Metapopulation dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a small-scale Amazonian society.

The severity of infectious disease outbreaks is governed by patterns of human contact, which vary by geography, social organization, mobility, access to technology and healthcare, economic development, and culture. Whereas globalized societies and urban centers exhibit characteristics that can heighten vulnerability to pandemics, small-scale subsistence societies occupying remote, rural areas may be buffered. Accordingly, voluntary collective isolation has been proposed as one strategy to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 and other pandemics on small-scale Indigenous populations with minimal access to healthcare infrastructure. To assess the vulnerability of such populations and the viability of interventions such as voluntary collective isolation, we simulate and analyze the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection among Amazonian forager-horticulturalists in Bolivia using a stochastic network metapopulation model parameterized with high-resolution empirical data on population structure, mobility, and contact networks. Our model suggests that relative isolation offers little protection at the population level (expected approximately 80% cumulative incidence), and more remote communities are not conferred protection via greater distance from outside sources of infection, due to common features of small-scale societies that promote rapid disease transmission such as high rates of travel and dense social networks. Neighborhood density, central household location in villages, and household size greatly increase the individual risk of infection. Simulated interventions further demonstrate that without implausibly high levels of centralized control, collective isolation is unlikely to be effective, especially if it is difficult to restrict visitation between communities as well as travel to outside areas. Finally, comparison of model results to empirical COVID-19 outcomes measured via seroassay suggest that our theoretical model is successful at predicting outbreak severity at both the population and community levels. Taken together, these findings suggest that the social organization and relative isolation from urban centers of many rural Indigenous communities offer little protection from pandemics and that standard control measures, including vaccination, are required to counteract effects of tight-knit social structures characteristic of small-scale populations.

High prevalence of sternal foramina in indigenous Bolivians compared to Midwest Americans and indigenous North Americans (sternal foramina in indigenous Bolivians).

The sternal foramen, usually an asymptomatic osteological defect, can lead to catastrophic consequences if not recognized prior to certain medical procedures. This study reports the prevalence of a sternal foramen in two South Amerindian populations compared with other published populations. We evaluated the presence of sternal foramina using thoracic computed tomography scans of 1334 (48% female) participants from two indigenous populations of Bolivia (n = 900 Tsimane, 434 Moseten). The prevalence of sternal foramina was compared to two U.S. populations of similar sex/age distribution (n = 572 Midwest Americans, 131 self-identified Native North Americans) via similar CT scans. A sternal foramen was significantly more common in the two Bolivian populations (prevalence ranging from 12.8 to 13.4%), compared to 4.4-5.1% in the two U.S. groups, consistent with prior estimates in studies from industrialized populations. Males had higher frequency of a sternal foramen compared to females in each of the four groups (OR = 1.904, 95% CI: 1.418-2.568, p < 0.001). Age was not associated with sternal foramen presence. These data show both a higher rate of sternal foramina in the South Amerindian populations versus comparator populations in North America and the highest rate of any studied living population. Although it is not possible to determine from our data the relative contribution of genetics versus early life or environmental causes to the higher rates of sternal foramen, we note that small prior studies have likewise demonstrated a higher prevalence in lower income countries. Further determination of the contributing factors warrants greater investigation and research.

Very Low Prevalence and Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation among Bolivian Forager-Farmers.

Background: Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia in post-industrialized populations. Older age, hypertension, obesity, chronic inflammation, and diabetes are significant atrial fibrillation risk factors, suggesting that modern urban environments may promote atrial fibrillation. Objective: Here we assess atrial fibrillation prevalence and incidence among tropical horticulturalists of the Bolivian Amazon with high levels of physical activity, a lean diet, and minimal coronary atherosclerosis, but also high infectious disease burden and associated inflammation. Methods: Between 2005-2019, 1314 Tsimane aged 40-94 years (52% female) and 534 Moseten Amerindians aged 40-89 years (50% female) underwent resting 12-lead electrocardiograms to assess atrial fibrillation prevalence. For atrial fibrillation incidence assessment, 1059 (81% of original sample) Tsimane and 310 Moseten (58%) underwent additional ECGs (mean time to follow up 7.0, 1.8 years, respectively). Findings: Only one (male) of 1314 Tsimane (0.076%) and one (male) of 534 Moseten (0.187%) demonstrated atrial fibrillation at baseline. There was one new (female) Tsimane case in 7395 risk years for the 1059 participants with >1 ECG (incidence rate = 0.14 per 1,000 risk years). No new cases were detected among Moseten, based on 542 risk years. Conclusion: Tsimane and Moseten show the lowest levels of atrial fibrillation ever reported, 1/20 to ~1/6 of rates in high-income countries. These findings provide additional evidence that a subsistence lifestyle with high levels of physical activity, and a diet low in processed carbohydrates and fat is cardioprotective, despite frequent infection-induced inflammation. Findings suggest that atrial fibrillation is a modifiable lifestyle disease rather than an inevitable feature of cardiovascular aging.

Rapidly declining body temperature in a tropical human population.

