Prospective study design and data analysis in UK Biobank.

Population-based prospective studies, such as UK Biobank, are valuable for generating and testing hypotheses about the potential causes of human disease. We describe how UK Biobank's study design, data access policies, and approaches to statistical analysis can help to minimize error and improve the interpretability of research findings, with implications for other population-based prospective studies being established worldwide.

Night Shift Work and Breast Cancer Incidence: Three Prospective Studies and Meta-analysis of Published Studies.

BACKGROUND: It has been proposed that night shift work could increase breast cancer incidence. A 2007 World Health Organization review concluded, mainly from animal evidence, that shift work involving circadian disruption is probably carcinogenic to humans. We therefore aimed to generate prospective epidemiological evidence on night shift work and breast cancer incidence. METHODS: Overall, 522 246 Million Women Study, 22 559 EPIC-Oxford, and 251 045 UK Biobank participants answered questions on shift work and were followed for incident cancer. Cox regression yielded multivariable-adjusted breast cancer incidence rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for night shift work vs no night shift work, and likelihood ratio tests for interaction were used to assess heterogeneity. Our meta-analyses combined these and relative risks from the seven previously published prospective studies (1.4 million women in total), using inverse-variance weighted averages of the study-specific log RRs. RESULTS: In the Million Women Study, EPIC-Oxford, and UK Biobank, respectively, 673, 28, and 67 women who reported night shift work developed breast cancer, and the RRs for any vs no night shift work were 1.00 (95% CI = 0.92 to 1.08), 1.07 (95% CI = 0.71 to 1.62), and 0.78 (95% CI = 0.61 to 1.00). In the Million Women Study, the RR for 20 or more years of night shift work was 1.00 (95% CI = 0.81 to 1.23), with no statistically significant heterogeneity by sleep patterns or breast cancer risk factors. Our meta-analysis of all 10 prospective studies included 4660 breast cancers in women reporting night shift work; compared with other women, the combined relative risks were 0.99 (95% CI = 0.95 to 1.03) for any night shift work, 1.01 (95% CI = 0.93 to 1.10) for 20 or more years of night shift work, and 1.00 (95% CI = 0.87 to 1.14) for 30 or more years. CONCLUSIONS: The totality of the prospective evidence shows that night shift work, including long-term shift work, has little or no effect on breast cancer incidence.

Characteristics of the Million Women Study participants who have and have not worked at night.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare the characteristics of women who had and had not worked at night in terms of their risk factors for common disease, indicators of general health, social activities, employment, and sleep behavior. METHODS: The Million Women Study is a large prospective cohort study of women's health in the United Kingdom with 1.3 million women recruited during 1996-2001 (aged 50-64 years) through 66 National Health Service breast screening centers. We analyzed the data from a random sample of 41 652 participants who, in 2009-2010, reported their history of night work. RESULTS: Of the participants, 1 in 8 women (13%) reported that they had ever worked at night and 1 in 50 (2%) reported working at night for ≥20 years. For 33 sociodemographic, behavioral, reproductive, and hormonal factors examined, 20 showed highly significant differences between "ever" and "never" night workers (P<0.0001); 12 showed significant trends by duration of night work (P<0.01). In particular, compared to women who had never worked at night, women who had worked at night were more likely to (i) be of lower socioeconomic status [the odds ratio (OR) for ever versus never night workers of being in the lowest third of socioeconomic status was 1.15, 99% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.06-1.25]; (ii) have ever used hormone replacement therapy (HRT) for the menopause (OR 1.43, 99% CI 1.33-1.55); (iii) be current smokers (OR 1.37, 99% CI 1.19-1.58); and (iv) be obese (OR 1.26, 99% CI 1.15-1.37). Compared to women who had never worked at night, women who had worked at night for ≥20 years were more likely to be (i) of lower socioeconomic status (OR 1.28, 99% CI 1.04-1.57); (ii) nulliparous (OR 1.47, 99% CI 1.12-1.91); (iii) current smokers (OR 1.63, 99% CI 1.18-2.25); and (iv) obese (OR 1.55, 99% CI 1.25-1.93). Former night workers were more likely than never night workers to report a range of sleep disturbances, including poor quality of sleep (OR 1.15, 99% CI 1.01-1.31) and having to take medication to sleep (OR 1.35, 99% CI 1.15-1.60). CONCLUSIONS: Women who reported having worked at night were substantially different from those who reporting never having worked at night and many of the differences would put "ever night workers" at increased risks of cancer, vascular disease, and many other common conditions.

