lower for vaccinated adult males. By late August 2008, BTPDs were nearly extirpated from the no dust plots. During 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 on the dusted plots, which persisted, the BTPD re-encounter rate was 41% higher for vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated adult females but 35% lower for vaccinated adult males. Yersinia pestis erupted with vigor as it invaded. Flea control enhanced BTPD survival but did not offer full protection. Flea control and F1-V vaccination seemed to have additive, positive effects on adult females. Annual re-encounter rates were reduced for vaccinated adult males; additional experimentation is needed to further evaluate this trend.

Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir.

Predicting the spatial occurrence of wildlife is a major challenge for ecology and management. In Latin America, limited knowledge of the number and locations of vampire bat roosts precludes informed allocation of measures intended to prevent rabies spillover to humans and livestock. We inferred the spatial distribution of vampire bat roosts while accounting for observation effort and environmental effects by fitting a log Gaussian Cox process model to the locations of 563 roosts in three regions of Peru. Our model explained 45% of the variance in the observed roost distribution and identified environmental drivers of roost establishment. When correcting for uneven observation effort, our model estimated a total of 2340 roosts, indicating that undetected roosts (76%) exceed known roosts (24%) by threefold. Predicted hotspots of undetected roosts in rabies-free areas revealed high-risk areas for future viral incursions. Using the predicted roost distribution to inform a spatial model of rabies spillover to livestock identified areas with disproportionate underreporting and indicated a higher rabies burden than previously recognized. We provide a transferrable approach to infer the distribution of a mostly unobserved bat reservoir that can inform strategies to prevent the re-emergence of an important zoonosis.

Monkeypox Virus in Animals: Current Knowledge of Viral Transmission and Pathogenesis in Wild Animal Reservoirs and Captive Animal Models.

Mpox, formerly called monkeypox, is now the most serious orthopoxvirus (OPXV) infection in humans. This zoonotic disease has been gradually re-emerging in humans with an increasing frequency of cases found in endemic areas, as well as an escalating frequency and size of epidemics outside of endemic areas in Africa. Currently, the largest known mpox epidemic is spreading throughout the world, with over 85,650 cases to date, mostly in Europe and North America. These increased endemic cases and epidemics are likely driven primarily by decreasing global immunity to OPXVs, along with other possible causes. The current unprecedented global outbreak of mpox has demonstrated higher numbers of human cases and greater human-to-human transmission than previously documented, necessitating an urgent need to better understand this disease in humans and animals. Monkeypox virus (MPXV) infections in animals, both naturally occurring and experimental, have provided critical information about the routes of transmission; the viral pathogenicity factors; the methods of control, such as vaccination and antivirals; the disease ecology in reservoir host species; and the conservation impacts on wildlife species. This review briefly described the epidemiology and transmission of MPXV between animals and humans and summarizes past studies on the ecology of MPXV in wild animals and experimental studies in captive animal models, with a focus on how animal infections have informed knowledge concerning various aspects of this pathogen. Knowledge gaps were highlighted in areas where future research, both in captive and free-ranging animals, could inform efforts to understand and control this disease in both humans and animals.

Sex-biased infections scale to population impacts for an emerging wildlife disease.

Demographic factors are fundamental in shaping infectious disease dynamics. Aspects of populations that create structure, like age and sex, can affect patterns of transmission, infection intensity and population outcomes. However, studies rarely link these processes from individual to population-scale effects. Moreover, the mechanisms underlying demographic differences in disease are frequently unclear. Here, we explore sex-biased infections for a multi-host fungal disease of bats, white-nose syndrome, and link disease-associated mortality between sexes, the distortion of sex ratios and the potential mechanisms underlying sex differences in infection. We collected data on host traits, infection intensity and survival of five bat species at 42 sites across seven years. We found females were more infected than males for all five species. Females also had lower apparent survival over winter and accounted for a smaller proportion of populations over time. Notably, female-biased infections were evident by early hibernation and likely driven by sex-based differences in autumn mating behaviour. Male bats were more active during autumn which likely reduced replication of the cool-growing fungus. Higher disease impacts in female bats may have cascading effects on bat populations beyond the hibernation season by limiting recruitment and increasing the risk of Allee effects.