Normal human body temperature (BT) has long been considered to be 37.0°C. Yet, BTs have declined over the past two centuries in the United States, coinciding with reductions in infection and increasing life expectancy. The generality of and reasons behind this phenomenon have not yet been well studied. Here, we show that Bolivian forager-farmers (n = 17,958 observations of 5481 adults age 15+ years) inhabiting a pathogen-rich environment exhibited higher BT when first examined in the early 21st century (~37.0°C). BT subsequently declined by ~0.05°C/year over 16 years of socioeconomic and epidemiological change to ~36.5°C by 2018. As predicted, infections and other lifestyle factors explain variation in BT, but these factors do not account for the temporal declines. Changes in physical activity, body composition, antibiotic usage, and thermal environment are potential causes of the temporal decline.

Voluntary collective isolation as a best response to COVID-19 for indigenous populations? A case study and protocol from the Bolivian Amazon.

Indigenous communities worldwide share common features that make them especially vulnerable to the complications of and mortality from COVID-19. They also possess resilient attributes that can be leveraged to promote prevention efforts. How can indigenous communities best mitigate potential devastating effects of COVID-19? In Bolivia, where nearly half of all citizens claim indigenous origins, no specific guidelines have been outlined for indigenous communities inhabiting native communal territories. In this Public Health article, we describe collaborative efforts, as anthropologists, physicians, tribal leaders, and local officials, to develop and implement a multiphase COVID-19 prevention and containment plan focused on voluntary collective isolation and contact-tracing among Tsimane forager-horticulturalists in the Bolivian Amazon. Phase 1 involves education, outreach, and preparation, and phase 2 focuses on containment, patient management, and quarantine. Features of this plan might be exported and adapted to local circumstances elsewhere to prevent widespread mortality in indigenous communities.

Coronary atherosclerosis in indigenous South American Tsimane: a cross-sectional cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Conventional coronary artery disease risk factors might potentially explain at least 90% of the attributable risk of coronary artery disease. To better understand the association between the pre-industrial lifestyle and low prevalence of coronary artery disease risk factors, we examined the Tsimane, a Bolivian population living a subsistence lifestyle of hunting, gathering, fishing, and farming with few cardiovascular risk factors, but high infectious inflammatory burden. METHODS: We did a cross-sectional cohort study including all individuals who self-identified as Tsimane and who were aged 40 years or older. Coronary atherosclerosis was assessed by coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring done with non-contrast CT in Tsimane adults. We assessed the difference between the Tsimane and 6814 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). CAC scores higher than 100 were considered representative of significant atherosclerotic disease. Tsimane blood lipid and inflammatory biomarkers were obtained at the time of scanning, and in some patients, longitudinally. FINDINGS: Between July 2, 2014, and Sept 10, 2015, 705 individuals, who had data available for analysis, were included in this study. 596 (85%) of 705 Tsimane had no CAC, 89 (13%) had CAC scores of 1-100, and 20 (3%) had CAC scores higher than 100. For individuals older than age 75 years, 31 (65%) Tsimane presented with a CAC score of 0, and only four (8%) had CAC scores of 100 or more, a five-fold lower prevalence than industrialised populations (p≤0·0001 for all age categories of MESA). Mean LDL and HDL cholesterol concentrations were 2·35 mmol/L (91 mg/dL) and 1·0 mmol/L (39·5 mg/dL), respectively; obesity, hypertension, high blood sugar, and regular cigarette smoking were rare. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein was elevated beyond the clinical cutoff of 3·0 mg/dL in 360 (51%) Tsimane participants. INTERPRETATION: Despite a high infectious inflammatory burden, the Tsimane, a forager-horticulturalist population of the Bolivian Amazon with few coronary artery disease risk factors, have the lowest reported levels of coronary artery disease of any population recorded to date. These findings suggest that coronary atherosclerosis can be avoided in most people by achieving a lifetime with very low LDL, low blood pressure, low glucose, normal body-mass index, no smoking, and plenty of physical activity. The relative contributions of each are still to be determined. FUNDING: National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health; St Luke's Hospital of Kansas City; and Paleocardiology Foundation.

Does blood pressure inevitably rise with age?: longitudinal evidence among forager-horticulturalists.

The rise in blood pressure with age is a major risk factor for cardiovascular and renal disease, stroke, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Age-related increases in blood pressure have been observed in almost every population, except among hunter-gatherers, farmers, and pastoralists. Here we tested for age-related increases in blood pressure among Tsimane forager-farmers. We also test whether lifestyle changes associated with modernization lead to higher blood pressure and a greater rate of age-related increase in blood pressure. We measured blood pressure longitudinally on 2248 adults age ≥ 20 years (n=6468 observations over 8 years). Prevalence of hypertension was 3.9% for women and 5.2% for men, although diagnosis of persistent hypertension based on multiple observations reduced prevalence to 2.9% for both sexes. Mixed-effects models revealed systolic, diastolic, and pulse blood pressure increases of 2.86 (P<0.001), 0.95 (P<0.001), and 1.95 mmHg (P<0.001) per decade for women and 0.91 (P<0.001), 0.93 (P<0.001), and -0.02 mmHg (P=0.93) for men, substantially lower than rates found elsewhere. Lifestyle factors, such as smoking and Spanish fluency, had minimal effect on mean blood pressure and no effect on age-related increases in blood pressure. Greater town proximity was associated with a lower age-related increase in pulse pressure. Effects of modernization were, therefore, deemed minimal among Tsimane, in light of their lean physique, active lifestyle, and protective diet.