Fruit and vegetable intake and mortality from ischaemic heart disease: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Heart study.

AIMS: A higher intake of fruits and vegetables has been associated with a lower risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but there is some uncertainty about the interpretation of this association. The objective was to assess the relation between fruit and vegetable intake and risk of mortality from IHD in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Heart study. METHODS AND RESULTS: After an average of 8.4 years of follow-up, there were 1636 deaths from IHD among 313 074 men and women without previous myocardial infarction or stroke from eight European countries. Participants consuming at least eight portions (80 g each) of fruits and vegetables a day had a 22% lower risk of fatal IHD [relative risk (RR) = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65-0.95] compared with those consuming fewer than three portions a day. After calibration of fruit and vegetable intake to account for differences in dietary assessment between the participating centres, a one portion (80 g) increment in fruit and vegetable intake was associated with a 4% lower risk of fatal IHD (RR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.92-1.00, P for trend = 0.033). CONCLUSION: Results from this large observational study suggest that a higher intake of fruits and vegetables is associated with a reduced risk of IHD mortality. Whether this association is causal and, if so, the biological mechanism(s) by which fruits and vegetables operate to lower IHD risks remains unclear.

Fluid intake and the risk of urothelial cell carcinomas in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

Results from previous studies investigating the association between fluid intake and urothelial cell carcinomas (UCC) are inconsistent. We evaluated this association among 233,236 subjects in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), who had adequate baseline information on water and total fluid intake. During a mean follow-up of 9.3 years, 513 first primary UCC occurred. At recruitment, habitual fluid intake was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire. Multivariable hazard ratios were estimated using Cox regression stratified by age, sex and center and adjusted for energy intake, smoking status, duration of smoking and lifetime intensity of smoking. When using the lowest tertile of intake as reference, total fluid intake was not associated with risk of all UCC (HR 1.12; 95%CI 0.86-1.45, p-trend = 0.42) or with risk of prognostically high-risk UCC (HR 1.28; 95%CI 0.85-1.93, p-trend = 0.27) or prognostically low-risk UCC (HR 0.93; 95%CI 0.65-1.33, p-trend = 0.74). No associations were observed between risk of UCC and intake of water, coffee, tea and herbal tea and milk and other dairy beverages. For prognostically low-risk UCC suggestions of an inverse association with alcoholic beverages and of a positive association with soft drinks were seen. Increased risks were found for all UCC and prognostically low-risk UCC with higher intake of fruit and vegetable juices. In conclusion, total usual fluid intake is not associated with UCC risk in EPIC. The relationships observed for some fluids may be due to chance, but further investigation of the role of all types of fluid is warranted.