Immunogenicity, Safety, and Anti-Viral Efficacy of a Subunit SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Candidate in Captive Black-Footed Ferrets (Mustela nigripes) and Their Susceptibility to Viral Challenge.

A preliminary vaccination trial against the emergent pathogen, SARS-CoV-2, was completed in captive black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes; BFF) to assess safety, immunogenicity, and anti-viral efficacy. Vaccination and boosting of 15 BFF with purified SARS-CoV-2 S1 subunit protein produced a nearly 150-fold increase in mean antibody titers compared to pre-vaccination titers. Serum antibody responses were highest in young animals, but in all vaccinees, antibody response declined rapidly. Anti-viral activity from vaccinated and unvaccinated BFF was determined in vitro, as well as in vivo with a passive serum transfer study in mice. Transgenic mice that received BFF serum transfers and were subsequently challenged with SARS-CoV-2 had lung viral loads that negatively correlated (p < 0.05) with the BFF serum titer received. Lastly, an experimental challenge study in a small group of BFF was completed to test susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2. Despite viral replication and shedding in the upper respiratory tract for up to 7 days post-challenge, no clinical disease was observed in either vaccinated or naive animals. The lack of morbidity or mortality observed indicates SARS-CoV-2 is unlikely to affect wild BFF populations, but infected captive animals pose a potential risk, albeit low, for humans and other animals.

Social effects of rabies infection in male vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus).

Rabies virus (RABV) transmitted by the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus) poses a threat to agricultural development and public health throughout the Neotropics. The ecology and evolution of rabies host-pathogen dynamics are influenced by two infection-induced behavioural changes. RABV-infected hosts often exhibit increased aggression which facilitates transmission, and rabies also leads to reduced activity and paralysis prior to death. Although several studies document rabies-induced behavioural changes in rodents and other dead-end hosts, surprisingly few studies have measured these changes in vampire bats, the key natural reservoir throughout Latin America. Taking advantage of an experiment designed to test an oral rabies vaccine in captive male vampire bats, we quantify for the first time, to our knowledge, how rabies affects allogrooming and aggressive behaviours in this species. Compared to non-rabid vampire bats, rabid individuals reduced their allogrooming prior to death, but we did not detect increases in aggression among bats. To put our results in context, we review what is known and what remains unclear about behavioural changes of rabid vampire bats (resumen en español, electronic supplementary material, S1).

Potential Effects of Environmental Conditions on Prairie Dog Flea Development and Implications for Sylvatic Plague Epizootics.

Fleas are common ectoparasites of vertebrates worldwide and vectors of many pathogens causing disease, such as sylvatic plague in prairie dog colonies. Development of fleas is regulated by environmental conditions, especially temperature and relative humidity. Development rates are typically slower at low temperatures and faster at high temperatures, which are bounded by lower and upper thresholds where development is reduced. Prairie dogs and their associated fleas (mostly Oropsylla spp) live in burrows that moderate outside environmental conditions, remaining cooler in summer and warmer in winter. We found burrow microclimates were characterized by stable daily temperatures and high relative humidity, with temperatures increasing from spring through summer. We previously showed temperature increases corresponded with increasing off-host flea abundance. To evaluate how changes in temperature could affect future prairie dog flea development and abundance, we used development rates of O. montana (a species related to prairie dog fleas), determined how prairie dog burrow microclimates are affected by ambient weather, and combined these results to develop a predictive model. Our model predicts burrow temperatures and flea development rates will increase during the twenty-first century, potentially leading to higher flea abundance and an increased probability of plague epizootics if Y. pestis is present.

A recombinant rabies vaccine that prevents viral shedding in rabid common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus).

