RESUMEN
The sharp increase of COVID-19 cases in late 2020 has made Brazil the new epicenter of the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Novel SARS-CoV-2 lineages P.1 and P.2, first identified respectively in Manaus and Rio de Janeiro, have been associated with potentially higher transmission rates and antibody neutralization escape. In this study, we performed a whole-genome sequencing of 185 samples isolated from three out of the five Brazilian regions, including Amazonas (North region), Rio Grande do Norte, Paraiba and Bahia (Northeast region), and Rio de Janeiro (Southeast region) aiming to identify SARS-CoV-2 mutations that could be involved in the surge of COVID19 cases in Brazil. Here, we showed a widespread dispersion of P.1 and P.2 across Brazilian regions. Except for Manaus, P.2 was the predominant lineage identified country-wise. P.2 lineage was estimated to have originated in February, 2020 and has diverged into new clades. Interstate transmission of P.2 was detected since March, but reached its peak in December, 2020 and January, 2021. Transmission of P.1 was also high in December. P.1 origin was inferred to have happened in August 2020. We also confirmed the presence of the variant under investigation (VUI) NP13L, recently described in the southernmost region of Brazil, to have spread across the Northeastern states. P.1, P.2 and NP13L are descended from the ancient B.1.1.28 strain, although during the first phase of the pandemic in Brazil presence of B.1.1.33 strain was also reported. We investigate here the possible occurrence of a new variant of interest descending from B.1.1.33 that also carries the E484K mutation. Indeed, the recurrent report of many novel SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants in Brazil could be due to the absence of effective control measures resulting in high SARS-CoV2 transmission rates. Altogether, our findings provided a landscape of the critical state of SARS-CoV-2 across Brazil and confirm the need to sustain continuous sequencing of the SARS-CoV-2 isolates worldwide in order to early identify novel variants of interest and to monitor for vaccine effectiveness.
RESUMEN
Brazil currently has one of the fastest growing SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in the world. Due to limited available data, assessments of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on virus transmission and epidemic spread remain challenging. We investigate the impact of NPIs in Brazil using epidemiological, mobility and genomic data. Mobility-driven transmission models for Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro cities show that the reproduction number (Rt) reached below 1 following NPIs but slowly increased to values between 1 to 1.3 (1.0-1.6). Genome sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset from 21 of the 27 Brazilian states identified >100 international introductions of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. We estimate that three clades introduced from Europe emerged between 22 and 27 February 2020, and were already well-established before the implementation of NPIs and travel bans. During this first phase of the epidemic establishment of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil, we find that the virus spread mostly locally and within-state borders. Despite sharp decreases in national air travel during this period, we detected a 25% increase in the average distance travelled by air passengers during this time period. This coincided with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from large urban centers to the rest of the country. In conclusion, our results shed light on the role of large and highly connected populated centres in the rapid ignition and establishment of SARS-CoV-2, and provide evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in Brazil. One Sentence SummaryJoint analysis of genomic, mobility and epidemiological novel data provide unique insight into the spread and transmission of the rapidly evolving epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.