Hip fracture risk in relation to vitamin D supplementation and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D supplementation for fracture prevention is widespread despite conflicting interpretation of relevant randomised controlled trial (RCT) evidence. This study summarises quantitatively the current evidence from RCTs and observational studies regarding vitamin D, parathyroid hormone (PTH) and hip fracture risk. METHODS: We undertook separate meta-analyses of RCTs examining vitamin D supplementation and hip fracture, and observational studies of serum vitamin D status (25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) level), PTH and hip fracture. Results from RCTs were combined using the reported hazard ratios/relative risks (RR). Results from case-control studies were combined using the ratio of 25(OH)D and PTH measurements of hip fracture cases compared with controls. Original published studies of vitamin D, PTH and hip fracture were identified through PubMed and Web of Science databases, searches of reference lists and forward citations of key papers. RESULTS: The seven eligible RCTs identified showed no significant difference in hip fracture risk in those randomised to cholecalciferol or ergocalciferol supplementation versus placebo/control (RR = 1.13[95%CI 0.98-1.29]; 801 cases), with no significant difference between trials of <800 IU/day and > or = 800 IU/day. The 17 identified case-control studies found 33% lower serum 25(OH)D levels in cases compared to controls, based on 1903 cases. This difference was significantly greater in studies with population-based compared to hospital-based controls (chi(2)(1) (heterogeneity) = 51.02, p < 0.001) and significant heterogeneity was present overall (chi(2)(16) (heterogeneity) = 137.9, p < 0.001). Serum PTH levels in hip fracture cases did not differ significantly from controls, based on ten case-control studies with 905 cases (chi(2)(9) (heterogeneity) = 149.68, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Neither higher nor lower dose vitamin D supplementation prevented hip fracture. Randomised and observational data on vitamin D and hip fracture appear to differ. The reason for this is unclear; one possible explanation is uncontrolled confounding in observational studies. Post-fracture PTH levels are unrelated to hip fracture risk.

Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1), IGF binding protein 3 (IGFBP3), and breast cancer risk: pooled individual data analysis of 17 prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) stimulates mitosis and inhibits apoptosis. Some published results have shown an association between circulating IGF1 and breast-cancer risk, but it has been unclear whether this relationship is consistent or whether it is modified by IGF binding protein 3 (IGFBP3), menopausal status, oestrogen receptor status or other factors. The relationship of IGF1 (and IGFBP3) with breast-cancer risk factors is also unclear. The Endogenous Hormones and Breast Cancer Collaborative Group was established to analyse pooled individual data from prospective studies to increase the precision of the estimated associations of endogenous hormones with breast-cancer risk. METHODS: Individual data on prediagnostic IGF1 and IGFBP3 concentrations were obtained from 17 prospective studies in 12 countries. The associations of IGF1 with risk factors for breast cancer in controls were examined by calculating geometric mean concentrations in categories of these factors. The odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs of breast cancer associated with increasing IGF1 concentrations were estimated by conditional logistic regression in 4790 cases and 9428 matched controls, with stratification by study, age at baseline, and date of baseline. All statistical tests were two-sided, and a p value of less than 0.05 was considered significant. FINDINGS: IGF1 concentrations, adjusted for age, were positively associated with height and age at first pregnancy, inversely associated with age at menarche and years since menopause, and were higher in moderately overweight women and moderate alcohol consumers than in other women. The OR for breast cancer for women in the highest versus the lowest fifth of IGF1 concentration was 1.28 (95% CI 1.14-1.44; p<0.0001). This association was not altered by adjusting for IGFBP3, and did not vary significantly by menopausal status at blood collection. The ORs for a difference in IGF1 concentration between the highest and lowest fifth were 1.38 (95% CI 1.14-1.68) for oestrogen-receptor-positive tumours and 0.80 (0.57-1.13) for oestrogen-receptor-negative tumours (p for heterogeneity=0.007). INTERPRETATION: Circulating IGF1 is positively associated with breast-cancer risk. The association is not substantially modified by IGFBP3, and does not differ markedly by menopausal status, but seems to be confined to oestrogen-receptor-positive tumours. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Consumption of vegetables and fruit and the risk of bladder cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