Vampire bat transmitted rabies (VBR) is a continuing burden to public health and agricultural sectors in Latin America, despite decades-long efforts to control the disease by culling bat populations. Culling has been shown to disperse bats, leading to an increased spread of rabies. Thus, non-lethal strategies to control VBR, such as vaccination, are desired. Here, we evaluated the safety and efficacy of a viral-vectored recombinant mosaic glycoprotein rabies vaccine candidate (RCN-MoG) in vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) of unknown history of rabies exposure captured in México and transported to the United States. Vaccination with RCN-MoG was demonstrated to be safe, even in pregnant females, as no evidence of lesions or adverse effects were observed. We detected rabies neutralizing antibodies in 28% (8/29) of seronegative bats post-vaccination. Survival proportions of adult bats after rabies virus (RABV) challenge ranged from 55-100% and were not significantly different among treatments, pre- or post-vaccination serostatus, and route of vaccination, while eight pups (1-2.5 months of age) used as naïve controls all succumbed to challenge (P<0.0001). Importantly, we found that vaccination with RCN-MoG appeared to block viral shedding, even when infection proved lethal. Using real-time PCR, we did not detect RABV nucleic acid in the saliva samples of 9/10 vaccinated bats that succumbed to rabies after challenge (one was inconclusive). In contrast, RABV nucleic acid was detected in saliva samples from 71% of unvaccinated bats (10/14 sampled, plus one inconclusive) that died of the disease, including pups. Low seroconversion rates post-vaccination and high survival of non-vaccinated bats, perhaps due to earlier natural exposure, limited our conclusions regarding vaccine efficacy. However, our findings suggest a potential transmission-blocking effect of vaccination with RCN-MoG that could provide a promising strategy for controlling VBR in Latin America beyond longstanding culling programs.

Impact of Molecular Modifications on the Immunogenicity and Efficacy of Recombinant Raccoon Poxvirus-Vectored Rabies Vaccine Candidates in Mice.

Rabies is an ancient disease that is responsible for approximately 59,000 human deaths annually. Bats (Order Chiroptera) are thought to be the original hosts of rabies virus (RABV) and currently account for most rabies cases in wildlife in the Americas. Vaccination is being used to manage rabies in other wildlife reservoirs like fox and raccoon, but no rabies vaccine is available for bats. We previously developed a recombinant raccoonpox virus (RCN) vaccine candidate expressing a mosaic glycoprotein (MoG) gene that protected mice and big brown bats when challenged with RABV. In this study, we developed two new recombinant RCN candidates expressing MoG (RCN-tPA-MoG and RCN-SS-TD-MoG) with the aim of improving RCN-MoG. We assessed and compared in vitro expression, in vivo immunogenicity, and protective efficacy in vaccinated mice challenged intracerebrally with RABV. All three candidates induced significant humoral immune responses, and inoculation with RCN-tPA-MoG or RCN-MoG significantly increased survival after RABV challenge. These results demonstrate the importance of considering molecular elements in the design of vaccines, and that vaccination with either RCN-tPA-MoG or RCN-MoG confers adequate protection from rabies infection, and either may be a sufficient vaccine candidate for bats in future work.

Characterizing patterns of genomic variation in the threatened Utah prairie dog: Implications for conservation and management.

Utah prairie dogs (Cynomys parvidens) are federally threatened due to eradication campaigns, habitat destruction, and outbreaks of plague. Today, Utah prairie dogs exist in small, isolated populations, making them less demographically stable and more susceptible to erosion of genetic variation by genetic drift. We characterized patterns of genetic structure at neutral and putatively adaptive loci in order to evaluate the relative effects of genetic drift and local adaptation on population divergence. We sampled individuals across the Utah prairie dog species range and generated 2955 single nucleotide polymorphisms using double digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing. Genetic diversity was lower in low-elevation sites compared to high-elevation sites. Population divergence was high among sites and followed an isolation-by-distance model. Our results indicate that genetic drift plays a substantial role in the population divergence of the Utah prairie dog, and colonies would likely benefit from translocation of individuals between recovery units, which are characterized by distinct elevations, despite the detection of environmental associations with outlier loci. By understanding the processes that shape genetic structure, better informed decisions can be made with respect to the management of threatened species to ensure that adaptation is not stymied.

Moderate Susceptibility to Subcutaneous Plague (Yersinia pestis) Challenge in Vaccine-Treated and Untreated Sonoran Deer Mice (Peromyscus maniculatus sonoriensis) and Northern Grasshopper Mice (Onychomys leucogaster).

The variable response of wild mice to Yersinia pestis infection, the causative agent of plague, has generated much speculation concerning their role in the ecology of this potentially lethal disease. Researchers have questioned the means by which Y. pestis is maintained in nature and also sought methods for managing the disease. Here we assessed the efficacy of a new tool, the sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV), in wild-caught northern grasshopper mice (Onychomys leucogaster) and commercially acquired Sonoran deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus sonoriensis). More than 40% of the animals survived a subcutaneous Y. pestis challenge of 175,000 colony forming units (over 30,000 times the white mouse 50% lethal dose) in both vaccine-treated and control groups. Our results indicate that SPV distribution is unlikely to protect adult mice from plague infection in field settings and corroborate the heterogeneous response to Y. pestis infection in mice reported by others.

Impacts of environmental conditions on fleas in black-tailed prairie dog burrows.

Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis and transmitted by fleas, occurs in prairie dogs of the western United States. Outbreaks can devastate prairie dog communities, often causing nearly 100% mortality. Three competent flea vectors, prairie dog specialists Oropsylla hirsuta and O. tuberculata, and generalist Pulex simulans, are found on prairie dogs and in their burrows. Fleas are affected by climate, which varies across the range of black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus), but these effects may be ameliorated somewhat due to the burrowing habits of prairie dogs. Our goal was to assess how temperature and precipitation affect off-host flea abundance and whether relative flea abundance varied across the range of black-tailed prairie dogs. Flea abundance was measured by swabbing 300 prairie dog burrows at six widely distributed sites in early and late summer of 2016 and 2017. Relative abundance of flea species varied among sites and sampling sessions. Flea abundance and prevalence increased with monthly mean high temperature and declined with higher winter precipitation. Predicted climate change in North America will likely influence flea abundance and distribution, thereby impacting plague dynamics in prairie dog colonies.

Clinical Presentation and Serologic Response during a Rabies Epizootic in Captive Common Vampire Bats (Desmodus rotundus).

We report mortality events in a group of 123 common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) captured in México and housed for a rabies vaccine efficacy study in Madison, Wisconsin. Bat mortalities occurred in México and Wisconsin, but rabies cases reported herein are only those that occurred after arrival in Madison (n = 15). Bats were confirmed positive for rabies virus (RABV) by the direct fluorescent antibody test. In accordance with previous reports, we observed long incubation periods (more than 100 days), variability in clinical signs prior to death, excretion of virus in saliva, and changes in rabies neutralizing antibody (rVNA) titers post-infection. We observed that the furious form of rabies (aggression, hyper-salivation, and hyper-excitability) manifested in three bats, which has not been reported in vampire bat studies since 1936. RABV was detected in saliva of 5/9 bats, 2-5 days prior to death, but was not detected in four of those bats that had been vaccinated shortly after exposure. Bats from different capture sites were involved in two separate outbreaks, and phylogenetic analysis revealed differences in the glycoprotein gene sequences of RABV isolated from each event, indicating that two different lineages were circulating separately during capture at each site.

Rabies Outbreak in Captive Big Brown Bats (Eptesicus fuscus) Used in a White-Nose Syndrome Vaccine Trial.

An outbreak of rabies occurred in a captive colony of wild-caught big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus). Five of 27 bats exhibited signs of rabies virus infection 22-51 d after capture or 18-22 d after contact with the index case. Rabid bats showed weight loss, aggression, increased vocalization, hypersalivation, and refusal of food. Antigenic typing and virus sequencing confirmed that all five bats were infected with an identical rabies virus variant that circulates in E. fuscus in the US. Two bats with no signs of rabies virus infection were seropositive for rabies virus-neutralizing antibodies; the brains of these bats had no detectable viral proteins by the direct fluorescence antibody test. We suspect bat-to-bat transmission of rabies virus occurred among our bats because all rabies-infected bats were confined to the cage housing the index case and were infected with viruses having identical sequences of the entire rabies nucleoprotein gene. This outbreak illustrates the risk of rabies virus infection in captive bats and highlights the need for researchers using bats to assume that all wild bats could be infected with rabies virus.

FLEA PARASITISM AND HOST SURVIVAL IN A PLAGUE-RELEVANT SYSTEM: THEORETICAL AND CONSERVATION IMPLICATIONS.