Previous epidemiologic studies found inconsistent associations between vegetables and fruit consumption and the risk of bladder cancer. We therefore investigated the association between vegetable and fruit consumption and the risk of bladder cancer among participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Data on food consumption and complete follow-up for cancer occurrence was available for a total of 478,533 participants, who were recruited in 10 European countries. Estimates of rate ratios were obtained by Cox proportional hazard models, stratified by age at recruitment, gender and study centre, and adjusted for total energy intake, smoking status, duration of smoking and lifetime intensity of smoking. A calibration study in a subsample was used to control for dietary measurement errors. After a mean follow-up of 8.7 years, 1015 participants were newly diagnosed with bladder cancer. Increments of 100 g/day in fruit and vegetable consumption combined did not affect bladder cancer risk (i.e., calibrated HR = 0.98; 95%CI: 0.95-1.01). Borderline statistically significant lower bladder cancer risks were found among never smokers with increased consumption of fruit and vegetables combined (HR = 0.94 95%CI: 0.87-1.00 with increments of 100 g/day; calibrated HR = 0.92 95%CI 0.79-1.06) and increased consumption of apples and pears (hard fruit; calibrated HR = 0.90 95%CI: 0.82-0.98 with increments of 25 g/day). For none of the associations a statistically significant interaction with smoking status was found. Our findings do not support an effect of fruit and vegetable consumption, combined or separately, on bladder cancer risk.

Reproductive history and pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in a cohort of postmenopausal women.

There is inconsistent evidence about the effect of reproductive history on women's risk of pancreatic cancer. In the Million Women Study, a prospective cohort of middle-aged women in the United Kingdom, we examined associations between reproductive history and pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality, controlling for age, socioeconomic status, geographic region, body mass index, smoking, and history of diabetes. During 7.1 million person-years of follow-up in 995,192 postmenopausal women, there were 1,182 incident pancreatic cancers. Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality did not vary significantly with age at menarche, number of children, age at first birth, breast-feeding, type of menopause, age at menopause, or time since menopause. Any effect of reproductive history and pancreatic cancer risk in women is likely to be weak, if it exists at all.

A prospective analysis of the association between macronutrient intake and renal cell carcinoma in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

Previous case-control studies have suggested that a high intake of animal foods and its associated nutrients are associated with an increased risk of renal cell carcinoma, although data from prospective studies are limited. We report here on the relationship between macronutrient intake and renal cell carcinoma incidence among 435,293 participants enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association of dietary intake of fat, protein, carbohydrate, fiber and cholesterol and risk of renal cell carcinoma adjusted for age, sex, center, height, body mass index, physical activity, education, smoking, menopausal status, alcohol and energy intake. During an average 8.8 years of follow-up, 507 renal cell carcinoma cases occurred. Risk of renal cell carcinoma was not associated with macronutrient intake, including nutrients derived from animal sources. Our results indicate that macronutrient intake is not associated with risk of renal cell carcinoma in this cohort of European men and women.

Association between endogenous plasma hormone concentrations and fracture risk in men and women: the EPIC-Oxford prospective cohort study.

Sex steroids have an important role in bone health, however previous studies on fracture risk have been carried out in older populations. The EPIC-Oxford study is a prospective cohort of men and women living in the UK. Five years after recruitment, participants self-reported previous fractures. Sex steroid concentrations (plasma estradiol, testosterone and sex hormone binding globulin) were measured in 436 cases (155 men, 46 premenopausal women and 235 postmenopausal women) with an incident fracture and 868 matched controls. Fracture risk was inversely related to concentrations of estradiol among men (RR for a doubling of estradiol 0.35, 95% CI 0.44-0.96) but there was no association between fracture risk and testosterone levels. There were no clear associations between fracture risk and hormone levels among postmenopausal women, however there was suggestion of an inverse association for both estradiol and testosterone as the RR in the highest compared with the lowest tertile for estradiol was 0.74 (95% CI 0.46, 1.18) and testosterone was 0.75 (95% CI 0.49, 1.16). Among premenopausal women fracture risk was inversely associated with levels of testosterone (RR for doubling of testosterone 0.46, 95% CI 0.26-0.81), with no association between estradiol and fracture risk. SHBG was not associated with risk of fracture among either men or women. In summary, this study finds evidence of an inverse association between endogenous estradiol and risk of fracture in men, and between endogenous testosterone and risk of fracture in premenopausal women but no clear associations among postmenopausal women.

Serum vitamin D and risk of prostate cancer in a case-control analysis nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

Results from the majority of studies show little association between circulating concentrations of vitamin D and prostate cancer risk, a finding that has not been demonstrated in a wider European population, however. The authors examined whether vitamin D concentrations were associated with prostate cancer risk in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (1994-2000). Serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D were measured in 652 prostate cancer cases matched to 752 controls from 7 European countries after a median follow-up time of 4.1 years. Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios for prostate cancer risk in relation to serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D after standardizing for month of blood collection and adjusting for covariates. No significant association was found between 25-hydroxyvitamin D and risk of prostate cancer (highest vs. lowest quintile: odds ratio = 1.28, 95% confidence interval: 0.88, 1.88; P for trend = 0.188). Subgroup analyses showed no significant heterogeneity by cancer stage or grade, age at diagnosis, body mass index, time from blood collection to diagnosis, or calcium intake. In summary, the results of this large nested case-control study provide no evidence in support of a protective effect of circulating concentrations of vitamin D on the risk of prostate cancer.

Smoking and risk for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: analysis of the EPIC cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Cigarette smoking has been reported as "probable" risk factor for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), a poorly understood disease in terms of aetiology. The extensive longitudinal data of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) were used to evaluate age-specific mortality rates from ALS and the role of cigarette smoking on the risk of dying from ALS. METHODS: A total of 517,890 healthy subjects were included, resulting in 4,591,325 person-years. ALS cases were ascertained through death certificates. Cox hazard models were built to investigate the role of smoking on the risk of ALS, using packs/years and smoking duration to study dose-response. RESULTS: A total of 118 subjects died from ALS, resulting in a crude mortality rate of 2.69 per 100,000/year. Current smokers at recruitment had an almost two-fold increased risk of dying from ALS compared to never smokers (HR = 1.89, 95% C.I. 1.14-3.14), while former smokers at the time of enrollment had a 50% increased risk (HR = 1.48, 95% C.I. 0.94-2.32). The number of years spent smoking increased the risk of ALS (p for trend = 0.002). Those who smoked more than 33 years had more than a two-fold increased risk of ALS compared with never smokers (HR = 2.16, 95% C.I. 1.33-3.53). Conversely, the number of years since quitting smoking was associated with a decreased risk of ALS compared with continuing smoking. INTERPRETATION: These results strongly support the hypothesis of a role of cigarette smoking in aetiology of ALS. We hypothesize that this could occur through lipid peroxidation via formaldehyde exposure.

Mortality in British vegetarians: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Oxford).

BACKGROUND: Few prospective studies have examined the mortality of vegetarians. OBJECTIVE: We present results on mortality among vegetarians and nonvegetarians in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Oxford). DESIGN: We used a prospective study of men and women recruited throughout the United Kingdom in the 1990s. RESULTS: Among 64,234 participants aged 20-89 y for whom diet group was known, 2965 had died before age 90 by 30 June 2007. The death rates of participants are much lower than average for the United Kingdom. The standardized mortality ratio for all causes of death was 52% (95% CI: 50%, 54%) and was identical in vegetarians and in nonvegetarians. Comparing vegetarians with meat eaters among the 47,254 participants who had no prevalent cardiovascular disease or malignant cancer at recruitment, the death rate ratios adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and alcohol consumption were 0.81 (95% CI: 0.57, 1.16) for ischemic heart disease and 1.03 (95% CI: 0.90, 1.16) for all causes of death. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality of both the vegetarians and the nonvegetarians in this study is low compared with national rates. Within the study, mortality from circulatory diseases and all causes is not significantly different between vegetarians and meat eaters, but the study is not large enough to exclude small or moderate differences for specific causes of death, and more research on this topic is required.

Cancer incidence in vegetarians: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Oxford).