Plague is a bacterial zoonosis of mammalian hosts and flea vectors. The disease is capable of ravaging rodent populations and transforming ecosystems. Because plague mortality is likely to be predicted by flea parasitism, it is critical to understand vector dynamics. It has been hypothesized that paltry precipitation and reduced vegetative production predispose herbivorous rodents to malnourishment and flea parasitism, and flea parasitism varies directly with plague mortality. We evaluated these hypotheses on five colonies of Utah prairie dogs (UPDs; Cynomys parvidens), on the Awapa Plateau, Utah, US, in 2013-16. Ten flea species were identified among 3,257 fleas from UPDs. These 10 flea species parasitize prairie dogs, mice, rats, voles, ground squirrels, chipmunks, and marmots, all known hosts of plague. The abundance of fleas on individual UPDs (1,198 observations) varied inversely with UPD body condition; fleas were most abundant on lightweight, malnourished UPDs. Flea abundance on UPDs was highest in dry years that were preceded by wet years. Increased precipitation and soil moisture in the prior year might generate humid microclimates in UPD burrows (that could facilitate flea survival and reproduction) and paltry precipitation in the current year could predispose UPDs to malnourishment and flea parasitism. Annual re-encounter rates for UPDs (1,072 observations) were reduced in wetter years preceded by drier years; reduced precipitation and vegetative production might kill UPDs, and increased flea densities in drier years could provide conditions for plague transmission (and UPD mortality) when moisture returns. Re-encounter rates were reduced for UPDs carrying at least one flea compared to UPDs with no detected fleas. These results support the hypothesis that reduced precipitation in the current year predisposes UPDs to flea parasitism. Our results also suggest a link between flea parasitism and UPD mortality. Given documented connections between flea parasitism and plague transmission, our results point toward an effect of flea parasitism on plague-related deaths for individual UPDs, a phenomenon rarely investigated in nature.

Fluorescent biomarkers demonstrate prospects for spreadable vaccines to control disease transmission in wild bats.

Vaccines that autonomously transfer among individuals have been proposed as a strategy to control infectious diseases within inaccessible wildlife populations. However, rates of vaccine spread and epidemiological efficacy in real-world systems remain elusive. Here, we investigate whether topical vaccines that transfer among individuals through social contacts can control vampire bat rabies-a medically and economically important zoonosis in Latin America. Field experiments in three Peruvian bat colonies, which used fluorescent biomarkers as a proxy for the bat-to-bat transfer and ingestion of an oral vaccine, revealed that vaccine transfer would increase population-level immunity up to 2.6 times beyond the same effort using conventional, non-spreadable vaccines. Mathematical models showed that observed levels of vaccine transfer would reduce the probability, size and duration of rabies outbreaks, even at low but realistically achievable levels of vaccine application. Models further predicted that existing vaccines provide substantial advantages over culling bats-the policy currently implemented in North, Central and South America. Linking field studies with biomarkers to mathematical models can inform how spreadable vaccines may combat pathogens of health and conservation concern before costly investments in vaccine design and testing.

Differential plague susceptibility in species and populations of prairie dogs.

Laboratory trials conducted over the past decade at U.S. Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center indicate that wild populations of prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) display different degrees of susceptibility to experimental challenge with fully virulent Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague. We evaluated patterns in prairie dog susceptibility to plague to determine whether the historical occurrence of plague at location of capture was related to survival times of prairie dogs challenged with Y. pestis. We found that black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) from South Dakota (captured prior to the detection of plague in the state), Gunnison's prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni) from Colorado, and Utah prairie dogs (Cynomys parvidens) from Utah were most susceptible to plague. Though the susceptibility of black-tailed prairie dogs in South Dakota compared with western locations supports our hypothesis regarding historical exposure, both Colorado and Utah prairie dogs have a long history of exposure to plague. It is possible that for these populations, genetic isolation/bottle necks have made them more susceptible to plague outbreaks.

Virally-vectored vaccine candidates against white-nose syndrome induce anti-fungal immune response in little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus).