BACKGROUND: Few prospective studies have examined cancer incidence among vegetarians. OBJECTIVE: We report cancer incidence among vegetarians and nonvegetarians in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Oxford (EPIC-Oxford) study. DESIGN: This was a prospective study of 63,550 men and women recruited throughout the United Kingdom in the 1990s. Cancer incidence was followed through nationwide cancer registries. RESULTS: The standardized incidence ratio for all malignant neoplasms for all participants was 72% (95% CI: 69%, 75%). The standardized incidence ratios for colorectal cancer were 84% (95% CI: 73%, 95%) among nonvegetarians and 102% (95% CI: 80%, 129%) among vegetarians. In a comparison of vegetarians with meat eaters and after adjustment for age, sex, and smoking, the incidence rate ratio for all malignant neoplasms was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.80, 1.00). The incidence rate ratio for colorectal cancer in vegetarians compared with meat eaters was 1.39 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.91). CONCLUSIONS: The overall cancer incidence rates of both the vegetarians and the nonvegetarians in this study are low compared with national rates. Within the study, the incidence of all cancers combined was lower among vegetarians than among meat eaters, but the incidence of colorectal cancer was higher in vegetarians than in meat eaters.

Factors associated with incident and fatal pancreatic cancer in a cohort of middle-aged women.

Risk factors for pancreatic cancer, other than smoking and diabetes, are not well-established, especially for women. In a cohort of 1.3 million middle-aged women, followed for 9.2 million person-years for cancer incidence and 11.5 million person-years for mortality, there were 1,338 incident pancreatic cancer cases and 1,710 deaths from the disease. Using proportional hazards models, we calculated adjusted relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by smoking, height, body mass index (BMI), alcohol consumption, physical activity and history of diabetes. Pancreatic cancer incidence was greater in current than never smokers (RR 2.39, CI 2.10-2.73), the risk increasing with the number of cigarettes smoked. The incidence of pancreatic cancer also increased with increasing BMI (RR 1.34, CI 1.13-1.57 for BMI >or= 30 vs. 22.5-25 kg/m(2)), and with a history of diabetes (RR 1.58, CI 1.22-2.03, with vs. without such a history). These factors were also associated with increased mortality from pancreatic cancer. Height, alcohol consumption and physical activity showed little or no association with pancreatic cancer risk.

Plasma selenium concentration and prostate cancer risk: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

BACKGROUND: Some evidence indicates that a low selenium intake may be associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the association of plasma selenium concentration with subsequent prostate cancer risk and to examine this association by stage and grade of disease and other factors. DESIGN: A nested case-control study was performed among men in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). The association between plasma selenium concentration and prostate cancer risk was assessed in 959 men with incident prostate cancer and 1059 matched controls. RESULTS: Overall, plasma selenium concentration was not associated with prostate cancer risk; the multivariate relative risk for men in the highest fifth of selenium concentration compared with the lowest fifth was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.70, 1.31; P for trend = 0.25). There were no significant differences in the association of plasma selenium with risk when analyzed by stage or grade of disease. Similarly, the association of selenium with risk did not differ by smoking status or by plasma alpha- or gamma-tocopherol concentration. CONCLUSION: Plasma selenium concentration was not associated with prostate cancer risk in this large cohort of European men.

Insulin-like growth factors, their binding proteins, and prostate cancer risk: analysis of individual patient data from 12 prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: Some, but not all, published results have shown an association between circulating blood levels of some insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and their binding proteins (IGFBPs) and the subsequent risk for prostate cancer. PURPOSE: To assess the association between levels of IGFs and IGFBPs and the subsequent risk for prostate cancer. DATA SOURCES: Studies identified in PubMed, Web of Science, and CancerLit. STUDY SELECTION: The principal investigators of all studies that published data on circulating concentrations of sex steroids, IGFs, or IGFBPs and prostate cancer risk using prospectively collected blood samples were invited to collaborate. DATA EXTRACTION: Investigators provided individual participant data on circulating concentrations of IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-II, and IGFBP-III and participant characteristics to a central data set in Oxford, United Kingdom. DATA SYNTHESIS: The study included data on 3700 men with prostate cancer and 5200 control participants. On average, case patients were 61.5 years of age at blood collection and received a diagnosis of prostate cancer 5 years after blood collection. The greater the serum IGF-I concentration, the greater the subsequent risk for prostate cancer (odds ratio [OR] in the highest vs. lowest quintile, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.19 to 1.60]; P < 0.001 for trend). Neither IGF-II nor IGFBP-II concentrations were associated with prostate cancer risk, but statistical power was limited. Insulin-like growth factor I and IGFBP-III were correlated (r = 0.58), and although IGFBP-III concentration seemed to be associated with prostate cancer risk, this was secondary to its association with IGF-I levels. Insulin-like growth factor I concentrations seemed to be more positively associated with low-grade than high-grade disease; otherwise, the association between IGFs and IGFBPs and prostate cancer risk had no statistically significant heterogeneity related to stage or grade of disease, time between blood collection and diagnosis, age and year of diagnosis, prostate-specific antigen level at recruitment, body mass index, smoking, or alcohol intake. LIMITATIONS: Insulin-like growth factor concentrations were measured in only 1 sample for each participant, and the laboratory methods to measure IGFs differed in each study. Not all patients had disease stage or grade information, and the diagnosis of prostate cancer may differ among the studies. CONCLUSION: High circulating IGF-I concentrations are associated with a moderately increased risk for prostate cancer.

Circulating concentrations of folate and vitamin B12 in relation to prostate cancer risk: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study.

BACKGROUND: Determinants of one-carbon metabolism, such as folate and vitamin B(12), have been implicated in cancer development. Previous studies have not provided conclusive evidence for the importance of circulating concentrations of folate and vitamin B(12) in prostate cancer etiology. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between prostate cancer risk and circulating concentrations of folate and vitamin B(12) in a large prospective cohort. METHODS: We analyzed circulating concentrations of folate and vitamin B(12) in 869 cases and 1,174 controls, individually matched on center, age, and date of recruitment, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Relative risks (RR) for prostate cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: Overall, no significant associations were observed for circulating concentrations of folate (P(trend) = 0.62) or vitamin B(12) (P(trend) = 0.21) with prostate cancer risk. RRs for a doubling in folate and vitamin B(12) concentrations were 1.03 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.92-1.16] and 1.12 (95% CI, 0.94-1.35), respectively. In the subgroup of cases diagnosed with advanced stage prostate cancer, elevated concentrations of vitamin B(12) were associated with increased risk (RR for a doubling in concentration, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.05-2.72, P(trend) = 0.03). No other subgroup analyses resulted in a statistically significant association. CONCLUSION: This study does not provide strong support for an association between prostate cancer risk and circulating concentrations of folate or vitamin B(12). Elevated concentrations of vitamin B(12) may be associated with an increased risk for advanced stage prostate cancer, but this association requires examination in other large prospective studies.

Physical activity and fracture risk: a prospective study of 1898 incident fractures among 34,696 British men and women.

Regular physical activity is believed to have a beneficial effect on bone health but may also increase the risk of fractures by increasing the incidence of injury. We examined the association between physical activity and fracture risk in a prospective study of self-reported incident fractures among 34 696 men and women aged 20 to 89 years in the United Kingdom. Over an average of 5.2 years of follow-up, 343 men and 1555 women reported one or more fractures. For the 72% of fractures caused by a fall, the only significant association with physical activity was the lower fracture rate among women with a standing occupation compared with women in sedentary or no employment [incidence rate ratio, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.69-0.95)]. There was a strong positive association between bicycling and fracture risk: P < 0.001 for trend for both sexes. Regular participation in exercise and sports other than walking and bicycling was also associated with an increased fracture risk, and fracture rates were significantly higher for male manual workers compared with men in sedentary or no employment. These positive associations of physical activity with fracture risk applied primarily to fractures not caused by a fall. The relatively low fracture risk among women with a standing occupation might be the result of a beneficial effect of weight-bearing exercise. The markedly increased risk of fractures associated with bicycling, and the moderately increased risk associated with other exercise and sports, are probably the result of an increased incidence of injury.