White-nose syndrome (WNS) caused by the fungus, Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) has killed millions of North American hibernating bats. Currently, methods to prevent the disease are limited. We conducted two trials to assess potential WNS vaccine candidates in wild-caught Myotis lucifugus. In a pilot study, we immunized bats with one of four vaccine treatments or phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) as a control and challenged them with Pd upon transfer into hibernation chambers. Bats in one vaccine-treated group, that received raccoon poxviruses (RCN) expressing Pd calnexin (CAL) and serine protease (SP), developed WNS at a lower rate (1/10) than other treatments combined (14/23), although samples sizes were small. The results of a second similar trial provided additional support for this observation. Bats vaccinated orally or by injection with RCN-CAL and RCN-SP survived Pd challenge at a significantly higher rate (P = 0.01) than controls. Using RT-PCR and flow cytometry, combined with fluorescent in situ hybridization, we determined that expression of IFN-γ transcripts and the number of CD4 + T-helper cells transcribing this gene were elevated (P < 0.10) in stimulated lymphocytes from surviving vaccinees (n = 15) compared to controls (n = 3). We conclude that vaccination with virally-vectored Pd antigens induced antifungal immunity that could potentially protect bats against WNS.

Plague-Positive Mouse Fleas on Mice Before Plague Induced Die-Offs in Black-Tailed and White-Tailed Prairie Dogs.

Plague is a lethal zoonotic disease associated with rodents worldwide. In the western United States, plague outbreaks can decimate prairie dog (Cynomys spp.) colonies. However, it is unclear where the causative agent, Yersinia pestis, of this flea-borne disease is maintained between outbreaks, and what triggers plague-induced prairie dog die-offs. Less susceptible rodent hosts, such as mice, could serve to maintain the bacterium, transport infectious fleas across a colony, or introduce the pathogen to other colonies, possibly facilitating an outbreak. Here, we assess the potential role of two short-lived rodent species, North American deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and Northern grasshopper mice (Onychomys leucogaster) in plague dynamics on prairie dog colonies. We live-trapped short-lived rodents and collected their fleas on black-tailed (Cynomys ludovicianus, Montana and South Dakota), white-tailed (Cynomys leucurus, Utah and Wyoming), and Utah prairie dog colonies (Cynomys parvidens, Utah) annually, from 2013 to 2016. Plague outbreaks occurred on colonies of all three species. In all study areas, deer mouse abundance was high the year before plague-induced prairie dog die-offs, but mouse abundance per colony was not predictive of plague die-offs in prairie dogs. We did not detect Y. pestis DNA in mouse fleas during prairie dog die-offs, but in three cases we found it beforehand. On one white-tailed prairie dog colony, we detected Y. pestis positive fleas on one grasshopper mouse and several prairie dogs live-trapped 10 days later, months before visible declines and plague-confirmed mortality of prairie dogs. On one black-tailed prairie dog colony, we detected Y. pestis positive fleas on two deer mice 3 months before evidence of plague was detected in prairie dogs or their fleas and also well before a plague-induced die-off. These observations of plague positive fleas on mice could represent early spillover events of Y. pestis from prairie dogs or an unknown reservoir, or possible movement of infectious fleas by mice.

Local factors associated with on-host flea distributions on prairie dog colonies.

Outbreaks of plague, a flea-vectored bacterial disease, occur periodically in prairie dog populations in the western United States. In order to understand the conditions that are conducive to plague outbreaks and potentially predict spatial and temporal variations in risk, it is important to understand the factors associated with flea abundance and distribution that may lead to plague outbreaks. We collected and identified 20,041 fleas from 6,542 individual prairie dogs of four different species over a 4-year period along a latitudinal gradient from Texas to Montana. We assessed local climate and other factors associated with flea prevalence and abundance, as well as the incidence of plague outbreaks. Oropsylla hirsuta, a prairie dog specialist flea, and Pulex simulans, a generalist flea species, were the most common fleas found on our pairs. High elevation pairs in Wyoming and Utah had distinct flea communities compared with the rest of the study pairs. The incidence of prairie dogs with Yersinia pestis detections in fleas was low (n = 64 prairie dogs with positive fleas out of 5,024 samples from 4,218 individual prairie dogs). The results of our regression models indicate that many factors are associated with the presence of fleas. In general, flea abundance (number of fleas on hosts) is higher during plague outbreaks, lower when prairie dogs are more abundant, and reaches peak levels when climate and weather variables are at intermediate levels. Changing climate conditions will likely affect aspects of both flea and host communities, including population densities and species composition, which may lead to changes in plague dynamics. Our results support the hypothesis that local conditions, including host, vector, and environmental factors, influence the likelihood of plague outbreaks, and that predicting changes to plague dynamics under climate change scenarios will have to consider both host and vector responses to local factors.